北京SARS疫情走势的模型分析与预测

北京SARS疫情的公布数据表明，4月下旬以来，确诊病例的相对增加率随累计确诊病例数的增加而下降．假设这是一个线性关系，并且一直持续下去，我们发现疫情走势是一个反转的Fermi-Dirac分布，根据现有的公布数据可以预期北京平均每日新增病例数将在5月中旬下降到50人以下，在5月下旬下降到10人以下，在6月上旬下降到1人左右，疫情可望在6月中得到控制，最后的累计病例总数约为3千人左右。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情确诊病例的统计分析及自回归建模

基于安徽省卫生健康委员会截至2020年2月19日公布的800余例新型冠状病毒肺炎病例信息,根据病例中公布的接触史构建确诊患者间的有向传播关系,发现源传染患者中男性居多,被传染患者中女性居多.从病例信息中可知,安徽省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的发展从初期的具有武汉居住或接触史的输入病例转入后期本地传播为主的小范围社区传播,且严格的防控隔离措施有效切断了社区内的进一步传播.源传染患者与被传染患者的确诊时间间隔可用G分布拟合,确诊时间间隔的中位数为2 d,平均值为2.67 d.基于有向传播关系的统计特点,构建安徽省疫情发展后期的自回归传播模型,模型仿真结果与疫情发展数据符合.对除湖北省的全国确诊病例数据同样采取自回归建模与仿真,结果仍与疫情发展数据符合.这一发现为控制疫情在湖北省以外区域的防控提供了参考:通过严格的防控措施和隔离措施,疫情在湖北省之外的传播具有很大的黏滞性,多为家庭程度的密切接触传播,且能有效控制新型冠状病毒肺炎在当地的传播深度,有效控制了疫情的蔓延.     

时域统计分析在疾病传播动力学中的应用

文章介绍了运用时域统计分析进行疾病传播动力学研究所得到的新结果.在给定某一类疾病的潜伏期和活动期的时域统计分布参数后,该疾病在具有一定感染几率的封闭系统中的传播动力学过程即可通过求解概率微分积分方程来决定.计算结果表明,在经过长时间传播后,该系统的最终被感染率由指数τ2=cNt2决定,这里c是系统内个体的接触感染几率,Ⅳ是系统所包含的个体数量,t2是疾病活动期的平均时间长度.如果τ2>3,则该系统的最终被感染率可达到100％,因此τ2又称为疾病传播的危险指数.而在疾病传播的初期,新发病例所出现的振荡和间歇行为则由另一个指数τ1=cNt1决定,这里t1是平均潜伏期的长度.这一理论较好地弥补了以往常用的SIR模型对时域统计考虑不足的缺陷,从而对疾病在封闭系统中的传播动力学过程给出理论预测.     

物理实验教学:类型、理由、目标

虽然每个物理教师都认为物理实验是物理教学中的一个重要特征，但是很少有人意识到物理实验的各种类型．用于教学上的理由及要达到的教学目标．如果一个物理教师掌握了上述三个方面，那么，他很可能会在物理教学中更好地发挥物理实验的作用．     

受驱动的关联发射激光:双模亚泊松光

如果在关联发射的基础之上再引入原子相干，这样的系统可产生明亮的双模亚泊松光。运用Ｓｃｕｌｙ－Ｌａｍｂ理论计算ＭａｎｄｅｌＱ因子，一方面，当相对相位和相对振幅的量子噪声被抑制到真空噪声水平时，平均模呈现亚泊松光子分布；或者当平均相位和平均振幅的量子噪声被抑制到真空噪声水平时，相对模呈现亚泊松光子分布，ＭａｎｄｅｌＱ因子的最佳值均可达到－０．５。在上述两种情况下，每个关联发射激光（ＣＥＬ）模呈现亚泊松光子分布，ＭａｎｄｅｌＱ因子的最佳值均可达到－０．２５。     

PNJL模型下手征相变的临界指数

在PNJL模型下研究了临界点和旋节线边界上的临界指数。计算表明四个标准的临界指数$\alpha,\,\beta,\,\gamma,\,\delta$在 平均场近似下与朗道-金斯堡理论的预言一致。重子数涨落分布峰态的临界指数$\eta(\approx2)$大于偏态的 临界指数$\zeta(\approx1)$，这表明，如果在重离子碰撞实验中可以达到临界区域，峰态的测量比偏态的测量更加敏感。计算结果还表明，偏态(峰态)在旋节线边界上的临界指数与在临界点的临界指数具有相同的发散强度。根据重子数在不稳定相和亚稳相的剧烈涨落及峰态和偏态在旋节线边界上发散的特点，在将来的实验中用于鉴别一阶相变的信号在一定程度上会被干扰，一些偏离标准一阶相变的信号或许会在观测中发现。     

