Optimal maintenance policy and planned sale date for a machine subject to deterioration and random failure

The decision problem concerning the optimization of the maintenance policy and the selection of the sale date for a machine subject to deterioration and random failure is considered from a control-theoretic viewpoint. The originally stochastic optimal control problem is converted to a deterministic optimal control problem with the coefficients of the state and control variables modified in the performance index. The maximum principle is applied to derive the conditions for the optimal maintenance policy and for the optimal planned sale date. Economic interpretations of these conditions are presented in terms of marginal costs and revenues. An explicit solution is found analytically for the problem in the special case when the failure probability is independent of maintenance. The case of exponentially distributed life time for the machine is analyzed in full detail. Finally, the results are illustrated by an example.     

Optimal preventive maintenance for equipment with two quality states and general failure time distributions

We present an economic model for the optimization of preventive maintenance in a production process with two quality states. The equipment starts its operation in the in-control state but it may shift to the out-of-control state before failure or scheduled preventive maintenance. The time of shift and the time of failure are generally distributed random variables. The two states are characterized by different failure rates and revenues. We first derive the structure of the optimal maintenance policy, which is defined by two critical values of the equipment age that determine when to perform preventive maintenance depending on the actual (observable) state of the process. We then provide properties of the optimal solution and show how to determine the optimal values of the two critical maintenance times accurately and efficiently. The proposed model and, in particular, the behavior of the optimal solution as the model parameters and the shift and failure time distributions change are illustrated through numerical examples.     

Optimal assignment of NOP due-dates and sequencing in a single machine shop

We consider the problem of optimal assignment of NOP due-dates ton jobs and sequencing them on a single machine to minimize a penalty function depending on the values of assigned constant waiting allowance and maximum job tardiness. It is shown that the earliest due date (EDD) order is an optimal sequence. For finding optimal constant waiting allowance, we reduce the problem to a multiple objective piecewise linear programming with single variable. An efficient algorithm for optimal solution of the problem is given.     

A risk approach by credibility theory

This paper attempts to treat some topics of risk theory by means of credibility theory. We study the risk aversion of an agent faced with a situation of uncertainty represented by a discrete fuzzy variable, the relationship between stochastic dominance and credibilistic dominance, and an index of riskiness of discrete credibilistic gambles. In the framework of an optimal saving credibilistic model, the way the presence of risk modifies the level of optimal saving is studied. The main tool of our investigation is an operator defined by B. Liu and Y. K. Liu by which to a discrete fuzzy variable one associates a discrete random variable with the same expected value as the former.     

Hierarchical production policies in stochastic two-machine flowshops with finite buffers

This paper concerns production planning in manufacturing systems with two unreliable machines in tandem. The problem is formulated as a stochastic control problem in which the objective is to minimize the expected total cost of production, inventories, and backlogs. Since the sizes of the internal and external buffers are finite, the problem is one with state constraints. As the optimal solutions to this problem are extremely difficult to obtain due to the uncertainty in machine capacities as well as the presence of state constraints, a deterministic limting problem in which the stochastic machine capacities are replaced by their mean capacities is considered instead. The weak Lipschitz property of the value functions for the original and limiting problems is introduced and proved; a constraint domain approximation approach is developed to show that the value function of the original problem converges to that of the limiting problem as the rate of change in machine states approaches infinity. Asymptotic optimal production policies for the orginal problem are constructed explicity from the near-optimal policies of the limiting problem, and the error estimate for the policies constructed is obtained. Algorithms for constructing these policies are presented.This work was partly supported by CUHK Direct Grant 220500660, RGC Earmarked Grant CUHK 249/94E, and RGC Earmarked Grant CUHK 489/95E.     

On the cutting stock problem under stochastic demand

This paper addresses the one-dimensional cutting stock problem when demand is a random variable. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic nonlinear program with recourse. The first stage decision variables are the number of objects to be cut according to a cutting pattern. The second stage decision variables are the number of holding or backordering items due to the decisions made in the first stage. The problem’s objective is to minimize the total expected cost incurred in both stages, due to waste and holding or backordering penalties. A Simplex-based method with column generation is proposed for solving a linear relaxation of the resulting optimization problem. The proposed method is evaluated by using two well-known measures of uncertainty effects in stochastic programming: the value of stochastic solution—VSS—and the expected value of perfect information—EVPI. The optimal two-stage solution is shown to be more effective than the alternative wait-and-see and expected value approaches, even under small variations in the parameters of the problem.     

