以颗粒物理原理认识地震——地震成因、地震前兆和地震预测

本文以地壳和地幔的基本构造和己有观测事实为依据,运用颗粒物理原理,将地壳和地幔作为大尺度离散态颗粒物质体系处理,重新认识地震孕育过程,前兆产生机制及规律,探求地震预测方法和途径.主要结果是:建立了地壳与地幔构成和运动的颗粒模型;提出了引发地震的大地构造力的形成机制,以及地震前兆信息产生和传播规律;说明了地震前兆信息的主要特征及其与地震发生之间的关联,阐述了探测有效地震前兆信息的方法原理;用颗粒流动的阻塞-解阻塞转变原理解释了深源地震发生机制;对以前难以理解的若干地震学现象进行了解释,并讨论了地震的可预测性。由于地壳和地幔的离散结构特征,对于地震孕育的准静力学过程,连续介质理论不再适用.以颗粒物理原理研究地震成因、地震前兆和地震预测,所获得的新认识与传统连续介质地震学观点有本质区别。     

论地震发生机制

地震发生的物理机理和过程是还没有认识清楚的问题. 此前人们将浅源地震归因于弹性回跳,根据这一观点和岩石实验结果计算得到的地震能量与实际观测结果有很大矛盾,被称之为“热流佯谬”. 中源和深源地震发生在地幔区域,其成因也没有合理的解释. 考虑到地壳和地幔是离散集合态物质体系及其慢动力学运动行为的基本特点,本文根据物理学原理,特别是近年凝聚态物理发展出来的相关新观念,并依据已有观测事实,从新的视角探究地震发生的物理机制. 1) 关于地壳岩石层中的应力分布:在不考虑构造力时,依据万物皆流的流变学原理,原始地壳岩石在自重压强长时间作用下,纵向和横向应力相同,没有差应力. 大地构造力推动岩块滞滑移动挤压断层泥,施加于其他岩块,逐渐传递和积累. 这种附加的横向构造力与原始岩石中应力叠加,形成地壳岩石层中的实时应力. 由于断层泥属于颗粒物质体系,具有与岩石不同的力学特征,其弹性模量比岩石小得多,且随压强而增大,导致构造作用力随深度非线性增大. 给出了地壳中构造应力分布及其变化规律. 2) 关于地壳岩石层强度:地壳岩石的自重会使岩石发生弹性–塑性转变. 通过对弹性–塑性转变深度的计算,并根据实际情况分析,给出了地壳岩石弹性、部分塑性和完全塑性三个区域的典型深度范围. 在部分塑性区,塑性体比例达到约10%以上时,发生塑性连通,这时岩石剪切强度由塑性特征决定. 塑性滑移的等效摩擦系数比脆性破裂小一个数量级以上,致使塑性滑移时岩石剪切强度比脆性破裂小得多. 同时,随深度增大,有多种因素使得岩石剪切屈服强度减小. 另一方面,地震是大范围岩石破坏,破坏必然沿薄弱路径发生. 因此,浅源地震岩石的实际破坏强度必定比通常观测到的岩石剪切强度值低. 给出了地壳岩石平均强度和实际破坏强度典型值随深度的分布规律. 3) 关于地震发生的条件和机制:地震发生必定产生体积膨胀,只有突破阻挡才可膨胀. 地震发生的条件是:大地构造力超过岩石破坏强度、断层边界摩擦力以及所受阻挡力之和. 因此,浅源地震是岩石突破阻挡发生的塑性滑移. 在此基础上提出了浅源地震发生的四种可能模式. 深源地震是冲破阻挡发生的大范围岩块流. 浅源地震和深源地震都是堵塞–解堵塞转变,是解堵塞后岩石层块滑移或流动造成的能量释放. 4) 关于地震能量和临震前兆信息:地震能量即为堵塞–解堵塞转变过程释放的动能. 以实例估算表明,地震岩石滑移动能与使岩块剪切破坏和克服周围摩擦阻力所需做的功相一致,不会出现热流佯谬. 同时指出,通过观测地震发生前构造力的积累过程、局域地区地质变迁以及岩石状态变化等所产生的效应,均可能获得有价值的地震前兆信息. 关键词： 地震发生机制 热流佯谬 地壳岩石应力和强度 堵塞–解堵塞转变     

