灰色系统理论在人口发展预测中的应用

根据贵州省遵义市各个时期期末人口统计数据,应用灰色系统理论进行计算、预测分析,结果令人满意,为该市人口发展提供了必要的信息.     

一类具有隔离和接种的年龄结构的SIQR传染病模型分析

研究了一类具有隔离和接种的年龄结构SIQR传染病模型,利用特征线方法得到了基本再生数Ψ的具体表达式.证明了当Ψ<1时无病平衡解是局部渐近稳定和全局渐近稳定的;当Ψ>1时地方病平衡解存在且唯一.     

基于害虫防治的带有年龄结构和时滞的捕食-被捕食模型分析

研究了一个关于害虫防治的有脉冲效应以及年龄结构和时滞的捕食-被捕食模型,得到了害虫根除的周期解全局吸引以及系统持久的充分条件,同时证明了系统所有的解是一致最终有界的.这些结果能为害虫防治的实际操作提供一定的理论依据.     

服务业集聚和经济增长对我国城镇化影响的实证研究——基于半参数空间滞后模型

针对已有文献研究城镇化时忽视的服务业的空间集聚效应以及经济增长对人口城镇化的非线性关系的问题,文章根据第六次全国人口普查数据,利用半参数空间滞后模型实证研究了我国人口城镇化的影响因素。结果表明:(1)服务业的发展大力推动了我国区域人口城镇化发展,且它的影响强度明显高于工业化发展所带来的影响。服务业集聚效应对该省的人口城镇化具有促进作用,第二产业集聚对该省的人口城镇化的作用不显著。(2)经济欠发达地区(云贵川等)的经济增长对人口城镇化的促进作用较小。而多数位于中部和沿海经济较发达地区(福建、广州等)的经济增长显著促进了人口城镇化的发展。然而,在经济发达地区(如上海、北京、浙江)的经济增长对人口城镇化的促进效果明显开始减弱,甚至是负向的关系。(3)半参数空间滞后模型比普通参数模型具有更高的拟合优度和更丰富的结论,它能够有效刻画城镇化过程中空间相关性与非线性特征。     

Prisoner's Dilemma on Co-Evolving Networks without Strategy Update

We investigate the game theory in a structured population with the assumption that the evolution of network structure is far faster than that of strategy update. We find that the degree distribution for the finM network consists of two distinct parts： the low degree part which is contributed to by defectors and a broadband in the regime with high degree which is formed by cooperators. The structure of the final network and the final strategy pattern have also been numerically proved to be independent of the game parameters.     

Aerosol pollution in China： Present and future impact on environment

With its dense population, rapid economic growth and dramatic rate of urbanization, China is experiencing extreme air pollution problems. This is particularly the case in Central-Eastern China （CEC）, where the two major cities of Beijing and Tianjin are located, in the Yangtze-River Delta （YRD） with the city of Shanghai, and in the Pearl-River Delta （PRD） with the mega-city of Gnangzhou. Space observations show that the atmospheric aerosol load in these three regions is considerably higher than, for example, in the urbanized regions of Europe and North America. The high aerosol concentrations in these regions have raised many environmental problems, such as impact on human health, visibility, and climate changes. In this paper, several crucial issues regarding aerosol pollution in these highly populated regions （CEC, YRD, and PRD） are discussed, including （1） when the aerosol load starts to rapidly increase in these regions; （2） how the high aerosol concentrations affects the environment; and （3） what the potential consequences are under possible low aerosol load in these regions. Discussion on these crucial issues might lead to some insight for better understanding of the characterizations of aerosol pollution due to the rapid economical development in China.     

Kinetic Behaviors of Catalysis-Driven Growth of Three-Species Aggregates on Base of Exchange-Driven Aggregations

We propose a solvable aggregation model to mimic the evolution of population A, asset B, and the quantifiable resource C in a society. In this system, the population and asset aggregates themselves grow through selfexchanges with the rate kernels Kl（k,j） = K1kj and K2（h,j） = K2kj, respectively. The actions of the population and asset aggregations on the aggregation evolution of resource aggregates are described by the population-catalyzed monomer death of resource aggregates and asset-catalyzed monomer birth of resource aggregates with the rate kerne/s J1（k,j）=J1k and J2（k,j） = J2k, respectively. Meanwhile, the asset and resource aggregates conjunctly catalyze the monomer birth of population aggregates with the rate kernel I1 （k,i,j） = I1ki^μjη, and population and resource aggregates conjunctly catalyze the monomer birth of asset aggregates with the rate kernel /2（k, i, j） = I2ki^νj^η. The kinetic behaviors of species A, B, and C are investigated by means of the mean-field rate equation approach. The effects of the population-catalyzed death and asset-catalyzed birth on the evolution of resource aggregates based on the self-exchanges of population and asset appear in effective forms. The coefficients of the effective population-catalyzed death and the asset-catalyzed birth are expressed as J1e = J1/K1 and J2e= J2/K2, respectively. The aggregate size distribution of C species is found to be crucially dominated by the competition between the effective death and the effective birth. It satisfies the conventional scaling form, generalized scaling form, and modified scaling form in the cases of J1e〈J2e, J1e=J2e, and J1e〉J2e, respectively. Meanwhile, we also find the aggregate size distributions of populations and assets both fall into two distinct categories for different parameters μ,ν, and η： （i） When μ=ν=η=0 and μ=ν=η=1, the population and asset aggregates obey the generalized scaling forms; and （ii） When μ=ν=1,η=0, and μ=ν=η=1, the population and asset aggregates experience gelation transitions at finite times and the scaling forms break down.     

具有人口转变与人力资本的经济增长模型及仿真

建立数学模型探讨了人口转变与人力资本对经济增长的影响.将描述人口转变的倒U字型人口增长率函数和人均人力资本引入Solow模型,结合人均人力资本增长方程得到二维的动力系统.证明动力系统至少存在一个非零平衡点且当非零平衡点惟一时,动力系统的解是渐近稳定的,模型描述的经济具有渐近稳定的经济增长路径.通过数值仿真展现人口转变与人力资本对经济增长的影响.     

库车县经济发展、人口增长与耕地资源弹性关系的动态分析

人均耕地资源占有量较低，一直是库车县经济发展中不可忽视的主要问题之一，随着经济的发展和投资的增加，人均耕地资源将进一步减少，根据库车县建国以来的统计资料，系统分析库车县从20世纪70年代以来的发展、增加投资、人口增长与耕地资源之间的动态变化弹性关系，利用SPSS软件建立动态回归模型，提出了促进库车县耕地资源可持续利用的对策与措施。     

Hobson文科物理教材选载①——热力学第二定律

这里登的是原书第7章后几节.第7章讨论热力学第二定律.前4节讨论了热力学第二定律的3种表述形式和热机、熵等内容,在此基础上,下面讨论与之有关的4个社会问题:汽车、运输效率、热电厂和人口的爆炸性指数增长.各个序号如节号和插图号都是原来的序号.——秦克诚