高电荷态离子引起的富勒烯禹子的碎裂

离子在与富勒烯的相互作用过程中会导致C60分子的激发。处于低激发态的C60^r＋离子通过发射中性C2分子或带电的轻团簇碎片Cn^＋等非对称碎裂方式来耗散激发能，但如果激发能很高，笼形的C60^r＋离子可能会彻底崩溃，而发生多重碎裂。C60^r＋离子的碎裂过程与其电荷态r及分裂势垒密切相关。低电荷态的C60^r＋（r≤3）离子蒸发一个C2分子需要克服10．3eV左右的势垒。随着电荷态的升高，发射带电的Cn^＋会变得越来越容易，并逐渐过渡到多重碎裂过程。另一方面，C60^r＋离子的碎裂机制还与激发方式有关，在直接正碰过程中，将C60分子当作固体薄靶来处理，通过分析不同价态的C60^r＋离子的碎片谱，发现母核的初始电荷态决定碎裂方式，由此获得一个可以表征激发能大小的可观测量——发射电子个数。     

静水高压处理对水稻植株生理特性的影响

 以75 MPa静水高压处理萌动的水稻种子12 h，成苗后移栽至大田，研究高压处理后植株剑叶光合特性的变化。结果显示，静水高压处理后，粤香占和粤丰占种子的发芽率分别降低了14.4% 和16.6%，成苗率分别降至对照的24.6%和21.9%，生长明显受抑制，幼苗的株高在35天左右才能追赶上对照。高压处理的粤香占剑叶在生育过程中的净光合速率（P_n）和表观量子效率（AQY）的总平均值分别比未处理的对照增加了9.2%和12.4%，而粤丰占则分别增加5.7%和17.4%。高压处理后两个品种的植株叶片不同生长时期的平均光合色素含量均高于未处理的对照，在生长后期的衰老过程中高压处理植株剑叶的色素含量和PSⅡ光化学效率F_v/F_m下降速率较各自的未处理对照缓慢。高压处理后两个水稻品种的生物量和单株产量分别比对照提高了8%~27%及7%~14%。提出高压处理可能作为一种新的选育品种的方法。     

介观体系和介观物理

20世纪80年代初中期开始兴起的介观物理是凝聚态物理中人们十分关注的研究领域,“介观”一词大家已听得很多了.一段时间以来,常读到介观尺度是由电子非弹性散射平均自由程决定的说法,觉得不太确切.想到这一说法可能和我早先发表在《物理》杂志的文章 ［1］,以及我们主编的《介观物理》一书第一版的前言 ［2］有关,特写此短文说明.这里的说明也许仍有不妥之处,请读者指正. 1 介观尺度 介观体系的大小是由介观尺度来刻划的.介观尺度是载流子保持相位记忆的长度,一般记为Lφ,称为退相位长度.相位记忆的丢失源于载流子的非弹性散射,因此Lφ必定是与非弹性散射有关的尺寸.电子和声子的散射,电子吸收或放出一个声子,能量发生改变,是电子最常碰到的非弹性散射.如果把介观尺度理解为非弹性散射的平均自由程,又把后者理解为vFτφ,其中vF是电子的费米速度,τφ是非弹性散射(例如电子和声子散射)的弛豫时间,那么当温度下降,体系中声子数越来越少,τφ越来越长时,介观尺度就变得很大了.对于普通金属,如果τφ取为10-9s,因为vF≈108 cm/s,介观尺度可以达到0.1cm左右,显然这个尺寸过大了. 实际上,在液体氦的温度下,如果普通金属的剩余电阻率ρ≈1 μΩcm,则弹性散射的弛豫时间τ0≈10-13s,电子在两次非弹性散射之间会经受上万次弹性散射,走无规行走的路径,以扩散的方式运动,Lφ是相继两次非弹性散射间电子扩散运动的距离.由于扩散系数D=(vFl)／3,其中l为弹性散射的平均自由程,在τφ时间内的扩散距离为(Dτφ)1／2,约10μm,远小于上述的“平均自由程”长度.这一简单的对扩散距离的估算,给出了介观体系大小正确的数量级.     