An optimal stopping problem for a geometric Brownian motion with poissonian jumps

This paper examines an optimal stopping problem for a geometric Brownian motion with random jumps. It is assumed that jumps occur according to a time-homogeneous Poisson process and the proportions of these sizes are independent and identically distributed nonpositive random variables. The objective is to find an optimal stopping time of maximizing the expected discounted terminal reward which is defined as a nondecreasing power function of the stopped state. By applying the “smooth pasting technique” [1,2], we derive almost explicitly an optimal stopping rule of a threshold type and the optimal value function of the initial state. That is, we express the critical state of the optimal stopping region and the optimal value function by formulae which include only given problem parameters except an unknown to be uniquely determined by a nonlinear equation.     

A Partial Order on Uncertainty and Information

Information and uncertainty are closely related and extensively studied concepts in a number of scientific disciplines such as communication theory, probability theory, and statistics. Increasing the information arguably reduces the uncertainty on a given random subject. Consider the uncertainty measure as the variance of a random variable. Given the information that its outcome is in an interval, the uncertainty is expected to reduce when the interval shrinks. This proposition is not generally true. In this paper, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for this proposition when the random variable is absolutely continuous or integer valued. We also give a similar result on Shannon information.     

OPTIMAL INVESTMENT IN THE PROTECTION OF A VULNERABLE BIOLOGICAL RESOURCE

It is assumed that the probability of destruction of a biological asset by natural hazards can be reduced through investment in protection. Specifically a model, in which the hazard rate depends on both the age of the asset and the accumulated invested protection capital, is assumed. The protection capital depreciates through time and its effectiveness in reducing the hazard rate is subject to diminishing returns. It is shown how the investment schedule to maximize the expected net present value of the asset can be determined using the methods of deterministic optimal control, with the survival probability regarded as a state variable. The optimal investment pattern involves “bang-bang-singular” control. A numerical scheme for determining jointly the optimal investment policy and the optimal harvest (or replacement) age is outlined and a numerical example involving forest fire protection is given.     

Multiproduct single-machine production system with stochastic scrapped production rate, partial backordering and service level constraint

In this paper, a multiproduct single-machine production system under economic production quantity (EPQ) model is studied in which the existence of only one machine causes a limited production capacity for the common cycle length of all products, the production defective rates are random variables, shortages are allowed and take a combination of backorder and lost sale, and there is a service rate constraint for the company. The aim of this research is to determine the optimal production quantity, the allowable shortage level, and the period length of each product such that the expected total cost, including holding, shortage, production, setup and defective items costs, is minimized. The mathematical model of the problem is derived for which the objective function is proved to be convex. Then, a derivative approach is utilized to obtain the optimal solution. Finally, two numerical examples in each of which a sensitivity analysis is performed on the model parameters, are provided to illustrate the practical usage of the proposed methodology.     

基于生长价值跟踪的生鲜农产品采收销售模型

生鲜农产品的生长增值性对于提升渠道价值具有重要贡献。为此,将影响生鲜农产品需求的成熟度进行数学刻画并引入增值性变质库存模型,针对生鲜农产品育成育肥后定时采收销售和达到临界成熟后适时采收销售两种情形建立了农户利润模型,求解出了最优采收销售时间。研究得出,农户适时采收销售获得的利润更大;产品达到临界成熟后,农户无需再付出生产努力。     

模糊随机需求的连续盘点存储策略研究

考虑到需求的模糊随机性,建立模糊随机需求情况下连续盘点存储策略的模糊随机成本模型。利用模糊随机变量的期望值理论,推导出了其成本期望值模型的解析表达式,进而给出了最优再订货点所属区间的判别条件以及最优再订货点和经济订货量的计算式;基于此,设计了一模糊随机需求的连续盘点最优存储策略算法。最后结合数值算例,分析了模糊随机需求概率分布及缺货成本对最优存储策略的影响。     

Asymptotically optimal production policies in dynamic stochastic jobshops with limited buffers

We consider a production planning problem for a jobshop with unreliable machines producing a number of products. There are upper and lower bounds on intermediate parts and an upper bound on finished parts. The machine capacities are modelled as finite state Markov chains. The objective is to choose the rate of production so as to minimize the total discounted cost of inventory and production. Finding an optimal control policy for this problem is difficult. Instead, we derive an asymptotic approximation by letting the rates of change of the machine states approach infinity. The asymptotic analysis leads to a limiting problem in which the stochastic machine capacities are replaced by their equilibrium mean capacities. The value function for the original problem is shown to converge to the value function of the limiting problem. The convergence rate of the value function together with the error estimate for the constructed asymptotic optimal production policies are established.     

Uncertain random programming with applications

Uncertain random variable is a tool to deal with a mixture of uncertainty and randomness. This paper presents an operational law of uncertain random variables, and shows an expected value formula by using probability and uncertainty distributions. This paper also provides a framework of uncertain random programming that is a type of mathematical programming involving uncertain random variables. Finally, some applications of uncertain random programming are discussed.     

