基于显示连通贝叶斯网络的机场塔台地震易损性分析

将基于性能的多维易损性分析方法,结合显示连通贝叶斯网络,应用于机场塔台的多维易损性分析。考虑地震激励的不确定性,通过非线性时程分析获得结构响应数据;将塔台结构分为三个层次,每个层次按包含的层数分为相应的子层次。根据功能特性确定子层次的评价指标和极限状态,建立服从多元对数正态分布的概率地震需求模型;考虑各种极限状态之间的相关性,建立极限状态方程,确定失效域,通过蒙特卡洛法求得构件的超越概率;建立塔台结构的显示连通贝叶斯网络模型,利用层次分析法获得中间节点的条件概率表,利用MATLAB进行贝叶斯网络的推理计算,实现从单一层次的易损性到整体易损性的推理。     

基于神经网络的核电厂设备易损性分析

核电结构的易损性分析是核电厂地震安全评估中至关重要的一环, 但是由于核电结构的复杂性以及考虑土?结相互作用SSI时较大的计算规模, 使得计算核电厂设备易损性曲线十分耗时. 为发展高效的核电厂设备易损性分析方法, 本文采用核电结构土?结相互作用分析的分区计算方法, 并利用有限的SSI分析结果建立神经元模型ANN代替有限元模型, 分别基于对数正态假定的回归法和蒙特卡洛法进行了设备易损性分析. ANN数值模拟包括了以下内容: (1)基于半偏相关系数选择最相关的地震动参数作为ANN输入, 并通过交叉检验建立神经元模型; (2)量化研究ANN数值模拟的预测不确定性, 其中包含了由于简化地震动输入引起的随机不确定性和训练样本缺失引起的认知不确定性; (3)基于ANN模型预测结果分别采用蒙特卡洛法和基于对数正态假定的回归法进行设备的易损性分析. 本文探讨了不同的地震强度指标以及土层材料的不确定性对易损性曲线的影响, 同时验证了回归法中对数正态模型假定的基本合理性, 为核电厂设备易损性分析提供了一种可能方向.      

计算近场地震作用下隔震结构支座破坏易损性曲线的概率凸集混合模型

用凸集模型模拟隔震结构参数的不确定性,而用随机模型模拟地震动输入的不确定性,提出了计算近场地震作用下在考虑双不确定性因素时隔震结构支座发生破坏的易损性曲线计算新方法;计算结果将给隔震支座力学参数的设计提供参考;通过计算对比可知,若不考虑结构参数不确定性将低估隔震支座破坏的地震易损性;对计算实例中基底最大位移敏感度分析发现,隔震支座的力学参数(如屈服力、屈服后刚度等)对基底最大位移影响较大,上部结构质量的影响次之,而上部结构的刚度对其影响不大;此外,本文的研究内容也为考虑结构参数和输入地震动双不确定性因素的情况下,计算各类结构地震易损性曲线提供了一种新的思路和途径。     

全局性能水准与构件局部损伤状态相关性研究

传统的最大层间位移作为一个全局性的性能指标,超出给定的性能极限状态阈值就不能映射构件局部损伤状态。本文基于能量平衡原理,将塑性能量耗散和塑性铰的等效能相比得到累积塑性应变,将累积塑性应变这一反映局部损伤状态的损伤指标作为工程需求参数,假定一系列累积塑性应变阈值建立局部构件的易损性曲线族。以传统的最大层间位移作为反映全局性能水准的工程需求参数,建立结构全局性能极限状态下的易损性曲线。对比全局和局部易损性曲线,发现全局性能水准和局部构件损伤状态之间存在良好的相关性,通过易损性曲线的吻合程度可获得给定全局性能水准相对应的累积塑性应变阈值。进而也建立起全局性能指标与局部损伤状态的映射关系。基于累积塑性应变的机构易损性分析是一种更精确的易损性分析方法。     

全局性能水准与构件局部损伤状态

传统的最大层间位移作为一个全局性的性能指标，超出给定的性能极限状态阈值就不能映射构件局部损伤状态。本文基于能量平衡原理，将塑性能量耗散和塑性铰的等效能相比得到累积塑性应变，将累积塑性应变这一反映局部损伤状态的损伤指标作为工程需求参数，假定一系列累积塑性应变阈值建立局部构件的易损性曲线族。以传统的最大层间位移作为反映全局性能水准的工程需求参数，建立结构全局性能极限状态下的易损性曲线。对比全局和局部易损性曲线，发现全局性能水准和局部构件损伤状态之间存在良好的相关性，通过易损性曲线的吻合程度可获得给定全局性能水准相对应的累积塑性应变阈值。进而也建立起全局性能指标与局部损伤状态的映射关系。基于累积塑性应变的机构易损性分析是一种更精确的易损性分析方法。     

