带有误差变量的自回归模型的局部多项式估计

该文主要研究带有误差变量的自回归模型的自回归函数的非参数估计问题,应用卷积核函数,给出了自回归函数的局部多项式估计,考察了局部多项式估计的相合性和渐近正态性,最后作了模拟计算.     

非参数异方差回归模型的局部多项式估计——基于农村居民消费与收入的实证分析

本文主要研究非参数异方差回归模型的局部多项式估计问题.首先利用局部线性逼近的技巧,得到了回归均值函数的局部极大似然估计.然后,考虑到回归方差函数的非负性,利用局部对数多项式拟合,得到了方差函数的局部多项式估计,保证了估计量的非负性,并证明了估计量的渐近性质.最后,通过对农村居民消费与收入的实证研究,说明了非参数异方差回归模型的局部多项式方法比普通最小二乘估计法的拟合效果更好,并且预测的精度更高.     

删失数据下回归函数的加权局部复合分位数 回归估计

在右删失数据下,研究了误差具有异方差结构的非参数回归模型,利用局部多项式方法构造了回归函数的加权局部复合分位数回归估计,并得到了该估计的渐近正态性结果,最后通过模拟,当误差为重尾分布时,该估计比局部多项式估计以及核估计表现得更好.     

左截断数据下非参数回归模型的复合分位数回归估计

利用局部多项式方法研究了误差具有异方差结构的非参数回归模型,在左截断数据下构造了回归函数的复合分位数回归估计,并得到了该估计的渐近正态性结果,最后通过模拟,在服从一些非正态分布的误差下,得到该估计比局部线性估计更有效.     

部分线性回归模型变窗宽一步局部M-估计

讨论了部分线性回归模型的变窗宽一步局部M-估计.用一步局部M-估计给出未知函数的估计,用平均方法给出参数估计.进一步通过两个引理证明一步M-估计的渐近正态性.所提出的方法继承了局部多项式的优点并且克服了最小二乘法缺乏稳健性的缺点.     

删失数据下的变系数回归模型

研究了删失数据下的变系数回归模型．通过数据变换,利用局部多项式方法,给出了系数函数的局部加权最小二乘估计．证明了该估计的渐近偏差和渐近方差,同时获得了该估计的渐近正态性．     

函数系数线性自回归模型的样条估计

基于多项式样条全局光滑方法,建立函数系数线性自回归模型中系数函数的样条估计.在适当条件下,证明了系数函数多项式样条估计的相合性,并给出了它们的收敛速度.模拟例子验证了理论结果的正确性.     

变系数模型变窗宽局部M-估计的相合性

用变窗宽局部M-估计对变系数模型的系数函数进行估计,得到了估计的相合性和渐近正态性.所采用的方法继承了局部多项式回归的优点并且克服了最小二乘方法缺乏稳健性的缺点.变窗宽的使用提高了局部M-估计的可塑性,并使得它们能成功地处理空间非齐性曲线、异方差性及非均匀设计密度.     

删失指标随机缺失下一类非参数函数的加权局部多项式估计及其应用

本文在右删失数据中删失指标部分随机缺失下,构造了一类非参数函数的校准加权局部多项式估计以及插值加权局部多项式估计,并建立了这些估计的渐近正态性;作为该方法的应用,导出了条件分布函数、条件密度函数以及条件分位数的加权局部线性双核估计和插值加权局部线性双核估计,并且得到了这些估计的渐近正态性;最后,在有限样本下对这些估计进行了模拟.     

可加模型的两阶段局部M-估计

研究了可加模型分量回归函数的局部M-估计, 针对分量回归函数及其导数提出了两阶段局部M-估计的方法. 在较广泛的条件下建立了估计量的渐近正态性理论, 估计量具有先知性质(oracle property), 即在估计某一分量回归函数时,其他分量回归函数是否已知不影响估计量的渐近性质. 渐近理论包括了两类常用的估计量,即最小二乘估计和最小一乘估计. 当ψ是连续的且是非线性时,估计量的实施非常耗时,为了减轻计算的负担, 提出了一步局部M-估计量, 并证明了在初始估计量足够好的情形下, 一步局部M-估计量与完全迭代所得到的估计量具有相同的渐近估计效率, 这使得两阶段局部M-估计的方法较为实用. 两阶段局部M-估计量继承了局部多项式估计的优点, 同时克服了其在最小二乘准则下不稳健的缺点. 另外, 还讨论了估计方法实施方面的细节及有关参数的选择方法. 数值模拟结果及实际例子说明了两阶段局部M-估计方法的优点及实用性.     

特征值问题协调/非协调有限元后验误差分析

本文研究对称椭圆特征值问题的有限元后验误差估计,包括协调元和非协调元,具有下列特色:(1)对协调/非协调元建立了有限元特征函数uh的误差与相应的边值问题有限元解的误差在局部能量模意义下的恒等关系式,该边值问题的右端为有限元特征值λh与uh的乘积,有限元解恰好为uh.从而边值问题有限元解在能量模意义下的局部后验误差指示子,包括残差型和重构型后验误差指示子,成为有限元特征函数在能量模意义下的局部后验误差指示子.(2)讨论了协调有限元特征函数的基于插值后处理的梯度重构型后验误差估计,对有限元特征函数的导数得到了最大模意义下的渐近准确局部后验误差指示子.     