基于多轴差分光学吸收光谱探测的北京春季气溶胶垂直廓线

气溶胶垂直廓线是评估污染物来源、输送等途径的必要手段。气溶胶污染对环境和人体健康带来直接的影响。该研究于2019年4-5月,利用中国科学院大气物理研究所（39.98°N,116.39°E）的地基多轴差分光学吸收光谱（MAX-DOAS）仪,对北京地区春季大气光谱垂直廓线进行了观测。凭借MAX-DOAS实时、在线、连续的观测优势,能有效的对气溶胶进行监测。MAX-DOAS基于最优估算法（OEM）以及最小二乘光谱拟合法,并以辐射传输模型SCIATRAN作为前向模型,利用海德堡廓线（HEIPRO）算法反演得到气溶胶消光系数的垂直廓线,通过对气溶胶消光系数在其路径的积分获得气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）。利用地基太阳光度计观测的AOD和高塔观测的颗粒物质量浓度垂直廓线,分别与MAX-DOAS观测的AOD和气溶胶消光系数垂直廓线进行对比,验证MAX-DOAS算法的适用性。研究结果表明,MAX-DOAS与太阳光度计观测AOD结果,相关系数为0.92,斜率为0.89。三层气溶胶消光系数与PM_2.5质量浓度的皮尔森相关系数从低处到高处分别达到0.69（60 m）,0.77（160 m）和0.75（280 m）。并且,将气溶胶平均消光系数和对应三层（60,160和280 m）的PM_2.5平均质量浓度对比,发现两者趋势一致。同样的,为了验证MAX-DOAS是否具备准确识别污染物的长距离输送的能力,我们通过Angstrom指数确定沙尘天气,通过计算梯度理查森数和边界层高度确定静稳天气,分析了在特殊天气条件下,MAX-DOAS能够对沙尘和静稳天气做出及时、准确的响应。分析气溶胶平均消光系数,发现气溶胶垂直廓线随高度升高呈现指数衰减变化的趋势,并且气溶胶消光系数均值在1.5 km高度处约为近地面的50%左右,而在1.5 km以上消光系数会随着高度的增加而快速减小。当高度达到2 km左右时,气溶胶消光系数均值下降到了0.1 km-1。以上结果表明MAX-DOAS探测大气气溶胶垂直廓线具有较高的适用性。     

Quantum Contagion: A Quantum-Like Approach for the Analysis of Social Contagion Dynamics with Heterogeneous Adoption Thresholds

Modeling the information of social contagion processes has recently attracted a substantial amount of interest from researchers due to its wide applicability in network science, multi-agent-systems, information science, and marketing. Unlike in biological spreading, the existence of a reinforcement effect in social contagion necessitates considering the complexity of individuals in the systems. Although many studies acknowledged the heterogeneity of the individuals in their adoption of information, there are no studies that take into account the individuals’ uncertainty during their adoption decision-making. This resulted in less than optimal modeling of social contagion dynamics in the existence of phase transition in the final adoption size versus transmission probability. We employed the Inverse Born Problem (IBP) to represent probabilistic entities as complex probability amplitudes in edge-based compartmental theory, and demonstrated that our novel approach performs better in the prediction of social contagion dynamics through extensive simulations on random regular networks.     

Discovering new physics in the decays of black holes

If the scale of quantum gravity is near a TeV, the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) will be producing one black hole (BH) about every second, thus qualifying as a BH factory. With the Hawking temperature of a few hundred GeV, these rapidly evaporating BHs may produce new, undiscovered particles with masses approximately 100 GeV. The probability of producing a heavy particle in the decay depends on its mass only weakly, in contrast with the exponentially suppressed direct production. Furthermore, backgrounds in the BH sample can be made small. Using the Higgs boson as an example, we show that it may be found at the LHC on the first day of its operation, even with incomplete detectors.     

Opportunistic spectrum access for TDMA-based cognitive radio networks

In this paper, opportunistic spectrum access is proposed for TDMA-based cognitive radio networks. In TDMA-based networks, the time is divided into slots with fixed length one by one. If a primary user (PU) needs to transmit data, one or several slots will be used. Otherwise, the slots are idle and can be utilized by secondary users (SUs). When SUs want to use the licensed channel, they should sense the channel at the beginning period of each slot. Then SUs exchange their sensing results and make the same decision about the channel state (idle or used by PUs), which could reduce the probability of false sensing. The aforementioned duration is called spectrum sensing phase. When SUs decide there is an idle channel, they contend to use the channel at the rest time of the slot. The duration is called access phase. In this period, SUs contend the channel with backoff counters. When the remaining time is less than one data transmission duration, SUs cannot transmit data packets. Therefore, the remaining time is wasted. To solve this problem, SUs transmit control packets with small length in the remaining time instead. The SU who exchange control packets successfully reserves the channel and sends a data packet prior to other SUs in access phase of the next idle slot. Obviously, this reserved transmission is without collision. The independent spectrum sensing, channel state decision and control packets reservation influence the performance of SUs. The proposed scheme is formulated with all above factors. Simulations which consist with the numerical results show the proposed access scheme achieve higher throughput than the existed scheme without channel reservation.     