A PROBABILITY AND INTERVAL HYBRID STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD CONSIDERING PARAMETERS’ CORRELATION

提出了一种考虑相关性的概率-区间混合不确定性模型及结构可靠性分析方法,能够处理变量之间具有相关性的混合可靠性分析问题. 分别针对概率变量,概率区间变量及区间变量定义了相关角的概念,用以定量描述变量之间的相关性;通过仿射坐标,将相关变量转换为独立变量;给出了其可靠性分析模型,并构建了一高效求解方法获得其可靠性指标和失效概率区间;最后通过分析两个数值算例,验证了方法的有效性.     

近断层地震作用下钢筋混凝土连续梁桥地震易损性分析

考虑桥墩、支座构件及主梁的碰撞损伤指标,对钢筋混凝土连续梁桥进行了地震易损性分析.综合考虑了结构参数的不确定性,从太平洋地震工程研究(Pacific earthquake engineering research,PEER)数据库中随机选取了20条近场地震记录,得到大量的随机地震-结构样本.结合不同破坏状态下的桥梁损伤指标,根据结构的能力与需求得到了桥梁各构件及整体桥梁结构的地震易损性曲线.从概率意义上判断在强烈地震作用下桥梁结构所处的破坏状态,为今后在役的同类型桥梁震害预测提供了参考.     

基于冗余度与易损性的结构抗震能力提升方法研究

为提升结构整体性能和抗震性能,基于结构构件应变能对材料弹性模量的敏感性及其失效后结构的应变能变化量,建立了结构易损性与冗余度评价指标,以衡量在地震作用下构件发生破坏的容易程度及其失效后对结构整体性能的影响.考虑地震作用下结构构件冗余度及易损性差异,通过加强低冗余-高易损构件,同时削弱高冗余-低易损构件,合理调整各类构件截面面积.结果 表明,构件的冗余度和易损性可以准确反映地震作用下结构构件的重要性及发生破坏的容易程度,考虑构件冗余度及易损性差异,调整结构构件面积,可有效提升结构的整体性能及抗震性能.     

基于综合破坏指数的混凝土重力坝易损性分析

目前,多采用单一响应指标研究混凝土重力坝的易损性,难以综合表征坝体结构的破坏概率。考虑多重指标共同作用的结果,以混凝土重力坝坝顶相对坝踵顺河向位移、整体损伤指数、坝基面累积滑动位移为单一响应指标,采用非线性动力时程分析,根据功效系数法计算各单一响应指标的功效分数,应用变权模型得到坝体综合破坏指数。分析综合破坏指数与其他响应指标的相关性,给出基于综合破坏指数的四级震害划分标准,对比研究基于单一响应指标和综合破坏指数的混凝土重力坝地震易损性曲线。结果表明,较小或较大地震动强度下采用单一响应指标进行易损性评价结果或偏于保守或偏于危险,而采用变权模型得出的综合破坏指数进行易损性评价,可以适应地震动强度的变化,全面客观预估坝体在不同地震动强度下达到各个等级破坏的概率。     

含概率与区间混合不确定性的系统可靠性分析方法

系统可靠性问题中通常存在大量的不确定参数,传统方法一般是基于概率模型对系统进行可靠性分析,但是实际工程中由于数据缺乏或试验条件的限制往往难以得到参数的精确概率分布.本文将结构体系一部分样本信息充足的不确定变量用随机变量进行描述,而另一部分样本缺乏的用区间表示,并提出了一种新的含概率与区间混合不确定性的系统可靠性分析方法.首先,基于一个高效求解方法获得单失效模式下结构的最小可靠度指标;再针对多失效模式下含概率与区间混合不确定性问题建立了系统可靠性分析模型;考虑各失效模式之间的相关性,通过线性相关度计算方法求得相关系数矩阵;最后提出了串联体系和并联体系可靠度求解方法.3个数值算例表明,该方法可以实现含概率与区间混合的多个非线性失效模式下系统可靠度的计算.通过对比传统的概率可靠性分析方法,本文方法只需要少量的不确定信息便可确保系统更加安全,更适合复杂结构系统可靠性的分析和设计.     

