Predicting automobile claims bodily injury severity with sequential ordered logit models

Despite the large cost of bodily injury (BI) claims in motor insurance, relatively little research has been done in this area. Many companies estimate (and therefore reserve) bodily injury compensation directly from initial medical reports. This practice may underestimate the final cost, because the severity is often assessed during the recovery period. Since the evaluation of this severity is often only qualitative, in this paper we apply an ordered multiple choice model at different moments in the life of a claim reported to an insurance company. We assume that the information available to the insurer does not flow continuously, because it is obtained at different stages. Using a real data set, we show that the application of sequential ordered logit models leads to a significant improvement in the prediction of the BI severity level, compared to the subjective classification that is used in practice. We also show that these results could improve the insurer’s reserves notably.     

Left, right, and inner socles of associative systems

We investigate the basic properties of the different socles that can be considered in not necessarily semiprime associative systems. Among other things, we show that the socle defined as the sum of minimal (or minimal and trivial) inner ideals is always an ideal. When trivial inner ideals are included, this inner socle contains the socles defined in terms of minimal left or right ideals. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Highly polarized dithiafulvenes: synthesis and nonlinear optical properties

Push-pull dithiafulvenes with reduced bond length alternation (BLA) and high optical nonlinearities have been prepared. The interplay between the proaromaticity of the donor and the structural and optical properties of these merocyanines is discussed. The donor ability of dithiafulvenes can reach that of ferrocene or dialkylaminophenyl groups.     

Aberrations theory of a time dependent magnetic field lens

We analyze new forms of aberrations affecting a time dependent magnetic field lens recently proposed. The lens consist of an axially symmetric ellipsoidal solenoid producing a spatially uniform but time pulsating homogeneous field. The dynamics of electrons emitted by some object and injected into this coil shows that this system is capable of focusing a parallel beam or produce images free of geometrical aberrations. The cardinal elements of this lens change periodically in positions and therefore to obtain a stationary image it is necessary to employ a chopped electron beam. Two forms of aberrations originate from the finite duration of the electron pulse and the energy dispersion of the incoming beam (chromatic aberration). Their image degradation effects are quite similar and result from recording different axially displaced images at some fixed stationary plane. We show how, by adjusting the parameters characterizing the magnetic pulse and introducing small apertures that increase the depth of focus, their effects can be reduced or in some cases eliminated. Other forms of instrumental aberrations characteristic of this time dependent magnetic field lens are briefly discussed.     

Quantum optical predictions inQ representation for Bell's type experiments

Using the Q representation, we study the disagreement between quantum optical formalism and local realism and we show that the phenomenon of enhancement, first revealed by the local realist analysis, could receive a simple explanation if we use this particular version of the quantum formalism. Nevertheless, some fundamental difficulties remain.     

Dynamics on the Virasoro group, 2D gravity and hidden symmetries

We derive the action of 2D gravity from the two-cocycle of the Virasoro group by using a previously introduced method for constructing a dynamical system from a Lie group. A natural construction and explanation of the hidden SL(2, )-Kac-Moody symmetry, of general applicability, is provided. We also show how the proper quantization goes beyond the ordinary co-adjoint orbit method, and the possible connection with the Poisson-Lie groups.     

Complex transformations of the curvature tensor

It is shown that complex transformations can be applied on the parameters and coordinates entering a known curvature tensor in order to generate new curvature tensors which, just as the seed tensor, possess the same symmetry properties and satisfy certain algebraic relationships following from the Einstein-Maxwell equations with cosmological constant.