Regularities of solar energetic particle events and fluxes

Some regularities related to solar energetic proton (SEP) events and fluxes have been established. It is shown that the rate of SEP events is proportional to the Wolf numbers and that the distribution functions of SEP events related to both different levels and cycle phases, divided by the sums of Wolf numbers, are identical. It is concluded that extremely large SEP events may also occur in periods of minimum solar activity. This conclusion is confirmed by the experimental data obtained at the end of 2004 and in 2005.     

Probabilistic model for fluences and peak fluxes of solar energetic particles.

The model is intended for calculating the probability for solar energetic particles (SEP), i.e., protons and Z=2-28 ions, to have an effect on hardware and on biological and other objects in the space. The model describes the probability for the > or = 10 MeV/nucleon SEP fluences and peak fluxes to occur in the near-Earth space beyond the Earth magnetosphere under varying solar activity. The physical prerequisites of the model are as follows. 1. The occurrence of SEP is a probabilistic process. 2. The mean SEP occurrence frequency is a power-law function of solar activity (sunspot number). 3. The SEP size (taken to be the > or = 30 MeV proton fluence size) distribution is a power-law function within a 10(5)-10(11) proton/cm2 range. 4. The SEP event particle energy spectra are described by a common function whose parameters are distributed log-normally. 5. The SEP mean composition is energy-dependent and suffers fluctuations described by log-normal functions in separate events.     

Series of events with similar decay times and the homogeneity of the inner heliosphere

Exponential decay phases of electron and proton fluxes in solar energetic particle (SEP) events are investigated for the period from 1974 to 2010 on the basis of IMP-8 and SOHO spacecraft data. The exponential decay of particle fluxes is possible under the invariable integral properties of the surrounding space, which is homogeneous and quasi-stationary in a certain near-solar sector. Consecutive events (sequences of events) with similar exponential decays allow these sectors of space homogeneity to be expanded up to 90°, and sometimes up to 180° and more.     

Comparison of the SPE model with proton and heavy ion data.

Proton data from the GOES 6 and 7 satellites and heavy ion data from the IMP-8 satellite have been compared to the expected results of Nymmik's new model for solar particle event fluences. This model calculates the energy spectra of ions for protons through nickel for solar particle events, based upon the observed proton integral fluence above 30 MeV. Based upon 27 observed proton events of solar cycle 22, and three large historical events, with integral fluences above 30 MeV of greater than 10(6) particles/cm2, a reasonable agreement with model predictions is seen for more than half of the events. However, several events show a marked departure from the model predictions, leading to the conclusion that there may exist more than a single class of event, or that it may be necessary to include additional parameters within the model, such as solar disk position of the source flare, or height of disturbance in the solar corona. Data for heavy ions, (oxygen and iron), were limited to a total of six solar particle events, of which only two occurred in solar cycle 22. The agreement between data and the model predictions appeared to be quite good, however this agreement was sensitively dependent upon the value taken for the proton fluence above 30 MeV.     

Measurements of solar heavy ions inside the earth''s magnetosphere

Stacks of cellulose nitrate and cellulose triacetate plastic nuclear track detectors were exposed on a russian satellite in a low earth orbit during the solar particle events in October 1989. Extremely high fluences of solar particles with nuclear charges equal to or greater than 6 were registered. In CTA a charge identification for Z= 8–14 with a resolution of 0.5 charge units was achieved. Energy spectra and arrival directions of the detected particles were measured in both detector materials. The distribution of the arrival directions for ions in CTA shows a significant contribution of particles impinging from below the horizon.     

Proton spectrum of the 2005 January 20 solar flare

An extreme solar cosmic ray event broke out on 2005 January 20.Not only is it the most intensive solar energetic particle (SEP) event,with＞100 MeV particles measured by GOES satellite since 1986,but it has been the largest ground level enhancement (GLE) event recorded by the ground-based neutron monitors since 1956.This work presents the solar proton spectra for this event with data obtained by GOES in multiple energy cbannels.These spectra are well fitted by a modified power-law function.The spectral index of around -1 indicates that the January 20 event has a hard energy spectrum.Possible mechanisms for the acceleration of relativistic protons are discussed.     

