INFERRING A BIOPOLITICAL CONSENSUS VIEW OF STOCHASTIC DYNAMICS FOR MANAGEMENT OF A TRANSBOUNDARY FISHERY

ABSTRACT. Management of trans‐boundary fisheries is a complicated problem with biological, legal, economic and political implications. We propose a simple stochastic differential‐equation model to describe a biopolitical consensus view of fish stock dynamics. Estimates of the drift and diffusion terms of three stochastic differential equations are obtained using data from the southern bluefin tuna (SBT) fishery with a method based on the Kolmogorov‐Smirnov statistic. We refer to these estimated equations as alternative biopolitical consensus views of SBT stock dynamics. Each of these is used to generate a time series of optimal harvest that achieves the objective of maximizing the present value of expected fishery returns. These time series of optimal harvests are then compared to actual harvests for the period 1981 1997.     

Theoretical study of the Renner-Teller A 2A1 − X 2B1 system of NH2

(Molec. Phys., 1994, 81, 1445–1461)     

AN ADAPTIVE LEARNING FRAMEWORK FOR FORECASTING SEASONAL WATER ALLOCATIONS IN IRRIGATED CATCHMENTS

Abstract This paper describes an adaptive learning framework for forecasting end‐season water allocations using climate forecasts, historic allocation data, and results of other detailed hydrological models. The adaptive learning framework is based on artificial neural network (ANN) method, which can be trained using past data to predict future water allocations. Using this technique, it was possible to develop forecast models for end‐irrigation‐season water allocations from allocation data available from 1891 to 2005 based on the allocation level at the start of the irrigation season. The model forecasting skill was further improved by the incorporation of a set of correlating clusters of sea surface temperature (SST) and the Southern oscillation index (SOI) data. A key feature of the model is to include a risk factor for the end‐season water allocations based on the start of the season water allocation. The interactive ANN model works in a risk‐management context by providing probability of availability of water for allocation for the prediction month using historic data and/or with the incorporation of SST/SOI information from the previous months. All four developed ANN models (historic data only, SST incorporated, SOI incorporated, SST‐SOI incorporated) demonstrated ANN capability of forecasting end‐of‐season water allocation provided sufficient data on historic allocation are available. SOI incorporated ANN model was the most promising forecasting tool that showed good performance during the field testing of the model.     

COMMUNICATION: New derivatives of ethyl cellulose

Triethylamine-mediated carboxymethylation of ethyl cellulose using monochloroacetic acid produced a hydroxymethyl acetate derivative (I). The derivative (I) was subsequently converted to a phthalimidoethyl-ethyl cellulose ether derivative by reacting it with β-hydroxyethyl phthalimide using concentrated sulphuric acid as the catalyst. The elemental analysis agreed with the calculated values using an anhydroglucose unit formula that incorporates the degree of substitution. Mechanisms for the formation of these derivatives are proposed. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.