基于辟谣机制的时滞谣言传播模型的动力学分析

在社交网络谣言传播模型中,考虑到辟谣机制和时滞效应对网络谣言传播的影响,建立基于辟谣机制和时滞效应的SIR谣言传播模型.利用再生矩阵谱半径方法得到R0;根据二次函数图像特征给出谣言盛行平衡点存在的条件;通过特征值理论和Routh-Hurwitz判据确定无谣言平衡点和谣言盛行平衡点的局部稳定性以及发生Hopf分支的条件;数值仿真结果表明政府和媒体发布的辟谣信息会加快谣言收敛的速度和降低谣言传播者的最大密度.     

在线社交网络中谣言的传播与抑制

根据真实在线社交网络中谣言的传播特点以及有疾病潜伏期的传染病模型,提出一个新的基于在线社交网络的谣言传播SEIR模型.首先建立基于SEIR模型的动力学演化方程组,然后给出一个高效的抑制谣言传播的免疫策略——重要熟人免疫策略.最后在真实在线社交网络Facebook的用户数据集上,结合SEIR模型与动力学演化方程组以及包含重要熟人免疫策略在内的多种免疫策略,对免疫前后谣言传播的演化过程进行计算机仿真.仿真结果表明SEIR模型符合真实在线社交网络的传播特性,且重要熟人免疫策略是解决在线社交网路中谣言抑制问题的最佳方案.     

基于真实信息传播者的谣言传播模型的动力学分析

在谣言传播过程中加入真实信息的传播者,考虑了人们对谣言的遗忘因素,建立了SITR (susceptible-infective-true-removed)谣言传播模型.利用下一代矩阵得到了谣言传播的阈值K_0,证明了K_0 1时无谣言传播者无真实信息传播者平衡点的稳定性,给出了边界平衡点(即有谣言传播者但无真实信息传播者,及无谣言传播者但有真实信息传播者平衡点)存在的条件,以及它们的稳定性,发现了两个边界平衡点出现双稳的区域,获得了不同条件下正平衡点的存在性,及其局部稳定性.最后,通过数值模拟验证了理论结果,模拟分析了真实信息传播者的初始值对谣言传播者的峰值及谣言的持续时间等的影响.     

考虑谣言清除过程的网络谣言传播与抑制

网络谣言传播是网络传播动力学的重要课题之一. 网络谣言传播常常同时混杂谣言感染和谣言清除两个过程, 对这一现象的分析可以帮助我们更好地认识社会网络中的信息传播. 本文在susceptible-infective-refractory谣言传播模型的基础上增加谣言清除者, 定义了谣言感染和谣言清除的规则, 提出SIERsEs谣言传播模型, 建立了模型的平均场方程, 从理论上分析了谣言传播的稳态, 并求解出谣言传播的感染阈值和清除阈值. 仿真计算分析了感染和清除过程同时作用时, 感染率、清除率和网络平均度对谣言传播的影响. 研究发现, 网络平均度过小或过大, 谣言传播稳定后的影响力都将处于低水平. 分析了目标免疫和熟人免疫等传统免疫策略的不足, 针对网络环境下谣言抑制的特点, 提出主动免疫和被动免疫两种网络谣言免疫策略, 并研究了传播者遗忘率、清除者遗忘率和开始免疫时间参数对这两种谣言免疫策略有效性的影响. 需要重视的是: 研究发现一些直观看来有效的谣言抑制措施反而可能提高谣言的影响力. 研究结果有助于深化对于网络传播动力学的理解, 同时为发展有效的网络谣言抑制策略提供新的思路.     

