A Connection between Singular Stochastic Control and Optimal Stopping

We show that the value function of a singular stochastic control problem is equal to the integral of the value function of an associated optimal stopping problem. The connection is proved for a general class of diffusions using the method of viscosity solutions.     

A distribution-free approach to estimating best response values with application to mutual fund performance modeling

Frontier regression models seek to model and estimate best rather than average values of a response variable. Our proposed frontier model has similar intent, but also allows for an additional error term. The composed error approach uses the sum of two error terms, one an inefficiency error and the other as white noise. Previous research proposed assumptions on the distributions of the error components so that the distribution of this total error can be specified. Here we propose a distribution free approach to specifying these errors. In addition, our approach is completely data driven, rendering model specification an unnecessary step. We also outline, step-by-step, an approach to implementing this procedure. Our entire approach is illustrated with a mutual fund data set from the Morning Star database.     

Simulation-based optimization of social security systems under uncertainty

This paper analyzes optimization-based approaches for a social security simulation model under demographic and economic uncertainties. The model is a compromise between a purely actuarial model and an overlapping generations general equilibrium model. It deals with production and consumption processes coevolving with “birth-and-death” processes of involved agents, e.g., region-specific households subdivided into single-year age groups, firms, governments, financial intermediaries, including pension systems and insurance. The production function of the model allows to track incomes expenditures, savings and dissavings of agents, as well as intergenerational and interregional transfers of wealth. The proposed approach combines the actuarial and the economic growth simulation models in a single stochastic optimization model which explicitly and realistically treats the underlying uncertainties with the goal to satisfy reasonable and secure consumption of agents. The design of optimal robust strategies is achieved by an adaptive simulation-based optimization procedure defined by non-smooth risk functions. Numerical solution is discussed.     

Stability and bifurcation analysis for a fractional prey–predator scavenger model

In this study, we consider a fractional prey–predator scavenger model as well as harvesting by a predator and scavenger. We prove the positivity and boundedness of the solutions in this system. The model undergoes a Hopf bifurcation around one of the existing equilibria where the conditions are met for the occurrence of a Hopf bifurcation. The results show that chaos disappears in this biological model. We conclude that the fractional system is more stable compared with the classical case and the stability domain can be extended under fractional order. In addition, a suitable amount of prey harvesting and a fractional order derivative can control the chaotic dynamics and stabilize them. We also present an extended numerical simulation to validate the results.     

A supply chain network economic model with time-based competition

This paper presents an integrated model for time-cost competition between supply chains with heterogeneous customers. The firms in our model can offer various time options for their production/service to time-sensitive customers. This gives rise of a new concept of time-based supply chain, which we call T-chain, to be the basic element in the competition and extends the inter supply chain competition to a new dimension of time. Assuming the customers are heterogeneous in time-cost bi-criteria decision making, we integrate the discrete choice theory into supply chain network competition and formulate the equilibrium conditions as a multinomial logit based variational inequality problem. Numerical examples are presented for model illustration and managerial insights such as profit maximization for a firm who participates in this supply chain network.     

带时间窗取送货问题的混合算法

为解决带时间窗的取送货问题,建立了集合划分模型,设计列生成算法与启发式规则相结合的CGA混合算法进行求解。首先,放松约束构建主问题及受限主问题,运用单纯形法与分支定界进行求解;其次,建立时空网络以构建子问题,基于修正的Dijkstra's算法,设计包含算法A、B1、B2的求解算法;最后,通过启发式算法解决节点重复覆盖问题。为验证算法有效性,进一步构建了OPT近似最优解算法;并基于CGA提出三种求解策略C1、C2、C3,做单因素方差分析,采用算例分析算法的性能。实验结果表明,对于客户点数量小于30的小规模算例,CGA与OPT所得结果相近,但CGA求解效率更显著;针对客户点数量为600的大规模算例,CGA至多在20分钟内求得结果,可见本文算法的精度和效率较高。而针对不同类型及规模的客户点的单因素方差分析结果显示,C1、C2、C3在“平均行驶距离成本”、“平均车辆数”、“平均求解时间”三个维度上差异性显著,经营者可根据实际需求进行策略选择。     

基于分数O U过程的几何亚式-再装股票期权定价模型

通过将几何亚式期权应用到再装期权中,解决了传统再装期权在再装日按B-S模型执行时所产生的经理激励问题,建立了几何亚式-再装股票期权的定价模型,并在股价服从分数O-U过程下得到了相应的定价公式.通过模拟分析发现,与传统再装期权相比,几何亚式-再装期权的价值要低一些,这说明几何亚式-再装股票期权能更好地降低代理成本.     

Multiple equilibria and indifference-threshold points in a rational addiction model

Becker and Murphy (J Polit Econ 96(4):675–700, 1988) have established the existence of unstable steady states leading to threshold behavior for optimal consumption rates in intertemporal rational addiction models. In the present paper a simple linear-quadratic optimal control model is used to illustrate how their approach fits into the framework of multiple equilibria and indifference-threshold points. By changing the degree of addiction and the level of harmfulness we obtain a variety of behavioral patterns. In particular we show that when the good is harmful as well as very addictive, an indifference-threshold point, also known in the literature as a Skiba point, separates patterns converging to either zero or maximal consumption, where the latter occurs in the case of a high level of past consumption. This implicitly shows that an individual needs to be aware in time of these characteristics of the good. Otherwise, he/she may start consuming so much that in the end he/she is totally addicted.     

基于ARFIMA-HYGARCH-M-VaR模型的亚洲汇率市场均值和波动过程的双长期记忆性测度研究

作为金融传导机制的一个重要成分,汇率在金融危机的传播中发挥着重要作用.因此本文以亚洲汇率市场的汇率作为研究样本,通过引入skt分布来刻画残差的分布,构建了ARFIMA-HYGARCH-M-VaR模型来测度汇率风险值,并与skt分布下的GARCH及FIGARCH模型的VaR进行失败率回测检验与动态分位数测试.研究结果表明:在不同显著性水平下,skt分布下的各种模型基本都有较好的风险测度能力,且ARFIMA-HYGARCH-M模型的VaR风险测度更加精确与稳定.本研究为我国及亚洲其他国家汇率市场的风险测度与风险管理提供了一定的理论借鉴和方法基础.