An improved estimation to make Markowitz’s portfolio optimization theory users friendly and estimation accurate with application on the US stock market investment

Using the Markowitz mean–variance portfolio optimization theory, researchers have shown that the traditional estimated return greatly overestimates the theoretical optimal return, especially when the dimension to sample size ratio p/n is large. Bai et al. (2009) propose a bootstrap-corrected estimator to correct the overestimation, but there is no closed form for their estimator. To circumvent this limitation, this paper derives explicit formulas for the estimator of the optimal portfolio return. We also prove that our proposed closed-form return estimator is consistent when n → ∞ and p/n → y ∈ (0, 1). Our simulation results show that our proposed estimators dramatically outperform traditional estimators for both the optimal return and its corresponding allocation under different values of p/n ratios and different inter-asset correlations ρ, especially when p/n is close to 1. We also find that our proposed estimators perform better than the bootstrap-corrected estimators for both the optimal return and its corresponding allocation. Another advantage of our improved estimation of returns is that we can also obtain an explicit formula for the standard deviation of the improved return estimate and it is smaller than that of the traditional estimate, especially when p/n is large. In addition, we illustrate the applicability of our proposed estimate on the US stock market investment.     

Portfolio-optimization models for small investors

Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.     

Portfolio selection and duality under mean variance preferences

This paper uses duality to analyze an investor’s behavior in a n-asset portfolio selection problem when the investor has mean variance preferences. The indirect utility and wealth requirement functions are used to derive Roy’s identity, Shephard’s lemma and the Slutsky equation. In our simple Slutsky equation the income effect is characterized by decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) and the substitution effect is always positive [negative] with respect to an asset’s holding if the asset’s mean return [risk] increases. Substitution effect and income effect work in the same direction presupposed mean variance preferences display DARA.     

A mean-absolute deviation-skewness portfolio optimization model

It is assumed in the standard portfolio analysis that an investor is risk averse and that his utility is a function of the mean and variance of the rate of the return of the portfolio or can be approximated as such. It turns out, however, that the third moment (skewness) plays an important role if the distribution of the rate of return of assets is asymmetric around the mean. In particular, an investor would prefer a portfolio with larger third moment if the mean and variance are the same. In this paper, we propose a practical scheme to obtain a portfolio with a large third moment under the constraints on the first and second moment. The problem we need to solve is a linear programming problem, so that a large scale model can be optimized without difficulty. It is demonstrated that this model generates a portfolio with a large third moment very quickly.Presently at Mitsubishi Trust Bank Co., Ltd.     

Matrix inverse problem and its optimal approximation problem for R-skew symmetric matrices

Let R ∈ C^n×n be a nontrivial involution, i.e., R² = I and R ≠ ±I. A matrix A ∈ C^n×n is called R-skew symmetric if RAR = −A. The least-squares solutions of the matrix inverse problem for R-skew symmetric matrices with R∗ = R are firstly derived, then the solvability conditions and the solutions of the matrix inverse problem for R-skew symmetric matrices with R∗ = R are given. The solutions of the corresponding optimal approximation problem with R∗ = R for R-skew symmetric matrices are also derived. At last an algorithm for the optimal approximation problem is given. It can be seen that we extend our previous results [G.X. Huang, F. Yin, Matrix inverse problem and its optimal approximation problem for R-symmetric matrices, Appl. Math. Comput. 189 (2007) 482-489] and the results proposed by Zhou et al. [F.Z. Zhou, L. Zhang, X.Y. Hu, Least-square solutions for inverse problem of centrosymmetric matrices, Comput. Math. Appl. 45 (2003) 1581-1589].     

The robust Merton problem of an ambiguity averse investor

We derive a closed form portfolio optimization rule for an investor who is diffident about mean return and volatility estimates, and has a CRRA utility. Confidence is here represented using ellipsoidal uncertainty sets for the drift, given a (compact valued) volatility realization. This specification affords a simple and concise analysis, as the agent becomes observationally equivalent to one with constant, worst case parameters. The result is based on a max–min Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman–Isaacs PDE, which extends the classical Merton problem and reverts to it for an ambiguity-neutral investor.     

On Euclidean distance matrices

If A is a real symmetric matrix and P is an orthogonal projection onto a hyperplane, then we derive a formula for the Moore-Penrose inverse of PAP. As an application, we obtain a formula for the Moore-Penrose inverse of an Euclidean distance matrix (EDM) which generalizes formulae for the inverse of a EDM in the literature. To an invertible spherical EDM, we associate a Laplacian matrix (which we define as a positive semidefinite n × n matrix of rank n − 1 and with zero row sums) and prove some properties. Known results for distance matrices of trees are derived as special cases. In particular, we obtain a formula due to Graham and Lovász for the inverse of the distance matrix of a tree. It is shown that if D is a nonsingular EDM and L is the associated Laplacian, then D⁻¹ − L is nonsingular and has a nonnegative inverse. Finally, infinitely divisible matrices are constructed using EDMs.     

