基于DEA-Malmquist模型的西北地区能源空间转运格局效率及其变化分析

西北地区有着丰富的能源资源,对其能源空间转运格局进行效率评价及全要素生产率时空演变分析,对推动整个地区的发展有着重要意义.运用DEA中的BCC模型,对2016年西北地区的铁路和公路货运效率进行研究.利用Malmquist指数方法及ArcGIS软件,进一步分析2010-2016年西北地区铁路、公路货运全要素生产率的时空演变和地区差异.研究表明:1)2016年西北地区铁路货运效率总体水平较高,公路中等;存在地区差异性,东部整体高于西部;规模效率决定其有效性.2) 2010-2016年铁路和公路的Malmquist指数整体较稳定,技术进步变化对该指数影响最大.从时空演变来看,2010-2016西北地区铁路货运的Malmquist指数先升后降,地区差异先减小后增大;公路货运的Malmquist指数先降后升,地区差异先减小后增大最后又减小.     

一道最优化问题的解法赏析

1 例题及解答方法 例 已知铁路上A,B两站的距离是100,某地C到铁路的垂直距离为20,AC,BC之间为公路,且铁路货运与公路货运的费用之比为1:2.能在铁路上修建一个货站M,C、M之间为公路,使从B站经M站再到C站的运价最低吗?     

基于不确定理论的铁路货运需求预测

合理预测铁路货运需求是铁路管理部门建设、运营等决策基础。为应对铁路货运需求的复杂变化,基于Pearson相关性分析方法筛选出铁路货运需求的七个具有关键影响的因素,并结合不确定理论建立不确定多元线性回归模型,相应的铁路货运预测结果由传统单一值变成可能的需求区间范围,更加符合处于不确定环境下的铁路货运需求实际情况。选取国家统计局2004~2016年相关数据进实证研究,并与回归模型以及BP模型的预测结果对比分析,实验表明不确定多元线性回归的预测结果更加精确。     

基于灰色预测模型的广东省货运总量预测研究

随着广东融入"一带一路"战略以来,广东货运总量呈现快速发展的态势,但同时货运总量增长过快导致物流基础设施承载负担过重的问题,因此对货运总量规模的测算和货运总量发展趋势的探讨显得尤为重要,利用2011-2017年广东货运总量及其构成等数据,运用EXCEL、MATLABR2018b和数学建模方法,建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型并对模型进行验证,证明模型可用,然后分别对2018-2022年广东省货运总量及其构成进行预测.结果表明:1)广东省货运总量呈逐年增加趋势,在货运总量构成中,只有铁路货运量呈逐年衰减趋势.2)在五种运输方式中,货运量结构严重不均衡,公路货运量、水路货运量平均占比分别为72.554%、24.754%.铁路货运量、管道货运量和民航货运量三者平均占比之和仅占5.522%.这表明广东省运输方式和货运结构亟待优化,同时也反映政府在货运政策调适方面滞后.最后,从基础设施投入与货运网络体系优化方面提出相应的对策.     

基于灰色系统模型的山西省物流需求预测分析

选取山西省2007-2013年的货运周转量、全省生产总值、人均生产总值、进出口总额、公路里程、铁路营业里程、公路载货汽车拥有量等10个影响因素,利用灰色关联分析对影响山西省物流发展的这些影响因素进行分析,结果显示人均生产总值对山西省物流发展的影响力度最大,选取货运周转量为特征因素,人均生产总值为其相关因素,利用灰色预测模型GM(1,2)模型,对山西省未来3年的物流需求进行预测.预测结果显示:模型具有较高的预测精度,对山西省物流的规划和制2发展战略起到参考作用.     

中心城市货运市场建设项目的系统评价研究

本文通过对公路货运市场的生产和经营状况、所处的经营环境以及货运市场中的运力和货运需求进行了分析 ,提出了货运市场建设项目的评价指标体系 ,并且利用系统评价模型进行评价 ,得出了满意的结果     

基于X11-ARIMA模型的铁路货运周转量分析

铁路货运周转量分析对铁路规划建设以及运营决策有着重要的意义.根据近12年的铁路货运周转量月度数据,利用X11-ARIMA模型进行分析,结果表明:铁路货运周转量的发展基本上经历了线性快速增长、平稳后下降和再增长这样的长期趋势.从季节效应来看,2012年之前的季节效应比较一致,之后季节效应减弱.综合考虑长期趋势和季节效应的影响,用ARIMA(1,1,1)×(1,1,0)_(12)拟合该序列的发展,以2017年1月和6月的数据为考核样本,检验结果表明该模型对数据的预测效果较好.     

