离散的SI和SIS传染病模型的研究

为了描述个体的死亡、染病者的恢复以及疾病的传染,引入了相应的概率.基于总种群中个体数量为常数的假设,根据染病者能否恢复分别建立了具有生命动力学的离散SI和SIS传染病模型.所得到的结果显示:它们具有与相应连续模型相同的动力学性态,并确定了各自的阈值.在它们的阈值之下,传染病最终将灭绝;在它们的阈值之上,传染病将会发展成为地方病,染病者的数量将趋向于一确定的正常数.     

高中数学专题研究的一个案例──关于沪闵路─春申路口红绿灯时间设置合理性的研究

一、专题的背景与分析 　　1. 背景 　　闵行区的沪闵路─春申路口是交通特别拥挤的交叉路口之一.家住莘庄地区的同学有一个共同的感受,在他们到校或回家路上必经的沪闵路─春申路口时常遇到塞车现象.……     

报童模型及ARMA预测在航空配餐问题中的应用

航班承载人数的不确定性,造成航空公司在配餐中利润的流失,现存的配餐模式存在较多的浪费.本文利用基于损失厌恶的报童模型和ARMA时间序列分析模型对深圳航空公司某航班的配餐份数进行了建模分析和预测,并通过对两种模型输出的比较,得出了长期预测与短期预测的模型应用理论.将实际的历史数据代人到模型中验证,其结果优于经验模式下的配餐盈利情况.本文所采用的研究方法和研究结果对航空公司的精益发展有建设性的意义.     

巧解一道"牛吃草"问题

"牛吃草"问题又称为消长问题,是17世纪英国伟大的科学家牛顿提出来的.典型牛吃草问题的条件是假设草的生长速度固定不变,不同头数的牛吃光同一片草地所需的天数各不相同,求若干头牛吃这片草地可以吃多少天.由于吃的天数不同,草又是天天在生长的,所以草的存量随吃的天数不断地变化.……     

大钟与六位密码

福尔摩西接到电话的时候正在翻看一本关于城中富翁艾伦王的传奇故事。艾伦王年少时靠贩卖廉价的小闹钟起家,经过几十年的辛勤努力,把自己的事业拓展成了最有名的钟表公司,是本市最有名的富翁。艾伦王年纪已经很大了,身体也不好。他的儿女众多,但是他们和艾伦王的关系并不融洽。大家都猜测他们对艾伦王的财富虎视眈眈。"喂,福尔摩西吗?"约翰焦急的声音从电话那头传过来。"是我。"福尔摩西回应道。     

Drucker-Prager准则可靠度解析

视岩体强度参数为正态分布随机变量,以可靠度理论为基础,推导了Drucker-Prager准则可靠度判别的解析表达式,并通过Monte-Carlo法和一次可靠度方法验证了其正确性.应用所得到的公式分析了岩体强度参数的变异性对屈服准则判别结果的影响.结果表明,强度参数的变异性对Drucker-Prager准则可靠概率的影响程度不尽相同,在变异系数较大的情况下,它们对可靠概率的影响显著,不可忽略.为岩体屈服的可靠度判别提供了一条新思路.     

导数在高考命题中的"五大"热点

导数作为大学的重要内容,进入中学数学教材后,给传统的内容注入了生机与活力,为中学数学命题的研究提供了新视角,新方法.由于导数是研究函数性质的一个很好的工具,它的用途十分广泛,它在解决函数、不等式、解析几何等问题有独到的功能.因此,近几年的高考正逐年加大对导数问题的考查力度,本文通过对07年全国各地高考题的整理和分析寻找命题规律,希望能对今后的教学提供一点复习思路.……     

也谈立体几何中的轨迹问题——从一道调考试题说起

2010-2011学年度武汉市部分学校新高三起点调研测试的一道试题引起了我的注意.原题如下: 在正四面体P-ABC中,M为△ABC内(含边界)一动点,且点M到三个侧面PAB,PBC,PCA的距离成等差数列,则点M的轨迹是 A.一条线段 B.椭圆的一部分 C.双曲线的一部分 D.抛物线的一部分     