Proton spectrum of the 2005 January 20 solar flare

An extreme solar cosmic ray event broke out on 2005 January 20. Not only is it the most intensive solar energetic particle (SEP) event, with >100MeV particles measured by GOES satellite since 1986, but it has been the largest ground level enhancement (GLE) event recorded by the ground-based neutron monitors since 1956. This work presents the solar proton spectra for this event with data obtained by GOES in multiple energy channels. These spectra are well fitted by a modified power-law function. The spectral index of around －1 indicates that the January 20 event has a hard energy spectrum. Possible mechanisms for the acceleration of relativistic protons are discussed.     

Extreme events on complex networks

A wide spectrum of extreme events ranging from traffic jams to floods take place on networks. Motivated by these, we employ a random walk model for transport and obtain analytical and numerical results for the extreme events on networks. They reveal an unforeseen, and yet a robust, feature: small degree nodes of a network are more likely to encounter extreme events than the hubs. Further, we also study the recurrence time distribution and scaling of the probabilities for extreme events. These results suggest a revision of design principles and can be used as an input for designing the nodes of a network so as to smoothly handle extreme events.     

The problems of cosmic ray particle simulation for the near-Earth orbital and interplanetary flight conditions

A wide range of the galactic cosmic ray and SEP event flux simulation problems for the near-Earth satellite and manned spacecraft orbits and for the interplanetary mission trajectories are discussed. The models of the galactic cosmic ray and SEP events in the Earth orbit beyond the Earth's magnetosphere are used as a basis. The particle fluxes in the near-Earth orbits should be calculated using the transmission functions. To calculate the functions, the dependences of the cutoff rigidities on the magnetic disturbance level and on magnetic local time have to be known. In the case of space flights towards the Sun and to the boundary of the solar system, particular attention is paid to the changes in the SEP event occurrence frequency and size. The particle flux gradients are applied in this case to galactic cosmic ray fluxes.     

Evaluation of solar spectral irradiance distribution using an index from a limited range of the solar spectrum

The output energy of photovoltaic (PV) modules under outdoor conditions is greatly influenced by the spectral irradiance distribution of the solar spectrum. To analyze this effect on PV modules, the spectral irradiance distribution, which is one-dimensional data, has to be represented by a zero-dimensional index. The average photon energy (APE) is an index for spectral irradiance distributions, which represents the average energy per photon in a spectrum. We have previously analyzed the uniqueness of the shape of the solar spectrum in the wavelength range of 350–1050 nm, and one corresponding value of APE showed a specific shape of spectral irradiance distribution. In this study, new indexes were calculated for a limited wavelength range of 350–750 nm and multiple bands of 450–500 nm and 800–850 nm of the solar spectrum for easy measurement and calculation. The result shows the uniqueness of new indexes to the shape of measured solar spectrum and the standard deviations were found to be quite small. This indicates that the new indexes are reasonable for representing the spectral irradiance distribution and its effect on PV performance.     

全球变暖对高温破纪录事件规律性的影响

分别采用高斯分布函数和偏态分布函数分析了厦门市1954—2004年51年日观测温度资料中的高温破纪录事件的统计规律,并以此采用蒙特卡罗方法对厦门市未来高温破纪录事件发展趋势进行了模拟.结果显示:厦门近50年来6月的日温度观测资料更符合偏态函数统计规律性; 但理论研究表明偏态函数与高斯函数有着同样的收敛极限,即Gumbel 分布函数. 模拟结果还显示:在全球增暖背景下的基于偏态函数分布的蒙特卡罗模拟能较好地揭示未来厦门市极端事件发生规律, 并对厦门未来的10年6月份日温度概率分布做了预测.全球增暖背景,一方 关键词： 高温破纪录事件 蒙特卡罗模拟 偏态分布函数     

Predicting GCR fluxes for future space missions

An empirical model of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) fluxes is developed using a wide range of experimental data obtained during solar cycles 21–24. Forecasts of GCR fluxes for cycles 25 and 26 are given.     

Charge states of heavy ions, as determined from the parameters of solar energetic particle spectra

The charge states of He, C, O, and Fe ions are determined for 51 gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events of solar cycle 23 using the parameters of the particle energy spectra consisting of two power-law regions separated by the so-called knee. Experimental data from the GOES satellites (protons) and ULEIS (all particles) and SIS (H, C, O, Fe ions) instruments are employed. The charge states of the heavy ions are found to be independent of the SEP event magnitude and particle energy (in the interval of 0.3 to 30 MeV/nucleon).     

Comment on the use of GOES solar proton data and spectra in solar proton dose calculations.