Activation energy based extreme value statistics and size effect in brittle and quasibrittle fracture

Because the uncertainty in current empirical safety factors for structural strength is far larger than the relative errors of structural analysis, improvements in statistics offer great promise. One improvement, proposed here, is that, for quasibrittle structures of positive geometry, the understrength factors for structural safety cannot be constant but must be increased with structures size. The statistics of safety factors has so far been generally regarded as independent of mechanics, but further progress requires the cumulative distribution function (cdf) to be derived from the mechanics and physics of failure. To predict failure loads of extremely low probability (such as 10^-6 to 10^-7) on which structural design must be based, the cdf of strength of quasibrittle structures of positive geometry is modelled as a chain (or series coupling) of representative volume elements (RVE), each of which is statistically represented by a hierarchical model consisting of bundles (or parallel couplings) of only two long sub-chains, each of them consisting of sub-bundles of two or three long sub-sub-chains of sub-sub-bundles, etc., until the nano-scale of atomic lattice is reached. Based on Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution of thermal energies of atoms, the cdf of strength of a nano-scale connection is deduced from the stress dependence of the interatomic activation energy barriers, and is expressed as a function of absolute temperature T and stress-duration τ (or loading rate 1/τ). A salient property of this cdf is a power-law tail of exponent 1. It is shown how the exponent and the length of the power-law tail of cdf of strength is changed by series couplings in chains and by parallel couplings in bundles consisting of elements with either elastic-brittle or elastic-plastic behaviors, bracketing the softening behavior which is more realistic, albeit more difficult to analyze. The power-law tail exponent, which is 1 on the atomistic scale, is raised by the hierarchical statistical model to an exponent of m=10 to 50, representing the Weibull modulus on the structural scale. Its physical meaning is the minimum number of cuts needed to separate the hierarchical model into two separate parts, which should be equal to the number of dominant cracks needed to break the RVE. Thus, the model indicates the Weibull modulus to be governed by the packing of inhomogeneities within an RVE. On the RVE scale, the model yields a broad core of Gaussian cdf (i.e., error function), onto which a short power-law tail of exponent m is grafted at the failure probability of about 0.0001-0.01. The model predicts how the grafting point moves to higher failure probabilities as structure size increases, and also how the grafted cdf depends on T and τ. The model provides a physical proof that, on a large enough scale (equivalent to at least 500 RVEs), quasibrittle structures must follow Weibull distribution with a zero threshold. The experimental histograms with kinks, which have so far been believed to require the use of a finite threshold, are shown to be fitted much better by the present chain-of-RVEs model. For not too small structures, the model is shown to be essentially a discrete equivalent of the previously developed nonlocal Weibull theory, and to match the Type 1 size effect law previously obtained from this theory by asymptotic matching. The mean stochastic response must agree with the cohesive crack model, crack band model and nonlocal damage models. The chain-of-RVEs model can be verified and calibrated from the mean size effect curve, as well as from the kink locations on experimental strength histograms for sufficiently different specimen sizes.     

结构体系失效概率计算的一种快速有效方法

提出了结构体系可靠性计算的一种快速、有效的新方法.通过失效模式之间相关度的确定,把系统失效概率的计算归结为各失效模式对应失效概率的权系数的确定.由于不涉及二阶和高阶联合概率的计算,不但有效地减小了计算工作量,且可消除相应的误差.实例对比研究表明,文中方法有足够的精度,且求解方便,计算量小,是实用和有效的.     

The cumulative stress hazard density as an alternative to the Weibull model

A simple, easily reproduced experiment based on artificial flaws has been proposed which demonstrates that the distribution of the minimum failure load does not necessarily follow a Weibull distribution. The experimental result presented in the paper clearly indicates that the Weibull distribution with its strictly increasing function, is incapable of approximating a constant probability of failure over a loading region.New fundamental concepts have been introduced referred to as ‘hazard stress density’ and ‘cumulative hazard stress density’. These concepts helped derive an equation giving the probability of failure without making use of the notions ‘flaws’ and ‘locally initiated failure by flaws’. As a result, the derived equation is more general than earlier models. The cumulative hazard stress density is an important fingerprint of materials and can be used for determining the reliability of loaded components. It leaves materials to ‘speak for themselves’ by not imposing a power law dependence on the variation of the critical flaws which is always the case if the Weibull model is used.An important link with earlier models has also been established. We show that the cumulative hazard stress density is numerically equal to the product of the number density of the flaws with a potential to cause failure and the probability that a flaw will be critical at the specified loading stress.We show that, predictions of the probability of failure from tests related to a small gauge length to a large gauge length are associated with large errors which increase in proportion with the ratio of the gauge lengths. Large gauge length ratios amplify the inevitable errors in the probability of failure associated with the small gauge length to a level which renders the predicted probability for failure of the large gauge length meaningless.Finally, a general integral has been derived, giving the reliability associated with time interval and random loading of a material with flaws. The integral has been validated by a Monte Carlo simulation.     

