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1.
运用时间序列分析的预测方法,对四大银行的股票日对数收益率序列进行拟合与预测分析,分别构建ARMA模型、GARCH模型以及ARMA-GARCH组合模型,通过模型比较,实证分析表明:在拟合效果上,ARMA-GARCH模型的拟合优度优于ARMA模型和GARCH模型;在预测效果上,ARMA模型的预测效果最优,ARMA-GARCH模型次之.  相似文献   

2.
GARCH模型对上海股市的一个实证研究   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
章超  程希骏  王敏 《运筹与管理》2005,14(4):144-146
GARCH模型是近20年发展起来的时间序列模型,它反映了经济变量之间特殊的不确定形式:方差随时间变化而变化,所以其在金融市场的预测与决策方面有着重要的作用。本文详细介绍了GARCH模型以及其主要变形,并建立了基于t分布和正态分布假设的GARCH(1,1)模型对股票市场进行了风险分析。结果表明,基于t分布的假设能更准确地拟和GARCH(1,1)模型。  相似文献   

3.
GAS模型是一种基于观测的动态模型,理论简单且应用灵活,可以直接估计VaR.将GAS模型和GARCH类模型应用于不同条件下生成的模拟数据和三个时间段的沪深300指数的日对数收益率数据,并比较模型关于VaR的预测效果。结果表明:在对称的条件分布下,GAS模型容易高估风险且不稳健,其表现不如GARCH类模型;但在条件分布为有偏的时,GAS模型与GARCH类模型的表现相当,部分情况下会优于GARCH类模型,尤其在实证分析中关于序列2和序列3的VaR的估计,GAS模型的预测效果较好。因此,实际应用中,对于具有较明显偏态分布或尖峰分布的数据可以考虑使用GAS模型预测动态VaR.  相似文献   

4.
ARCH类模型研究及其在沪市A股中的应用   总被引:15,自引:2,他引:13  
陈健 《数理统计与管理》2003,22(3):10-13,26
本文主要介绍ARCH(AutoregressiveConditionalHeteroskedasticity)模型、GARCH模型和E GARCH模型 ,分析这些模型的特点和适用范围 ,并在模型中引入t分布取代正态分布假设 ,最后利用这些模型对上证指数进行了实证分析。  相似文献   

5.
Realized GARCH模型是预测波动率的经典模型之一,最小化非对称二次损失函数的Expectile对收益率尾部分布更加敏感,我们在Realized GARCH模型的基础上引入Expectile提出Expectile-Realized GARCH模型。以沪深300指数的高频收益率为例建模分析,对比不同模型下的波动率预测效果,发现Expectile-Realized GARCH模型较Realized GARCH模型对波动率预测能力更好。其中,当风险水平为95%时,对应的Expectile-Realized GARCH波动率预测能力最好。  相似文献   

6.
《数理统计与管理》2014,(3):559-570
基于模糊数学和模糊时间序列分析理论,在模糊GARCH与GJR-GARCH模型的基础上建立模糊GJR-GARCH模型,并用遗传算法估计了该模型的参数。实证发现沪深两市的收益波动率具有明显的非对称性,相对于普通的GARCH、GJR-GARCH和模糊GARCH模型,模糊GJR-GARCH模型能更好的处理收益率的波动群聚性、时变性和非对称性,具有更好的估计精度。  相似文献   

7.
应用NGARCH模型在三种分布假设下对上证综合指数进行了V aR风险值估计,并且与GARCH模型和APARCH模型估计结果作比较,通过返回检验,发现NGARCH模型应用于V aR估计是统计有效的,且优于GARCH和APARCH模型.  相似文献   

8.
沪市股票价格指数的GARCH模型   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
首先用OLS法对沪市股票价格指数建模,对统计量进行分析发现该模型的误差项具有条件异方差性,因此采用GARCH方法拟合并检验,结果表明GARCH(1,1)拟合的很好。  相似文献   

9.
GARCH模型是研究金融资产收益的重要模型,然而现有参数GARCH模型依然不能有效刻画金融资产收益偏态厚尾特性且存在模型设定风险。本文在非参数分布和GARCH模型基础上,建立半参数GARCH模型以提高模型的有效性;同时在贝叶斯框架内发展有效MCMC抽样解决模型的参数估计难问题,并利用DIC4研究模型比较问题;最后通过模拟研究和实证研究考察MCMC抽样的有效性,检验半参数GARCH模型在刻画金融资产收益特性和风险价值预测方面的实际效果。  相似文献   

