Dissonance Minimization as a Microfoundation of Social Influence in Models of Opinion Formation

Models of opinion formation are used to investigate many collective phenomena. While social influence often constitutes a basic mechanism, its implementation differs between the models. In this article, we provide a general framework of social influence based on dissonance minimization. We only premise that individuals strive to minimize dissonance resulting from different opinions compared to individuals in a given social network. Within a game theoretic context, we show that our concept of dissonance minimization resembles a coordination process when interactions are homogeneous. We further show that different models of opinion formation can be represented as best response dynamics within our framework. Thus, we offer a unifying perspective on these heterogeneous models and link them to rational choice theory.     

Scale-Free Interpersonal Influences on Opinions in Complex Systems

An important side effect of the evolution of the human brain is an increased capacity to form opinions in a very large domain of issues, which become points of aggressive interpersonal disputes. Remarkably, such disputes are often no less vigorous on small differences of opinion than large differences. Opinion differences that may be measured on the real number line may not directly correspond to the subjective importance of an issue and extent of resistance to opinion change. This is a hard problem for the field of opinion dynamics, a field that has become increasingly prominent as it has attracted more contributions to it from investigators in the natural and engineering sciences. The paper contributes a scale-free approach to assessing the extents to which individuals, with unknown heterogeneous resistances to influence, have been influenced by the opinions of others.     

Mining performance data through nonlinear PCA with optimal scaling

Performance data are usually collected in order to build well‐defined performance indicators. Since such data may conceal additional information, which can be revealed by secondary analysis, we believe that mining of performance data may be fruitful. We also note that performance databases usually contain both qualitative and quantitative variables for which it may be inappropriate to assume some specific (multivariate) underlying distribution. Thus, a suitable technique to deal with these issues should be adopted. In this work, we consider nonlinear principal component analysis (PCA) with optimal scaling, a method developed to incorporate all types of variables, and to discover and handle nonlinear relationships. The reader is offered a case study in which a student opinion database is mined. Though generally gathered to provide evidence of teaching ability, they are exploited here to provide a more general performance evaluation tool for those in charge of managing universities. We show how nonlinear PCA with optimal scaling applied to student opinion data enables users to point out some strengths and weaknesses of educational programs and services within a university. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model of influence based on aggregation functions

The paper concerns a dynamic model of influence in which agents make a yes–no decision. Each agent has an initial opinion which he may change during different phases of interaction, due to mutual influence among agents. We investigate a model of influence based on aggregation functions. Each agent modifies his opinion independently of the others, by aggregating the current opinion of all agents. Our framework covers numerous existing models of opinion formation, since we allow for arbitrary aggregation functions. We provide a general analysis of convergence in the aggregation model and find all terminal classes and states. We show that possible terminal classes to which the process of influence may converge are terminal states (the consensus states and nontrivial states), cyclic terminal classes, and unions of Boolean lattices (called regular terminal classes). An agent is influential for another agent if the opinion of the first one matters for the latter. A generalization of influential agent to an irreducible coalition whose opinion matters for an agent is called influential coalition. The graph (hypergraph) of influence is a graphical representation of influential agents (coalitions). Based on properties of the hypergraphs of influence we obtain conditions for the existence of the different kinds of terminal classes. An important family of aggregation functions–the family of symmetric decomposable models–is discussed. Finally, based on the results of the paper, we analyze the manager network of Krackhardt.     

投资者看法差异与风险资产定价

股票市场中投资者的看法差异是否影响定价?将投资者之间由于信息不对称引起的看法差异和对称信息下由于信念异质引起的看法差异,纳入统一的一个理性预期模型,推导出基于信息性风险和异质信念下的风险资产定价模型,对几种不同来源性质的看法差异进行剥离并通过对均衡价格的比较静态分析证明了:由信息不对称造成的看法差异与投资者要求的预期收益率正相关,而由信念异质引起的看法差异与预期收益率负相关.这表明:投资者对逆向选择风险要求额外的风险贴水,而相反会忽视赢者诅咒风险,投资者的看法差异越大越会造成股票价格的高估.     