地震原理新论——兼述地震预测的科学基础

地震是给人类造成巨大损失的自然灾害,地震预测是社会广泛关注的重大的科学问题。然而,地震机理还远未认识清楚,当前国际地震界的主流观点认为地震是不可预测的。本文以物理学的新观念为基础,从新的视角研究地震孕育和发生过程,提出了对地震原理的新认识,剖析了地震不可预测论的错误。地震不可预测论产生的根源在于对地震原理的不正确认识以及对自组织临界性的误解。地震具有自组织临界性的特征,表明不可能对地震作中长期预测,但短期预测应是可能的。成功预测的前提包括:对地震原理的正确认识,获得足够的特征前兆信息,并且掌握相关的地质资料。传统地震学基于固体连续介质理论,认为地震是地壳岩石的脆性破裂造成,用所谓"弹性回跳"来表述地震发生机制。此观点与实际观测严重不符,无法解释诸多地震现象,自然也不能正确地获取和理解地震前兆信息,因而得出地震不可预测的结论。作者根据地壳由岩石层块和其间断层泥组成这一基本事实,将地壳作为离散态体系处理,用颗粒物理原理认识地震孕育过程。获得的认识是:构造力以力链的方式传播,岩块以滞滑移动的方式运动。另一方面,在认真分析地壳岩石强度和构造作用力随深度分布规律基础上,提出地震发生的物理机制是岩石的塑性滑移和岩块运动的堵塞—解堵塞转变。对地震原理这些新认识,可解释传统地震学无法理解的很多地震学现象,例如,消解了传统的"弹性回跳"原理所遭遇的"热流佯谬",解释了深源地震的成因等。基于对地震原理的新认识,提出了如何正确获取地震前兆信息,实现地震短期预测的途径。     

地震动力:由巨观到微观——1999年台湾集集地震

决定地震发生时的断层破裂能量和了解一个断层带的孕育与发展都需要地震和地质数据的结合.在一个大地震的发生过程中,藉由地震仪的记录分析,了解地震断层破裂过程中其断层的几何破裂行为及其机制,甚至分析其运动学上的灾害行为.在地震源分析中文章作者将以上行为分析称为地震的巨观分析.而地震的微观分析,则是以探讨当地震断层及破裂前缘持续向前前进时,其所需的破碎能量及其形成的极小颗粒之断层泥的物理化学机制.此断层滑移带中的断层泥之物理机制、化学组成及地震断层滑移带厚度,皆为了解地震滑移时摩擦行为及能量释放的重要参数.地震的巨观及微观行为的结合分析,为地震学上重要的突破,使人们得以进一步了解地震破裂过程中的摩擦行为、温度及压力的变化,并探讨地震时造成的地表位移、速度及加速度行为.但断层滑移带的断层泥并小易获得,除非有清楚的深部断层几何,并能以深钻的方式取得断层泥材料进行分析.1999年7.6级的台湾集集大地震产生地表或近地表8-12m的滑移,此近地表的滑移足钻井容易达成的,因此提供一次难得的机会,得出大地震滑移带的断层泥了解大滑移断层的动力机制.而2008年四川汶川地震为另一了解此巨观与微观机制的地震.     

静态堆积颗粒中的力链分布

颗粒物质是由众多离散颗粒组成的软凝聚态物质，涉及多个物理层次结构和机制，是多尺度问题. 首先阐述了颗粒物质多尺度力学的研究框架，指出颗粒间接触力链构成的细观尺度是核心，颗粒物质显示出的独特静态堆积特性和动态流变特性都与细观尺度力链的复杂演变规律直接相关. 围绕着定量描述力链特征这一目标，采用严格的球形颗粒Hertz法向接触理论和Mindlin-Deresiewicz切向接触理论，对重力作用下12000个球心共面的二维等径颗粒静态堆积进行了离散动力学模拟，对力链分布特征、接触力规律等做了量化分析，考察了颗粒 关键词： 颗粒物质 力链 离散模型 多尺度力学     