考虑库存和市场占有率的纵向一体化

本文将传统的双重加价模型扩展到包含库存因素的上下游厂商均为垄断企业、下游厂商为寡头垄断企业而上游厂商为完全垄断企业以及上游厂商为寡头垄断企业而下游厂商为完全垄断企业的一体化模型，着重探讨了库存成本和市场占有率对纵向一体化的影响。研究结果表明，只有在库存成本较低时，传统的结论才得以维持；一体化始终导致消费者福利上升而不受市场占有率的影响，但一体化使厂商的总利润增加要在市场占有率较高时才能实现。     

主导权异质性视角下的过坝方式货运量分担率研究

翻坝公路与通航建筑物两类过坝方式的主导权,分别由货主和通航管理局所主导。针对货物过坝主导方的异质性,首先建立了各过坝方式的效用函数来分析主导权的转移机制。然后据此结合通航建筑物过坝原则,构建了货运量分担率多目标优化模型。最后以三峡工程为例,探讨了翻坝运输费率和船舶过坝顺序对分担率的影响,进而探讨了缓解大坝通航拥堵的决策机制。结果表明:提高翻坝公路的货运分担,可以有效改善船舶及货物的过坝运输状况;相比翻坝运输费率,降低装卸费率能更有效地提高翻坝公路货运分担水平;船舶过坝存在一个次序区间,使得水运货物经由通航建筑物过坝和经由翻坝公路过坝的效用相同。     

马尔可夫模型的市场预测方法及其应用

本文简述了马尔可夫模型的基本原理，介绍了利用马氏过程的基本特征．即其平稳性和无后效性．对随机现象进行统计预测的方法。本文选取市场为研究对象，根据产品的市场占有率的随机变化过程，建立起市场占有率的马尔可夫预测模型，并进行了实例分析。在模型的实际应用时，要注意系统状态转移的平稳性和进行系统状态划分的有效性。     

Analysing consumer segments to budget for loyalty and promotion programmes and maximize market share

This paper seeks to provide a framework and benchmark for the allocation of marketing budget between promotion and loyalty programmes using an approach that combines a Markov-type market share model and the Lagrange multiplier method to maximize market share. The Lagrange multiplier method, that takes into account the market share and the loyalty effect observable in preceding periods along with the estimated promotional effects, permits the allocation to be optimized and future market share to be maximized. Then, loyalty-based consumer segment are used to explain why the budgeting exercise can achieve the maximization objective. To this end, the study uses consumer panel data concerning three categories, namely, adult milk powder, shampoo, and detergent. It extends previous research on loyalty-based segmentation by focusing on the budget allocation between the two options of loyalty enhancement and promotion programming. A Budget Allocation Grid for Loyalty-based Segmentation is proposed as an aid to understand budget allocation between loyalty and promotion programmes based on the relative sizes of exclusive-loyalty and variety-seeking segments.     

The effects of advertising,prices and distribution on market share volatility

Although the influence of marketing decision variables on market share has received ample attention in the literature, less is known about their effects on volatility. This study attempts to shed light on this issue by empirically examining the effects of advertising, pricing and distribution, not only on market share but also on its volatility, using an EGARCH model. We argue that establishing a link between management-controlled actions, such as advertising, pricing and distribution, and market share volatility may benefit firms seeking to reduce uncertainty in their market share performance. Application of the proposed model to data on two markets (SUVs and Minivans), suggested that advertising, pricing and distribution significantly influence market share volatility.     

A new approach to evaluate the market share of service industries

The purpose of this paper is to apply the model of stochastic networks (networks of quasi-reversible stations) to customer brand-choice behaviour for studying the market share of some service undustries such as in life insurance. We estimate the market share and the mean unit sales of a specified brand in a static market. The model involves use time, customer loyalty, brand switching, initial purchasing and market share variation.     

Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty

Deregulated infrastructure industries exhibit stiff competition for market share. Firms may be able to limit the effects of competition by launching new projects in stages. Using a two-stage real options model, we explore the value of such flexibility. We first demonstrate that the value of investing in a sequential manner for a monopolist is positive but decreases with uncertainty. Next, we find that a typical duopoly firm’s value relative to a monopolist’s decreases with uncertainty as long as the loss in market share is high. Intriguingly, this result is reversed for a low loss in market share. We finally show that this loss in value is reduced if a firm invests in a sequential manner and specify the conditions under which sequential capacity expansion is more valuable for a duopolist firm than for a monopolist.     

Competitive Advertising Under Uncertainty: A Stochastic Differential Game Approach

We analyze optimal advertising spending in a duopolistic market where each firm's market share depends on its own and its competitor's advertising decisions, and is also subject to stochastic disturbances. We develop a differential game model of advertising in which the dynamic behavior is based on the Sethi stochastic advertising model and the Lanchester model of combat. Particularly important to note is the morphing of the sales decay term in the Sethi model into decay caused by competitive advertising and noncompetitive churn that acts to equalize market shares in the absence of advertising. We derive closed-loop Nash equilibria for symmetric as well as asymmetric competitors. For all cases, explicit solutions and comparative statics are presented.     