基于移动社交网络的谣言传播动力学研究

本文在CSR传播模型的基础上提出基于移动社交网络的CSR的谣言传播模型. 改进了CSR模型的传播规则和传播动力学方程, 使得更符合移动SNS上用户的使用习惯. 在CSR模型中的接受概率数学模型基础上, 考虑个人接受阈值对接受概率的影响, 更符合人类接受谣言的心理学特点. 本文对该传播模型进行了理论分析. 并在仿真实验中, 利用多agent仿真平台对新模型和CSR模型以及SIR模型 在匀质网络和异质网络中的传播效果进行了对比研究, 从实验的结果来看, 新的谣言传播模型在匀质网络中传播范围更广, 传播速度更快. 新模型具有初值敏感性的特点. 关键词： 复杂网络 移动社交网络 谣言传播     

无标度网络中最大传染能力限定的病毒传播问题研究

传统的病毒传播模型在无限大无标度网络上不存在病毒传播阈值,即无论病毒的传播速率多么低,病毒始终能够在网络中传播.但研究发现,这个结论是在网络中存在超级传染者的假设下得到的,然而许多真实的无标度网络中并不存在超级传染者.因此,文章提出了一个最大传染能力限定的病毒传播模型,并从理论上证明了在最大传染能力限定的无限大无标度网络上,病毒传播阈值是存在的;同时,也分析了最大传染能力限定下非零传播阈值与有限规模网络下非零传播阈值的本质区别,并解释了为什么人们总是认为传统病毒传播模型对许多真实网络病毒感染程度估计过高的 关键词： 无标度网络 最大传染能力 传播阈值 感染程度     

基于复杂网络理论的微博用户关系网络演化模型研究

微博给人们提供便利的同时也产生了较大的负面影响.为获取微博谣言的传播规律,进而采取有效措施防控其传播,本文基于复杂网络理论研究微博用户关系网络的内部特征,提出一种微博用户关系网络演化模型,借助于平均场理论,分析该演化模型的拓扑统计特性,以及谣言在该演化模型上的传播动力学行为.理论分析和仿真实验表明,由该模型演化生成的微博用户关系网络具有无标度特性.度分布指数不仅与反向连接概率有关,而且还取决于节点的吸引度分布.研究还发现,与指数分布和均匀分布相比,当节点吸引度满足幂律分布时,稳态时的谣言传播程度较大.此外,随着反向连接概率或节点初始连边数量的增加,谣言爆发的概率以及网络中最终接受谣言的节点数量都会明显增大.     

有限步传播范围期望指标判别节点传播影响力

在线社交网络逐渐成为人们不可或缺的重要工具,识别网络中具有高影响力的节点作为初始传播源,在社会感知与谣言控制等方面具有重要意义.本文基于独立级联模型,给出了一个描述有限步传播范围期望的指标-传播度,并设计了一种高效的递推算法.该指标在局部拓扑结构信息的基础上融合了传播概率对影响力进行刻画,能够较好地反映单个节点的传播影响力.对于多传播源影响力极大化问题,本文提出了一种基于传播度的启发式算法-传播度折扣算法,使得多个传播源的联合影响力最大.最后,将上述方法应用到三个真实网络中,与经典指标和方法相比,该方法不需要知道网络的全局结构信息,而是充分了利用网络的局部结构信息,可以较快地筛选出高传播影响力的传播源.     

识别高阶网络传播中最有影响力的节点

识别网络传播中最有影响力的节点是控制传播速度和范围的重要步骤,有助于加速有益信息扩散,抑制流行病、谣言和虚假信息的传播等.已有研究主要基于描述点对交互的低阶复杂网络.然而,现实中个体间的交互不仅发生在点对之间,也发生在3个及以上节点形成的群体中.群体交互可利用高阶网络来刻画,如单纯复形与超图.本文研究单纯复形上最有影响力的传播者识别方法.首先,提出单纯复形上易感-感染-恢复(SIR)微观马尔可夫链方程组,定量刻画单纯复形上的疾病传播动力学.接下来利用微观马尔可夫链方程组计算传播动力学中节点被感染的概率.基于网络结构与传播过程,定义节点的传播中心性,用于排序节点传播影响力.在两类合成单纯复形与4个真实单纯复形上的仿真结果表明,相比于现有高阶网络中心性和复杂网络中最优的中心性指标,本文提出的传播中心性能更准确地识别高阶网络中最有影响力的传播者.     

