Bankruptcy prediction by generalized additive models

We compare several accounting‐based models for bankruptcy prediction. The models are developed and tested on large data sets containing annual financial statements for Norwegian limited liability firms. Out‐of‐sample and out‐of‐time validation shows that generalized additive models significantly outperform popular models like linear discriminant analysis, generalized linear models and neural networks at all levels of risk. Further, important issues like default horizon and performance depreciation are examined. We clearly see a performance depreciation as the default horizon is increased and as time goes by. Finally a multi‐year model, developed on all available data from three consecutive years, is compared with a one‐year model, developed on data from the most recent year only. The multi‐year model exhibits a desirable robustness to yearly fluctuations that is not present in the one‐year model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economic order quantity models for ameliorating/deteriorating items under inflation and time discounting

The items that incur a gradual loss in quality or quantity over time while in inventory are usually called deteriorating items. In reality, there are some items whose value or utility or quantity increase with time and those items can be termed as ameliorating items. In this paper, an effort has been made to incorporate these two opposite physical characteristics of stored items into inventory model. We develop models for ameliorating/deteriorating items with time-varying demand pattern over a finite planning horizon, taking into account the effects of inflation and time value of money. Optimal solutions of the proposed models are derived and the effects of amelioration/deterioration on the inventory replenishment policies are studied with the help of numerical examples.     

轴对称Einstein-Maxwell-Dilaton-Axion黑洞熵与能斯特定理

该文利用Ｂｒｉｃｋ Ｗａｌｌ方法，计算轴对称Ｅｉｎｓｔｅｉｎ Ｍａｘｗｅｌｌ Ｄｉｌａｔｏｎ Ａｘｉｏｎ 黑洞背景下标量场的自由能和熵．结果表明，当黑洞具有内外视界时，所得熵不仅与外视界面积有关，而且也是内视界面积的函数．当内视界面积于零时，可回到已知结论．并且表明，用内外视界位置参量表达的熵，在黑洞辐射温度趋于绝对零度时，黑洞的熵也趋于零，它满足能斯特定理，可视为黑洞的普朗克绝对熵．     

Dynamic pricing and inventory control: robust vs. stochastic uncertainty models—a computational study

In this paper, we consider a variety of models for dealing with demand uncertainty for a joint dynamic pricing and inventory control problem in a make-to-stock manufacturing system. We consider a multi-product capacitated, dynamic setting, where demand depends linearly on the price. Our goal is to address demand uncertainty using various robust and stochastic optimization approaches. For each of these approaches, we first introduce closed-loop formulations (adjustable robust and dynamic programming), where decisions for a given time period are made at the beginning of the time period, and uncertainty unfolds as time evolves. We then describe models in an open-loop setting, where decisions for the entire time horizon must be made at time zero. We conclude that the affine adjustable robust approach performs well (when compared to the other approaches such as dynamic programming, stochastic programming and robust open loop approaches) in terms of realized profits and protection against constraint violation while at the same time it is computationally tractable. Furthermore, we compare the complexity of these models and discuss some insights on a numerical example.     

The one-dimensional cutting stock problem with due dates

The one-dimensional cutting stock problem is the problem of cutting stock material into shorter lengths, in order to meet demand for these shorter lengths while minimizing waste. In industrial cutting operations, it may also be necessary to fill the orders for these shorter lengths before a given due date. We propose new optimization models and solution procedures which solve the cutting stock problem when orders have due dates. We evaluate our approach using data from a large manufacturer of reinforcement steel and show that we are able to solve industrial-size problems, while also addressing common cutting considerations such as aggregation of orders, multiple stock lengths and cutting different types of material on the same machine. In addition, we evaluate operational performance in terms of resulting waste and tardiness of orders using our model in a rolling horizon framework.     

