基于网络社群学习机制的创新产品团购定价策略研究

创新产品定价是其成功上市的重要影响因素。与传统的撇脂和渗透定价策略相比，基于网络社群学习机制的团购定价策略在满足一定条件下可以同时实现产品利润与市场占有率之间的有效平衡。为了探究这些必要条件，本文研究了网络社群学习效果对消费者购买决策的影响因素，并分别构建了团购定价与撇脂定价的利润比较模型，团购定价与渗透定价的销量比较模型。通过对模型进行仿真实验发现：创新产品团购定价的最优利润和最优销量与社群规模、活跃度、认同度以及交互效率呈正相关，与社群成员异质性呈负相关；当社群规模、活跃度、认同度以及交互效率高于一定阈值，社群成员异质性低于一定阈值时，基于网络社群学习机制的创新产品团购定价策略最优利润高于撇脂定价策略，最优销量高于渗透定价策略，成为优势定价策略。     

基于汇率回报厚尾性的外汇期权定价模型

主要研究汇率回报呈厚尾分布的外汇期权定价问题。本文利用t-分布能捕获汇率回报序列厚尾特征的优势，推导出基于t-分布外汇期权定价模型的解析表达式，即对外汇期权定价模型——BSGK模型进行了修正，同时应用矩估计法估计出的t-分布的自由度用于该定价模型的计算，最后基于t-分布的外汇期权定价模型和BSGK外汇期权定价模型进行了比较分析。     

技术创新与增长期权定价

本采用了净现值(NPV)和实物期权定价方法对一个实际的MMDS的发射放大器项目进行了定价，并对两种方法定价的结果进行了分析和对比。由于实物期权方法定价的结果包含项目中的增长期权和放弃期权的价值，因而实物期权方法定价的结果比NPV方法定价的结果更合理和更高。     

生态工业链定价策略的博弈分析

生态工业链与传统供应链不同，传统供应链中的定价策略在生态工业链中不再适用。为了解决该问题，基于单一上游企业和单一下游企业构成的生态供应链系统，应用博弈理论对上游企业生产产品时产生的副产品或者废物定价策略进行研究。分别得出了一个非合作博弈的均衡解（斯坦克尔伯格均衡）和一个合作博弈的均衡解（联合定价），并进一步对各种定价策略的效率进行了分析。最后对原料短缺时的定价情况进行了讨论。     

国外保险定价的发展及其对我国的借鉴

回顾国外保险定价的发展概况，介绍两种重要的金融定价模型资本资产定价模型和期权定价模型及其在保险定价中的应用，并就我国保险业借鉴国外保险定价先进的思想、方法和技术，发展和完善我国保险定价工作提出建议。     

考虑跨渠道退货的双渠道零售商定价与退货策略研究

本文以零售商线上线下销售和消费者退货并存的销售模式为背景，以零售商利润最大化为目标，构建线上线下统一定价和自主定价的双渠道和跨渠道退货两种不同的定价决策模型，分析了顾客渠道偏好和退货麻烦成本对零售商定价和退货策略选择与利润的影响。研究发现：给定退货麻烦成本，当顾客渠道偏好明显时，零售商应采取自主定价策略，否则应采取统一定价策略。顾客偏好线上渠道时，应该采取跨渠道退货政策；顾客偏好线下渠道时，应采取双渠道退货政策。零售商应根据顾客渠道偏好和退货麻烦成本选择合理的定价策略和退货策略，保证其利润最大化。本文研究对于采用线上线下渠道销售并允许退货的零售商设置最合理的退货方式和最优定价策略有一定的实际应用价值。     

Hull-White模型在次级债定价中的应用研究

美国次级债危机引起了全球金融市场的动荡，这使得国内外风险管理者们不得不更加关注由于信用风险带来的种种问题。在我国还没有一种公认的理论或方法能够实际解决信用风险的定价问题。本文力图寻找一种不完全依赖于信用评级的信用风险定价方法，利用市场即时信息而不是历史信息对信用风险溢价进行估算，从而寻找到一套在中国市场具有操作性的信用风险定价方法。本文应用三叉树模拟的方法来构建基于Hull-White模型的信用风险定价模型，并应用市场数据对两类次级债基础衍生品进行了定价。这一研究具有较好的可操作性，对中国信用风险定价研究领域提供了有利补充，为中国证券市场动态信用风险管理提供新的思路和可能的解决渠道。     

