R&D pipeline management: Task interdependencies and risk management

Maintaining a rich research and development (R&D) pipeline is the key to remaining competitive in many industrial sectors. Due to its nature, R&D activities are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, the modeling of which is compounded by the ability of the decision maker to alter the underlying process. In this paper, we present a multi-stage stochastic programming framework for R&D pipeline management, which demonstrates how essential considerations can be modeled in an efficient manner including: (i) the selection and scheduling of R&D tasks with general precedence constraints under pass/fail uncertainty, and (ii) resource planning decisions (expansion/contraction and outsourcing) for multiple resource types. Furthermore, we study interdependencies between tasks in terms of probability of success, resource usage and market impact. Finally, we explore risk management approaches, including novel formulations for value at risk and conditional value at risk.     

基于情景推演与网络图技术的应急处置模式研究

突发事件应急处置工作时间紧、任务重、压力大,要求工作人员分秒必争,传统的"兵来将挡,水来土淹"的应急处置模式已不再适用,时间压力要求以一种新型、高效的处置模式来代替传统模式.研究在有关突发事件情景演变的研究基础之上,结合项目计划与控制中的网络图技术,提出了一种基于情景推演与网络图技术的应急实时处置模式,确定了这种处置模式的流程.以2010年大连输油管道爆炸事件为例,对传统的处置模式与基于情景推演与网络图技术的应急处置模式做了比较分析,分析结果证明,基于情景推演与网络图技术的应急处置可有效节省时间45小时40分钟,这对于分秒必争的应急处置工作意义非常重大.     

油田供水管网管道内径反演方法研究

在对油田供水管网进行系统仿真计算时候,其数学模型都涉及到管网中各管段的内径、粗糙度等参数,这类参数的选取直接影响管网平差计算的精度.在管网运行多年后,其上述参数大都和原始设计参数相差较大,由于实际生产过程中不允许也不可能对管网中的管道管径进行测量,导致管网仿真计算数学模型与实际不符,使得仿真计算失去本来意义.为解决此问题,提出了一种运用部分测试数据对管网管道内径进行反演求解的方法.从数学方面证明了其求解方法可行性,实际算例计算结果表明,运用该方法可以使管网平差计算结果与测试结果很好的吻合.     

应用全概率公式研究输水管道系统的可靠性

文中采用网络分解法,以全概率公式为依据对设置连通管的输水管道系统的可靠性进行了分析,建立了设置连通管的输水管道系统的可靠性计算模型;计算表明,三通和输水干管的管段的可靠性变化是影响系统可靠性的敏感性因素.研究成果对于输水管道系统组件的选择、施工与维护管理,具有重要的指导意义.     

基于电磁超声的天然气管道机器人测控系统设计

分析了国内天然气管道现状及检测维护情况,针对目前天然气管道裂纹缺陷检测问题,采用电磁超声检测方法,并结合虚拟仪器技术,设计了天然气管道机器人测控系统。系统以PXI模块化仪器平台为核心,结合数据采集模块和运动控制模块构建了硬件平台,以LabVIEW编程语言为基础开发了人机交互软件平台。该系统能够控制机器人在管道内的运动,并可在管道内壁激励和接收超声导波。整个系统可靠性高、扩展性强、人机交互界面友好,满足了机器人管内电磁超声检测作业时的运动控制、数据采集及处理要求。     

Analysis of minimum specific energy consumption and optimal transport concentration of slurry pipeline transport systems

Slurry pipeline transport is widely used in several industrial processes. Calculating the specific power consumption (SPC) and determining the best working conditions are important for the design and operation of transportation systems. Based on the Shanghai Jiao Tong University high-concentration multi-sized slurry pressure drop (SJTU-HMSPD) pipeline-resistance-calculation model, the SJTU-SPC model for calculating the power required to transport a unit volume of solid materials over a unit pipeline length is established for a slurry transport system. The said system demonstrates a uniformity coefficient in the 1.26–7.98 range, median particle size of 0.075–4 mm, particle volume concentration of 10–60%, and pipeline diameter of 0.203–0.8 m. The results obtained were successfully verified against existing experimental data. The influence of parameters, such as particle-gradation uniformity coefficient, median particle size, pipe diameter, and particle volume concentration, on the SPC were analysed. The results revealed that the greater is the uniformity coefficient, the smaller is the minimum specific energy consumption and the larger the optimal transport concentration for a constant, median particle size slurry. As observed, the optimal transport concentration for broad-graded sand equalled approximately 48%. These results supplement the conclusions of existing research, indicating that the optimal transport concentration is approximately 30% and provides theoretical support for high concentration transportation of broad graded slurry.     

Wave-soil-pipe coupling effect on submarine pipeline on-bottom stability

Wave-soil-pipe coupling effect on the untrenched pipeline stability on sands is for the first time investigated experimentally. Tests are conducted in the Ushaped water tunnel, which generates an oscillatory flow, simulating the water particle movements with periodically changing direction under the wave action. Characteristic times and phases during the instability process are revealed. Linear relatiohship between Froude number and non-dimensional pipe weight is obtanied. Effects of initial embedment and loading history are observed. Test results between the wave-soil-pipe interaction and pipe-soil interaction under cyclic mechanical loading are compared. The mechanism is briefly discussed. For applying in the practical design, more extensive and systematic investigations are needed. The project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (19772057, 19772065) and by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZ951-A1-405-01)     

加剂彩南原油的流变性研究

由EVA、正构烷烃和表面活性剂复配了一种复合型降凝降粘剂CN，它具有较好的油溶性，通过最佳加剂条件筛选，彩南原油添加100ppm的CN，其凝固点下降13℃，低温表观粘度下降99％，降凝减粘效果显著。     

Using degradation models to assess pipeline life

Longitudinal inspections of thickness at particular locations along a pipeline provide useful information to assess the remaining life of the pipeline. In applications with different mechanisms of corrosion processes, we have observed various types of general degradation paths. We present two applications of fitting a degradation model to describe the corrosion initiation and growth behavior in a pipeline. We use a Bayesian approach for parameter estimation for the degradation model. The failure‐time and remaining lifetime distributions are derived from the degradation model, and we compute Bayesian estimates and credible intervals of the failure‐time and remaining lifetime distributions for both individual segments and for the entire pipeline circuit.