一种研究网络论坛上舆论演化的新方法

在网络论坛上,以某一话题为中心的网络舆论已经成为影响人们生活,甚至政府决策的重要因素.话题的参与者以论坛的方式组合在一起,通过相互之间信息的交互,逻辑上形成动态变化的系统.由于人类本身的适应性(对环境的适应),从而造成该系统的错综复杂,谁都无法把握该系统的发展.为此,引入复杂适应性系统的思想和方法,通过对基于论坛的网络舆论的分析,将影响该类网络舆论形成、发展的几个重要因素进行规则化.以CAS理论来构建基于论坛的网络舆论系统并研究其演化,并利用Swarm平台对该系统进行实现.实验仿真结果表明CAS理论能够有效地研究基于论坛的网络舆论,为进一步研究互联网上的网络舆论提供新的方法.     

Linguistic group decision-making: opinion aggregation and measures of consensus

Group decision-making is a crucial activity, necessary in many aspects of our civilization. In many cases, due to inherent complexity, experts cannot express their opinion or preferences using exact numbers, thus resorting to a qualitative preference such as linguistic labels. Another complicating factor is the fact that very seldom all individuals in a group share the same opinion about the alternatives. This creates the need to aggregate all the differing individual opinions into a group opinion. Moreover, it is desirable to be able to assess the level of agreement among the experts; termed consensus. This paper presents a methodology for aggregating experts’ judgements, presented as linguistic labels, into a group opinion with a measure of the group consensus. The aggregation model allows weighted experts to express a degree of optimism or upward bias in their opinions. Then the paper presents two models of calculating the consensus based on the individual expert opinions and the group aggregated opinion.     

Unanimous opinions in social influence networks

In this paper, I show that persons reach unanimous opinions even when they have different initial opinions and different social influences in social influence networks. Friedkin and Johnsen introduced a model of social influence networks, and identified conditions for initially diverse opinions to converge. However, they did not examine conditions of “unanimous” convergence. Hence, I provide sufficient conditions of such unanimous consensus by focusing on three typical but conflicting social influences: the equal influence, the influence of the lowest opinion, and no influence. I show that unanimous opinions occur even when persons have antagonistic social influences such as the equal influence and the influence of the lowest opinion. I also demonstrate that the most cooperative type is the equal influence, but the most central type is the no influence.     

Selecting non-zero weights to evaluate effectiveness of basketball players with DEA

In this paper, we show how DEA may be used to identify component profiles as well as overall indices of performance in the context of an application to assessments of basketball players. We go beyond the usual uses of DEA to provide only overall indexes of performance. Our focus is, instead, on the multiplier values for the efficiently rated players. For this purpose we use a procedure that we recently developed that guarantees a full profile of non-zero weights, or “multipliers.” We demonstrate how these values can be used to identify relative strengths and weaknesses in individual players. Here we also utilize the flexibility of DEA by introducing bounds on the allowable values to reflect the views of coaches, trainers and other experts on the basketball team for which evaluations are being conducted. Finally we show how these combinations can be extended by taking account of team as well as individual considerations.     

How to draw a clustered tree

The visualization of clustered graphs is a classical algorithmic topic that has several practical applications and is attracting increasing research interest. In this paper we deal with the visualization of clustered trees, a problem that is somehow foundational with respect to the one of visualizing a general clustered graph. We show many, in our opinion, surprising results that put in evidence how drawing clustered trees has many sharp differences with respect to drawing “plain” trees. We study a wide class of drawing standards, giving both negative and positive results. Namely, we show that there are clustered trees that do not have any drawing in certain standards and others that require exponential area. On the contrary, for many drawing conventions there are efficient algorithms that allow to draw clustered trees with polynomial asymptotically-optimal area.     