最小叉熵优化模型在保险定价中的应用研究

为了更加合理解决保险定价问题，本文引入金融风险中性定价思想，提出新的保险定价方法。在不完全的保险市场，利用信息论领域中推测概率分布的最小叉熵优化模型，对经验损失分布进行调整，得到保险风险中性最小叉熵密度，进而确定新的保费。结果表明最小叉熵密度使高风险的比例增大，这体现了风险中性的本质。该保险定价方法的形式是确定的，且所建的最小叉熵优化模型具有灵活、简便的特性。     

风险厌恶下的供应链定价策略分析

在市场需求受价格影响的假设下，建立了一个供应商和零售商都是风险厌恶的两阶段供应链模型，利用确定性等价方法得到了分散决策下的最优定价策略，同时也给出了对于第二类效用函数存在改进性定价策略的判定条件。并通过数值分析讨论了需求不确定性对供应商和零售商的定价策略和期望效用的影响。     

基于演化博弈的武器装备研制合同定价模型研究

针对合同的动态性，提出利用基于演化博弈建立定价模型。考虑到决策群体中个体的认识误差，对所建立的定价模型进行修正，建立带偏离的定价模型并分析了偏离对均衡解的影响。最后将以上模型应用实例进行比较分析。     

Utilization and maintenance in a model with scrapping

We consider a productive asset, called equipment or capital good, and we examine the properties of, as well as the interactions between, the operating policies, which are determined by its optimal utilization and maintenance, and the capital policy of scrapping, which defines the optimal time when the productive asset is retired from its current use. Starting with an abstract model and using the approach of optimal control, initially we characterize the various types of equipment by assigning to them a single total profit index, which indicates how the above policies affect the flow of operating revenues plus capital gains or losses. This index is a function of market-determined prices. So using it we then investigate how the operating and capital policies are influenced by the rate of discount, the price of new equipment, and the rise or fall of the price of new equipment relative to the value of its output. Among other interesting results, we find that the effects of these prices on the nature and interactions of optimal policies depend crucially on whether the equipment is of the usual profit making type, where output is the main source of revenue, or of the antique type, where the main source of revenue is capital gains.     

Moment information for probability distributions,without solving the moment problem,II: Main-mass,tails and shape approximation

How much information does a small number of moments carry about the unknown distribution function? Is it possible to explicitly obtain from these moments some useful information, e.g., about the support, the modality, the general shape, or the tails of a distribution, without going into a detailed numerical solution of the moment problem? In this, previous and subsequent papers, clear and easy to implement answers will be given to some questions of this type. First, the question of how to distinguish between the main-mass interval and the tail regions, in the case we know only a number of moments of the target distribution function, will be addressed. The answer to this question is based on a version of the Chebyshev–Stieltjes–Markov inequality, which provides us with upper and lower, moment-based, bounds for the target distribution. Then, exploiting existing asymptotic results in the main-mass region, an explicit, moment-based approximation of the target probability density function is provided. Although the latter cannot be considered, in general, as a satisfactory solution, it can always serve as an initial approximation in any iterative scheme for the numerical solution of the moment problem. Numerical results illustrating all the theoretical statements are also presented.     

卷烟材料组合搭配对主流烟气量及过滤效率的影响

为研究卷烟纸、成型纸、接装纸及嘴棒组合搭配对"中式卷烟"焦油量、烟气烟碱量、烟气水分、烟气一氧化碳量及过滤效率的影响,尝试采用L_(27)(3~(13))裂区正交设计方法对RR卷烟进行在线试验和取样.检测结果经过直观分析、方差分析及贡献率分析,结果表明:嘴棒长度、吸阻及接装纸透气度是影响试验指标的高度显著因素及重要因素.所以重点对嘴棒长度、吸阻及接装纸透气度进行调整和控制,可以很好地实现卷烟产品的质量控制,减少产品质量波动,降低产品成本.使用该方法可快捷、高效、经济、准确地寻找并确定卷烟材料多因素对卷烟主流烟气量及过滤效率的影响规律及卷烟产品的材料搭配优化方案.从而实现卷烟产品材料搭配精益化,满足烟草企业的实际需求.     