A comparison of strategies to develop a customer default scoring model

Behavioural scoring models are generally used to estimate the probability that a customer of a financial institution who owns a credit product will default on this product in a fixed time horizon. However, one single customer usually purchases many credit products from an institution while behavioural scoring models generally treat each of these products independently. In order to make credit risk management easier and more efficient, it is interesting to develop customer default scoring models. These models estimate the probability that a customer of a certain financial institution will have credit issues with at least one product in a fixed time horizon. In this study, three strategies to develop customer default scoring models are described. One of the strategies is regularly utilized by financial institutions and the other two will be proposed herein. The performance of these strategies is compared by means of an actual data bank supplied by a financial institution and a Monte Carlo simulation study.     

Bayesian semiparametric analysis for a single item maintenance optimization

We address the problem of a finite horizon single item maintenance optimization structured as a combination of preventive and corrective maintenance in a nuclear power plant environment. We present Bayesian semiparametric models to estimate the failure time distribution and costs involved. The objective function for the optimization is the expected total cost of maintenance over the pre-defined finite time horizon. Typically, the mathematical modeling of failure times are based on parametric models. These models fail to capture the true underlying relationships in the data; indeed, under a parametric assumption, the hazard rates are treated as unimodal, which, as shown in this paper, is incorrect. Importantly, assuming an increasing failure rate, as is typically done, we show, is way off the mark in the present context. Since hazard and cost estimates feed into the optimization phase, from a risk management perspective, potentially gross errors, resulting from purely parametric models, can be obviated. We show the effectiveness of our approach using real data from the South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) located in Bay City, Texas.     

Pavement rehabilitation scheduling and toll pricing under different regulatory regimes

This paper addresses the highway pavement rehabilitation scheduling and toll pricing issues over a planning horizon. In the highway system concerned, two types of agents are considered, namely highway operator and road users. Two models, which account for different highway regulatory regimes (i.e. public and private), are proposed. In the public regulatory model, the government aims to maximize total discounted social welfare of the transportation system over the planning horizon by determining the optimal pavement rehabilitation schedule and toll level. In the private regulatory regime, a profit-driven private operator seeks to optimize the pavement rehabilitation schedule and toll level to maximize its own discounted net profit over the planning horizon. The proposed models treat the interactions between the highway operator and the road users in the system as a bi-level hierarchical problem in which the upper level is a multi-period pavement rehabilitation scheduling and toll pricing problem, while the lower level is a multi-period route choice equilibrium problem. A heuristic solution algorithm that combines a greedy approach and a sensitivity analysis based approach is developed to solve the proposed bi-level multi-period optimization models. An illustrative example is used to show the applications of the proposed models. The findings show that the highway regulatory regime, pavement deterioration parameter and the roughness-induced vehicle operating cost can significantly affect the pavement rehabilitation schedules and the toll level as well as the performance of transportation system in terms of total life-cycle travel demand, net profit and social welfare.     

Column generation based heuristic for tactical planning in multi-period vehicle routing

The periodic vehicle routing problem (PVRP) consists in establishing a planning of visits to clients over a given time horizon so as to satisfy some service level while optimizing the routes used in each time period. The tactical planning model considered here restricts its attention to scheduling visits and assigning them to vehicles while leaving sequencing decisions for an underlying operational model. The objective is twofold: to optimize regional compactness of the routes in a desire to specialize routes to restricted geographical area and to balance the workload evenly between vehicles. Approximate solutions are constructed using a truncated column generation procedure followed by a rounding heuristic. This mathematical programming based procedure can deal with problems with 50–80 customers over five working days which is the range of size of most PVRP instances treated in the literature with meta-heuristics. The paper highlights the importance of alternative optimization criteria not accounted for in standard operational models and provides insights on the implementation of a column generation based rounding heuristic.     