10.
基于GARCH模型的人民币汇率波动规律研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
自人民币汇率体制改革以来,汇率波动日趋复杂.鉴于GARCH模型能够较好地拟合汇率时间序列的尖峰厚尾特征,本文采集了2003~2007年之间的1069个美元兑人民币汇率日值,应用GARCH模型进行分析,证实了我国外汇市场确实存在ARCH效应,且GARCH模型能够较好地拟合汇改后的人民币汇率数据.  相似文献   

11.
Takagi—Sugeno模糊模型广泛应用于对复杂系统的辨识,但可辨识性问题很少涉及。本文给出在规则数和规则前件确定的情况下,Takagi—Sugeno模糊模型的可辨识性条件。  相似文献   

12.
We present a class of multi-factor stochastic models for energy futures prices, similar to the interest rate futures models recently formulated by Heath. We do not postulate directly the risk-neutral processes followed by futures prices, but define energy futures prices in terms of a spot price, not directly observable, driven by several stochastic factors. Our formulation leads to an expression for futures prices which is well suited to the application of Kalman filtering techniques together with maximum likelihood estimation methods. Based on these techniques, we perform an empirical study of a one- and a two-factor model for futures prices for natural gas.  相似文献   

13.
In this paper,exponential type regression modeis are considered from geometric point of view.The stochastic expansions relsting to the estimate are derived and are used to study several asymptotic inference problems.The biases and the covariances relating to the estimate may be calculated based on the expansions.The information loss of the estimate and a limit theorem connected with the observed and expected Fisher informations are obtained in terms of the curvatures.  相似文献   

14.
We define a graph structure associated in a natural way to finite fields that nevertheless distinguishes between different models of isomorphic fields. Certain basic notions in finite field theory have interpretations in terms of standard graph properties. We show that the graphs are connected and provide an estimate of their diameter. An accidental graph isomorphism is uncovered and proved. The smallest non-trivial Laplace eigenvalue is given some attention, in particular for a specific family of 8-regular graphs showing that it is not an expander. We introduce a regular covering graph and show that it is connected if and only if the root is primitive.  相似文献   

15.
16.
We present some general results concerning the topological space of cuts of a countable model of arithmetic given by a particular indicator Y. The notion of “indicator” is de.ned in a novel way, without initially specifying what property is indicated and is used to de.ne a topological space of cuts of the model. Various familiar properties of cuts (strength, regularity, saturation, coding properties) are investigated in this sense, and several results are given stating whether or not the set of cuts having the property is comeagre. A new notion of “generic cut” is introduced and investigated and it is shown in the case of countable arithmetically saturated models M ? PA that generic cuts exist, indeed the set of generic cuts is comeagre in the sense of Baire, and furthermore that two generic cuts within the same “small interval” of the model are conjugate by an automorphism of the model.The paper concludes by outlining some applications to constructions of cuts satisfying properties incompatible with genericity, and discussing in model‐theoretic terms those properties for which there is an indicator Y. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

17.
本文提出了变系数广义线性模型中变系数与变离差的局部加权极大似然估计,同时通过数值模拟来说明这种方法的可行性。.  相似文献   

18.
混合效应模型在儿童生长发育研究中的应用   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
本文将混合效应模型应用于儿童生长发育研究 ,实例表明 ,混合效应模型是研究儿童生长发育规律的一种有效、实用的方法  相似文献   

19.
An arbitrage-free two-factor model is presented, which is driven by the short rate and the consol yield, and which ensures log-normal short rate and positive rates. The market price of an arbitrary (discrete) set of discount bonds is recovered by construction, and an arbitrary degree of correlation can be accommodated between the long yield and the spread. By virtue of its Markovian nature, the model can be mapped onto a recombining tree, and therefore readily lends itself to the evaluation of American and compound options, which are difficult to evaluate with non-Markovian log-normal forward-rate models such as HJM. Comparison with such a two-factor HJM model has given good agreement in so far as the pricing of one-look triggers is concerned. The calibration to caplets and European swaptions is discussed in detail.  相似文献   

20.
软件可靠性模型的补偿算法   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
世界上已发表了四十多个软件可靠性模型,但使用情况不尽如人意.提出了模型的补偿算法,实验研究结果表明,该算法能有效地改善模型的精度及适应性.  相似文献   

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