There is a need to understand the calibration and response of the GOES solar particle detectors since the GOES data are being used to evaluate high energy solar particle events. We share some of our experience in utilizing these data in the analysis of solar particle ground-level events (GLEs). For the 29 September 1989 event, we have evaluated the solar proton and alpha particle spectral characteristics throughout the event. The results show that the solar cosmic ray spectrum is extremely hard at low energies with the magnitude of the slope increasing with increasing energy and with time.     

Passive longitudes of solar cosmic ray sources

Solar proton events during the period from 1956 to 2012 are considered. Fluences of protons of various energies in these events are computed. On the basis of these data, the inhomogeneity observed in our earlier studies of the distribution of their sources on the Sun along the Carrington longitude is confirmed. Special attention is given to the extensive interval of passive longitudes discovered between ≈90°–170° over the period of observations. The summed proton fluence of the events whose sources lie in this interval of Carrington longitudes is considerably lower than the summed proton fluences of events in other heliolongitude intervals. Of the 60 most powerful solar proton events observed during the period of observations, no more than 1 event originated from this interval of passive longitudes.     

An analysis of quantum coherent solar photovoltaic cells

A new hypothesis (Scully et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 108 (2011) 15097) suggests that it is possible to break the statistical physics-based detailed balance-limiting power conversion efficiency and increase the power output of a solar photovoltaic cell by using “noise-induced quantum coherence” to increase the current. The fundamental errors of this hypothesis are explained here. As part of this analysis, we show that the maximum photogenerated current density for a practical solar cell is a function of the incident spectrum, sunlight concentration factor, and solar cell energy bandgap and thus the presence of quantum coherence is irrelevant as it is unable to lead to increased current output from a solar cell.     

Detection of solar neutrons by ground-based neutron monitors

Summary The analysis of the Rome NM-64 data, performed on the occasion of 8 solar flares accompanied by gamma-bursts and 10 solar flares accompanied by large X-ray fluxes, shows that the solar energetic neutron events could be detected by ground-based stations particularly when they are located at mountain altitude and middle-low latitudes. Suggestions for improving the neutron monitor efficiency for detecting solar neutron events are given. Paper presented at the 2^o Convegno Nazionale di Fisica Cosmica, held at L'Aquila, 29 May-2 June 1984.     

The solar particle enhancement of April 14–17, 1994 observed without flare signature

We present the results of measurements of the solar energetic particle (SEP) flows in the Earth polar caps obtained from KORONAS-I on April 14, 1994. The maximum energy of protons was 12 MeV and the maximum energy of electrons was 1.3 MeV. The asymmetry of the North-South flows was observed several hours after their peak intensity. We determined the propagation characteristics of SEP in the isotropic diffusion model. Although the SEP enhancement has not been related to the solar flaring event, the genetic relationship of this effect with one of the largest-scale dynamical events on the Sun measured from YOHKOH is obvious. The possible sources of particle acceleration are discussed.     

Trend of extreme precipitation events over China in last 40 years

Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper. Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains （above 25mm/day） in the annual rainfall has increased, while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years. In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s, both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China, especially in the northern China. By moving t test, the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained. The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978-1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years. Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country＇s average.     

基于随机重排去趋势波动分析的极端低温事件研究及其综合指标的建立

将去趋势波动分析法(detrended fluctuation analysis,DFA)和替代数据法相结合,同时引入启发式分割算法和卡方检验,提出了一种确定极端气候事件阈值的新方法,称为随机重排去趋势波动分析(stochastic re-sort detrended fluctuation analysis, S-DFA)方法. 同百分位阈值方法相比,S-DFA方法明确指出了极端事件和非极端事件之间的临界值. 基于中国气象局公布的中国165个国际交换站1961-2006年无缺测的逐日日平均气温资料,利用随机重排去趋势波动分析(S-DFA)方法计算并分析了中国极端低温事件阈值的空间分布特征,并对S-DFA方法在实际资料中的应用进行了检验. 从可预报性的角度给出了极端低温事件综合指标的定义. 这一综合指标将极端低温事件的发生频次和强度综合起来,且兼顾了不同地区各自特有的区域气候背景,进一步说明了综合指标定义的合理性. 基于极端低温事件综合指标的空间分布规律,将中国1961-2006年间极端低温事件分为四个不同等级的地区. 极端低温综合指标整体表现出下降趋势,在20世纪80年代初期之前综合指标的变化具有两个明显的准10年周期,而在这之后则一直处于下降趋势且大大低于平均值,直到90年代中期以后才再次上升至平均值附近. 关键词： 随机重排去趋势波动分析 极端事件 阈值 综合指标