Long-period variations in the characteristics of frontal zones in the north Atlantic and their relation to solar activity and cosmic ray variations

The oscillations of the temperature gradients with the periods of ～10 and ～22 years have been detected in the Arctic frontal zone near the Greenland coasts. It has been shown that geomagnetic activity and the rate of variations in the GCR flux in the 11-year solar cycle are the main factors affecting the temperature contrasts in the frontal zone. It has been noted that the detected variations in the frontal zone temperature characteristics are important for the formation of the solar activity effects on the intensity of extratropical cyclogenesis.     

The activity of the solar atmosphere and solar-type stars at 11-year and quasi-biennial timescales

Observations of a time series of solar activity indices are compared with new simultaneous observations of the flux variations of the photospheric and chromospheric emissions of 33 stars during the HK project that were conducted over the past 20 years. In addition to the known cyclic chromospheric emissions of stars in the 11-year time scale, which was discovered at the Mount Wilson Observatory and Stanford University, we found a recurrence that is similar to the quasi-biennial variations of solar radiation fluxes. The results of calculations of the of radiation flux variation periods of stars at the quasi-biennial scale are given.     

Solar diurnal anisotropy measured using muons in GRAPES-3 experiment in 2006

The GRAPES-3 experiment at Ooty contains a large-area (560 m²) tracking muon detector. This detector consists of 16 modules, each 35 m² in area, that are grouped into four supermodules of 140 m² each. The threshold energy of muons is sec(θ) GeV along a direction with zenith angle θ and the angular resolution of the muon detector is 6°. Typically, it records ~4×10⁹ muons every day. The muon detector has been operating uninterruptedly since 2001, thus providing a high statistics record of the cosmic ray flux as a function of time over one decade. However, prior to using these data, the muon rate has to be corrected for two important atmospheric effects, namely, variations in atmospheric pressure and temperature. Because of the near equatorial location of Ooty (11.4°N), the seasonal variations in the atmospheric temperature are relatively small and shall be ignored here. Due to proximity to the equator, the pressure changes at Ooty display a dominant 12 h periodic behaviour in addition to other seasonal changes. Here, we discuss various aspects of a novel method for accurate pressure measurement and subsequent corrections applied to the GRAPES-3 muon data to correct these pressure-induced variations. The pressure-corrected muon data are used to measure the profile of the solar diurnal anisotropy during 2006. The data, when divided into four segments, display significant variation both in the amplitude (~45%) and phase (~42 m) of the solar diurnal anisotropy during 2006, which was a period of relatively low solar activity.     

Modulation of electrons and positrons in 2006–2015 in the PAMELA experiment

The PAMELA magnetic spectrometer was launched aboard the Resurs DK-1 satellite into a nearpolar circumterrestrial orbit with an altitude of 350–600 km to study fluxes of the particles and antiparticles of cosmic rays in the wide energy range of ~80 MeV to several hundred gigaelectronvolts. The results from observations of temporal variations in electron and positron fluxes in 2006–2015 are presented. The ratio of electron and positron fluxes measured in this time interval reveals a dependence on the rigidity of particles, the solar activity, and the polarity of the solar magnetic field.     

Radiation dose measurements aboard the Mir using the R-16 instrument

Data from the R-16 radiation dosimeter mounted to the outside of the Mir space station are analyzed to determine the radiation environment and absorbed radiation dose inside Mir during the 22nd solar cycle. The outcome of the analysis demonstrated that data could be collected over a long period, dynamics of the daily mean absorbed doses correlated well with parameters of solar activity, seasonal variations of absorbed doses during the solar cycle were clearly observed, during periods of unfavorable conditions the absorbed dose rate within the living modules can reach up to 30 mrad/min for more than 10 minutes, and overall, the radiation environment inside the space station was low.     

