Preservation of Stochastic Orders under the Formation of Generalized Distorted Distributions. Applications to Coherent Systems

The preservation of stochastic orders under the formation of coherent systems is a relevant topic in the reliability theory. Several properties have been obtained under the assumption of identically distributed components. In this paper we obtain ordering preservation results for generalized distorted distributions (GDD) which, in particular, can be used to obtain preservation results for coherent systems with non-identically distributed components. We consider both the cases of independent and dependent components. The preservation results obtained here for GDD can also be applied to other statistical concepts.     

Relationships between pure tail orderings of lifetime distributions and some concepts of residual life

The concepts of pure-tail orderings as defined by sq- and D-orderings are shown to order the family of reliability life distributions which age smoothly in a natural way. This ordering extends to comparisons regarding the limiting behavior of the residual life, mean residual life, sojourn time between perfect repairs in repairable systems, failure rate and, through the preservation of sq- and D-orderings by various reliability operations, to certain coherent systems of components that age smoothly. Possible applications of the results to the industrial practice of cannibalization are also noted.     

Preservation of reliability classes under the formation of coherent systems

The preservation of reliability aging classes under the formation of coherent systems is a relevant topic in reliability theory. Thus, it is well known that the new better than used class is preserved under the formation of coherent systems with independent components. However, surprisingly, the increasing failure rate class is not preserved in the independent and identically distributed case, that is, the components may have the (negative) aging increasing failure rate property, but the system does not have this property. In this paper, we study conditions for the preservation of the main reliability classes under the formation of general coherent systems. These results can be applied both for systems with independent or dependent components. We consider both the case of systems with identically distributed components and the case of systems with components having different distributions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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A Bayesian semiparametric procedure for confirmatory factor analysis model is proposed to address the heterogeneity of the multivariate responses. The approach relies on the use of a prior over the space of mixing distributions with finite components. Blocked Gibbs sampler is implemented to cope with the posterior analysis. For model comparison, themeasure and Bayes factor are developed. A generalized weighted Chinese restaurant algorithm is suggested to compute the likelihood of data. Empirical results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the methodologies.     

Bayesian Semiparametric Density Estimation and Model Verification Using a Logistic–Gaussian Process

This article proposes a semiparametric model, which consists of parametric and nonparametric components, for density estimation. The parametric component represents the researcher's a priori beliefs about a likely family of density functions. The nonparametric component, which is modeled by a logistic–Gaussian process, allows the predictive distribution to deviate from the parametric family if it is inadequate. Bayesian hypothesis testing is used to examine the adequacy of the parametric model relative to the flexible alternative provided by the semiparametric model. The article presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that efficiently handles the large number of parameters.     

Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients.     

STRUCTURES OF SYSTEMS WITH EXPONENTIAL LIFE DISTRIBUTIONS

Abstract. Structures of monotone systems and cold standby systems with     

Relative ageing for two parallel systems and related problems

Kalashnikov and Rachev [1] have proposed a partial ordering of two life distributions which is equivalent to an increasing hazard (failure rate) ratio, when the ratio exists. The phenomenon of crossing hazards has received considerable attention in recent years. Recently, Sengupta and Deshpande [2) have studied this and two other models of relative ageing. In this paper, we consider the relative ageing properties of two parallel systems with identical but different number of components. We also compare the variances of the two life distributions having the same mean but with increasing hazard ratio. Several examples are given to illustrate the results.     

Semiparametric mixtures of regressions with single-index for model based clustering

In this article, we propose two classes of semiparametric mixture regression models with single-index for model based clustering. Unlike many semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models that can only be applied to low dimensional predictors, the new semiparametric models can easily incorporate high dimensional predictors into the nonparametric components. The proposed models are very general, and many of the recently proposed semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models are indeed special cases of the new models. Backfitting estimates and the corresponding modified EM algorithms are proposed to achieve optimal convergence rates for both parametric and nonparametric parts. We establish the identifiability results of the proposed two models and investigate the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimation procedures. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the finite sample performance of the proposed models. Two real data applications using the new models reveal some interesting findings.

     

半参数变系数部分线性模型的统计推断

本文在多种复杂数据下, 研究一类半参数变系数部分线性模型的统计推断理论和方法. 首先在纵向数据和测量误差数据等复杂数据下, 研究半参数变系数部分线性模型的经验似然推断问题, 分别提出分组的和纠偏的经验似然方法. 该方法可以有效地处理纵向数据的组内相关性给构造经验似然比函数所带来的困难. 其次在测量误差数据和缺失数据等复杂数据下, 研究模型的变量选择问题, 分别提出一个“纠偏” 的和基于借补值的变量选择方法. 该变量选择方法可以同时选择参数分量及非参数分量中的重要变量, 并且变量选择与回归系数的估计同时进行. 通过选择适当的惩罚参数, 证明该变量选择方法可以相合地识别出真实模型, 并且所得的正则估计具有oracle 性质.     