Simultaneity and non‐linear variability in financial markets: simulation and forecasting

Non‐linear variability in financial markets can emerge from several mechanisms, including simultaneity and time‐varying coefficients. In simultaneous equation systems, the reduced‐form coefficients that determine the behaviour of jointly dependent variables are products and ratios of the original structural coefficients. If the coefficients are stochastic, the resulting multiplicative interactions will result in high degrees of non‐linearity. Processes generated in this way will scale as fractals: they will exhibit intermittent outliers and scaling symmetries, i.e. proportionality relationships between fluctuations at different separation distances. A model is specified in which both the exchange rate itself and the exchange rate residual exhibit simultaneity. The exchange rate depends on other exchange rates, while the residual depends on the other residuals. The model is then simulated using embedding noise from a t‐distribution. The simulations replicate the observed properties of exchange rates, heavy‐tailed distributions and long memory in the variance. A forecasting algorithm is specified in two stages. The first stage is a model for the actual process. In the second stage the residuals are modelled as a function of the predicted rate of change. The first and second stage models are then combined. This algorithm exploits the scaling symmetry: the residual is proportional to the predicted rate of change at separation distances corresponding to the forecast horizon. The procedure is tested empirically on three exchange rates. At a daily frequency and a 1‐day forecast horizon, two‐stage models reduce the forecast error by one fourth. At a 5‐day horizon, the improvement is 10–15 percent. At a weekly frequency, the improvement at the 1‐week horizon is on the order of 30–40 percent. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk-averse dynamic programming for Markov decision processes

We introduce the concept of a Markov risk measure and we use it to formulate risk-averse control problems for two Markov decision models: a finite horizon model and a discounted infinite horizon model. For both models we derive risk-averse dynamic programming equations and a value iteration method. For the infinite horizon problem we develop a risk-averse policy iteration method and we prove its convergence. We also propose a version of the Newton method to solve a nonsmooth equation arising in the policy iteration method and we prove its global convergence. Finally, we discuss relations to min–max Markov decision models.     

Optimal advertising and pricing in a class of general new-product adoption models

In [21], Sethi et al. introduced a particular new-product adoption model. They determine optimal advertising and pricing policies of an associated deterministic infinite horizon discounted control problem. Their analysis is based on the fact that the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation is an ordinary non-linear differential equation which has an analytical solution. In this paper, generalizations of their model are considered. We take arbitrary adoption and saturation effects into account, and solve finite and infinite horizon discounted variations of associated control problems. If the horizon is finite, the HJB-equation is a 1st order non-linear partial differential equation with specific boundary conditions. For a fairly general class of models we show that these partial differential equations have analytical solutions. Explicit formulas of the value function and the optimal policies are derived. The controlled Bass model with isoelastic demand is a special example of the class of controlled adoption models to be examined and will be analyzed in some detail.     

Timetabling of sorting slots in a logistic warehouse

We study a problem that occurs at the end of a logistic stream in a warehouse and which concerns the timetabling of the sorting slots that are used to accommodate the prepared orders before they are dispatched. We consider a set of orders to be prepared in a certain number of preparation shops over a given time horizon. Each order is associated with the truck that will transport it to the customer. A sorting slot is an accumulation area where processed orders wait to be loaded onto a truck. For a given truck a known number of sorting slots is needed from the time the first order for this truck begins to be prepared, right up until the truck’s scheduled departure time. Since several orders destined for different trucks are processed simultaneously, and since the number of sorting slots is limited, the timetabling of these resources is necessary to ensure that all orders can be processed over the considered time horizon. In this paper we describe the general industrial context of the problem and we formalize it. We state that some particular cases of the problem are polynomially solvable while the general problem is NP-complete. We then propose optimization methods for solving the problem.     

Predictive control of nonlinear dynamic processes

Predictive control can be applied if the reference value of the process is known in advance and the deterministic disturbances can be predicted. A cost function defined in the future horizon is minimized. The control signal is calculated for a control horizon, but only the first one is applied and the procedure is repeated (receding horizon strategy). Processes with mild analytical nonlinear characteristics are considered. The possible process models are either nonparametric (linear, Hammerstein, and Volterra weighting function series) or parametric ones (generalized Hammerstein, parametric Volterra, and bilinear models). The algorithms of the optimal and suboptimal predictive control based on the nonparametric and the parametric models mentioned are derived. Several simulations present how effective these methods are. The adaptive case is dealt with as well.     

