投影寻踪回归在试验设计分析中的应用研究

本文对三个应用实例进行分析，研究结果表明：ＰＰＲ方法是试验设计回归分析行之有效的方法，它给技术工作者提供了一个处理试验数据的崭新统计方法。ＰＰＲ的应用，将会大幅度降低试验费用，提高试验研究工作效率。     

DEA中交叉效率评价的新思考

介绍了数据包络分析中交叉效率评价的方法，分析了多解情况出现时采用的处理方法，并引入了奇异指数。将社会评价活动中的自评价与他评价思想与交叉效率评价进行了融合，提出了用欧式空间距离来处理多解问题，并对最终评价值的计算方法进行了分析，提出利用熵权确定决策单元的影响因子，再计算最终评价值。通过算例说明了方法的有效性。     

投影寻踪方法与高光谱遥感图像数据特征提取的研究

高光谱技术的发展与应用对高维的高光谱遥感数据的处理方法提出了更高的要求，投影寻踪方法是一种处理高维数据的十分有效的降维方法。高光谱图像分析对投影寻踪方法仍是一个全新的领域。本文介绍了投影寻踪的一般概念。分析了基于信息散度指标投影的寻踪方法在高光谱图像处理中的应用，给出了它与主成份分析处理结果的对比。并提出PP与高光谱研究将来的发展方向。     

基于信息熵和回归分析的信用风险评估研究

信用风险管理一直是银行和其他金融机构最关心的问题之一。本利用信息熵与传统的统计回归对比分析的方法，对信用信息数据库中的逻辑变量进行了数值化处理，在完成属性筛选的基础上，建立多元回归模型来实现对客户特征的评估。实证研究表明，这种数值化的处理方法是可行的，利用该方法评估和预测可能发生的信用风险是有实用价值的。     

一种可用于生产效率评价的灰靶评估算法

本文在分析和比较了DEA和灰靶评估两种方法之后，给出一种可用于生产效率评价的灰靶评估算法。该算法由于运用了DEA方法中的“生产效率”概念，弥补了灰靶评估算法不能对不同的被评价单元进行效率评价的不足，从而拓宽了灰靶评估算法的应用背景。文章最后给出实例分析。     

带边界层的线性两点边值问题的打靶——小波配点法

本文将打靶法和小波配点法相结合，提出了打靶－小波配点数值算法，用于求解带边界层的常微分方程边值问题。文中给出了数值算例，并进行了分析，验证了这种方法对处理边界层问题的有效性。     

基于集对层次理论的深基坑支护方案综合优选

集对分析是处理不确定性问题的系统理论的新方法,应用集对分析原理、层次分析和集值统计方法,建立了考虑影响因素权重的评价模型,探讨深基坑支护方案评价与优选实用方法.用实例给予了验证.     

安徽省农民收入的灰关联动态分析

文章运用灰关联分析方法，对安徽省农民收入与投入因子的关联以及农民收入与农村社会成果的关联进行了实证分析。得出如下结论：不同时段，各投入因子对农民收入的影响不同；农民收入与农业发展基本同步；农村非农产业的发展对农民收入贡献率降低；价格政策对农民收入影响很大。文章的最后是作者的几点思考。     

用多复变量应力函数计算任意多连通弹性平面问题

本文应用弹性力学的复变函数理论，用多保角变换的方法，导出了任意多连通无限大弹性板的多复变量应力函数表达式。在边界上进行复Ｆｏｕｒｉｅｒ级数展开，用待定系数法确定应力函数的未知系数，从而计算弹性板的应力场，以含有任意多个任意位置椭圆孔的无限板为例，编制了相应的多工况运行的ＦＯＲＴＲＡＮ７７标准化程序，进行了考题和算例分析，给出了级数的收敛状况和孔边周向应力的分布图，结果表明本方法对处理多连通无限大弹性平面问题行之有效。     

也谈“试卷质量分析”

也谈“试卷质量分析”陈雪娟上海第二医科大学试题质量分析是教育统计中的一个重要组成部分，近年来曾陆续刊登了这方面的文章［１］，［２］，分别对试题作了“难度、覆盖度、区分度、信度、效度”等分析，读后很受启发，但也有疑问，用文献（１）的数据重新作了计算，并...     