离散颗粒层被横向推移过程中的力学行为研究

研究发现,颗粒物质层被匀速推移挤压过程中,所需推移力先以线性规律增加,在某一确定点后,则会以指数规律增加.而颗粒物质是由众多离散颗粒组成的软凝聚态物质,其宏观上反映的是离散颗粒的个体性质和凝聚态物质的集体效应.颗粒与颗粒之间以及颗粒与边界之间的细观尺度接触力链的构成以及演变规律将会直接影响各种宏观受力情况,其摩擦力与挤压力便是力链的主要构成形式.围绕着定量描述细观力链特征,从而揭示力的变化规律这一目标,采用计算机模拟的方法,依照球形颗粒Hertz法向接触理论和Mindlin-Deresiewicz切向接触理论,对重力作用下不同数目的三维等径球体颗粒层的推移情况进行了离散元仿真模拟,量化分析了推移力变化规律、各摩擦力变化规律以及力链分布规律,发现摩擦力与挤压力在颗粒堆积的不同阶段对力链的构成起到了不同的主次作用,使得力链发生强弱演变,从而发现了推移颗粒物质层时推移力的变化规律及原因.这些结果有利于从力链角度揭示颗粒内部和颗粒与各边界之间的受力情况.     

汶川地震断裂带断层泥矿物拉曼光谱特征

系统测定了汶川地震断裂带深溪沟剖面断层泥中石英和方解石颗粒的拉曼谱峰。测试结果表明,受到断层滑动、断裂带构造挤压应力作用,所有样品的特征拉曼谱峰向高波数偏移。所测样品中微裂隙发育、与绿泥石等粘土矿物共生的石英颗粒的464cm-1谱峰向高波数偏移量为2.50cm-1,而比较完整的纯净石英颗粒的464cm-1谱峰偏移量为3.78cm-1。这可能是由于石英颗粒早期发育大量微裂隙,并填充了松散的粘土矿物,增加了石英颗粒的表面积,从而加速了石英内应力的释放。断层泥中方解石颗粒的1 085cm-1谱峰向高波数偏移2.70cm-1,为汶川8.0级地震断层面所受构造压应力所致。根据方解石颗粒拉曼谱峰的变化及已有的实验数据,估计汶川地震发生时断层面所受压应力的下限为496MPa。研究表明,对断裂带内矿物颗粒进行拉曼谱峰测试,可以为推测断层活动时断层面所受到的力学机制提供依据。     

重力作用下颗粒介质应力链的离散元模拟

用离散元的方法模拟了仅有重力作用的二维颗粒系统内部力的分布情况,并根据力的大小得到颗粒之间的应力链.模拟结果与颗粒介质研究中的两个著名模型q模型和α模型作了对比,并与光弹实验的结果作了比较.对比结果表明,模拟结果与实验相似,而与两个概率模型有一定的差异.另外计算结果还表明,颗粒介质中力大小的概率分布极为不均匀,较大的力概率呈指数衰减,应力链的分布具有分形特征. 关键词： 颗粒介质 离散元 应力链 光弹实验     

寂静地震与地震预测的物理问题

寂静地震是指发生了缓慢的位错、但几乎不辐射地震波的“地震” .在目前的地震预测的物理学研究中 ,通常是通过计算历史上曾经发生过的地震所引起的应力变化 ,或者通过研究地震活动的统计性质或“图像动力学” ,来推测一个断层带上发生地震的危险性 .寂静地震的信息的缺失 ,形成了地震预测的物理学研究中的一个很大的“盲区” ,而在相当程度上 ,解决地震预测的物理问题的主要困难和可能的突破的希望 ,也许就在于此 .寂静地震的研究目前还很不深入 .关于寂静地震的性质 ,文章作者提出两个猜想 :(1)寂静地震的频度 ,满足类似于GR定律的幂律分布 ;(2 )最大的寂静地震的地震矩 ,与“可见”的最大地震的地震矩相当 .     

从非线性与统计物理多重角度探讨数值地震预测

在科技文献中,地震常被比喻为非线性动力学过程或统计物理中的相变过程.文章探讨了如何从非线性力学中的分岔理论以及统计物理内的朗道相变理论出发,从势磊穿越,临界涨落与临界慢化等多个角度来分析和了解地震发生的全过程.文章作者试图在这些非线性力学与统计物理的基础上,综合地震过程中在时间与空间上应出现的前兆,解释如何可能做出具有普适性的数值地震预测.     