股票收益率和新息的尾部估计

利用极值理论来考虑上证综指收益率的尾部.为了选择合理的超越门限,采用平均剩余函数和De-Haan矩估计相结合的方法.在学生t分布和广义误差分布的新患假设下,用GARCH和EGARCH新息的ARMA模型拟合指数收益率,并且使用极值理论的极大似然方法估计模型残差的尾指,估计结果表明收益率的尾指和模型的残差尾指基本一致.     

神奇的骰子

骰子在许多游戏中出现,特别是赌博游戏,当中蕴含了丰富的数学知识,引起了许多数学爱好者们的关注和研究.一个普通的骰子是正六面体,它的六个面分别为数字1,2,3,4,5,6,还有许多不同的骰子、不同的玩法,充满了神奇,但神奇的骰子背后离不开数学知识的支撑.本文将介绍三     

基于模糊FNN-ELECTRE法的国有商业银行竞争力评价

随着金融业全方位开放,国有商业银行已成为国家经济命脉的核心,其竞争力强弱关系着国家经济的繁荣与衰退。本文基于模糊FNN-ELECTRE方法建立国有商业银行竞争力评价模型,以因素神经网络理论(FNN)与ELECTRE融合方法为基础,以现有商业银行竞争力评价指标为着眼,把国有商业银行竞争力的评价体系从现实竞争力和潜在竞争力两个因素抽取为一级指标,以规模、质量、业务结构、效率、成长性五个因素设为二级指标。从实证的角度对银行A、银行B、银行C、银行D、银行E五大国有银行进行分析验证,对其属性值进行和谐性与非和谐性检验得出,银行B竞争能力最强,银行E竞争能力最弱,五大国有银行均有改进空间。     

Personae at play. ‘Men of Mathematics’ in commentary

Mathematical writers, above all, Euclid, tend to present their theorems as decontextualized, abstract propositions, which has become the standard modus of textual presentation in theoretical mathematics. Mathematical commentators, however, provide their readers with personal names and historical facts in order to elucidate problems, provide contexts of discovery, or construct doxographies, among other things. Modern readers have used such information for the construction of histories of science. When we look at these passages, however, we see that personal names and information about mathematicians of the past can serve quite a range of different objectives, such as the strategic self-positioning of the commentator vis-à-vis the past or present of mathematics, the education of the reader, mathematical or moral, the construction of the history of the field, etc. Not only does the commentator present a persona of himself to the reader, he can also turn colleagues and predecessors into personae. This paper attempts to elucidate the practice, by offering four examples of such plays of and with personae, in Pappus, Eutocius, al-Nayrīzī, and Proclus.     

Formulation of linear problems and solution by a universal machine

Using the predicate language for ordered fields a class of problems referred to aslinear problems is defined. This class contains, for example, all systems of linear equations and inequalities, all linear programming problems, all integer programming problems with bounded variables, all linear complementarity problems, the testing of whether sets that are defined by linear inequalities are semilattices, all satisfiability problems in sentenial logic, the rank-computation of matrices, the computation of row-reduced echelon forms of matrices, and all quadratic programming problems with bounded variables. A single, one, algorithm, to which we refer as theUniversal Linear Machine, is described. It solves any instance of any linear problem. The Universal Linear Machine runs in two phases. Given a linear problem, in the first phase a Compiler running on a Turing Machine generates alinear algorithm for the problem. Then, given an instance of the linear problem, in the second phase the linear algorithm solves the particular instance of the linear problem. The linear algorithm is finite, deterministic, loopless and executes only the five ordered field operations — additions, multiplications, subtractions, divisions and comparisons. Conversely, we show that for each linear algorithm there is a linear problem which the linear algorithm solves uniquely. Finally, it is shown that with a linear algorithm for a linear problem, one can solve certain parametric instances of the linear problem.Research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation Grant DMS 92-07409, by the Department of Energy Grant DE-FG03-87-ER-25028, by the United States—Israel Binational Science Foundation Grant 90-00434 and by ONR Grant N00014-92-J1142.Corresponding author.     