修正金属本构模型在超高速撞击模拟中的应用

为更加准确地计算93钨合金弹超高速撞击Q345钢板问题,构建了修正的金属本构模型。引入GRAY三相物态方程描述材料相态变化,采用Johnson-Cook强度模型描述撞击后期材料的力学行为。结合封加波损伤演化模型以及Johnson-Cook失效模型描述不同应力三轴度下材料的拉伸、剪切失效行为;引入曹祥提出的断裂演化模型,描述材料失效后应力归零的过程。通过对比超高速撞击数值模拟结果与实验结果,验证了本构模型的适用性,并进一步分析了典型弹靶撞击条件下破片群的空间分布特征。研究结果表明:基于修正金属本构模型获得的超高速撞击靶板穿孔直径、弹体侵蚀长度、破片群扩展速度结果与实验结果一致;GRAY三相物态方程能够相对准确地给出弹体撞击首层靶板以及剩余弹体、破片群撞击第2层靶板时弹靶材料的熔化情况;封加波损伤演化模型能够准确判断超高速撞击过程中靶板是否产生层裂破坏;综合封加波损伤演化模型、Johnson-Cook失效模型以及曹祥提出的断裂演化模型后,数值模拟获得的破片群撞击后效靶板的穿孔面积与累积数量的统计曲线结果与实验结果一致;获得了典型条件下的柱形93钨弹体超高速撞击Q345靶板破片群空间分布结果,破片群的前端具有较高的质量、轴向动量以及横向动量（绝对值）。     

Progressive failure constitutive model of fracture plane in geomaterial based on strain strength distribution

Progressive failure constitutive model of fracture plane in geomaterial based on strain strength distribution is proposed. The basic assumption is that strain strength of geomaterial comply with a certain distribution law in space. Failure of tensile fracture plane and shear fracture plane in representative volume element (RVE) with iso-strain are discussed, and generalized failure constitutive model of fracture plane in RVE is established considering combined effect of tension and shear. Fracture plane consists of elastic microplanes and fractured microplanes. Elastic microplanes are intact parts of the fracture plane, and fractured microplanes are the rest parts of the fracture plane whose strain have ever exceeded their strain strength. Interaction mode on elastic microplanes maintains linear elasticity, while on fractured microplanes it turns into contact and complies with Coulomb’s friction law. Intact factor and fracture factor are defined to describe damage state of the fracture plane which can be easily expressed with cumulative integration of distribution density function of strain strength. Strong nonlinear macroscopic behavior such as yielding and strain softening can be naturally obtained through statistical microstructural damage of fracture plane due to distribution of strain strength. Elastic–brittle fracture model and ideal elastoplastic model are special cases of this model when upper and lower limit of distribution interval are equal.     

截断正态分布情况下失效概率计算的截断重要抽样法

截断重要抽样法是在传统的重要抽样方法的基础上,引入截断抽样函数来计算结构的失效概率,本文运用此方法来解决工程中普遍存在的截断分布问题。首先将截断分布情况下的可靠性模型转化为非截断分布情况下的多模式并联系统的可靠性模型,然后采用截断重要抽样法求解,推导了截断分布可靠性估计值的方差分析公式。文中给出的算例结果表明:截断重要抽样法适用于截断分布的可靠性分析,且在相同的计算精度下,截断重要抽样法比传统的重要抽样法效率要高。     

联合极限状态下基于最大熵可靠度的易损性分析

考虑工程需求参数(EDP)的前四阶矩,提出基于最大熵可靠度理论的地震易损性分析方法.基于SAP2000建立钢筋混凝土框剪模型,选择最大层间位移角和最大层加速度衡量结构的联合性能极限状态,建立极限状态方程.不对EDP的分布进行人为假定,在不同峰值加速度(PGA)下计算两种EDP的前四阶矩,并作为约束条件,建立极限状态方程...