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1.
耐用消费品拥有量预测的研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
本文在分析耐用消费品拥有量增长特性基础上,提出三种假设模型,并给出三个例子,说明应用这些假设模型对我国主要耐用消费品的拥有量进行预测的方法。  相似文献   

2.
聚类分析在品牌市场定位研究中的应用   总被引:9,自引:1,他引:8  
利用统计技术对顾客感知质量和感知价格进行市场定位可以解决品牌市场定位中存在的一些问题。文章利用系统和迭代聚类分析对中国耐用消费品进行了市场定位实证研究,利用方差分析和交叉列表分析检验聚类的有效性并获得聚类的特性,利用多重对应分析进一步研究类别特征。结果显示,聚类具有有效性,中国耐用消费品品牌定位呈现十字型。最后文章提出一种市场定位研究的组合统计技术。  相似文献   

3.
皮尔曲线模型的推广及其应用   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
在分析皮尔曲线模型增长特性的基础上 ,提出了 1 4种推广模型 ,并依据这些模型建立了几种主要耐用消费品拥有量的预测模型 .预测模型的精度很高  相似文献   

4.
程兰芳 《运筹与管理》2004,13(1):126-129
针对当前居民家庭消费的特点,为了合理地选择耐用消费品的最佳购买时机,本分析耐用品的价格和性能具有实物期权的属性,建立了一个关于“性价比”变量的随机微分方程,并且求出了购买时机临界值的解析公式。最后对日常生活中发生的购买时间现象给予了解释。  相似文献   

5.
本文描述了技术创新扩散过程中的市场酝酿期 ,以 Bass模型为基础的分析结果表明 :市场酝酿期越长 ,新技术的创新系数就越小 ,扩散系数就越大 ,而且到达销售峰期的时间就越长 .本文同时对 2 8种耐用消费品的市场扩散进行了实证分析 ,得出了一些有用的结论  相似文献   

6.
某市电视机的普及率由一九七八年的17.9%,达到一九八一年的66.9%,三年间提高了49%,社会拥有量达到了91.5万台.未来电轻机的需求变化不能不引起我们的注意;做好这方面的预测工作也就更为重要了.本文力图在这方面做些探讨. 一、预测模式的选择 商品需求量从市场的角度来看,是受商品可供量,商品价格、商品质量以及居民的购买能力,消费偏好和需求程度等众多因素共同影响的结果. 不同商品由于各自的特点,受到影响的因素也不尽相同。电视机是耐用消费品,使用时间长,一次投资大。是以居民户为单位或社会团体的集团用消费品。所以,影响电视机需求的…  相似文献   

7.
关于渐开线的功用,高中平面解析几何课本中有这样一段话:“用渐开线齿形的齿轮磨损少,传动平稳,具有省力、耐用和噪音小的特点.”为什么?作为高中的数学任课老师应该了解这一点.首先介绍渐开线的两个性质:(1)渐开线的法线是基圆的切线.渐开线C的方程x=r(...  相似文献   

8.
在分析消费品伤害事件的不确定性因素基础上,研究消费品导致伤害的人因物因及环境影响因素并提出了伤害风险评估的维度,将各维度的输入值转化为模糊数,通过区间运算计算暴露时间及风险,从而为消费品质量安全因子的风险评估提供了方法基础,最后通过实例计算描述工具的特性.  相似文献   

9.
Gompertz曲线在耐用商品拥有量预测中的应用   总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2  
本文在分析 Gompertz 曲线性态的基础上,重点阐述如何应用 Gompertz 曲线对耐用商品拥有量进行预测,从而为耐用商品的生产、销售及更新换代提供依据.  相似文献   

10.
对海南省社会消费品零售总额进行预测,对于了解海南省社会消费品零售总额的发展态势,为有关部门作出决策提供科学的依据,具有重大的现实经济意义.选取1999年到2014年的海南省社会消费品零售总额的数据来建立ARIMA(1,3,2)模型,2012年到2014年的实际值与预测值的相对误差5%以内,拟合效果良好,说明采用ARIMA模型预测海南省社会消费品零售总额是可行的,预测数据可靠.最后对海南省2015-2018年的社会消费品零售总额进行预测.  相似文献   

11.
耐用品厂商向消费者提供一定时间期限的免费更换服务已成为一种市场销售策略.免费更换服务期限和所需的更换成本又影响着耐用品的销售价格和销售量.针对耐用品厂商提供免费更换服务的情况,通过建立动态决策模型利用最优控制理论研究垄断厂商有关耐用品最优定价和免费更换服务期限等问题.研究得到:免费更换服务期越长,耐用品最优销售价格越高,而耐用品最优销售量越低;在以最优价格销售耐用品时,免费更换服务期和更换成本均与产品耐用度成正比例关系.  相似文献   

12.
刘东霞  陈红 《运筹与管理》2018,27(7):102-110
考虑耐用品可多周期使用的特点,从消费者效用角度建立了无限周期中存在二手市场时耐用品垄断厂商再制造决策模型。运用稳态均衡分析方法得到,二手市场会降低耐用品垄断厂商选择再制造策略的成本临界值;提高再制造耐用品的最优定价、降低新耐用品的最优定价;新耐用品价值越高、再制造成本越低,二手市场对耐用品垄断厂商的最优决策影响越大。最后,通过数值分析验证了理论分析的结论。  相似文献   

