Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

147Pm激发的ZnS：Cu,Cl发光粉的研究

以高纯ZnS粉末为基质,采用高温转相、扩散,以及表面涂敷工艺,制得了¹⁴⁷Pm激发的ZnS:Cu,Cl发光粉。分析了ZnS:Cu,Cl的晶体结构,测量了ZnS:Cu,Cl的激发光谱、发射光谱、发光亮度。其晶体结构主要是六方纤锌矿型结构,激发光谱峰值波长为341nm,发射光谱峰值波长为513nm,初始发光亮度达到312mcd/m₂。由激发光谱的峰值波长341nm推算得到六方ZnS晶体的禁带宽度为3.64eV。分析了¹⁴⁷Pm激发的ZnS:Cu,Cl发光粉的发光寿命,其发光寿命达到5年以上。还探讨了该放射性发光粉的发光机理。¹⁴⁷Pm激发的ZnS:Cu,Cl的稳定发光,实际上是激发过程与复合过程的准平衡。ZnS:Cu,Cl的绿色发光来源于深施主-深受主对的复合发射。实验结果的分析表明,ZnS:Cu,Cl中深施主-深受主之间的能级间隔约为2.42eV。     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Electroactive conducting polymers for corrosion control

There is an intensive effort underway to develop new corrosion control coatings for structural metals. In part, this effort has been motivated by the desire to replace chromium(VI)-containing coatings currently used for corrosion control of iron and aluminum alloys. Cr(VI) has been shown to be hazardous to the environmental and to human health, and its use in many countries will be sharply curtailed in the coming years. Electroactive conducting polymers (ECPs) represent a class of interesting materials currently being explored for use in corrosion control coating systems, possibly as a replacement for Cr(VI)-based coatings. The electroactivity and the electronic conductivity (or semiconductivity) of ECPs set them apart from traditional organic coatings. As with chromate, interesting and potentially beneficial interactions of ECPs with active metal alloys such as steel and aluminum are anticipated, with concomitant alteration of their corrosion behavior. A review of this active research area will be presented in two parts. Here in Part 1, a general introduction to the topic of corrosion control by ECPs will be presented, including an overview of corrosion and its control by traditional methods, an introduction to ECPs and their properties, and a discussion of the processing issues surrounding the use of ECPs as coatings. Part 1 also includes a review of the literature on the use of ECPs as coatings (or components of coatings) on non-ferrous active metals, principally aluminum and aluminum alloys, although some work on zinc, copper, silver, titanium and silicon will also be described. In Part 2 of this review (to be published in the next issue of this journal), the rather extensive literature on the use of ECPs for the corrosion control of ferrous alloys (steels) will be reviewed. Electronic Publication     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

New ligands for the Fe(III)‐mediated reverse atom transfer radical polymerization of methyl methacrylate

A series of (di)picolinic acids and their derivates are investigated as novel complexing tridentate or bidentate ligands in the iron‐mediated reverse atom transfer radical polymerization of methyl methacrylate in N,N‐dimethylformamide at 100 °C with 2,2′‐azobisisobutyrontrile as an initiator. The polymerization rates and polydispersity indices (1.32–1.8) of the resulting polymers are dependent on the structures of the ligands employed. Different iron complexes may be involved in iron‐mediated reverse atom transfer radical polymerization, depending on the type of acid used. ¹H NMR spectroscopy has been used to study the structure of the resulting polymers. Chain‐extension reactions have been performed to further confirm the living nature of this catalytic system. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 44: 2912–2921, 2006     

Dynamic complexities in predator–prey ecosystem models with age-structure for predator

Natural populations, whose generations are non-overlapping, can be modelled by difference equations that describe how the populations evolve in discrete time-steps. In the 1970s ecological research detected chaos and other forms of complex dynamics in simple population dynamics models, initiating a new research tradition in ecology. However, in former studies most of the investigations of complex population dynamics were mainly concentrated on single populations instead of higher dimensional ecological systems. This paper reports a recent study on the complicated dynamics occurring in a class of discrete-time models of predator–prey interaction based on age-structure of predator. The complexities include (a) non-unique dynamics, meaning that several attractors coexist; (b) antimonotonicity; (c) basins of attraction (defined as the set of the initial conditions leading to a certain type of an attractor) with fractal properties, consisting of pattern of self-similarity and fractal basin boundaries; (d) intermittency; (e) supertransients; and (f) chaotic attractors.