Occupation time large deviations of the voter model

This paper is a sequel to [5] and [6]. We continue our study of occupation time large deviation probabilities for some simple infinite particle systems by analysing the so-called voter model _t (see e.g., [11] or [8]). In keeping with our previous results, we show that the large deviations are classical in high dimensions (d5 for _t) but fat in low dimensions (d4). Interaction distinguishes the voter model from the independent particle systems of [5] and [6], and consequently exact computations no longer seem feasible. Instead, we derive upper and lower bounds which capture the asymptotic decay rate of the large deviation tails.Dedicated to Frank Spitzer on his 60th birthdayPartially supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant DMS-831080Partially supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant DMS-841317Partially supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant DMS-830549     

Some Properties and Improvements of the Saddlepoint Approximation in Nonlinear Regression

We summarize properties of the saddlepoint approximation of the density of the maximum likelihood estimator in nonlinear regression with normal errors: accuracy, range of validity, equivariance. We give a geometric insight into the accuracy of the saddlepoint density for finite samples. The role of the Riemannian curvature tensor in the whole investigation of the properties is demonstrated. By adding terms containing this tensor we improve the saddlepoint approximation. When this tensor is zero, or when the number of observations is large, we have pivotal, independent, and ² distributed variables, like in a linear model. Consequences for experimental design or for constructions of confidence regions are discussed.     

A third order optimum property of the ML estimator in a linear functional relationship model and simultaneous equation system in econometrics

Summary The maximum likelihood (ML) estimator and its modification in the linear functional relationship model with incidental parameters are shown to be third-order asymptotically efficient among a class of almost median-unbiased and almost mean-unbiased estimators, respectively, in the large sample sense. This means that the limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimator in the simultaneous equation system is third-order asymptotically efficient when the number of excluded exogenous variables in a particular structural equation is growing along with the sample size. It implies that the LIML estimator has an optimum property when the system of structural equations is large. The research was partly supported by National Science Foundation Grant SES 79-13976 at the Institute for Mathematical Studies in the Social Sciences, Stanford University and Grant-in-Aid 60301081 of the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture at the Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. This paper was originally written as a part of the author's Ph.D. dissertation submitted to Stanford University in August, 1981. Some details of the paper were deleted at the suggestion of the associate editor of this journal.     

Moderate deviations for parameters estimation in a geometrically ergodic Heston process

We establish a moderate deviation principle for the maximum likelihood estimator of the four parameters of a geometrically ergodic Heston process. We also obtain moderate deviations for the maximum likelihood estimator of the couple of dimensional and drift parameters of a generalized squared radial Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. We restrict ourselves to the most tractable case where the dimensional parameter satisfies \(a>2\) and the drift coefficient is such that \(b<0\). In contrast to the previous literature, parameters are estimated simultaneously.     

On inference for fractional differential equations

Based on Malliavin calculus tools and approximation results, we show how to compute a maximum likelihood type estimator for a rather general differential equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H>1/2$ . Rates of convergence for the approximation task are provided, and numerical experiments show that our procedure leads to good results in terms of estimation.     

Empirical likelihood estimation of discretely sampled processes of OU type

This paper presents an empirical likelihood estimation procedure for parameters of the discretely sampled process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type. The proposed procedure is based on the condi- tional characteristic function, and the maximum empirical likelihood estimator is proved to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Moreover, this estimator is shown to be asymptotically efficient under some mild conditions. When the background driving Lévy process is of type A or B, we show that the intensity parameter c...     

Asymptotic theory for estimators under random censorship

Summary The product limit estimator of an unknown distributionF is represented as aU-statistic plus an error of the ordero(1/n). Using this, the maximum likelihood estimator of the specific risk rate in the time interval [0,M], is shown to admit a two term Edgeworth expansion. This risk rate for a specific cause of death is defined as the ratio of the probability of death, due to that particular cause, in the time interval [0,M], to the mean life time of an individual up to that time pointM. Similar expansions for the bootstrapped statistics are used to show that the bootstrap distribution, of the studentized estimator of the risk rate, approximates the sampling distribution better than the corresponding normal distribution.Research supported in part by NSA Grant MDA 904-90-H-1001 and by NSF Grant DMS-9007717     

The expansion for the error distribution of sample median and its random weighting statistic

In this paper, the expansion for the error distribution of the sample median is obtained. To mimic the error distribution of the sample median, random weighting statistic is introduced. It is proved in this paper that the precision of the approximation of the error distribution for sample median by random weighting method is of the order ofo(1/n).Partially supported by the Chinese Science Foundation and the Peking University Science Foundation.     

Improving on the mle of a bounded location parameter for spherical distributions

For the problem of estimating under squared error loss the location parameter of a p-variate spherically symmetric distribution where the location parameter lies in a ball of radius m, a general sufficient condition for an estimator to dominate the maximum likelihood estimator is obtained. Dominance results are then made explicit for the case of a multivariate student distribution with d degrees of freedom and, in particular, we show that the Bayes estimator with respect to a uniform prior on the boundary of the parameter space dominates the maximum likelihood estimator whenever and d?p. The sufficient condition matches the one obtained by Marchand and Perron (Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1078) in the normal case with identity covariance matrix. Furthermore, we derive an explicit class of estimators which, for , dominate the maximum likelihood estimator simultaneously for the normal distribution with identity covariance matrix and for all multivariate student distributions with d degrees of freedom, d?p. Finally, we obtain estimators which dominate the maximum likelihood estimator simultaneously for all distributions in the subclass of scale mixtures of normals for which the scaling random variable is bounded below by some positive constant with probability one.     

