Global analysis of some epidemic models with general contact rate and constant immigration

An epidemic models of SIR type and SIRS type with general contact rate and constant immigration of each class were discussed by means of theory of limit system and suitable Liapunov functions. In the absence of input of infectious individuals, the threshold of existence of endemic equilibrium is found. For the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium of corresponding SIR model, the sufficient and necessary conditions of global asymptotical stabilities are all obtained. For corresponding SIRS model, the sufficient conditions of global asymptotical stabilities of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are obtained. In the existence of input of infectious individuals, the models have no disease-free equilibrium. For corresponding SIR model, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable ; for corresponding SIRS model, the sufficient conditions of global asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained.     

The impact of the global and local awareness diffusion on epidemic transmission considering the heterogeneity of individual influences

In this paper, we propose a coupled awareness—epidemic spreading model considering the heterogeneity of individual influences, which aims to explore the interaction between awareness diffusion and epidemic transmission. The considered heterogeneities of individual influences are threefold: the heterogeneity of individual influences in the information layer, the heterogeneity of individual influences in the epidemic layer and the heterogeneity of individual behavioral responses to epidemics. In addition, the individuals’ receptive preference for information and the impacts of individuals’ perceived local awareness ratio and individuals’ perceived epidemic severity on self-protective behavior are included. The epidemic threshold is theoretically established by the microscopic Markov chain approach and the mean-field approach. Results indicate that the critical local and global awareness ratios have two-stage effects on the epidemic threshold. Besides, either the heterogeneity of individual influences in the information layer or the strength of individuals’ responses to epidemics can influence the epidemic threshold with a nonlinear way. However, the heterogeneity of individual influences in the epidemic layer has few effect on the epidemic threshold, but can affects the magnitude of the final infected density.

     

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF AN SEIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATE

By means of limit theory and Fonda's theorem, an SEIS epidemic model with constant recruitment and the disease-related rate is considered. The incidence term is of the nonlinear form, and the basic reproduction number is found. If the basic reproduction number is less than one, there exists only the disease-free equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out eventually. If the basic reproduction number is greater than one, besides the unstable disease-free equilibrium, there exists also a unique endemic equilibrium, which is locally asymptotically stable, and the disease is uniformly persistent.     

Global dynamics of a stochastic avian–human influenza epidemic model with logistic growth for avian population

In this paper, a stochastic avian–human influenza epidemic model with logistic growth for avian population is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among avian population and human population in random environments. The dynamical behavior of this model is discussed. Firstly, the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution are obtained. Then persistence in the mean and extinction of the infected avian population is studied. Furthermore, sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution of stochastic avian–human influenza model are obtained. We find a threshold of this stochastic model which determines the outcome of the disease in case the white noises are small. Results show that environmental white noise is helpful for disease control. Finally, numerical simulations validate the analytical results.     

Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.     

Global Analysis of Two Tuberculosis Models

Two models for tuberculosis (TB) that include treatment of latent and infective individuals are considered. The first model assumes constant recruitment with a fixed fraction entering each class, having the consequences that TB never dies out and that the usual threshold condition does not apply. The unique endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable for all parameter values and is shown to be globally asymptotically stable under certain parameter restrictions. The second model has a general recruitment function, but all recruitment is into the susceptible class. Three threshold parameters determine the existence and local stability of equilibria. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to one. The endemic equilibrium, when it exists, is shown to be globally asymptotically stable under certain parameter restrictions. Global stability results for the endemic equilibria are proved using the geometric approach of Li and Muldowney.     

Bifurcation analysis of predator-prey systems with constant rate harvesting using non-standard discretization

We formulate and apply non-standard discretization methods that enable us to study the saddle, elliptic and parabolic cases of the predator-prey system with constant rate harvesting as difference dynamical systems. Our models have the same qualitative features as their corresponding continuous models. By choosing appropriate bifurcation parameters, we combine analytical and numerical investigations to produce interesting global bifurcation diagrams, including saddle-node, Hopf and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations.     

Asymptotic Properties of a Stochastic SIR Epidemic Model with Beddington–DeAngelis Incidence Rate

In this paper, the stochastic SIR epidemic model with Beddington–DeAngelis incidence rate is investigated. We classify the model by introducing a threshold value \(\lambda \). To be more specific, we show that if \(\lambda <0\) then the disease-free is globally asymptotic stable i.e., the disease will eventually disappear while the epidemic is persistence provided that \(\lambda >0\). In this case, we derive that the model under consideration has a unique invariant probability measure. We also depict the support of invariant probability measure and prove the convergence in total variation norm of transition probabilities to the invariant measure. Some of numerical examples are given to illustrate our results.     