Analysis of ground level enhancement on January 6, 2014

Variations in the rigidity spectrum and anisotropy of cosmic rays during ground level enhancement (GLE) on January 6, 2014, is investigated using ground-based observations of cosmic rays (CRs) from the worldwide network of stations and spacecraft measurements obtained via a spectrographic global survey. The CR rigidity spectrum and relative variations in the intensity of CRs with rigidity of 4 GV are presented in the solar–ecliptic geocentric coordinate system in certain periods of the investigated event. It is shown that protons were accelerated during this GLE up to a particle rigidity of R ~ 2.4 GV. In the ~0.3 to ~2.4 GV range of rigidity, the CR differential rigidity spectra during the considered event were described by neither a power function nor an exponential function of particle rigidity. At the time of GLE, the Earth was in a loop-like IMF structure.     

Solar activity over last ten thousand years based on the data of <Superscript>10</Superscript>Be and <Superscript>14</Superscript>C cosmogeneous isotopes

The data on the ¹⁰Be accumulation rate in Greenland glacier (GRIP project) are discussed. Spectral analysis of the data over the last 9000 years is carried out. The spectral line intensity in the low-frequency range (periods from 100 to 1000 years) is much higher (approximately by a factor of 20), than in the frequency range of the 11-year solar activity cycle. This fact suggests that the processes responsible for the variations in the ¹⁰Be production rate with a time scale of 100–1000 years significantly differ from those determining the 11-year cyclicity of solar activity.     

Solar-neutrino variations: A manifestation of nonzero neutrino mass and magnetic moment, and mixing

Time variations of solar neutrino flux are investigated on the basis of available Homestake experimental data for more than two solar cycles (1970–1994). At first, we determine (with the weight-time function by taking into account ³⁷Ar decay), for each solar neutrino run n, the effective Earth’s heliolatitude L _eff(n), the effective Zurich sunspots number Z _eff(n), the effective latitude of sunspots distribution Λ_eff(n), and the effective surfaces of sunspots in different heliolatitude belts. Then, we consider the correlation of solar-electron-neutrino fluxes with these parameters for different periods of solar activity. It is found that correlation coefficients change sign in different periods of solar activity, so that for total period 1970–1994 the correlation coefficient is very small. The obtained information indicates that a neutrino should have nonzero mass and nonzero magnetic moment.     

Disturbances of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere caused by acoustic-gravity wave sources in the lower atmosphere

The results of observations of acoustic-gravity waves in the troposphere and the ionosphere at middle latitudes during periods of passage of the solar terminator are presented. Tropospheric observations were performed using a lidar. The frequency characteristics of variations of the tropospheric parameters are determined based on observations of the intensity of the scattered lidar signal. The characteristics of variations of the total electron content (TEC) in the atmosphere are determined from data collected by GPS navigation satellites. An analysis of the observational data showed that the spectrum of variations of the atmospheric and ionospheric parameters is indicative of acoustic-gravity waves (AGW) propagating from the lower atmosphere. Modeling studies of the vertical propagation of AGW from the Earth’s surface showed that such waves quickly (within ~15 min) reach altitudes of the upper atmosphere (~300 km). The refraction and dissipation of waves in the upper atmosphere produces perturbations of the background state of the atmosphere and gives rise to the waveguide propagation of infrasonic wave components. The observed manifestations of TEC disturbances caused by AGW propagating from the lower atmosphere can be explained by the diurnal variation of the altitude of the ionosphere and the waveguide propagation of infrasonic waves.     

Effect of solar activity and cosmic-ray variations on the position of the Arctic front in the North Atlantic

The long-period variations in the climatic position of the Arctic front in the North Atlantic have been investigated. It is found that oscillations of the Arctic front latitude near Greenland occur with main periods of ～80, ～44, and ～22 years; this finding indicates possible relationship of these oscillations with the solar activity and variations in galactic cosmic rays. It is shown that the secular oscillations of the Arctic front latitude can be responsible for the amplitude modulation of the 11-year harmonic in sea-level pressure variations in the North Atlantic.     

Monitoring temporal and spatial variations in galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) in the inner heliosphere from data on cosmogenic radionuclides in freshly-fallen meteorites

Meteorite data on monitoring the variations in GCR gradients at 2–4 AU from the Sun over the period 1957–2010 demonstrate the effect of the inversion of solar magnetic fields (SMFs) during the solar maximum periods of 11-year solar cycles on the depth of GCR modulation in the heliosphere.     