绿色产品定价与市场入侵研究:基于市场权力结构的视角

为研究绿色产品定价与市场入侵问题,针对由两个制造商和一个零售商组成的系统,构建了制造商主导、零售商主导以及供需双方均势等三种权力结构模型,分析了权力结构、消费者绿色偏好等因素对绿色产品定价和市场入侵的影响。研究发现:绿色产品入侵市场存在可行条件,并且绿色产品市场入侵会导致普通产品制造商的利润损失;市场入侵对零售商有利,说明零售商会有动机引入绿色产品;绿色产品入侵市场和市场权力结构均会影响各个企业最优定价策略,其中拥有主导权的企业会选择高价策略;权力结构会影响供需双方的利润分配,以及导致系统利润的损失。     

基于时间敏感需求及随机完工期的承诺交货期决策

在新的经济形势和高新技术指引下,产品更新换代的速度加快,基于时间的竞争成为供应链竞争的焦点.在制造商为核心的供应链中,产品需求除了与价格有关外,与承诺交货期也有一定关联,且部分客户愿意为快速交货而支付更高价格.当需求与时间及价格具有敏感性且实际完工期服从一定的随机分布时,建立利润最大化及服务水平约束的承诺交货期决策模型,并对模型进行讨论及优化分析.通过算例验证了模型的有效性,通过参数敏感性分析得出的结论是:当客户服务水平达到一定阈值时,最优承诺交货期将发生改变;价格及交货期敏感系数不影响承诺交货期,但影响产品需求及最终利润;最优承诺交货期与单位提早完工成本是反向变动的关系而与单位延迟完工成本是正向变动的关系;随着完工期均值及标准差的不断增大,最优承诺交货期呈上升趋势,利润、市场需求及价格不断下降.     

Supply chain optimization of petroleum organization under uncertainty in market demands and prices

A multi-period stochastic planning model has been developed and implemented for a supply chain network of a petroleum organization operating in an oil producing country under uncertain market conditions. The proposed supply chain network consists of all activities related to crude oil production, processing and distribution. Uncertainties were introduced in market demands and prices. A deterministic optimization model was first developed and tested. The impact of uncertainty on the supply chain was studied by performing a sensitivity analysis in which ±20% deviations were introduced in market demands and prices of different commodities. A stochastic formulation was then proposed, which is based on the two-stage problem with finite number of realizations. The proposed stochastic programming approach proved to be quite effective in developing resilient production plans in light of high degree of uncertainty in market conditions. The anticipated production plans have a considerably lower expected value of perfect information (EVPI). The main conclusion of this study is that for an oil producing country with oil processing capabilities, the impact of economic uncertainties may be tolerated by an appropriate balance between crude exports and processing capacities.     

Queueing analysis on a single-station make-to-stock/make-to-order inventory-production system

We consider a one-station production system that produces standard products for ordinary demands and custom products for specific demands. In this system, the workstation has two manufacturing modes. In mode 1, it produces standard products and, in mode 2, it produces custom products by performing the additional alternating works on one existing finished standard product. Base-stock control policy is applied to control the production of standard products. The fill rate of the ordinary demand and the on-time-delivery-rate of the specific demand are considered as the measures of the qualities of service. By assuming an Markovian system, qualities of service under base-stock policy are obtained; furthermore, the optimal base-stock level can be obtained numerically under the requirements on the qualities of services.     

考虑维修时间的总质保需求预测模型

激烈的市场竞争迫使制造商们逐渐向以顾客需求为中心的公司转变。在近 20 年内,作为影响顾客满意度的主要因素,产品的质保服务管理的相关研究开始成为学术界的焦点。良好的质保服务会给企业节省较多的运营成本,故对于刚投入市场的新产品而言,准确地预测质保需求对制造商合理分配资金等具有重要意义。以往对质保需求的预测模型都局限于分析长期意义上一个产品的总质保成本,忽略了产品的维修时间和动态销售过程对准确预测产品的总质保需求及成本的影响。为此,以销售期内的产品所产生的维修需求为主要的研究对象,深入探讨维修时间对预测质保需求的影响。模型中,利用非齐次泊松过程模拟产品的动态销售过程,并利用复合随机过程中的交错更新理论来刻画维修时间对总质保需求的影响。最后的参数分析,为企业更好地管理质保服务提供了重要的现实依据。     

货市与股市波动的超前滞后关系 ——基于复主成分分析法

在传统主成分分析的基础上,复数希尔伯特主成分分析通过将希尔伯特变换与随机矩阵理论相结合获取滤噪经济数据的频域信息,为揭示股票市场与货币市场波动的超前滞后关系提供了途径.实证研究结果显示,在样本区间内,中国股票市场指标相对于货币市场指标来说大部分呈现出超前的变化,而在货币市场中,数量型指标波动较为靠前,价格型指标的反应则较为滞后.此外,股票价格与货币供应量的波动之间存在反馈效应.探索两市场间这样一种动态关系能为政府对金融市场的监管工作提供相应的政策建议.     