Fragmentation dynamics within shear bands--a model for aging tectonic faults?

A numerical model for packing of fragmenting blocks in a shear band is introduced, and its dynamics is compared with that of a tectonic fault. The shear band undergoes a slow aging process in which the blocks are being grinded by the shear motion and the compression. The dynamics of the model have the same statistical characteristics as the seismic activity in faults. The characteristic magnitude distribution of earthquakes appears to result from frictional slips at small and medium magnitudes, and from fragmentation of blocks at the largest magnitudes. Aftershocks to large-magnitude earthquakes are local recombinations of the fragments before they reach a new quasi-static equilibrium. The aftershocks satisfy Omori's law. Local precursor activity at a few times the normal background level appears at a short time before a major earthquake. Seismic gaps appear as a natural consequence of the aging process of a fault. Explanation of the heat flux and principal stress direction anomalies at the faults both involve the value of fracture stress of the blocks in the gouge. The final form of a tectonic fault is predicted to involve a gouge dominated by fine-grained and rather rounded blocks so that it cannot withstand large shear stresses. Received 26 July 2000     

Baikal Ice Cover as a Representative Block Medium for Research in Lithospheric Geodynamics

The paper summarizes the results of long-term field research in the dynamics of the Baikal ice cover as a multiscale block medium similar to the lithosphere in structure, rheology, and seismotectonic features. The analysis covers data on deformation, seismicity, and contact interaction modes as well as on meteorological factors responsible for dynamic fracture of ice plates and strong ice shocks with earthquake-like vibrations. Similarity between seismic features in ice interface zones and zones of tectonic subduction, collision, and shear is discussed. Reasoning from dynamic analogies and similarities of destruction processes in the ice and lithosphere, the research data can help solving fundamental and applied problems, particularly those of earthquake prediction and assessment of contact interactions between lithospheric plates in fault zones.     

内蒙古维拉斯托锌铜多金属矿床深部断层泥特征及其意义

在维拉斯托矿区深部矿井的不同中段共采集了六组断层泥样品,采用X射线衍射和近红外光谱现代测试分析技术对样品进行分析测试,旨在探讨断层泥的矿物成分特征及其与成矿作用关系。分析结果表明,(1)断层泥中含有低温蚀变的粘土矿物(如蒙脱石、高岭石、地开石、绿泥石等)和中高温热液蚀变矿物(如石墨、黑云母、叶腊石、重晶石、蛇纹石、透闪石、阳起石等),同时也含有与成矿作用密切相关的矿物成分(如铜锌氧化物、氯铜钒、蓝铜矿、斑铜矿等)。(2)不同深度的断层泥矿物成分有所不同,地表浅部以浅变质矿物为主,深部以变质程度较深的矿物为主。(3)从断层泥矿物成分、矿物成因及发展演化规律来看,断层泥主要形成于含矿热液活动时期及矿后构造,且后期经历了表生氧化作用。(4)通过分析断层泥蚀变矿物成分及其矿物组合特征可以推测,该矿床形成于中-高温热液环境下,经历了硅化、高岭石化、绿泥石化、萤石化及绢云母化等蚀变过程。因此,通过分析断层泥的矿物成分及其矿物组合特征,不仅对指导找矿有一定的现实意义,同时也可以对矿床成因类型的判断提供重要的参考信息。     

Dynamics of a mobile system with an internal acceleration-controlled mass in a resistive medium

The dynamics of a mobile system with a movable internal mass is investigated in this paper. Due to the periodic motion of the internal acceleration-controlled mass as well as the anisotropy of the external resistance, the system can move in a resistive medium. Major attention is given to the steady-state motion and stick-slip effect of the system as a whole. For anisotropic Coulomb's dry friction, in light of the non-smooth factors in both the internal control mode and external resistance, method of averaging is adopted to obtain an approximate expression of the average steady-state velocity when the stick-slip motion is absent. Optimizing the parameters of the internal controlled mass enables one to realize a maximal average steady-state velocity of the system. In view of the stick-slip effect, the steady-state motion of the system is classified into eight types, and the characteristics of each type are analyzed. Stick-slip motion is of our interest and receives extra attention. Two strategies of control are put forward based on the characteristics of stick-slip motion. Making use of these two control strategies, directed motions of the system are possible and the direction of the motion can be simply controlled by modifying the values of internal accelerations. To achieve an always forward motion with higher average steady-state velocity, further optimization is carried out. For anisotropic linear resistance, the approximate expression of average steady-state velocity can be also obtained by the method of averaging. No stick-slip motion may occur in this instance. All the analytical results are numerically simulated in order to verify their correctness.     