Contributions from changes in various solar indices in cycles 20–23 and 24 to the modulation of cosmic rays

The modulation of cosmic rays (CRs) observed at neutron monitors during the minimum, growth, maximum, and beginning of the decay of solar activity (SA) of cycle 24 (2008–2015) is compared to the modulation of CRs in the same periods of SA of cycles 20–23. After a prolonged minimum of SA between cycles 23 and 24 in 2007–2009 and the maximum of CRs at the end of 2009, when CR intensity exceeded the previous four CR maxima, the SA growth phase displayed weaker modulation of CRs than in the corresponding periods of the previous cycles. The shorter variations in CRs (oscillations with variable periods and activity spikes) were clearer against the background of the reduction in the 11-year variation during SA growth in 2011–2014. The current SA cycle (24) saw a scenario with two SA maxima, and the CRs showed one minimum at the end of 2014 that differed from the maximum of 2009 by ≈12% for particles with a rigidity of 10 GV. CR modulation in the last cycle was the weakest since neutron monitors began operating. At the beginning of 2015, the CRs started to recover. Possible reasons for the unusually weak CR modulation are considered. Quantitative estimates are made of the contribution from different characteristics of the solar magnetic field to CR modulation in the period of cycle 24 under study and in the corresponding periods of solar cycles 20–23, and the estimates are compared.     

Comment on "Strong signature of the active Sun in 100 years of terrestrial insolation data" by W. Weber

An analysis of ground-based observations of solar irradiance was recently published in this journal, reporting an apparent increase of solar irradiance on the ground of the order of 1% between solar minima and maxima [1]. Since the corresponding variations in total solar irradiance on top of the atmosphere are accurately determined from satellite observations to be of the order of 0.1% only [2], the one order of magnitude stronger effect in the terrestrial insolation data was interpreted as evidence for cosmic-ray induced aerosol formation in the atmosphere. In my opinion, however, this result does not reflect reality. Using the energy budget of Earth's surface, I show that changes of ground-based insolation with the solar cycle of the order of 1% between solar minima and maxima would result in large surface air temperature variations which are inconsistent with the instrumental record. It would appear that the strong variations of terrestrial irradiance found by [1] are due to the uncorrected effects of volcanic or local aerosols and seasonal variations. Taking these effects into account, I find a variation of terrestrial insolation with solar activity which is of the same order as the one measured from space, bringing the surface energy budget into agreement with the solar signal detected in temperature data.     

Diurnal and Eleven- Year Variations of Neutron Component of Cosmic Rays

Cosmic ray ground observations are used together with the method of coupling coefficients to determine, by spectrographic method, the features of the variational primary energy spectrum of diurnal and eleven-year variations of neutron component of cosmic rays. It is found that the variational energy spectrum responsible for both types of variations can be best described by a constant spectrum up to an upper effective rigidity boundary. The upper cut-off effective rigidity boundary for the variational energy spectrum of diurnal variation was found to change from 105 GV at maximum solar activity to 15.85 GV at minimum solar activity. For Eleven-year variation, R_max was found to have a value of about 20 GV which changes slighly with solar activity due to the change of the coupling coefficients with solar activity.     

Phase fluctuations model for EM wave propagation through solar scintillation at superior solar conjunction

Traveling solar wind disturbances have a significant influence on radio wave characteristics during the superior solar conjunction communication. This paper considers the impact of solar scintillation on phase fluctuations of electromagnetic (EM) wave propagation during the superior solar conjunction. Based on the Geometric Optics approximation, the close-form approximation model for phase fluctuations is developed. Both effects of anisotropic temporal variations function of plasma irregularities and their power spectrum are presented and analyzed numerically. It is found that phase fluctuations rapidly decrease with increasing Sun–Earth–Probe angle and decrease with increasing frequency at the rate of 1/f². Moreover, the role of various features of the solar wind irregularities and their influence on the EM wave characteristic parameters is studied and discussed. Finally, we study the phase fluctuations of typical cases in order to better understand the impact of phase fluctuations in future deep space communication scenarios during solar conjunction periods.     