The generalized hierarchical product of graphs

A generalization of both the hierarchical product and the Cartesian product of graphs is introduced and some of its properties are studied. We call it the generalized hierarchical product. In fact, the obtained graphs turn out to be subgraphs of the Cartesian product of the corresponding factors. Thus, some well-known properties of this product, such as a good connectivity, reduced mean distance, radius and diameter, simple routing algorithms and some optimal communication protocols, are inherited by the generalized hierarchical product. Besides some of these properties, in this paper we study the spectrum, the existence of Hamiltonian cycles, the chromatic number and index, and the connectivity of the generalized hierarchical product.     

Wave parameter identification problem for ocean test structure data,part 2, discrete formulation

This paper deals with the solution of the wave parameter identification problem for ocean test structure data. A discrete formulation is assumed. An ocean test structure is considered, and wave elevation and velocities are assumed to be measured with a number of sensors. Within the frame of linear wave theory, a Fourier series model is chosen for the wave elevation and velocities. Then, the following problem is posed: Find the amplitudes of the various wave components of specified frequency and direction, so that the assumed model of wave elevation and velocities provides the best fit to the measured data. Here, the term best fit is employed in the least-square sense over a given time interval.At each time instant, the wave representation involves four indexes (frequency, direction, instrument, time); hence, four-dimensional arrays are required. This formal difficulty can be avoided by switching to an alternative representation involving only two indexes (frequency-direction, instrument-time); hence, standard vector-matrix notation can be used. Within this frame, optimality conditions are derived for the amplitudes of the assumed wave model.A characteristic of the wave parameter identification problem is that the condition number of the system matrix can be large. Therefore, the numerical solution is not an easy task and special procedures must be employed. Specifically, Gaussian elimination is avoided and advantageous use is made of the Householder transformation, in the light of the least-square nature of the problem and the discretized approach to the problem.Numerical results are presented. The effect of various system parameters (number of frequencies, number of directions, sampling time, number of sensors, and location of sensors) is investigated in connection with global or strong accuracy, local or weak accuracy, integral accuracy, and condition number of the system matrix.From the numerical experiments, it appears that the wave parameter identification problem has a unique solution if the number of directions is smaller than or equal to the number of sensors; it has an infinite number of solutions otherwise. In the case where a unique solution exists, the condition number of the system matrix increases as the size of the system increases, and this has a detrimental effect on the accuracy. However, the accuracy can be improved by proper selection of the sampling time and by proper choice of the number and location of the sensors.Generally speaking, the computations done for the discrete case exhibit better accuracy than the computations done for the continuous case (Ref. 5). This improved accuracy is a direct consequence of having used advantageously the Householder transformation and is obtained at the expense of increased memory requirements and increased CPU time.This work was supported by Exxon Production Research Company, Houston, Texas. This paper is based partly on Refs. 1–4.     

提高维吾尔文搜索质量的一些关键技术研究

维吾尔语和土耳其语、乌兹别克语、哈萨克语等同属于阿尔泰语系突厥语分支,是一种粘着型语言,具有丰富的构词合构形附加成分.主要分布于中国新疆维吾尔自治区,以及中西亚地区的维吾尔族使用.目前使用基于阿拉伯文字母的维吾尔文.当前用google,bing等搜索引擎搜索维吾尔文时搜索结果不包括该词语的构词合构形附加成分等其它形式.严重影响了搜索结果的准确性.通过词干提取和词缀附加生成词语组合的方法以解决提高维吾尔文搜索质量的问题.此问题解决,将在大幅度提高维吾尔文搜索的准确性,并针对提高其它突厥语族语言(土耳其语、乌兹别克语、哈萨克语等)的搜索质量、数据挖掘、数据分析、数据安全、自然语言理解等研究领域有一定的参考价值.     