Simulation of crowd dynamics in pedestrian evacuation concerning panic contagion: A cellular automaton approach

The study of the panic evacuation process is of great significance to emergency management. Panic not only causes negative emotions such as irritability and anxiety, but also affects the pedestrians decision-making process, thereby inducing the abnormal crowd behavior. Prompted by the epidemiological SIR model, an extended floor field cellular automaton model was proposed to investigate the pedestrian dynamics under the threat of hazard resulting from the panic contagion. In the model, the conception of panic transmission status (PTS) was put forward to describe pedestrians' behavior who could transmit panic emotions to others. The model also indicated the pedestrian movement was governed by the static and hazard threat floor field. Then rules that panic could influence decision-making process were set up based on the floor field theory. The simulation results show that the stronger the pedestrian panic, the more sensitive pedestrians are to hazards, and the less able to rationally find safe exits. However, when the crowd density is high, the panic contagion has a less impact on the evacuation process of pedestrians. It is also found that when the hazard position is closer to the exit, the panic will propagate for a longer time and have a greater impact on the evacuation. The results also suggest that as the extent of pedestrian's familiarity with the environment increases, pedestrians spend less time to escape from the room and are less sensitive to the hazard. In addition, it is essential to point out that, compared with the impact of panic contagion, the pedestrian's familiarity with environment has a more significant influence on the evacuation.     

同轴场畸变气体开关运行特性

 开关静态工作特性通常会随放电次数的增加而发生某些变化。针对“强光一号”加速器工作初期、工作中后期和不稳定工作期的120只气体开关,在随机抽样的基础上进行静态实验,给出了三个不同阶段直流自击穿电压与气压的关系。根据0.08 MPa下工作中、后期开关连续80次的直流自放电电压,同时利用Gauss和Weibull概率统计模型,分别计算了不同电压下单只开关和系统的自放电概率。结果均表明,对于工作中、后期的开关,当气压为0.19 MPa时,在42 kV运行电压下,加速器上120只气体开关不发生自放电的概率大于90％,与实际运行情况相符,此时开关的动态放电时延为170 ns,抖动小于20 ns。     

Photoionization of H atoms in few-cycle laser pulses

Photoionization of hydrogen atoms in few-cycle laser pulses is studied numerically. The total ionization probability, the instantaneous ionization probability, and the partial ionization probabilities in a pair of opposite directions are obtained. The partial ionization probabilities are not always equal to each other which is termed as inversion asymmetry. The variation of asymmetry degree with the CE phase, the pulse duration and the pulse intensity is studied. It is found that the pulse intensity affects the asymmetry degree in many aspects. Firstly, the asymmetry is more distinct at higher intensities than that at lower intensities when the pulse duration exceeds 4 cycles; secondly, the maximal asymmetry in lower intensities varies with the CE phase visibly while at higher intensities not; thirdly, the partial ionization probabilities equal to each other for some special CE phases. For lower pulse intensities, the corresponding value of CE phase is always 0.5π and 1.5π, while for higher pulse intensities, the corresponding value varies with the pulse intensity. Similar phenomena were observed in a recent experiment using few-cycle radio-frequency (RF) pulses.     

Effect of Phase Shift in Dual-Rail Perfect State Transfer

We investigate the effect of phase shift on the perfect state transfer through two parallel one-dimensional ring-shaped spin chains. We find that the total success probability can be significantly enhanced by phase shift control when the communication channel consists of two odd chains. The average time to gain unit success probability is discussed, showing that a proper phase shift can be used to enhance the efficiency of state transmission.     

A comparison of the efficiency of Monte Carlo (MC) and molecular dynamics (MD) calculations at first order phase transitions

As a rule the canonical ensemble is used in the statistical analysis of phase transitions. There the system of interest is coupled to an infinite bath. It will be demonstrated that it is of considerable advantage to use a different ensemble where the size of the bath is comparable to the size of the system of interest. The advantages will be demonstrated for the example of a first order phase transition by making use of the density of states of the modifiedxy-model which has recently been determined in an MD-calculation for several lattice sizes. In contrast to the canonical ensemble the probability distribution does not suffer from the double hump structure and therefore allows an accurate determination of the properties at the transition. In the end we shall argue that the corresponding ensemble can also be realized in an MC-approach.     

6He中t+t结构的实验研究

在25MeV/u ⁶He轰击⁹Be靶的反应中,用探测器望远镜测得氚碎片,得到了5个角度的能谱,经过仔细的分析取得了高能直接破碎成分的角分布.利用Serber模型进行了破碎反应的理论计算,证实了实验中高能成分的t来自于⁶He的直接破碎反应.利用Fermi破碎模型计算了⁶He中各破碎反应道基于相空间的百分比产额,进而估算出⁶He初态中t+t结构的概率约占1/3, 而⁴He核心加价中子的组态约占2/3.