Patterns of cosmogenic radionuclide production rates in the heliosphere and problems of solar modulation on a long time scale

The results of long-term studies of cosmogenic radionuclide production rates along the orbits of 39 chondrites that fell to the Earth between 1959 and 2013 are presented. They constitute a long series of homogeneous data, a statistical smoothing of which demonstrate some general patterns of the distribution and variations of Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) with energy >100 MeV in the inner (<5 AU) heliosphere. A correlation analysis of the production rates of radionuclides with different half-lives suggests that the solar GCR modulation mechanism is constant over at least ~1 million years. The role of stochastic factors in the polarity reversal of the general solar magnetic field for the phases of maximum solar activity has been revealed. The subtle sensitivity of the ⁵⁴Mn production rate in the Chelyabinsk chondrite to the short-term closure of the heliosphere for positively charged particles over 14 months between June 2012 and July 2013 is used as an example to show the high resolution of the method of using cosmogenic radionuclides in meteorites as natural GCR detectors.     

Observations of Acoustic Gravity Waves during the Solar Eclipse of March 20, 2015 in Kaliningrad

Results of observations of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters during the solar eclipse of March 20, 2015 have been described. The observations have been conducted by lidar sensing in the lower atmosphere and analysis of the total electron content (TEC) in the ionosphere in Kaliningrad. Observations at the troposphere altitudes have been conducted using an atmospheric lidar. Ionospheric parameter TEC has been determined according to observations of navigation satellite signals. The spectral analysis of the monitored parameters during the solar eclipse has shown that, in the lower atmosphere and the ionosphere in a period range of 2–20 min, internal gravity waves (IGWs) and infrasonic waves are excited. During the main phase of the eclipse, the major contribution to variations in the parameters of the medium comes from infrasonic vibrations. Changes in the variations in the atmospheric and ionospheric parameters with IGW periods are observed only in the initial and final phases of the eclipse.     

Ion abundances of low-energy quiet period particle fluxes at 1 AU

The ion abundances of charged particle fluxes with energies of 0.032–1.28 MeV/nucleon during the quiet period of solar activity are investigated using spacecraft data. The values of Fe/O ratios obtained in 35 such periods in the 23rd solar cycle are compared with the mean ion abundances in the solar corona, in the gradual and impulsive solar energetic particle events, and in the solar wind. It is believed that coronal holes near the equator could be one of possible source of background low energy particle fluxes.     

Cyclic Variations in the Solar Radiation Fluxes at the Beginning of the 21st Century

The solar activity in the current, that is, the 24th, sunspot cycle is analyzed. Cyclic variations in the sunspot number (SSN) and radiation fluxes in various spectral ranges have been estimated in comparison with the general level of the solar radiation, which is traditionally determined by the radio emission flux F_10.7 at a wavelength of 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz). The comparative analysis of the variations in the solar constant and solar indices in the UV range, which are important for modeling the state of the Earth’s atmosphere, in the weak 24th cycle and strong 22nd and 23rd cycles has shown relative differences in the amplitudes of variations from the minimum to the maximum of the cycle. The influence of the hysteresis effect between the activity indices and F_10.7 in the 24th cycle, which is taken into account here, makes it possible to refine the forecast of the UV indices and solar constant depending on the quadratic regression coefficients that associate the solar indices with F_10.7 depending on the phase of the cycle.     

Spectra of solar neutrons with energies of ~10–1000 MeV in the PAMELA experiment in the flare events of 2006–2015

The first results from measuring the spectra of solar neutrons with energies of ~10–1000 MeV in the solar flares of 2006–2015 observed by the PAMELA international space experiment are presented. The PAMELA neutron detector with ³He counters and a moderator with an area of 0.18 m² allows us to estimate the flux of solar neutrons during solar flares. Solar neutrons with energies of ~10–1000 MeV likely occurred in 21 out of the 24 analyzed flares of 2006–2015.