A framework for managing uncertain inputs: An axiomization of rewarding

The success postulate in belief revision ensures that new evidence (input) is always trusted. However, admitting uncertain input has been questioned by many researchers. Darwiche and Pearl argued that strengths of evidence should be introduced to determine the outcome of belief change, and provided a preliminary definition towards this thought. In this paper, we start with Darwiche and Pearl’s idea aiming to develop a framework that can capture the influence of the strengths of inputs with some rational assumptions. To achieve this, we first define epistemic states to represent beliefs attached with strength, and then present a set of postulates to describe the change process on epistemic states that is determined by the strengths of input and establish representation theorems to characterize these postulates. As a result, we obtain a unique rewarding operator which is proved to be a merging operator that is in line with many other works. We also investigate existing postulates on belief merging and compare them with our postulates. In addition, we show that from an epistemic state, a corresponding ordinal conditional function by Spohn can be derived and the result of combining two epistemic states is thus reduced to the result of combining two corresponding ordinal conditional functions proposed by Laverny and Lang. Furthermore, when reduced to the belief revision situation, we prove that our results induce all the Darwiche and Pearl’s postulates as well as the Recalcitrance postulate and the Independence postulate.     

基于半参数分位数回归的居民个人收入研究

教育、性别、年龄、城乡、地区经济都是影响居民个人收入的重要因素,这些因素影响收入的作用方式是不同的,有的以参数形式存在,有的则是非参数形式存在.同时,这些因素在收入的不同分位点影响收入的程度也是不同的,通过构造半参数分位数回归模型,对影响收入诸因素的作用方式与程度进行了研究.     

不同信任环境下在线知识社区知识系统演化研究

信任作为在线知识社区中的社会影响因素,对社区中的成员进行沟通学习、知识共享有着重要的作用。不同的在线知识社区有着不同的信任环境,而信任环境的不同会影响社区中用户的学习模式和观点传播。基于此,本文提出了基于信任与Deffaunt的组合观点影响模型。信任模型主要将社区中的信任分为认知信任和情感信任,通过调节参数结构,对应不同信任环境中信任的动态演化过程。Deffaunt模型作为基本观点影响模型,模拟了不同信任环境下的在线知识社区的知识观点的演化过程。实验结果发现,信任环境的高低决定了社区中的观点是否收敛,并且社区中的群体理性人占比和信任程度都能影响观点的收敛速度。     

Innovation governs everything eventually: Extensions of the DeGroot model

We study the DeGroot model for continuous opinion dynamics under the influence of innovations. In the original model, individuals’ opinions, after given their initial values, evolve merely according to the given learning topology. The main contribution of this paper is that external innovation effects are introduced: each individual is given the opportunity to change her opinion to a randomly selected opinion according to a given distribution on the opinion space and then the external opinion is either adapted by the individual, or combined into her learning process. It turns out that all the classical results of the DeGroot model are violated in this new model. We prove that convergence can still be guaranteed in the expectation sense, regardless of the learning topology. We also study the steady distributions of opinions among the society and the time spent to reach a steady state by means of Monte-Carlo simulations.     

一种用于评价集体成绩的序列加权均值

本文对评价中通常惯用的平均化方法进行了反思,并结合现实问题,提出了一种利用混合排序进行赋权的序列加权均值评价法。这种方法的基础来自于算术平均与加权平均的思想,其观念是鼓励先进,对优秀个体所做贡献的价值进行适当的提升。本文还通过一个简单算例,与传统方法进行了对比分析,结论是可信的。     