A free boundary problem modeling thermal instabilities: Stability and bifurcation

In this paper, we analyze a simple free boundary model associated with solid combustion and some phase transition processes. There is strong evidence that this one-phase model captures all major features of dynamical behavior of more realistic (and complicated) combustion and phase transition models. The principal results concern the dynamical behavior of the model as a bifurcation parameter (which is related to the activation energy in the case of combustion) varies. We prove that the basic uniform front propagation is asymptotically stable against perturbations for the bifurcation parameter above the instability threshold and that a Hopf bifurcation takes place at the threshold value. Results of numerical simulations are presented which confirm that both supercritical and subcritical Hofp bifurcation may occur for physically reasonable nonlinear kinetic functions.     

Dynamics of biological soft tissue and rubber: internally pressurized spherical membranes surrounded by a fluid

The behavior of a family of dynamical systems representing the elastodynamic response of an internally pressurized, non-linearly elastic spherical membrane lying in an incompressible external fluid is governed primarily by the strain energy function for the membrane, the specific forcing function due to the internal pressure, and the viscosity of the external fluid. It is shown that such systems with an inviscid external fluid and having a constant internal pressure are integrable but not Hamiltonian. Under periodic internal loading, and for a small spherical radius and constitutive relations typical of many biological soft tissues, a periodic orbit in phase space exists near a static equilibrium. A viscous external fluid causes the periodic orbit to be an attractor. The dynamical system is robust under small loading perturbations common in normal biological systems. Rubber models, on the other hand, may admit structural catastrophes. For small initial sphere radii, a jump from one periodic orbit to another is possible for rubber models but not for the classical soft tissue models. It is dangerous, therefore, to model soft biological tissue as a rubber either mathematically or physically in experiments because the predicted instabilities may not exist in tissue.     

Rich dynamics caused by diffusion

It is an awfully difficult task to design an efficient numerical method for bifurcation diagrams, the graphs of Lyapunov exponents, or the topological entropy about discrete dynamical systems by linear/nonlinear diffusion with the Direchlet/Neumann- boundary conditions. Until now there are less works concerned with such a problem. In this paper, we propose a scheme about bifurcating analysis in a series of discrete-time dynamical systems with linear/nonlinear diffusion terms under the periodic boundary conditions. The complexity of dynamical behaviors caused by the diffusion term are to be determined. Bifurcation diagrams are shown by numerical simulation and chaotic behavior (chaotic Turing patterns) is demonstrated by computing the largest Lyapunov exponent. Our theoretical model can give an interesting case study about the phenomenon: the individuals exhibit a very simple dynamics but the groups with linear/nonlinear coupling can own a complex dynamics including fluctuation, periodicity and even chaotic behavior. We find that diffusion can trigger chaotic behavior in the present system and there exist multiple Turing patterns. It is interesting as regular or chaotic patterns can be reported in this study. Chaotic orbits emerge when exploring further in the diffusion coefficient space, and such a behavior is entirely absent in the corresponding continuous time-space system. The method proposed in the present paper is innovative and the conclusion is novel.

     

Analytical parametric study of bi-linear hysteretic model of dry friction under harmonic,impulse and random excitations

Hysteretic behavior due to some nonlinear sources is a common phenomenon in many dynamical systems. One of the sources of this behavior in mechanical systems is dry friction. Dry friction in bolted or riveted joints of mechanical structures makes their dynamic behavior hysteretic. Bi-linear hysteresis is one of the models that can be used to study these systems which is used in this paper. A SDOF system containing a bi-linear hysteretic element called Jenkins element under harmonic, impulse and random excitations is considered. For all three types of excitations, the effects of system and excitation parameters on the defined equivalent system parameters and the response specifications are studied. Harmonic balance method is employed for harmonic excitation studies, and optimum friction threshold for minimizing response amplitude is obtained versus other system parameters and response amplitude. Energy balance method is used for impulse excitation through which the desired decaying ratio can be achieved by tuning the friction threshold, depending on stiffness ratio. System under random excitation is investigated by equivalent linearization technique in two steps. At the first step, equivalent properties are obtained versus instantaneous amplitude of response. In this step, the paper contains the parametric study of system in which the variations of equivalent parameters are described when physical parameters of system or input intensity vary. Overall variance of system response is determined in the second step, and optimum sliding threshold is obtained to have minimum overall variance of system response.     