Identifying Mixtures of Mixtures Using Bayesian Estimation

The use of a finite mixture of normal distributions in model-based clustering allows us to capture non-Gaussian data clusters. However, identifying the clusters from the normal components is challenging and in general either achieved by imposing constraints on the model or by using post-processing procedures. Within the Bayesian framework, we propose a different approach based on sparse finite mixtures to achieve identifiability. We specify a hierarchical prior, where the hyperparameters are carefully selected such that they are reflective of the cluster structure aimed at. In addition, this prior allows us to estimate the model using standard MCMC sampling methods. In combination with a post-processing approach which resolves the label switching issue and results in an identified model, our approach allows us to simultaneously (1) determine the number of clusters, (2) flexibly approximate the cluster distributions in a semiparametric way using finite mixtures of normals and (3) identify cluster-specific parameters and classify observations. The proposed approach is illustrated in two simulation studies and on benchmark datasets. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Bayesian accelerated life testing under competing log-location-scale family of causes of failure

This article provides Bayesian analyses of data arising from multi-stress accelerated life testing of series systems. The component log-lifetimes are assumed to independently belong to some log-concave location-scale family of distributions. The location parameters are assumed to depend on the stress variables through a linear stress translation function. Bayesian analyses and associated predictive inference of reliability characteristics at usage stresses are performed using Gibbs sampling from the joint posterior. The developed methodology is numerically illustrated by analyzing a real data set through Bayesian model averaging of the two popular cases of Weibull and log-normal, with the later getting a special focus in this article as a slightly easier example of the log-location-scale family. A detailed simulation study is also carried out to compare the performance of various Bayesian point estimators for the log-normal case.     

Loss Estimation for Spherically Symmetrical Distributions

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the quadratic loss of point estimators of a location parameter for a family of spherically symmetric distributions. We compare the unbiased loss estimator of the minimax estimator with a new shrinkage type loss estimator. Conditions on the distributions for the domination of competing estimators are given. It is shown that, in addition to the class of scale mixtures of normal distributions, there exists a more general family for which the domination results hold.     

Bayesian estimation of bandwidth in semiparametric kernel estimation of unknown probability mass and regression functions of count data

This work takes advantage of semiparametric modelling which improves significantly in many situations the estimation accuracy of the purely nonparametric approach. Herein for semiparametric estimations of probability mass function (pmf) of count data, and an unknown count regression function (crf), the kernel used is a binomial one and the bandiwdth selection is investigated by developing Bayesian approaches. About the latter, Bayes local and global bandwidth approaches are used to establish data-driven selection procedures in semiparametric framework. From conjugate beta prior distributions of the smoothing parameter and under the squared errors loss function, Bayes estimate for pmf is obtained in closed form. This is not available for the crf which is computed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Simulation studies demonstrate that both proposed methods perform better than the classical cross-validation procedures, in particular the smoothing quality and execution times are optimized. All applications are made on real data sets.     

A semiparametric Bayesian approach to the analysis of financial time series with applications to value at risk estimation

GARCH models are commonly used for describing, estimating and predicting the dynamics of financial returns. Here, we relax the usual parametric distributional assumptions of GARCH models and develop a Bayesian semiparametric approach based on modeling the innovations using the class of scale mixtures of Gaussian distributions with a Dirichlet process prior on the mixing distribution. The proposed specification allows for greater flexibility in capturing the usual patterns observed in financial returns. It is also shown how to undertake Bayesian prediction of the Value at Risk (VaR). The performance of the proposed semiparametric method is illustrated using simulated and real data from the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Bombay Stock Exchange index (BSE30).     

A Monte Carlo comparison of studentized bootstrap and permutation tests for heteroscedastic two-sample problems

The present Monte Carlo study compares bootstrap and permutation tests for semiparametric heteroscedastic two-sample testing problems of Behrens-Fisher type. The underlying functionals to be tested are (a) the difference of the means and (b) the Wilcoxon functionalP(Y < X) which is invariant under strictly increasing transformations. The consideration leads to semiparametric modifications of Welch type tests for the Behrens-Fisher model and an extended two-sample Wilcoxon test which also works under some null hypothesis with non-exchangeable distributions. The present Monte Carlo study confirms the high quality of studentized permutation tests at finite sample size. They are typically better than tests with asymptotic critical values and for many situations and they are also better than two-sample bootstrap tests when their type I error probabilities are compared.     

On local odds and hazard rate models in survival analysis

The present paper establishes an isometry between tangents and odds (hazard) ratio derivatives for randomly censored survival models. The procedure works for arbitrary distributions with discrete parts. As consequence common survival statistics are obtained via discrete empirical models. The isometry can also be used to specify semiparametric models given by odds (or hazard) derivatives.     

A load share model for non-identical components of a k-out-of-m system

We consider a k-out-of-m load sharing system when the lifetimes of the components are not necessarily identically distributed random variables. For such systems, a model for the load sharing phenomenon through the exponentiated conditional survival functions of ordered failure times is proposed. This model is more general than the load sharing model with identically distributed component lifetimes and leads to a different family of distributions for ordered random variables. A general expression for the reliability of the system is given. The computations of the reliability for a two component parallel load sharing system corresponding to the exponential and Weibull distributions are discussed. For illustrative purpose, we discuss the inference procedures for a two component parallel load sharing system corresponding to the exponential distributions. A simulation study is carried out to assess the proposed estimation and testing procedures. The applicability of the proposed load sharing model is shown through two data sets.     

Bayesian Semiparametric Regression Analysis of Multicategorical Time-Space Data

We present a unified semiparametric Bayesian approach based on Markov random field priors for analyzing the dependence of multicategorical response variables on time, space and further covariates. The general model extends dynamic, or state space, models for categorical time series and longitudinal data by including spatial effects as well as nonlinear effects of metrical covariates in flexible semiparametric form. Trend and seasonal components, different types of covariates and spatial effects are all treated within the same general framework by assigning appropriate priors with different forms and degrees of smoothness. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses MCMC techniques for posterior analysis. The approach in this paper is based on latent semiparametric utility models and is particularly useful for probit models. The methods are illustrated by applications to unemployment data and a forest damage survey.     

半参数回归模型拟极大似然估计的渐近分布

用拟极大似然估计方法研究了误差为AR(1)时间序列的半参数回归模型,得到了参数及非参数的拟极大似然估计量,并研究了它们的渐近分布.