基于电子优惠券投放和服务创新的线上线下渠道竞争分析

基于豪泰林模型分析具有渠道偏好的线上网络渠道和线下实体渠道市场竞争格局及其博弈关系,构建线上网络渠道投放电子优惠券、线下实体渠道服务创新的渠道竞争模型,剖析优惠券和服务创新对市场份额、定价及利润的影响,并给出具有市场进入时序的渠道退出边界。研究发现:市场缺额情形凭借高价获得较小市场份额下的较高利润,而市场重叠情形的低价策略在较大市场份额下获得较小利润。当服务创新足以支撑实体渠道要价时,其可获得较高利润,守住混合偏好市场;投放电子优惠券的让价方式可增大网络渠道的调价空间,且存在最优电子优惠券面值使网络渠道获得期望收益,夺得混合偏好市场。     

Consumer choice behaviour and new product development: an integrated market simulation approach

The extremely high costs associated with the commercial failure of a new product, stresses the importance of a model that will effectively forecast the market penetration of a product at the design stage. The purpose of our study is to discover heuristics that will better explain market share, an issue of considerable concern to industry, which also, if successfully pursued, will increase the value of the analytical tools developed for managers. A method easy to implement is presented, which improves the value of market simulations in conjoint analysis. The proposed approach deals with two issues common to traditional market simulations in the context of conjoint analysis applications—the lack of differential impact of attributes across alternatives and the absence of accounting for differential substitution across brands (ie, the Independence from Irrelevant Alternatives problem). We deal with the first issue by ‘tuning’ utilities with individual level exponents, as opposed to a common exponent under the ‘ALPHA’ rule (the current state of the art approach). These exponents derive from the range, skewness and kurtosis of the distribution of utilities that a respondent assigns to various products. While these exponents are individual specific, the effects of the coefficients are assumed to be homogeneous across consumers to preserve model parsimony, while accounting for observed heterogeneity in the data. The second issue is studied in the model via a similarity ‘correction’ for each pair of products. The performance of the approach is validated both on real data from a market survey concerning milk, and on simulated data through the design of a Monte Carlo experiment. The results of the simulation for different market scenarios indicate that the approach appropriately exhibits the theoretical properties that are necessary for the efficient representation of consumer choice behaviour. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the state of the art methodology, as well as some more traditional approaches, with regard to the forecasting accuracy on market shares estimation, both on the real and the simulated data sets. The results obtained have important implications for marketing managers concerning the design of new products. A new concept can be tested before it enters the production stage, using data obtained from a market survey. The high predictive accuracy of the model may assist a firm in minimizing the uncertainty and risks associated with a new product launch. The case study with data from a real market survey, illustrates the practical applicability of the approach.     

Competitive facility location with random attractiveness

Customers’ perception of a particular facility’s attractiveness is likely to be heterogeneous. However, existing competitive facility location models assume that facilities’ attractiveness levels are fixed. We extend the gravity model assuming randomly distributed facilities’ attractiveness. We propose two effective solution methods. One is based on discretizing the attractiveness level distribution. The second is based on the concept of an “effective” attractiveness. Effective attractiveness is the level of fixed attractiveness whose calculated optimal market share approximately equals the expected optimal market share under random attractiveness. We show how effective attractiveness is calculated.     

Market share analysis using semi-parametric attraction models

Attraction models used to analyze the effects of marketing instruments on market share hitherto assume certain strict functional forms. We introduce semi-parametric models whose parametric components are equivalent to an exponential or multiplicative function. The nonparametric part is estimated on the basis of penalized generalized least squares taking into account smoothness of nonlinear functions. In the empirical study presented market share models with semi-parametric additive brand attractions attain better fits both according to an information criterion that penalizes a model for degrees of freedom (df) consumed and according to error measures determined by bootstrapping.     

Preemptive patenting under uncertainty and asymmetric information

This paper examines the investment behaviour of an incumbent and a potential entrant that are competing for a patent with a stochastic payoff. We incorporate asymmetric information into the model by assuming that the challenger has complete information about the incumbent whereas the latter does not know the precise value of its opponent’s investment cost. We find that even a small probability of being preempted gives the informationally-disadvantaged firm an incentive to invest at the breakeven point where it is indifferent between investing and being preempted. By investing inefficiently early to protect its market share, the incumbent gives up not only its option to delay the investment, but also reduces the value of the firm by an amount that increases with the investment cost incurred and the potential loss of market share.