Dynamic and wear characteristics of self-lubricating bearing cage: effects of cage pocket shape

34,354,966 active cases and 460,787 deaths because of COVID-19 pandemic were recorded on November 06, 2021, in India. To end this ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic, there is an urgent need to implement multiple population-wide policies like social distancing, testing more people and contact tracing. To predict the course of the pandemic and come up with a strategy to control it effectively, a compartmental model has been established. The following six stages of infection are taken into consideration: susceptible (S), asymptomatic infected (A), clinically ill or symptomatic infected (I), quarantine (Q), isolation (J) and recovered (R), collectively termed as SAIQJR. The qualitative behavior of the model and the stability of biologically realistic equilibrium points are investigated in terms of the basic reproduction number. We performed sensitivity analysis with respect to the basic reproduction number and obtained that the disease transmission rate has an impact in mitigating the spread of diseases. Moreover, considering the non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical intervention strategies as control functions, an optimal control problem is implemented to mitigate the disease fatality. To reduce the infected individuals and to minimize the cost of the controls, an objective functional has been constructed and solved with the aid of Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The implementation of optimal control strategy at the start of a pandemic tends to decrease the intensity of epidemic peaks, spreading the maximal impact of an epidemic over an extended time period. Extensive numerical simulations show that the implementation of intervention strategy has an impact in controlling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic. Further, our numerical solutions exhibit that the combination of three controls are more influential when compared with the combination of two controls as well as single control. Therefore, the implementation of all the three control strategies may help to mitigate novel coronavirus disease transmission at this present epidemic scenario.

     

Modelling the effects of heavy alcohol consumption on the transmission dynamics of gonorrhea

Prior studies have indicated that heavy alcohol drinkers are likely to engage in risky sexual behaviours and thus, more likely to get sexually transmitted infections (STIs) than social drinkers. Here, we formulate a deterministic model for evaluating the impact of heavy alcohol drinking on the reemerging gonorrhea epidemic. The model is rigorously analysed, showing the existence of a globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the reproductive number is less than unity. If the disease threshold number is greater than unity, a unique endemic equilibrium exists and is globally asymptotically stable in the interior of the feasible region and the disease persists at endemic proportions if it is initially present. Both analytical and numerical results are provided to ascertain whether heavy alcohol drinking has an impact on the transmission dynamics of gonorrhea.     

Bifurcation of attractor in the falling film problem

Film flows down a vertical plane, the so-called falling films, are covered by waves whose lengths are longer than a threshold value corresponding to neutral stability of the waveless flow. On the other hand, experiments also demonstrate existence of the upper threshold wavelength in unstable interval. This phenomenon is explained through careful analysis of dynamical system modelling the wave dynamics in falling films.     

Threshold Dynamics for Compartmental Epidemic Models in Periodic Environments

The basic reproduction ratio and its computation formulae are established for a large class of compartmental epidemic models in periodic environments. It is proved that a disease cannot invade the disease-free state if the ratio is less than unity and can invade if it is greater than unity. It is also shown that the basic reproduction number of the time-averaged autonomous system is applicable in the case where both the matrix of new infection rate and the matrix of transition and dissipation within infectious compartments are diagonal, but it may underestimate and overestimate infection risks in other cases. The global dynamics of a periodic epidemic model with patch structure is analyzed in order to study the impact of periodic contacts or periodic migrations on the disease transmission.      

Threshold dynamics for a HFMD epidemic model with?periodic transmission rate

In this paper, a periodic epidemic model is proposed in order to simulate the dynamics of HFMD transmission. We consider the effects of quarantine in the children population. We obtain a threshold value which determines the extinction and uniform persistence of the disease. Our results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the threshold value is less than unity. Otherwise, the system has a positive periodic solution and the disease persists. Numerical simulations show that quarantine has a positive impact on the spread of disease, i.e., quarantine is beneficial to the intervention and control of the disease outbreak in the children population.     

The simple chaotic model of passive dynamic walking

Recent findings on the dynamical analysis of human locomotion characteristics such as stride length signal have shown that this process is intrinsically a chaotic behavior. The passive walking has been defined as walking down a shallow slope without using any muscular contraction as an active controller. Based on this definition, some knee-less models have been proposed to present the simplest possible models of human gait. To maintain stability, these simple passive models are compelled to show a wide range of different dynamics from order to chaos. Unfortunately, based on simplifications, for many years the cyclic period-one behavior of these models has been considered as the only stable response. This assumption is not in line with the findings about the nature of walking. Thus, this paper proposes a novel model to demonstrate that the knee-less passive dynamic models also have the ability to model the chaotic behavior of human locomotion with some modifications. The presented novel model can show chaotic behavior as a stable and acceptable answer using a chaotic function in heel-strike condition. The represented chaotic model is also able to simulate different types of motor deficits such as Parkinson’s disease only by manipulating the value of chaotic parameter. Our model has extensively examined in complexity and chaotic behavior using different analytical methods such as fractal dimension, bifurcation and largest Lyapunov exponent, and it was compared with conventional passive models and the stride signal of healthy subjects and Parkinson patients.