不同均值-风险准则下的资产组合有效前沿比较研究

本文根据V aR和CV aR风险度量方法,对马克维茨的均值-方差资产组合选择模型进行拓展,研究在均值-风险准则下更具有一般性的资产组合选择问题.并在正态分布假设条件下,证明当不存在无风险资产时和存在无风险资产时,基于方差、V aR和CV aR风险度量准则的资产组合有有沿之间的关系,指出根据均值-V aR准则和均值-CV aR准则求解有效资产组合时,置信水平必须满足的条件     

风险分配与风险预算管理

本文首先引入风险度量定义,分析了无组合效应风险与可互换风险这两种具有特殊性质的个体风险特征,在此基础上我们讨论了风险分配应该满足的原则.我们证明并比较了在标准差风险度量下,协方差风险分配函数与相对风险分配函数性质上的差异,并证明风险预算也是一种特殊形式的风险分配函数.最后我们给出不同风险分配函数之间的联系.     

企业债券组合的优化问题研究

信用风险已成为金融业面临的最重要风险形式.通过结构模型估计企业债券的未来价格,建立了投资损失函数,并利用CV aR风险度量方法构造了期望收益最大化的债券组合优化模型,最后利用我国债券市场数据进行了实证分析.     

含有衍生证券的投资组合问题初探

针对投票投资所面临的风险,本文在一定的市场假设下,采用V aR风险度量方法,运用衍生证券“套期保值”的特性,通过股票与其期权的组合,使投资者最大限度地降低投资风险,获得最大收益,最后用实例进行分析.     

基于EVT-CAViaR模型的原油价格极端风险度量

国际原油价格剧烈波动催生了对油价风险管理需求,在此背景下,科学有效地度量油价风险具有突出的现实意义.以WTI原油每日对数收益率为对象,采用EVT-CAViaR模型度量原油价格极端风险.结果表明:WTI原油市场呈现典型的"杠杆效应"与"高峰厚尾"特征.同时,在测算极端市场风险时,EVT-CAViaR模型有较强的预测风险能力,是一种可靠的油价风险度量工具.     

C-ROSS中长寿风险资本要求

为了应对长寿风险,保险公司需要对风险规模有清晰的认识.迄今为止,国内已有文献主要使用内部模型,针对中国保险公司的长寿风险做了度量.即将实施的C-ROSS为我国长寿风险度量提供了第一个标准模型,将是长寿风险度量的重要参考和强制标准.因此将在C-ROSS标准模型技术细节探讨的基础上,计算相应的长寿风险官方要求.根据文献梳理和究显示:长寿风险会给整个年金支付现值带来2~6%支付增加,其中由波动性长寿风险引发的支付增加为1.6~4%,其中(监管要求的)趋势性长寿风险引发的支付增加为1~3%.此外,与欧盟SolvencyⅡ相比,C-ROSS充分考虑了中国人口死亡率改善特点和未来发展趋势,在资本约束较强的背景下,设定了一个审慎、简洁的长寿风险资本要求.     

NGARCH模型在证券投资风险分析中的应用

应用NGARCH模型在三种分布假设下对上证综合指数进行了V aR风险值估计,并且与GARCH模型和APARCH模型估计结果作比较,通过返回检验,发现NGARCH模型应用于V aR估计是统计有效的,且优于GARCH和APARCH模型.     

时变Copula下我国寿险公司投资市场风险经济资本测度

随着保险资金投资渠道的放宽,保险公司对于自身资金运用方面的管理显得日益重要,基于此,选取了国债和政府机构债券、企业债、证券投资基金以及股票这四种资产作为研究对象,将收益率低于同期银行存款利率的情形视为损失,结合样本数据进行了经济资本的测度分析.通过对比以往学者的研究,选定了用GARCH-偏正态分布进行收益率的拟合,并运用时变Copula函数进行风险相关性的测量,计算出了不同置信度下,寿险公司投资市场风险的经济资本.结果显示,时变Copula比常数Copula在风险相关性度量方面表现更好.     

GARCH模型在股票市场风险计量中的应用

本文以上证综指的日收益率为研究对象,运用GARCH模型簇分析上海股市日收益率波动的条件异方差性,计算每天的V aR值.实证研究表明,GARCH模型的V aR计算方法对我国股市风险的管理有较好的效果.     

Haezendonck风险度量的修正和优化

在本文中, 我们对Haezendonck风险度量进行了修正. Haezendonck风险度量是最小的Orlicz风险度量, 它的命名是为了纪念J. Haezendonck, 实际上, Haezendonck风险度量同样是对风险的一种量化, 它在Orlicz空间中研究, 是用一类函数定义的风险度量, 这种风险度量有一些好的性质. 但是在现实生活中, 当风险增大的时候, 损失或收益会相应地变得更大一些. 所以本文从实际出发, 对Haezendonck风险度量进行了修正, 给出了修正Haezendonck风险度量的定义, 并且论证了它的一些性质. 这是对Haezendonck风险度量的推广和改进, 对实际有一定的指导意义.     