一种基于用户相对权重的在线社交网络信息传播模型

根据在线社交网络信息传播特点和目前社交网络传播模型研究中存在的问题, 本文定义了网络用户之间的相互影响力函数, 在此基础上提出了一种基于用户相对权重的社交网络信息传播模型, 并对网络中的传播路径及传播过程进行了分析, 讨论了不同路径的信息传播影响力.为验证模型的有效性, 将传统的SIR模型和本文模型在六类不同网络拓扑下进行了仿真实验.仿真结果表明, 两类模型在均匀网络中没有明显差异, 但在非均匀网络中本文模型更能体现真实网络特点, 实验同时验证了节点的地位影响着信息的传播, 并且发现英文社交平台Twitter和中文社交平台新浪微博在拓扑结构上具备一定相似性.     

A Spatial Stochastic Model for Rumor Transmission

We consider an interacting particle system representing the spread of a rumor by agents on the d-dimensional integer lattice. Each agent may be in any of the three states belonging to the set {0,1,2}. Here 0 stands for ignorants, 1 for spreaders and 2 for stiflers. A spreader tells the rumor to any of its (nearest) ignorant neighbors at rate λ. At rate α a spreader becomes a stifler due to the action of other (nearest neighbor) spreaders. Finally, spreaders and stiflers forget the rumor at rate one. We study sufficient conditions under which the rumor either becomes extinct or survives with positive probability.     

SIR rumor spreading model in the new media age

With the prevalence of new media, e.g., microblogging, rumors spread faster and wider than ever before. On the basis of prior studies, this paper modifies a flow chart of the rumor spreading process with the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) model, and thus makes the rumor spreading process more realistic and apparent. The authors believe that ignorants will inevitably change their status once they are made aware of a rumor by spreaders; the probabilities that a spreader becomes a stifler are differentiated in accordance with reality. In the numerical simulation part, the impact that variations of different parameters have on the rumor spreading process will be analyzed.     

Phase Transition for the Maki–Thompson Rumour Model on a Small-World Network

We consider the Maki–Thompson model for the stochastic propagation of a rumour within a population. In this model the population is made up of “spreaders”, “ignorants” and “stiflers”; any spreader attempts to pass the rumour to the other individuals via pair-wise interactions and in case the other individual is an ignorant, it becomes a spreader, while in the other two cases the initiating spreader turns into a stifler. In a finite population the process will eventually reach an equilibrium situation where individuals are either stiflers or ignorants. We extend the original hypothesis of homogenously mixed population by allowing for a small-world network embedding the model, in such a way that interactions occur only between nearest-neighbours. This structure is realized starting from a k-regular ring and by inserting, in the average, c additional links in such a way that k and c are tuneable parameters for the population architecture. We prove that this system exhibits a transition between regimes of localization (where the final number of stiflers is at most logarithmic in the population size) and propagation (where the final number of stiflers grows algebraically with the population size) at a finite value of the network parameter c. A quantitative estimate for the critical value of c is obtained via extensive numerical simulations.     

SIHR rumor spreading model in social networks

There are significant differences between rumor spreading and epidemic spreading in social networks, especially with consideration of the mutual effect of forgetting and remembering mechanisms. In this paper, a new rumor spreading model, Susceptible-Infected-Hibernator-Removed (SIHR) model, is developed. The model extends the classical Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) rumor spreading model by adding a direct link from ignorants to stiflers and a new kind of people-Hibernators. We derive mean-field equations that describe the dynamics of the SIHR model in social networks. Then a steady-state analysis is conducted to investigate the final size of the rumor spreading under various spreading rate, stifling rate, forgetting rate, and average degree of the network. We discuss the spreading threshold and find the relationship between the final size of the rumor and two probabilities. Also Runge-Kutta method is used for numerical simulation which shows that the direct link from the ignorants to the stiflers advances the rumor terminal time and reduces the maximum rumor influence. Moreover, the forgetting and remembering mechanisms of hibernators postpone the rumor terminal time and reduce the maximum rumor influence.     