Optimal scheduling of inspection times in a production process with a finite planning horizon

Inspection models applicable to a finite planning horizon are developed for the following lifetime distributions: uniform, exponential, and Weibull distribution. For a given lifetime distribution, maximization of profit is used as the sole optimization criterion for determining an optimal planning horizon over which a system may be operated as well as ideal inspection times. Illustrative examples (focusing on the uniform and Weibull distributions and using Mathematica programs) are given. For some situations, evenly spreading inspections over the entire planning horizon are seen to result in the attainment of desirable profit levels over a shorter planning horizon. Scope for further research is given as well. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal Pricing and Production Planning for Multi-product Multi-period Systems with Backorders

In this paper, we develop models for production planning with coordinated dynamic pricing. The application that motivated this research is manufacturing pricing, where the products are non-perishable assets and can be stored to fulfill the future demands. We assume that the firm does not change the price list very frequently. However, the developed model and its solution strategy have the capability to handle the general case of manufacturing systems with frequent time-varying price lists. We consider a multi-product capacitated setting and introduce a demand-based model, where the demand is a function of the price. The key parts of the model are that the planning horizon is discrete-time multi-period, and backorders are allowed. As a result of this, the problem becomes a nonlinear programming problem with the nonlinearities in both the objective function and some constraints. We develop an algorithm which computes the optimal production and pricing policy on a finite time horizon. We illustrate the application of the algorithm through a detailed numerical example.     

Cost Comparisons for Out-of-Phase Inventory Models

Inventory costs for a fixed time period have traditionally been determined by allocating total costs per cycle uniformly throughout that cycle as well as any partial cycles. This procedure for cost allocation has led to the solution of numerous inventory problems, most notable of which is the anticipated price-increase model. When comparing two out-of-phase inventory models, if costs are accounted for when they occur over a fixed planning horizon, inventory policies should be changed to reflect the impact of this different cost-allocation procedure. For the anticipated price-increase model, the ‘optimal’ order quantity as well as the implied savings in inventory costs will be different when cost models are developed based on these different cost-allocation methods. If the objective is to maximize over a fixed planning horizon the actual savings in inventory costs as they occur, the cost models presented here should be used.     

Analysing local algorithms in location-aware quasi-unit-disk graphs

A local algorithm with local horizon r is a distributed algorithm that runs in r synchronous communication rounds; here r is a constant that does not depend on the size of the network. As a consequence, the output of a node in a local algorithm only depends on the input within r hops from the node.We give tight bounds on the local horizon for a class of local algorithms for combinatorial problems on unit-disk graphs (UDGs). Most of our bounds are due to a refined analysis of existing approaches, while others are obtained by suggesting new algorithms. The algorithms we consider are based on network decompositions guided by a rectangular tiling of the plane. The algorithms are applied to matching, independent set, graph colouring, vertex cover, and dominating set.We also study local algorithms on quasi-UDGs, which are a popular generalisation of UDGs, aimed at more realistic modelling of communication between the network nodes. Analysing the local algorithms on quasi-UDGs allows one to assume that the nodes know their coordinates only approximately, up to an additive error. Despite the localisation error, the quality of the solution to problems on quasi-UDGs remains the same as for the case of UDGs with perfect location awareness. We analyse the increase in the local horizon that comes along with moving from UDGs to quasi-UDGs.     

A demand-driven method for scheduling optimal smooth production levels

This paper is concerned with demand-driven production scheduling in a commercial environment where smoothed production plans generation over a rolling horizon is desirable as new observations of demand are received through time. Demands are assumed to be normally distributed and dependent on the previous observed levels. The method of chance constraint of Charnes and Cooper is extended to multi-product production planning with variable workforce, back-ordered inventory, and nonstationary stochastic demand process. Bayesian procedures for revising the chance constraints and several variants of linear-programming-based production planning models are presented. In all cases the proposed methodology ensures that demands are satisfied, at a given level of confidence, while achieving smooth production.