Personae at play. ‘Men of Mathematics’ in commentary

Mathematical writers, above all, Euclid, tend to present their theorems as decontextualized, abstract propositions, which has become the standard modus of textual presentation in theoretical mathematics. Mathematical commentators, however, provide their readers with personal names and historical facts in order to elucidate problems, provide contexts of discovery, or construct doxographies, among other things. Modern readers have used such information for the construction of histories of science. When we look at these passages, however, we see that personal names and information about mathematicians of the past can serve quite a range of different objectives, such as the strategic self-positioning of the commentator vis-à-vis the past or present of mathematics, the education of the reader, mathematical or moral, the construction of the history of the field, etc. Not only does the commentator present a persona of himself to the reader, he can also turn colleagues and predecessors into personae. This paper attempts to elucidate the practice, by offering four examples of such plays of and with personae, in Pappus, Eutocius, al-Nayrīzī, and Proclus.     

Formulation of linear problems and solution by a universal machine

Using the predicate language for ordered fields a class of problems referred to aslinear problems is defined. This class contains, for example, all systems of linear equations and inequalities, all linear programming problems, all integer programming problems with bounded variables, all linear complementarity problems, the testing of whether sets that are defined by linear inequalities are semilattices, all satisfiability problems in sentenial logic, the rank-computation of matrices, the computation of row-reduced echelon forms of matrices, and all quadratic programming problems with bounded variables. A single, one, algorithm, to which we refer as theUniversal Linear Machine, is described. It solves any instance of any linear problem. The Universal Linear Machine runs in two phases. Given a linear problem, in the first phase a Compiler running on a Turing Machine generates alinear algorithm for the problem. Then, given an instance of the linear problem, in the second phase the linear algorithm solves the particular instance of the linear problem. The linear algorithm is finite, deterministic, loopless and executes only the five ordered field operations — additions, multiplications, subtractions, divisions and comparisons. Conversely, we show that for each linear algorithm there is a linear problem which the linear algorithm solves uniquely. Finally, it is shown that with a linear algorithm for a linear problem, one can solve certain parametric instances of the linear problem.Research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation Grant DMS 92-07409, by the Department of Energy Grant DE-FG03-87-ER-25028, by the United States—Israel Binational Science Foundation Grant 90-00434 and by ONR Grant N00014-92-J1142.Corresponding author.     

Variation of the structure and permeability of tensioned fiber layers during impregnation with a thermoplastic polymer melt

The influence of displacements of tensioned fibers on the impregnation of fibrous layers with a polymer melt and on the final composite structure is studied. Using computer simulation, it is shown that, during impregnation, the structure of tensioned fibrous layers changes considerably depending on the initial arrangement and tensioning of fibers. The consolidated regions formed under the melt front move inside the impregnated layer with the advancing melt front. Displacement of the tensioned fibers as well as the formation of “washouts” favors the impregnation of internal layers, but cause significant inhomogeneity of the polymer structure. The surface (on the side of the melt flow) regions are more saturated with the polymer than the internal ones. A difference in the melt percolation mechanisms at various impregnation regimes is revealed. The effective permeability coefficients of a tensioned fiber layer are not constant but depend on the conditions and regimes of impregnation. Submitted to the 11th Conference on the Mechanics of Composite Materials (Riga, June 11–15, 2000). Translated from Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 259–270, March–April, 2000.     