Optimal consumption-leisure, portfolio and retirement selection based on α-maxmin expected CES utility with ambiguity

This article studies optimal consumption-leisure, portfolio and retirement selection of an infinitely lived investor whose preference is formulated by ??-maxmin expected CES utility which is to differentiate ambiguity and ambiguity attitude. Adopting the recursive multiplepriors utility and the technique of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), we transform the ??-maxmin expected CES utility into a classical expected CES utility under a new probability measure related to the degree of an investor??s uncertainty. Our model investigates the optimal consumption-leisure-work selection, the optimal portfolio selection, and the optimal stopping problem. In this model, the investor is able to adjust her supply of labor flexibly above a certain minimum work-hour along with a retirement option. The problem can be analytically solved by using a variational inequality. And the optimal retirement time is given as the first time when her wealth exceeds a certain critical level. The optimal consumption-leisure and portfolio strategies before and after retirement are provided in closed forms. Finally, the distinctions of optimal consumption-leisure, portfolio and critical wealth level under ambiguity from those with no vagueness are discussed.     

Portfolio Selection Problem with Minimax Type Risk Function

The investor's preference in risk estimation of portfolio selection problems is important as it influences investment strategies. In this paper a minimax risk criterion is considered. Specifically, the investor aims to restrict the standard deviation for each of the available stocks. The corresponding portfolio optimization problem is formulated as a linear program. Hence it can be implemented easily. A capital asset pricing model between the market portfolio and each individual return for this model is established using nonsmooth optimization methods. Some numerical examples are given to illustrate our approach for the risk estimation.     

The mean-absolute deviation portfolio selection problem with interval-valued returns

In real-world investments, one may care more about the future earnings than the current earnings of the assets. This paper discusses the uncertain portfolio selection problem where the asset returns are represented by interval data. Since the parameters are interval valued, the gain of returns is interval valued as well. According to the concept of the mean-absolute deviation function, we construct a pair of two-level mathematical programming models to calculate the lower and upper bounds of the investment return of the portfolio selection problem. Using the duality theorem and applying the variable transformation technique, the pair of two-level mathematical programs is transformed into a conventional one-level mathematical program. Solving the pair of mathematical programs produces the interval of the portfolio return of the problem. The calculated results conform to an essential idea in finance and economics that the greater the amount of risk that an investor is willing to take on the greater the potential return.     

Portfolio insurance under a risk-measure constraint

We study the problem of portfolio insurance from the point of view of a fund manager, who guarantees to the investor that the portfolio value at maturity will be above a fixed threshold. If, at maturity, the portfolio value is below the guaranteed level, a third party will refund the investor up to the guarantee. In exchange for this protection, the third party imposes a limit on the risk exposure of the fund manager, in the form of a convex monetary risk measure. The fund manager therefore tries to maximize the investor’s utility function subject to the risk-measure constraint. We give a full solution to this non-convex optimization problem in the complete market setting and show in particular that the choice of the risk measure is crucial for the optimal portfolio to exist. Explicit results are provided for the entropic risk measure (for which the optimal portfolio always exists) and for the class of spectral risk measures (for which the optimal portfolio may fail to exist in some cases).     

Fuzzy portfolio model with different investor risk attitudes

We propose a fuzzy portfolio model designed for efficient portfolio selection with respect to uncertain or vague returns. Although many researchers have studied the fuzzy portfolio model, no researcher has yet attempted a behavioral analysis of the investor in the fuzzy portfolio model. To address this problem, we examined investor risk attitudes—risk-averse, risk-neutral, or risk-seeking behaviors—to discover an efficient method for fuzzy portfolio selection. In this study, we relied on the advantages of possibilistic mean–standard deviation models that we believed would fit the risk attitudes of investors. Thus, we developed a fuzzy portfolio model that focuses on different investor risk attitudes so that fuzzy portfolio selection for investors who possess different risk attitudes can be achieved more easily. Finally, we presented a numerical example of a portfolio selection problem to illustrate ways to address problems presented by a variety of investor risk attitudes.     

Portfolio insurance under a risk-measure constraint

We study the problem of portfolio insurance from the point of view of a fund manager, who guarantees to the investor that the portfolio value at maturity will be above a fixed threshold. If, at maturity, the portfolio value is below the guaranteed level, a third party will refund the investor up to the guarantee. In exchange for this protection, the third party imposes a limit on the risk exposure of the fund manager, in the form of a convex monetary risk measure. The fund manager therefore tries to maximize the investor’s utility function subject to the risk-measure constraint. We give a full solution to this non-convex optimization problem in the complete market setting and show in particular that the choice of the risk measure is crucial for the optimal portfolio to exist. Explicit results are provided for the entropic risk measure (for which the optimal portfolio always exists) and for the class of spectral risk measures (for which the optimal portfolio may fail to exist in some cases).     

关于无风险资产不存在时资产组合选择的研究

以往关于资产组合选择的研究大多假设市场上存在无风险资产,但无风险资产实际上是不存在的.当不存在无风险资产时,假设投资者的效用定义在消费上,消费一直是投资者财富的一个固定比例,投资者的最优资产组合由两部分组成:短视的资产组合和对冲组合.假设只有股票和债券两种风险资产,当股票和债券的风险具有负的相关性时,投资者现在会消费更多,同时也会在股票上投资更多;两者正相关时,投资者无法降低风险,会减持股票并降低当前消费;两者不相关时,投资者持有的股票权重和存在无风险资产时一样.最后,还推导出了多种资产情况下最优消费和资产组合的解析表达式.     