均值-方差期望效用函数下的风险共担

借助Samuelson提出的风险汇合(Risk Adding)与风险分担(Risk Pooling)的概念,讨论了风险共担(Risk Sharing)机制产生的原理.在均值-方差效用函数下,给出了帕累托有效风险共担原则的具体形式,以及风险共担群体接纳新的个体,从而形成更大风险共担群体的条件.在此基础上,证明在均值-方差期望效用函数下,当考虑风险共担群体的形成条件以后,帕累托有效的风险共担原则等价于条件期望风险分配函数.从而在这一特殊效用函数下,建立了风险共担与风险分配函数之间的等价关系.     

GlueVaR risk measures in capital allocation applications

GlueVaR risk measures defined by Belles-Sampera et al. (2014) generalize the traditional quantile-based approach to risk measurement, while a subfamily of these risk measures has been shown to satisfy the tail-subadditivity property. In this paper we show how GlueVaR risk measures can be implemented to solve problems of proportional capital allocation. In addition, the classical capital allocation framework suggested by Dhaene et al. (2012) is generalized to allow the application of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) measure in combination with a stand-alone proportional allocation criterion (i.e., to accommodate the Haircut allocation principle). Two new proportional capital allocation principles based on GlueVaR risk measures are defined. An example based on insurance claims data is presented, in which allocation solutions with tail-subadditive risk measures are discussed.     

THE INSURANCE VALUE OF BIODIVERSITY IN THE PROVISION OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

ABSTRACT. Biodiversity provides insurance against the uncertain provision of ecosystem services which are being used by risk‐averse economic agents. I present a conceptual ecological‐economic model that combines (i) current results from ecology about the relationships between biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and the provision of ecosystem services with (ii) economic methods to study decision‐making under uncertainty. In this framework I (1) determine the insurance value of biodiversity, (2) study the optimal allocation of funds in the trade‐off between investing into biodiversity protection and the purchase of financial insurance, and (3) analyze the effect of different institutional regimes in the market for financial insurance on biodiversity protection. I conclude that biodiversity acts as a form of natural insurance for risk‐averse ecosystem managers against the over‐ or under‐provision with ecosystem services. Therefore, biodiversity has an insurance value, which is a value component in addition to the usual value arguments, such as direct or indirect use or non‐use values. In this respect, biodiversity and financial insurance are substitutes. Hence, the availability, and exact institutional design, of financial insurance influence the level of biodiversity protection.     

土地资源的可拓性及优化配置系统结构模型

本文应用可拓学的理论和方法，对土地资源的特征及优化配置原理进行分析，设计了优化配置系统结构模型，为土地资源的优化配置和合理利用提供了一种新的科学方法。     

To split or not to split: Capital allocation with convex risk measures

Convex risk measures were introduced by Deprez and Gerber [Deprez, O., Gerber, H.U., 1985. On convex principles of premium calculation. Insurance: Math. Econom. 4 (3), 179-189]. Here the problem of allocating risk capital to subportfolios is addressed, when convex risk measures are used. The Aumann-Shapley value is proposed as an appropriate allocation mechanism. Distortion-exponential measures are discussed extensively and explicit capital allocation formulas are obtained for the case that the risk measure belongs to this family. Finally the implications of capital allocation with a convex risk measure for the stability of portfolios are discussed. It is demonstrated that using a convex risk measure for capital allocation can produce an incentive for infinite fragmentation of portfolios.     

考虑外部效应与风险因素的多项目优化模型及应用

多项目的组合优化与资源分配优化,实质上是经济学中资源配置与利用问题.运用经济学与管理学的相关理论和定量研究方法,建立了外部效应估算模型、项目评价模型、风险估算模型、多项目组合优化模型和关于资源分配优化的两层决策模型.相关模型的应用实例研究,说明了该模型的有效性.     

污染物排放总量分配的群体决策方法研究

污染物排放总量控制是防治污染的重要途径,污染物排放权的分配是区域污染物排放总量控制工作的核心.本文提出了经济最优性(P1方案)、合理公平性(P2方案)和经济发展连续性(P3方案)的污染物排放权分配原则,研究了以P1方案、P2方案和P3方案为基点的群体决策方法,给出了污染物总量分配的群体决策分配模型.     

基于区间shapley值的中小企业融资联盟利益分配

融资联盟是一种新型的中小企业融资模式,结合中小企业融资联盟预期收益不确定的特点,运用区间shapley值法进行企业间的利益分配,引入联盟企业的风险因子和融资成本,改进后的利益分配方式更具合理性和可行性,有利于维护融资联盟的长期稳定.     

不允许卖空的组合证券投资策略的确定

以Ｍａｒｋｏｗｉｔｚ的均值——方差模型的理论为基础，研究了组合证券投资策略确定过程中的两个主要问题：投资对象的选择方法和风险选择方法     

Asset allocation strategies in the presence of liability constraints

The performance of portfolio managers is usually assessed by comparing their allocation strategies to a benchmark portfolio. A major issue for portfolio managers of liability driven institutions is that no benchmark is given to them, although they face mid-term objectives with short term constraints. No performance attribution methodology may then be used to serve as a reference. Assessing the performance of the asset manager as an agent, represents a major stake for the institution as a principal delegating a mandate of asset management. We propose an optimal asset allocation approach taking into account liability constraints to build a benchmark. This benchmark will be used to compare the ex-post effective performance of the asset manager to the effective performance of the ex-ante optimal dynamic asset allocation.