13.
分别选取WIND商品指数和CRB指数作为衡量我国商品期货市场及国际商品期货市场综合价格的指标,利用时变SJC-Copula模型构建两者之间的动态相依结构,通过动态的尾部相关系数来探究我国商品期货市场与国际市场间的尾部相关性.实证结果表明,我国商品期货市场与国际市场间的上尾相关性要强于下尾相关性,即当商品期货价格上涨时,两个市场间更易发生风险传染.  相似文献   

14.
论不完全信息下公共产品的自愿供给效率   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
危启才  李楚霖 《经济数学》2005,22(2):136-143
本文着重研究了不完全信息下公共产品的自愿供给效率.通过建立一个较以往更为一般的贝叶斯博弈模型,将影响公共产品自愿供给效率的各种因素纳入所建模型中,系统深入地剖析了不完全信息下公共产品的自愿供给效率总是显得更为低下的结论.  相似文献   

15.
This paper addresses the problem of mitigating procurement risk that arises from volatile commodity prices by proposing a hedging strategy within a multi-stage time frame. The proposed multi-stage hedging strategy requires a commodity futures position to be correctly initialised and rebalanced with adequate volumes of short/long positions, so as to reduce the volatility in the total procurement cost that would otherwise be generated by varying commodity spot prices. The novelty in the approach is the introduction of the rebalancing of commodity futures position at defined intermediate stages. To obtain an efficient or near optimal multi-stage hedging strategy, a discrete-time stochastic control model (DSCM) is developed. Numerical experiments and Monte Carlo simulation are used to show that the proposed multi-stage hedging strategy compares favourably with the minimal-variance hedge and the one-stage hedge. A close-form optimal solution is also presented for the case when procurement volume and price are independent.  相似文献   

16.
In this paper, we consider the problem of sending a set of multiple commodities from their origin to destination nodes via intermediate hubs. Each hub node is associated with a reliability function, which depends on the total flow that crosses that hub. The probability that each commodity is successfully relayed from its origin to its destination is given by the product of hub reliabilities on the commodity’s path. The problem we consider seeks to find minimum-cost commodity paths such that each commodity reaches its destination with a sufficiently large probability. We first formulate the problem as a nonlinear multicommodity network-flow problem and prove that it is strongly NP-hard. We then present two linearization techniques for this formulation, and propose a pair of lower- and upper-bounding formulations, which can then be used within an exact cutting-plane algorithm to solve the problem. Finally, we analyze the computational effectiveness of our proposed strategies on a set of randomly generated instances.  相似文献   

17.
A Sraffa-type model of price determination is proposed that will serve as a characterization of the consequences of some of the activities of a prices board that has been charged with attempting to control the rate of increase of the absolute level of commodity prices by controlling rates of increase of factor incomes (wages and profits). Specifically, the board chooses new elements for the diagonal matrix of rates of profit and for the vector of labor incomes of a set of (Sraffa-type) equations of production that have been cast into matrix form. The unknowns of these equations are the commodity prices, and with a new set of factor incomes, a new solution set of commodity prices will be generated. The problem of fulfilment of a strict positivity condition for the price solution and that of ensuring the viability of the input-output structure are examined. A possible solution to these problems derives from exclusive concentration by the board on the ‘basic’ (in Sraffa's sense) sector of the economy. A switch from attempting to control rates of increase of factor incomes to attempting to control, directly, the rate of increase in the absolute level of commodity prices is also considered.  相似文献   

18.
利用EGARCH模型对我国部分具有代表性的分类商品零售价格波动的信息效应进行了实证分析.分析结果显示,我国分类商品零售价格波动特征是不同的.在六个具有代表性的分类商品零售价格指数中,有四个指数的方差具有时变性特征.在四个当中,有三个指数有非对称信息效应,即非期望的价格上涨或下降信息对价格波动的影响是非对称的.另外的两个价格指数的方差为常数,价格波动稳定.  相似文献   

19.
Any organization or industry operating in a market where there is unmet demand will be under considerable pressure to meet the demand as quickly as possible. This short-term objective can be met by rapidly expanding productive capacity in terms of both plant or other equipment and also manpower. If the commodity in demand is durable—e.g. housing, cars, computers—then when the initial requirement is met, further output is for replacement purposes. Production during the expansion phase, planned to eliminate the backlog of demand may be much greater than that needed for the next phase, meeting recurrent replacement demand. If capacity is allowed to run down, a later increase in demand will possibly find the organization with too little capacity. There follows a potentially continuing cycle of under- and over-production. Since manpower comprises a significant part of the capacity, this creates a possible cycle of under- and over-employment.Mathematical models of manpower systems can be adapted to investigate the consequences of controlling recruitment policies over fairly long periods of time. If costs can be ascribed to both under- and over-production it is possible to combine the manpower models with mathematical programming techniques to produce optimal longterm recruitment policies.The possible development of the telephone network in the Republic of Ireland is used as an illustrative example. Here it has already been established by government operational research scientists that meeting the original target number of installations for the early 1980's would require impossibly large levels of recruitment immediately. Our model shows that, if the target were achieved, an intolerably large proportion of the workforce would be redundant in a few years time. We use a linear programming model to illustrate viable policies trading off present delays in satisfying demand against future overmanning.  相似文献   

20.
We provide a condition for an individual preference ordering to be represented by a function measured in terms of a commodity, i.e., for the commodity to be transferable utility. We also consider the relationships between conditions of the preference ordering and the utility function.  相似文献   

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