Asymptotic Properties of Backfitting Estimators

When additive models with more than two covariates are fitted with the backfitting algorithm proposed by Buja et al. [2], the lack of explicit expressions for the estimators makes study of their theoretical properties cumbersome. Recursion provides a convenient way to extend existing theoretical results for bivariate additive models to models of arbitrary dimension. In the case of local polynomial regression smoothers, recursive asymptotic bias and variance expressions for the backfitting estimators are derived. The estimators are shown to achieve the same rate of convergence as those of univariate local polynomial regression. In the case of independence between the covariates, non-recursive bias and variance expressions, as well as the asymptotically optimal values for the bandwidth parameters, are provided.     

Local Polynomial Regression: Optimal Kernels and Asymptotic Minimax Efficiency

We consider local polynomial fitting for estimating a regression function and its derivatives nonparametrically. This method possesses many nice features, among which automatic adaptation to the boundary and adaptation to various designs. A first contribution of this paper is the derivation of an optimal kernel for local polynomial regression, revealing that there is a universal optimal weighting scheme. Fan (1993, Ann. Statist., 21, 196-216) showed that the univariate local linear regression estimator is the best linear smoother, meaning that it attains the asymptotic linear minimax risk. Moreover, this smoother has high minimax risk. We show that this property also holds for the multivariate local linear regression estimator. In the univariate case we investigate minimax efficiency of local polynomial regression estimators, and find that the asymptotic minimax efficiency for commonly-used orders of fit is 100% among the class of all linear smoothers. Further, we quantify the loss in efficiency when going beyond this class.     

Variable bandwidth and one-step local M-estimator

A robust version of local linear regression smoothers augmented with variable bandwidth is studied. The proposed method inherits the advantages of local polynomial regression and overcomes the shortcoming of lack of robustness of least-squares techniques. The use of variable bandwidth enhances the flexibility of the resulting local M-estimators and makes them possible to cope well with spatially inhomogeneous curves, heteroscedastic errors and nonuniform design densities. Under appropriate regularity conditions, it is shown that the proposed estimators exist and are asymptotically normal. Based on the robust estimation equation, one-step local M-estimators are introduced to reduce computational burden. It is demonstrated that the one-step local M-estimators share the same asymptotic distributions as the fully iterative M-estimators, as long as the initial estimators are good enough. In other words, the one-step local M-estimators reduce significantly the computation cost of the fully iterative M-estimators without deteriorating their performance. This fact is also illustrated via simulations.     

On confidence bands for multivariate nonparametric regression

In a multivariate nonparametric regression problem with fixed, deterministic design asymptotic, uniform confidence bands for the regression function are constructed. The construction of the bands is based on the asymptotic distribution of the maximal deviation between a suitable nonparametric estimator and the true regression function which is derived by multivariate strong approximation methods and a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian field over an increasing system of sets. The results are derived for a general class of estimators which includes local polynomial estimators as a special case. The finite sample properties of the proposed asymptotic bands are investigated by means of a small simulation study.     

Nonparametric variance function estimation with missing data

In this paper, a fixed design regression model where the errors follow a strictly stationary process is considered. In this model the conditional mean function and the conditional variance function are unknown curves. Correlated errors when observations are missing in the response variable are assumed. Four nonparametric estimators of the conditional variance function based on local polynomial fitting are proposed. Expressions of the asymptotic bias and variance of these estimators are obtained. A simulation study illustrates the behavior of the proposed estimators.     

Multivariate Locally Weighted Polynomial Fitting and Partial Derivative Estimation

Nonparametric regression estimator based on locally weighted least squares fitting has been studied by Fan and Ruppert and Wand. The latter paper also studies, in the univariate case, nonparametric derivative estimators given by a locally weighted polynomial fitting. Compared with traditional kernel estimators, these estimators are often of simpler form and possess some better properties. In this paper, we develop current work on locally weighted regression and generalize locally weighted polynomial fitting to the estimation of partial derivatives in a multivariate regression context. Specifically, for both the regression and partial derivative estimators we prove joint asymptotic normality and derive explicit asymptotic expansions for their conditional bias and conditional convariance matrix (given observations of predictor variables) in each of the two important cases of local linear fit and local quadratic fit.     

附加信息下的局部线性估计

在回归模型中，对一类因变量函数的条件期望方程的附加信息，我们提出了基于极大经验似然方法的局部线性点估计，在一定条件下证明了这些估计的相合性和渐近正态性，而且估计的方差小于通常不带附加信息核估计的方差．模拟结果也显示了估计的优良性．     

Minimax pointwise estimation of an anisotropic regression function with unknown density of the design

Our aim in this paper is to estimate with best possible accuracy an unknown multidimensional regression function at a given point where the design density is also unknown. To reach this goal, we will follow the minimax approach: it will be assumed that the regression function belongs to a known anisotropic Hölder space. In contrast to the parameters defining the Hölder space, the density of the observations is assumed to be unknown and will be treated as a nuisance parameter. New minimax rates are exhibited as well as local polynomial estimators which achieve these rates. As these estimators depend on a tuning parameter, the problem of its selection is also discussed.