基于向后逐步回归模型的我国农机需求特征及影响因素研究

以2004-2014年数据为样本,以农机总动力为因变量,以农机购置补贴、农机价格、农机作业服务价格、农户人均纯收入、农产品价格、农业劳动力数量和农作物播种总面积为自变量构建了我国农机需求影响因素的回归方程,向后逐步回归结果表明:(1)除农作物播种总面积、农机作业服务价格、农产品价格之外,其余变量对农机总动力的影响均统计上显著;(2)农机购置补贴、农机价格指数、农户人均纯收入及农业劳动力四个变量对农机需求的弹性系数分别为0.027、-0.004、0.457、0.474。最后根据研究结果提出加大与落实农机购置补贴、规范农机价格、培育新型经营主体、加速土地规范流转等政策建议。     

基于质量分级的生鲜农产品供应链的定价与保鲜策略研究

为了有效降低生鲜农产品损耗,保障流通与销售过程中生鲜农产品的品质及安全,解决消费者对生鲜农产品品质及其新鲜度的高追求与生鲜农产品冷链物流成本过高导致保鲜投入不足之间的矛盾,文中以价格和新鲜度为市场需求的主要影响因素,分别在产销地均不分级、销地分级和产地分级三种质量分级模式下,构建了供应商和零售商的利润函数,采用stackelberg博弈求解得到各自的最优定价策略和最优保鲜策略.对不同质量分级模式下的定价策略和保鲜策略进行对比分析显示,产地分级模式下的定价策略有利于增加市场需求及市场主体的利润;产地分级模式下的保鲜策略在控制损耗的效果和控制保鲜的成本上都优于其他模式.     

Heuristic optimization methods for motion planning of autonomous agricultural vehicles

In this paper, two heuristic optimization techniques are tested and compared in the application of motion planning for autonomous agricultural vehicles: Simulated Annealing and Genetic Algorithms. Several preliminary experimentations are performed for both algorithms, so that the best neighborhood definitions and algorithm parameters are found. Then, the two tuned algorithms are run extensively, but for no more than 2000 cost function evaluations, as run-time is the critical factor for this application. The comparison of the two algorithms showed that the Simulated Annealing algorithm achieves the better performance and outperforms the Genetic Algorithm. The final optimum found by the Simulated Annealing algorithm is considered to be satisfactory for the specific motion planning application.     

Use of Luminescence Spectroscopy in Clinical and Biological Analysis

Analysis of a sample of clinical or biological origin often requires assay procedures that are rapid, sensitive, selective, and permit the use of microsamples. These constraints have prompted the clinical chemist and analytical biochemist to use many modern tools of the analytical chemist—including atomic absorption spectroscopy, gas chromatography, and luminescence spectroscopy. This review considers the impact of molecular luminescence spectroscopy (fluorescence and phosphorescence) in the analysis of samples of clinical and biological interest. We attempt to outline those procedures and applications of luminescence spectroscopy which are well-established and also consider the promising new developments which should permit wide levels of acceptance in the near future.     

中国农业科技进步贡献率的测度及原因分析 ——基于CD生产函数

基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,采用1985-2011年农业相关数据测算我国农业全要素增长贡献率,最终测算我国农业科技进步贡献率,并分析我国农业科技进步贡献率长期较低的深层次原因,针对这些原因,提出相应解决之策,以提高我国农业科技进步对农业生产的贡献程度,促进我国传统农业快速转向现代农业.     

环境响应性微胶囊及其在农业领域中应用的研究进展

在传统农业中,如何高效率地使用农药,提高其利用率,一直是一大难题。环境响应性微胶囊是一类在外界环境的刺激下,可以相适应地改变其表面结构的物质。这一类微胶囊具有智能、可控、精准、高效等特点。目前,这一项技术已经被广泛地应用于农业生产中。本文主要综述了环境中pH、温度、光以及磁场四大因素对响应性微胶囊的影响,并且简要介绍了该类微胶囊的制备技术、形成机理、主要材料以及在农业领域的应用。     

我国农业非点源污染研究进展及其防治措施

随着点源污染的有效控制,非点源污染已经成为我国重要污染类型之一,其中由农业产生的非点源污染又是重中之重。本文介绍了农业非点源污染的特点、研究进展及其对环境的影响,并针对不同形式的污染源提出了相应的防治措施,以便实现对农业非点源污染从源到汇的全面治理,减少农业非点源污染对水体和对人类健康的危害。     

基于ARIMA模型的我国大宗农产品价格指数预测

以2006年6月至2015年12月我国大宗农产品价格指数月度时间序列作为研究对象.构建ARIMA(1,1,1)模型对我国大宗农产品价格指数进行了拟合和预测,并对模型拟合效果和预测准确度进行了检验,效果均良好.预测结果表明,从长期变化趋势看,我国大宗农产品价格指数上涨是大势所趋.从短期变化趋势看,大宗农产品面对较大的价格下行压力.     

THE ROLE OF GROUNDWATER‐DEPENDENT ECOSYSTEMS IN GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT

Ecosystems provide a wide range of services essential for a proper environmental, economic, and social performance. While the estimated global value of ecosystem services in 2014 is very significant, the annual loss of ecosystem services value is alarming. Our paper focuses on groundwater‐dependent ecosystems (GDEs), some very important to society, which are under threat due to groundwater overexploitation. Considering the ecosystem health/status function is essential for sound groundwater regulation policy. The paper assesses the conjunctive management of groundwater and GDEs both in theory and in a relevant case study, using a certain type of an ecosystem health function. The theoretical results demonstrate how the change in the slope values of a general ecosystem health function affects the optimal groundwater management policy. The analysis also suggests a change in groundwater management strategies as a function of the value of the ecosystem. The theoretical findings are corroborated with data from an aquifer in Spain and its associated GDE—the Tablas de Daimiel Wetland. The paper highlights theoretically and empirically the necessity for a better understanding of GDEs behavior. It calls for groundwater regulation to protect these resources.     

Analytical method for assessing exposure of greenhouse applicators to procymidone by gas chromatography and whole body dosimetry

Summary An analytical method for the determination of the potential and actual exposure of agricultural workers to procymidone has been developed. The methodology is based on the whole body technique, using Tyvek Pro-Tech and Sontara as sampling media, and uses hexane extraction, GC-ECD analysis and GC-MSD confirmation. The validation of the analytical method has been carried out incorporating the matrix of coverall in all steps when calculating parameters such as retention time window, limits of detection and quantification, linear ranges and precision. A field sampling strategy has also been developed and the method has been applied to the evaluation of the potential and actual dermal exposure of an applicator and an assistant in normal working conditions.