Approximability of single machine scheduling with fixed jobs to minimize total completion time

We consider the single machine scheduling problem to minimize total completion time with fixed jobs, precedence constraints and release dates. There are some jobs that are already fixed in the schedule. The remaining jobs are free to be assigned to any free-time intervals on the machine in such a way that they do not overlap with the fixed jobs. Each free job has a release date, and the order of processing the free jobs is restricted by the given precedence constraints. The objective is to minimize the total completion time. This problem is strongly NP-hard. Approximability of this problem is studied in this paper. When the jobs are processed without preemption, we show that the problem has a linear-time n-approximation algorithm, but no pseudopolynomial-time (1 − δ)n-approximation algorithm exists even if all the release dates are zero, for any constant δ > 0, if P ≠ NP, where n is the number of jobs; for the case that the jobs have no precedence constraints and no release dates, we show that the problem has no pseudopolynomial-time (2 − δ)-approximation algorithm, for any constant δ > 0, if P ≠ NP, and for the weighted version, we show that the problem has no polynomial-time 2^q(n)-approximation algorithm and no pseudopolynomial-time q(n)-approximation algorithm, where q(n) is any given polynomial of n. When preemption is allowed, we show that the problem with independent jobs can be solved in O(n log n) time with distinct release dates, but the weighted version is strongly NP-hard even with no release dates; the problems with weighted independent jobs or with jobs under precedence constraints are shown having polynomial-time n-approximation algorithms. We also establish the relationship of the approximability between the fixed job scheduling problem and the bin-packing problem.     

A multicriteria optimization model of portfolio rebalancing with transaction costs in fuzzy environment

In this paper we propose multicriteria credibilistic framework for portfolio rebalancing (adjusting) problem with fuzzy parameters considering return, risk and liquidity as key financial criteria. The portfolio risk is characterized by a risk curve that represents each likely loss of the portfolio return and the corresponding chance of its occurrence rather than a single pre-set level of the loss. Furthermore, we consider an investment market scenario where, at the end of a typical time period, the investor would like to modify his existing portfolio by buying and/or selling assets in response to changing market conditions. We assume that the investor pays transaction costs based on incremental discount schemes associated with the buying and/or selling of assets, which are adjusted in the net return of the portfolio. A hybrid intelligent algorithm that integrates fuzzy simulation with a real-coded genetic algorithm is developed to solve the portfolio rebalancing (adjusting) problem. The proposed solution approach is useful particularly for the cases where fuzzy parameters of the problem are characterized by general functional forms.     

Inverse minimum cost flow problems under the weighted Hamming distance

Given a network N(V, A, u, c) and a feasible flow x⁰, an inverse minimum cost flow problem is to modify the cost vector as little as possible to make x⁰ form a minimum cost flow of the network. The modification can be measured by different norms. In this paper, we consider the inverse minimum cost flow problems, where the modification of the arcs is measured by the weighted Hamming distance. Both the sum-type and the bottleneck-type cases are considered. For the former, it is shown to be APX-hard due to the weighted feedback arc set problem. For the latter, we present a strongly polynomial algorithm which can be done in O(n · m²).     

Integrated portfolio management with options

In this paper we examine the problem of managing portfolios consisting of both, stocks and options. For the simultaneous optimization of stock and option positions we base our analysis on the generally accepted mean–variance framework. First, we analyze the effects of options on the mean–variance efficient frontier if they are considered as separate investment alternatives. Due to the resulting asymmetric portfolio return distribution mean–variance analysis will be not sufficient to identify optimal optioned portfolios. Additional investor preferences which are expressed in terms of shortfall constraints allow a more detailed portfolio specification. Under a mean–variance and shortfall preference structure we then derive optioned portfolios with a maximum expected return. To circumvent the technical optimization problems arising from stochastic constraints we use an approximation of the return distribution and develop economically meaningful conditions under which the complex optimization problem can be transformed into a linear problem being comparably easy to solve. Empirical results based on both, empirical market data and Monte Carlo simulations, illustrate the portfolio optimization procedure with options.     

大偏差控制在部分信息下最优投资问题中的应用

利用大偏差控制技术推广部分信息情形下最优投资模型,研究投资者最大化财富增长率超过给定指标的概率.考虑带有红利的股票市场情形,给出了在部分信息情形下带有红利的最优投资策略和最优值函数.     

Variance Allocation and Shapley Value

Motivated by the problem of utility allocation in a portfolio under a Markowitz mean-variance choice paradigm, we propose an allocation criterion for the variance of the sum of n possibly dependent random variables. This criterion, the Shapley value, requires to translate the problem into a cooperative game. The Shapley value has nice properties, but, in general, is computationally demanding. The main result of this paper shows that in our particular case the Shapley value has a very simple form that can be easily computed. The same criterion is used also to allocate the standard deviation of the sum of n random variables and a conjecture about the relation of the values in the two games is formulated.