Sharp large deviations for the non-stationary Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process

For the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameter is totally different in the stable, unstable, and explosive cases. Notwithstanding this trichotomy, we investigate sharp large deviation principles for this estimator in the three situations. In the explosive case, we exhibit a very unusual rate function with a shaped flat valley and an abrupt discontinuity point at its minimum.     

Likelihood estimation of the extremal index

The article develops the approach of Ferro and Segers (J.R. Stat. Soc., Ser. B 65:545, 2003) to the estimation of the extremal index, and proposes the use of a new variable decreasing the bias of the likelihood based on the point process character of the exceedances. Two estimators are discussed: a maximum likelihood estimator and an iterative least squares estimator based on the normalized gaps between clusters. The first provides a flexible tool for use with smoothing methods. A diagnostic is given for condition , under which maximum likelihood is valid. The performance of the new estimators were tested by extensive simulations. An application to the Central England temperature series demonstrates the use of the maximum likelihood estimator together with smoothing methods.      

Estimation of parameters in the beta binomial model

This paper contains some alternative methods for estimating the parameters in the beta binomial and truncated beta binomial models. These methods are compared with maximum likelihood on the basis of Asymptotic Relative Efficiency (ARE). For the beta binomial distribution a simple estimator based on moments or ratios of factorial moments has high ARE for most of the parameter space and it is an attractive and viable alternative to computing the maximum likelihood estimator. It is also simpler to compute than an estimator based on the mean and zeros, proposed by Chatfield and Goodhart (1970,Appl. Statist.,19, 240–250), and has much higher ARE for most part of the parameter space. For the truncated beta binomial, the simple estimator based on two moment relations does not behave quite as well as for the BB distribution, but a simple estimator based on two linear relations involving the first three moments and the frequency of ones has extremely high ARE. Some examples are provided to illustrate the procedure for the two models.     

Saddlepoint approximations for curved exponential families

An approximation of the density of the maximum likelihood estimator in curved exponential families is derived using a saddlepoint expansion. The approximation is particularly simple in nonlinear regression. An example is considered.     

A strong large deviation theorem

We prove a strong large deviation theorem for an arbitrary sequence of random variables, that is, we establish a full asymptotic expansion of large deviation type for the tail probabilities. An Edgeworth expansion is required to derive the result. We illustrate our theorem with two statistical applications: the sample variance and the kernel density estimator.     

Minimax invariant estimator of a continuous distribution function

Consider the problems of the continuous invariant estimation of a distribution function with a wide class of loss functions. It has been conjectured for long that the best invariant estimator is minimax for all sample sizes n1. This conjecture is proved in this short note.Partially supported by National Science Foundation Grant DMS 9001194.     

Vitesse de convergence presque sûre de l'estimateur à noyau du maximum de vraisemblance local

We consider the local maximum likelihood estimation of $\theta (x)$, unknown parameter of the conditional distribution of Y given $X=x$. The aim of this Note is the study of strong uniform consistency rates of the local maximum likelihood kernel estimator. Under suitable regularity conditions, we establish a uniform law of the logarithm for the maximal deviation of this estimator. The method of proof is based upon functional limit laws derived by modern empirical process theory. To cite this article: D. Blondin, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 342 (2006).     

分数布朗运动随机微分方程的MLE和Bayes估计的大偏差不等式

本文研究了分数布朗运动随机微分方程未知参数的极大似然估计和Bayes估计的偏差不等式.在一定的正则条件下.利用似然方法给出了这两个估计量的大偏差不等式.     

Minimum f-divergence estimators and quasi-likelihood functions

Maximum quasi-likelihood estimators have several nice asymptotic properties. We show that, in many situations, a family of estimators, called the minimum f-divergence estimators, can be defined such that each estimator has the same asymptotic properties as the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator. The family of minimum f-divergence estimators include the maximum quasi-likelihood estimators as a special case. When a quasi-likelihood is the log likelihood from some exponential family, Amari's dual geometries can be used to study the maximum likelihood estimator. A dual geometric structure can also be defined for more general quasi-likelihood functions as well as for the larger family of minimum f-divergence estimators. The relationship between the f-divergence and the quasi-likelihood function and the relationship between the f-divergence and the power divergence is discussed.This work was supported by National Science Foundation grant DMS 88-03584.     

Correction of nonlinear orthogonal regression estimator

For any nonlinear regression function, it is shown that the orthogonal regression procedure delivers an inconsistent estimator. A new technical approach to the proof of inconsistency based on the implicit-function theorem is presented. For small measurement errors, the leading term of the asymptotic expansion of the estimator is derived. We construct a corrected estimator, which has a smaller asymptotic deviation for small measurement errors.Published in Ukrainskyi Matematychnyi Zhurnal, Vol. 56, No. 8, pp. 1101–1118, August, 2004.     

Compound Poisson approximation for unbounded functions on a group,with application to large deviations

Summary A second order error bound is obtained for approximating h d by h d , where is a convolution of measures andQ a compound Poisson measure on a measurable abelian group, and the functionh is not necessarily bounded. This error bound is more refined than the usual total variation bound in the sense that it contains the functionh. The method used is inspired by Stein's method and hinges on bounding Radon-Nikodym derivatives related to . The approximation theorem is then applied to obtain a large deviation result on groups, which in turn is applied to multivariate Poisson approximation.Research of the second author was supported by Schweizerischer Nationalfonds