再论中国股票市场的弱有效性

本文利用检验鞅差序列的非参数统计量来检验中国股票市场的弱有效性问题,本文给出的方法不同于文献中已有的方法,实证分析表明本文使用的检验股票市场弱有效的方法比文献中的大多数方法更有效。实证结果显示,中国的股市在发展过程中,表现山渐进有效的态势;中国A股市场比B股市场更有效率:沪市比深市更趋于有效。文中的有些结论是以前的实证研究所没有的。另外,本文比较了中国股市和境外成熟股市之间有效性程度的差异,并得出香港市场对深市影响显著的结论。     

异质预期下双寡头企业碳减排决策的复杂性分析

针对碳减排环境下的政府碳配额分配和企业产量与减排研发决策问题,基于古诺双寡头垄断模型,建立了考虑有限理性和异质性预期的碳排放依赖型企业碳减排决策模型,从市场复杂性演化的内部视角出发,分析市场竞争波动的内在机制;并通过非线性动力学理论探讨企业不同的响应速度对于市场稳定性的影响。结果表明,技术减排成本系数、碳交易价格对低碳产品的偏好系数是影响两企业竞争策略的关键因素,两个因素的取值不同甚至会彻底改变均衡状态下两企业相对的减排投资力度和相对的盈利能力及市场的稳定性。针对市场竞争出现的波动现象,通过时滞反馈控制方法高效、快速的控制动力系统的不稳定行为,使得市场迅速恢复稳定、有序的状态,为决策者有效解决市场不稳定现象提供了科学依据。     

Fast, Efficient Equipment Placement Heuristics for Broadband Switched or Internet Router Networks

Planning and designing the next generation of IP router or switched broadband networks seems a daunting challenge considering the many complex, interacting factors affecting the performance and cost of such networks. Generally, this complexity implies that it may not even be clear what constitutes a “good” network design for a particular specification. Different network owners or operators may view the same solution differently, depending on their unique needs and perspectives. Nevertheless, we have observed a core common issue arising in the early stages of network design efforts involving leading-edge broadband switched technologies such as ATM, Frame Relay, and SMDS; or even Internet IP router networks. This core issue can be stated as follows: Given a set of service demands for the various network nodes, where should switching or routing equipment be placed to minimize the Installed First Cost of the network? Note that the specified service demands are usually projections for a future scenario and generally entail significant uncertainty. Despite this uncertainty, we have found that network owners and operators generally feel it is worthwhile to obtain high-level advice on equipment placement with a goal of minimizing Installed First Cost. This paper reports on a heuristic approach we have implemented for this problem that has evolved out of real network design projects. A tool with both a Solution Engine and an intuitive Graphical User Interface has been developed. The approach is highly efficient; for example, the tool can often handle LATA-sized networks in seconds or less on a workstation processor. By using only nodal demands rather than the more complex point-to-point demands usually required in tools of this sort, we have created an approach that is not only highly efficient, but is also a better match to real design projects in which demand data is generally scant and highly uncertain.     

Production planning and warehouse management in supply networks with inter-facility mold transfers

This paper, considers with the problem of production capacity and warehouse management in a supply network in which inter-plant mold transfers are enabled. The supply network has a limited number of very expensive molds which can be transferred from a plant to another making it possible for each plant to produce the entire product gamut. It is assumed that warehouses in this supply network can be activated and deactivated as required, and that material transfers from a warehouse to another are also possible. The objective is to develop a capacity and warehouse management plan that satisfies the expected market demands with the lowest possible cost. A mixed integer programming model for the problem is suggested and its properties are discussed. A linear programming-based heuristic that combines Lagrangian relaxation and linear programming duality to generate lower and upper bounds for the problem is proposed. Finally, based on a designed experiment the performance of the heuristic on a set of generated test problems is reported and discussed.