Persistence in discrete optimization under data uncertainty

An important question in discrete optimization under uncertainty is to understand the persistency of a decision variable, i.e., the probability that it is part of an optimal solution. For instance, in project management, when the task activity times are random, the challenge is to determine a set of critical activities that will potentially lie on the longest path. In the spanning tree and shortest path network problems, when the arc lengths are random, the challenge is to pre-process the network and determine a smaller set of arcs that will most probably be a part of the optimal solution under different realizations of the arc lengths. Building on a characterization of moment cones for single variate problems, and its associated semidefinite constraint representation, we develop a limited marginal moment model to compute the persistency of a decision variable. Under this model, we show that finding the persistency is tractable for zero-one optimization problems with a polynomial sized representation of the convex hull of the feasible region. Through extensive experiments, we show that the persistency computed under the limited marginal moment model is often close to the simulated persistency value under various distributions that satisfy the prescribed marginal moments and are generated independently.     

Discrete-Time Pricing and Optimal Exercise of American Perpetual Warrants in the Geometric Random Walk Model

An American option (or, warrant) is the right, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell an underlying equity at any time up to a predetermined expiration date for a predetermined amount. A perpetual American option differs from a plain American option in that it does not expire. In this study, we solve the optimal stopping problem of a perpetual American option (both call and put) in discrete time using linear programming duality. Under the assumption that the underlying stock price follows a discrete time and discrete state Markov process, namely a geometric random walk, we formulate the pricing problem as an infinite dimensional linear programming (LP) problem using the excessive-majorant property of the value function. This formulation allows us to solve complementary slackness conditions in closed-form, revealing an optimal stopping strategy which highlights the set of stock-prices where the option should be exercised. The analysis for the call option reveals that such a critical value exists only in some cases, depending on a combination of state-transition probabilities and the economic discount factor (i.e., the prevailing interest rate) whereas it ceases to be an issue for the put.     

HARA frontiers of optimal portfolios in stochastic markets

In this paper, we consider the optimal portfolio selection problem in continuous-time settings where the investor maximizes the expected utility of the terminal wealth in a stochastic market. The utility function has the structure of the HARA family and the market states change according to a Markov process. The states of the market describe the prevailing economic, financial, social and other conditions that affect the deterministic and probabilistic parameters of the model. This includes the distributions of the random asset returns as well as the utility function. We analyzed Black–Scholes type continuous-time models where the market parameters are driven by Markov processes. The Markov process that affects the state of the market is independent of the underlying Brownian motion that drives the stock prices. The problem of maximizing the expected utility of the terminal wealth is investigated and solved by stochastic optimal control methods for exponential, logarithmic and power utility functions. We found explicit solutions for optimal policy and the associated value functions. We also constructed the optimal wealth process explicitly and discussed some of its properties. In particular, it is shown that the optimal policy provides linear frontiers.     

随机活动工期下求解资源约束项目最大期望净现值的动态调度算法

本文研究了随机活动工期下如何调度资源约束项目使得项目的期望净现值最大。首先对问题进行了界定,建立了相应的优化模型,其次针对问题的特点设计了一种动态规划算法。在算法设计的过程中,本文通过对项目网络图结构及不同状态最优值之间关系的分析,优化了动态规划算法状态的生成过程及状态最优值的求解过程,从而加快了算法的求解。使用随机生成的540个不同规模、不同结构的仿真案例对算法的有效性进行了验证,并分析了项目网络特征对算法效率的影响。实验发现:项目的次序强度对算法所需时间有着较大的影响,随着项目次序强度的减小,生成的状态数量会增加,从而计算时间也会增加。本文的研究可以为不确定环境下的项目调度提供决策支持。     

On minimizing expected absorption times

A random walk with variable step size, depending on the location of the particle, is considered. Two cases are discussed: one with two absorbing boundaries, and another when one boundary is absorbing while the other cannot be reached. Generalization of the uniquess problem of a functional equation for the expected duration is proved. Also the optimal policy, i.e. step size for each location minimizing the expected duration, is discussed. The natural solution of the problem in case of two absorbing boundaries is verified, while for the case of one boundary a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of optimal solution is developed, while specific policy still remains open.     

A Mean Variance Approach to the Optimal Machine Maintenance and Replacement Problem

This paper considers a simultaneous maintenance and replacement problem under uncertainty. The effects of maintenance and deterioration are assumed to have a probabilistic effect (of the Markovian type) on a machine's salvage value. This leads to the definition of a non-stationary stochastic process of the machine's salvage value whose mean and variance evolutions are found. These evolutions together with an expected discounted profit functional (as that given by Thompson) allows us to apply the tools of optimal control theory to determine a "certainty-equivalent" maintenance program and the optimum replacement date of the machine. A discussion of the uncertain effects of deterioration and maintenance and managers attitudes towards risk is included as well.