基于企业网络舆情的客户满意度分析及管理方法

社交网络平台的迅速发展,促使网络舆情成为企业获取商业情报、扩大竞争优势的重要信息来源。本文针对网络舆情环境下的企业客户关系管理问题展开研究。通过构建企业客户推动式信息反馈模型,描述了企业客户、网络用户与企业网络舆情间的联系,并依据信息反馈模型,提出变尺度聚类算法。该算法将传统聚类方法的求解过程由单一尺度分析扩展到多尺度分析,克服了实际数据聚类应用过程中的聚类结果特征不显著问题。本文选取新浪微博作为数据源,利用企业网络舆情数据集和企业客户数据集进行数据分析实验。实验结果表明,企业可以通过获取与其主营业务相关的网络舆情信息,实现客户满意度预测;同时,变尺度聚类算法结果能够为企业进一步制定销售战略和销售战术提供决策支持。     

Asymptotic behavior of spectral gaps in a regularly perturbed periodic waveguide

Since the spectrum of a periodic waveguide is the union of a countable family of closed bounded segments (spectral bands), it can contain opened spectral gaps, i.e., intervals in the real positive semi-axis that are free of the spectrum but have both endpoints in it. A cylindrical waveguide has an intact spectrum that is a closed ray. We consider a small periodic perturbation of the waveguide wall, and, by means of an asymptotic analysis of the eigenvalues in the model problem on the periodicity cell, we show how a spectral gap opens when the cylindrical waveguide converts into a periodic one. Indeed, a cylindrical waveguide can be interpreted as a periodic one with an arbitrary period, but all its spectral bands touch each other. A periodic perturbation of the waveguide wall provides the splitting of the band edges. This effect is known in the physical literature for waveguides of different shapes, and, in this paper, we provide a rigorous mathematical proof of the effect. Several variants of the edge splitting (alone and coupled, simple and multiple knots) are examined. Explicit formulas are obtained for a plane waveguide.     

Minorities in a model for opinion formation

We study a model for social influence in which the agents' opinion is a continuous variable [G. Weisbuch et al., Complexity 2002, 7(2), 55]. The convergent opinion adjustment process takes place as a result of random binary encounters whenever the difference between agents' opinions is below a given threshold. The inhomogeneity in the dynamics gives rise to a complex steady state structure, which is also highly dependent on the threshold and on the convergence parameter of the model. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 9: 24–30, 2004     

On the shock wave spectrum for isentropic gas dynamics with capillarity

We consider the stability problem for shock layers in Slemrod's model of an isentropic gas with capillarity. We show that these traveling waves are monotone in the weak capillarity case, and become highly oscillatory as the capillarity strength increases. Using a spectral energy estimate we prove that small-amplitude monotone shocks are spectrally stable. We also show that monotone shocks have no unstable real spectrum regardless of amplitude; this implies that any instabilities of these monotone traveling waves, if they exist, must occur through a Hopf-like bifurcation, where one or more conjugate pairs of eigenvalues cross the imaginary axis. We then conduct a systematic numerical Evans function study, which shows that monotone and mildly oscillatory profiles in an adiabatic gas are spectrally stable for moderate values of shock and capillarity strengths. In particular, we show that the transition from monotone to nonmonotone profiles does not appear to trigger any instabilities.     

Coalition formation in the presence of continuing conflict

This paper studies endogenous coalition formation in a rivalry environment where continuing conflict exists. A group of heterogeneous players compete for a prize with the probability of winning for a player depending on his strength as well as the distribution of strengths among his rivals. Players can pool their strengths together to increase their probabilities of winning as a group through coalition formation. The players in the winning coalition will compete further until one individual winner is left. We show that in any equilibrium there are only two coalitions in the initial stage of the contest. In the case of three players, the equilibrium often has a coalition of the two weaker players against the strongest. The equilibrium coalition structure with four players mainly takes one of the two forms: a coalition of the three weaker players against the strongest or a coalition of the weakest and strongest players against a coalition of the remaining two. Our findings imply that the rivalry with the possibility of coalition formation in our model exhibits a pattern of two-sidedness and a balance of power. We further study the impact of binding agreements by coalition members on equilibrium coalition structures. Our analysis sheds some light on problems of temporary cooperation among individuals who are rivals by nature.