人力资本对新疆经济增长的影响分析及对策

运用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和岭回归,定量分析了物质资本、人力资本、劳动力等要素对新疆经济增长的影响,并提出从提高人力资本存量,改善人力资本结构入手促进经济增长的对策建议.     

公共资本对产出及私人资本的动态冲击效应研究

估算了我国总的资本存量和公共资本存量,并从资本存量的角度基于结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)研究了公共资本对私人资本和产出的动态影响.通过实证研究得出以下结论:1)在我国公共资本对私人资本具有先"挤入"后"挤出"的效应.给公共资本一个百分点的冲击,在第'三年使得私人资本增加0.5个百分点.2)产出对公共资本冲击的响应更加快速和直接,给公共资本一个百分点的冲击会使得产出在第2期时增长0.8个百分点,但是这种正的响应会逐渐减弱,并在第6期后不再显著.3)方差分解的结果表明,私人资本对产出的贡献率要大于公共资本对产出的贡献率,私人资本对产出贡献率的最大值为61%,而公共资本对产出贡献率的最大值为28%.     

1/f temporal fluctuation: detecting scale–invariance properties of seismic activity in North China

Advanced statistical methodologies have been applied to determine the temporal scaling–invariance laws in seismic activity observed in North China during the period 1980–1998. A counting statistics method is used to highlight the self-similar property of earthquake distribution in time domain, and the temporal 1/f^β fluctuation of the earthquake sequences is detected. The seismicity in North China is characterized by a time clustering effect and shows a β value that is a typical fingerprint of self-similar property. The investigations were carried out over different magnitude thresholds. To compare the behavior of seismicity fluctuations, the rescaled range analysis is also applied to explore the temporal fractal property of the same seismic sequence, and long-term persistence are detected. Both exponent β and H can be used as the key parameters describing the features of the dynamic earthquake evolution system.     

基于Douglas生产函数的广西经济增长因素分析

基于柯布-道格拉斯(Douglas)生产函数,建立1995年至2012年广西经济发展模型,利用R统计软件求出资本和劳动力的产出弹性系数分别为0.81和0.19,再利用索洛增长速度方程求出资本投入、劳力投入和技术进步对广西经济增长的贡献率分别为141.8%、1.5%、-43.3%,这三个因素分别拉动经济增长15.8百分点、0.2百分点和-4.8百分点.表明了资本投入是广西近十几年来经济增长的决定性因素,劳动投入和技术进步对经济增长的贡献比较有限,广西的经济还是处于粗放投入型的增长模式.     

An Analogue Equipment for Use in Production Planning

Many planning problems may be more efficiently resolved by an interaction of man and machine than by either alone. This paper considers an analogue equipment built to assist the production planning of a small number of products which share common labour and machine resources. It deals with up to four products and six production periods at a time. The stock levels which would result at the end of each period with a given forecast demand pattern and a given labour pattern are shown on an array of current meters. This rapid display of the stock position enables the operator to assess many more production plans in a given time than previous manual methods could allow. It also permits rapid modifications to be made to a plan with knowledge of the likely consequences. This is a simple and effective approach to a problem which is difficult to treat analytically.     

空间的生产可能集和技术效率

技术效率的估计方法有参数法和非参数法,由于传统效率分析指标--资金K、劳动力L和产出Y,识别不出资产技术的差异,部分文献在参数法中采用资金装备率k（或加职工人数L）和劳动生产率y来估计企业技术效率.为探讨这一指标体系下的非参数技术效率分析方法,本文将传统（K,L,Y）空间的规模不变生产可能集映射到（k,y）空间,得到（k,y）空间的规模非增生产可能集.我们证明,决策单元在（k,y）空间的规模非增技术效率等于决策单元在传统（K,L,Y）空间的规模不变技术效率（C^2R技术效率）.这一结果简化了传统C^2R技术效率的计算,而且可以在（k,y）空间得到资产物理技术的最佳近似值--资产运营前沿技术.     

On the Optimal Allocation of Resources in the Production of Human Capital

The problem considered here is the allocation of limited school resources over the school-life of students so as to maximize their human capital stock at the end of the schooling period. The constraints faced by school authorities in maximizing the terminal human capital stock include the production technology, a limited budget per pupil, and the constraint that the level of knowledge exceed some minimum level before the pupil can pass to the succeeding grade. The problem is solved using optimal control theory. Both the results obtained generally and those derived for specific examples indicate the optimal allocation is one where the level of expenditure per pupil increases with the grade level of the pupil.     

Oligopoly and stability

In this paper, the so called Theocharis–Cournot problem is reconsidered. It concerns the relation between oligopoly and perfect competition, in particular the destabilization of Cournot equilibrium when the number of competitors increases. Using a CES production function where one input, capital, is fixed during periods of investment, a mixed short/long run market dynamics is set up. In the short run, with capital fixed, there is a capacity limit for production possibilities, whereas, at moments of capital renewal there are constant returns to scale. In this setting the local stability of Cournot equilibrium is reconsidered. It is demonstrated that if no more than two firms reinvest in the same time period, and the wage rate is not too high, then the Cournot equilibrium is stable.     

Relaxation methods of minimization of pseudoconvex functions

Translated from Issledovaniya po Prikladnoi Matematike, No. 8, pp. 3–8, 1980.