Experimental study of different modes of block sliding along interface. Part 3. Numerical modeling

This paper completes a series of studies on the patterns of block sliding along interface. It has been shown that in order to model the whole range of crustal block movements, the empirical rate and state friction law must be supplemented with a term that accounts for the appearance of additional shear resistance associated with the dynamic viscosity of the contact between blocks. With this term, the experimentally observed slow slip events can be modeled with good accuracy. A generalization of results of the entire series of studies published in several issues of the journal suggests that both the dynamic and quasi-static modes of sliding along faults are components of a single deformation process. The parameter that governs the formation and evolution of a fault sliding mode is the ratio between the effective values of the fault zone stiffness and rock mass stiffness. Their variation determines the occurrence of a particular sliding mode.     

Advance in earthquake prediction by physical simulation on the baikal ice cover

The main challenge in the prediction of tectonic earthquakes and their control is still insufficient awareness of seismotectonic processes in the lithosphere and upper mantle during the preparation of strong earthquakes. This is associated in many respects with not quite appropriate equipment for researchers. Among relevant problems is also a lack of adequate models of preparation of earthquake sources at different stages, and this retards the development of earthquake prediction methods. The paper discusses long-term research on deformation and destruction of the Baikal ice cover in the context of physical mesomechanics. With certain combinations of meteorological factors (wind, temperature, precipitation, undercurrents, etc.) responsible for deformation, major cracks of many kilometers arise in the Baikal ice cover. Their spontaneous growth often involves seismic phenomena as ice quakes whose energy reaches E _max = 10⁴–10⁷ J. The nucleation of major cracks is similar to that of rock bursts of moderate strength or weak earthquakes. It is found that ice quakes and earthquakes are both preceded by foreshocks, seismic calm for tens of minutes, aftershocks and other events against the background of accelerated creep in fractures and increased seismoacoustic activity. Research data make it possible to put forward two genetically interrelated criteria among basic factors for ice quake prediction: variations in deformation modes at convergent boundaries of ice sheets and a specific intensification mode-generation of strong foreshocks in a segment in which ice sheets are prepared for dynamic motion. We substantiate the conclusion that simpler and clearer scenarios of preparation of strong seismic events in the Baikal ice cover allow successful physical simulation of preparation of tectonic earthquakes and rock bursts and advances in their prediction. We also consider and substantiate the feasibility of techniques for more efficient seismic risk reduction.     

The interpretation of gravity anomaly on lunar Apennines

The lunar Apennines, located in the southeast of Mare Imbrium, is the largest range on the Moon. The gravity anomalies on profiles across the mountains reveal evidence of a great fault zone characteristic. The deep crustal structures of lunar Apennines are analyzed on the basis of topographic data from Chang’E-1 satellite and gravity data from Lunar Prospector. The inverted crust-mantle models indicate the presence of a lithosphere fault beneath the mountains. Inverted results of gravity and the hypothesis of lunar thermal evolution suggest that the lunar lithosphere might be broken ∼3.85 Ga ago due to a certain dynamic lateral movement and compression of lunar lithosphere. This event is associated with the history of magma filling and lithosphere deformation in the mountain zone and adjacent area. Moreover, the formation and evolution of Imbrium basin impose this effect on the process.     

Sliding size distribution in a simple spring-block system with asperities

We use a simple spring-block system as a qualitative analogous of a seismic fault. The role of the asperities present in a real seismic fault is played by sandpapers of several grades. With this experimental array Gutenberg-Richter type-laws are obtained. We also observed that the maximum characteristic event in each experimental run depends on both the mass of the sliding blocks and the age of the sandpapers used at the interface between the blocks and the rough track.