Wave parameter identification problem for ocean test structure data,part 2, discrete formulation

This paper deals with the solution of the wave parameter identification problem for ocean test structure data. A discrete formulation is assumed. An ocean test structure is considered, and wave elevation and velocities are assumed to be measured with a number of sensors. Within the frame of linear wave theory, a Fourier series model is chosen for the wave elevation and velocities. Then, the following problem is posed: Find the amplitudes of the various wave components of specified frequency and direction, so that the assumed model of wave elevation and velocities provides the best fit to the measured data. Here, the term best fit is employed in the least-square sense over a given time interval.At each time instant, the wave representation involves four indexes (frequency, direction, instrument, time); hence, four-dimensional arrays are required. This formal difficulty can be avoided by switching to an alternative representation involving only two indexes (frequency-direction, instrument-time); hence, standard vector-matrix notation can be used. Within this frame, optimality conditions are derived for the amplitudes of the assumed wave model.A characteristic of the wave parameter identification problem is that the condition number of the system matrix can be large. Therefore, the numerical solution is not an easy task and special procedures must be employed. Specifically, Gaussian elimination is avoided and advantageous use is made of the Householder transformation, in the light of the least-square nature of the problem and the discretized approach to the problem.Numerical results are presented. The effect of various system parameters (number of frequencies, number of directions, sampling time, number of sensors, and location of sensors) is investigated in connection with global or strong accuracy, local or weak accuracy, integral accuracy, and condition number of the system matrix.From the numerical experiments, it appears that the wave parameter identification problem has a unique solution if the number of directions is smaller than or equal to the number of sensors; it has an infinite number of solutions otherwise. In the case where a unique solution exists, the condition number of the system matrix increases as the size of the system increases, and this has a detrimental effect on the accuracy. However, the accuracy can be improved by proper selection of the sampling time and by proper choice of the number and location of the sensors.Generally speaking, the computations done for the discrete case exhibit better accuracy than the computations done for the continuous case (Ref. 5). This improved accuracy is a direct consequence of having used advantageously the Householder transformation and is obtained at the expense of increased memory requirements and increased CPU time.This work was supported by Exxon Production Research Company, Houston, Texas. This paper is based partly on Refs. 1–4.     

提高维吾尔文搜索质量的一些关键技术研究

维吾尔语和土耳其语、乌兹别克语、哈萨克语等同属于阿尔泰语系突厥语分支,是一种粘着型语言,具有丰富的构词合构形附加成分.主要分布于中国新疆维吾尔自治区,以及中西亚地区的维吾尔族使用.目前使用基于阿拉伯文字母的维吾尔文.当前用google,bing等搜索引擎搜索维吾尔文时搜索结果不包括该词语的构词合构形附加成分等其它形式.严重影响了搜索结果的准确性.通过词干提取和词缀附加生成词语组合的方法以解决提高维吾尔文搜索质量的问题.此问题解决,将在大幅度提高维吾尔文搜索的准确性,并针对提高其它突厥语族语言(土耳其语、乌兹别克语、哈萨克语等)的搜索质量、数据挖掘、数据分析、数据安全、自然语言理解等研究领域有一定的参考价值.     

公众参与视角下的央地环境规制博弈分析

本文首先构建环境规制中中央政府和地方政府的两方演化博弈模型,并在此基础上将公众作为第三方参与主体,构建中央政府、地方政府和公众三方演化博弈模型,详细比较两方和三方博弈模型的区别,探究各个主体策略行为的影响因素。研究发现:(1)未有公众参与下,地方政府策略选择主要受地方政府积极执行成本、环境收益、经济损失,消极执行的环境政绩损失,中央政府监管力度、治理补贴和对地方政府的处罚等因素影响;中央政府的监管策略主要受到严格监管的成本以及对地方政府的治理补贴和处罚等因素影响。引入公众参与后,在央地两方博弈的基础上,地方政府环境规制执行策略的影响因素还增加了地方政府被举报后所受到的追加处罚,中央政府监管策略的影响因素还增加了中央政府监管力度、对地方政府的追加处罚以及中央政府的公信力损失。(2)未有公众参与下,中央政府严格监管的概率随地方政府积极执行概率的增大而减小。引入公众参与后,中央政府严格监管率随地方政府积极执行概率的增大而增大。说明在公众参与下,地方政府积极执行环境规制对中央政府严格监管产生的抑制作用转变成了促进作用。(3)地方政府积极执行的概率、中央政府严格监管的概率都随公众举报概率的增大而增大。说明公众参与不仅对地方政府承担环保责任具有促进作用,而且有利于促使中央政府落实环境治理政策。