An epidemic model of rumor diffusion in online social networks

So far, in some standard rumor spreading models, the transition probability from ignorants to spreaders is always treated as a constant. However, from a practical perspective, the case that individual whether or not be infected by the neighbor spreader greatly depends on the trustiness of ties between them. In order to solve this problem, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model of the rumor diffusion, in which the infectious probability is defined as a function of the strength of ties. Moreover, we investigate numerically the behavior of the model on a real scale-free social site with the exponent γ = 2.2. We verify that the strength of ties plays a critical role in the rumor diffusion process. Specially, selecting weak ties preferentially cannot make rumor spread faster and wider, but the efficiency of diffusion will be greatly affected after removing them. Another significant finding is that the maximum number of spreaders max(S) is very sensitive to the immune probability μ and the decay probability v. We show that a smaller μ or v leads to a larger spreading of the rumor, and their relationships can be described as the function ln(max(S)) = Av + B, in which the intercept B and the slope A can be fitted perfectly as power-law functions of μ. Our findings may offer some useful insights, helping guide the application in practice and reduce the damage brought by the rumor.     

Ergodic stationary distribution of a stochastic rumor propagation model with general incidence function

In daily lives, when emergencies occur, rumors will spread widely on the internet. However, it is quite difficult for the netizens to distinguish the truth of the information. The main reasons are the uncertainty of netizens' behavior and attitude, which make the transmission rates of these information among social network groups be not fixed. In this paper, we propose a stochastic rumor propagation model with general incidence function. The model can be described by a stochastic differential equation. Applying the Khasminskii method via a suitable construction of Lyapunov function, we first prove the existence of a unique solution for the stochastic model with probability one. Then we show the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution of the rumor model, which exhibits the ergodicity. We also provide some numerical simulations to support our theoretical results. The numerical results give us some possible methods to control rumor propagation. Firstly, increasing noise intensity can effectively reduce rumor propagation when $\widehat{\mathcal{R}}$₀>1. That is, after rumors spread widely on social network platforms, government intervention and authoritative media coverage will interfere with netizens' opinions, thus reducing the degree of rumor propagation. Secondly, speed up the rumor refutation, intensify efforts to refute rumors, and improve the scientific quality of netizen (i.e., increase the value of β and decrease the value of α and γ), which can effectively curb the rumor propagation.     

Reliability and Efficiency of Generalized Rumor Spreading Model on Complex Social Networks

We introduce the generalized rumor spreading model and investigate some properties of this model on different complex social networks. Despite pervious rumor models that both the spreader-spreader (SS) and the spreader-stifler (SR) interactions have the same rate α, we define α⁽¹⁾ and α⁽²⁾ for SS and SR interactions, respectively. The effect of variation of α⁽¹⁾ and α⁽²⁾ on the final density of stiflers is investigated. Furthermore, the influence of the topological structure of the network in rumor spreading is studied by analyzing the behavior of several global parameters such as reliability and efficiency. Our results show that while networks with homogeneous connectivity patterns reach a higher reliability, scale-free topologies need a less time to reach a steady state with respect the rumor.     

Rumor spreading model considering forgetting and remembering mechanisms in inhomogeneous networks

The SIHR rumor spreading model with consideration of the forgetting and remembering mechanisms was studied in homogeneous networks. We further investigate the properties of the SIHR model in inhomogeneous networks. The SIHR model is refined and mean-field equations are derived to describe the dynamics of the rumor spreading model in inhomogeneous networks. Steady-state analysis is carried out, which shows no spreading threshold existing. Numerical simulations are conducted in a BA scale-free network. The simulation results show that the network topology exerts significant influences on the rumor spreading: In comparison with the ER network, the rumor spreads faster and the final size of the rumor is smaller in BA scale-free network; the forgetting and remembering mechanisms greatly impact the final size of the rumor. Finally, through the numerical simulation, we examine the effects that the spreading rate and the stifling rate have on the the influence of the rumor. In addition, the no threshold result is verified.