公众参与视角下的央地环境规制博弈分析

本文首先构建环境规制中中央政府和地方政府的两方演化博弈模型,并在此基础上将公众作为第三方参与主体,构建中央政府、地方政府和公众三方演化博弈模型,详细比较两方和三方博弈模型的区别,探究各个主体策略行为的影响因素。研究发现:(1)未有公众参与下,地方政府策略选择主要受地方政府积极执行成本、环境收益、经济损失,消极执行的环境政绩损失,中央政府监管力度、治理补贴和对地方政府的处罚等因素影响;中央政府的监管策略主要受到严格监管的成本以及对地方政府的治理补贴和处罚等因素影响。引入公众参与后,在央地两方博弈的基础上,地方政府环境规制执行策略的影响因素还增加了地方政府被举报后所受到的追加处罚,中央政府监管策略的影响因素还增加了中央政府监管力度、对地方政府的追加处罚以及中央政府的公信力损失。(2)未有公众参与下,中央政府严格监管的概率随地方政府积极执行概率的增大而减小。引入公众参与后,中央政府严格监管率随地方政府积极执行概率的增大而增大。说明在公众参与下,地方政府积极执行环境规制对中央政府严格监管产生的抑制作用转变成了促进作用。(3)地方政府积极执行的概率、中央政府严格监管的概率都随公众举报概率的增大而增大。说明公众参与不仅对地方政府承担环保责任具有促进作用,而且有利于促使中央政府落实环境治理政策。     

Analysis of the Stress State of the Surface Layer of a Polymeric Mass upon Filling of Bulky Compression Molds

The stress state of the surface layer of a polymeric mass during filling of bulky compression molds is analyzed. It is shown that, at particular rheological characteristics of the mass, temperature, and filling rates, cracking of the surface layer occurs, which leads to defects in the finished products. A physical analysis of this process makes it possible to conclude that the cracks arise due to the normal stresses operating in the front region of the moving polymeric mass. It is found that, under certain flow conditions, areas with a pressure lower than the atmospheric one appear on the surface of the polymer. If the tensile stresses arising in these local regions are higher than the tensile strength of the mass, the continuity of the composition is broken in the direction determined by the greatest rate of the normal deformation. To confirm the reliability of the crack-formation mechanism proposed, the distribution of the pressure and normal stresses over the free surface is calculated based on a numerical method. These calculations show that, by comparing the stress level achieved in the front region with the tensile-strength characteristics of the polymeric composition, it is possible to predict, with a sufficient accuracy, the possibility of crack formation in the surface layer of such a mass under given flow conditions and thus to solve the question on flawless manufacturing of products.     

考虑成本、等待时间和安全水平的分类安检模式研究

近年来,随着民航机场旅客吞吐量快速增加,机场安检部门的工作压力正不断加大,旅客等待时间也正在逐渐增加。针对该问题,引入了分类安检模式。然而,分类安检模式通常需要额外的投资成本,可能会产生较大的财务负担。因此,以成本为目标,综合考虑旅客等待时间和安全水平的要求,研究了分类安检模式和传统安检模式的比较以及最优决策性质等相关问题。首先,考虑安全水平和旅客等待时间的约束,分别为传统安检模式和分类安检模式建立了模型,并分析了其最优运营决策性质。其次,从成本的角度,对两种安检模式做了比较研究。研究结果表明,当旅客数量多、安检犯错容忍度较高或旅客等待敏感时,分类安检模式比传统安检模式表现更优;反之,传统安检模式更优。此外,在分类安检模式中,分配到高风险安检通道的旅客比例存在一个最优值,并且其通常在20%到30%之间取到。最后,通过数值分析验证了分类安检模式的最优服务配置。