Benchmarking mean-variance portfolios using a shortage function: the choice of direction vector affects rankings!

In addition to its use in data envelopment analysis models, the shortage function has been proposed as a tool to gauge performance in multi-moment portfolio models. An open issue is how the choice of direction vector affects the efficiency measurement, especially when some of the data can be negative and, from a practical point of view, whether and how the resulting league tables are affected. This paper illustrates empirically how the choice of direction vector affects the relative ranking of mean-variance portfolios. This result is relevant to all frontier-based applications, especially those where some of the data can be naturally negative.     

Improved probabilistic point estimation schemes for uncertainty analysis

The probabilistic point estimation (PPE) methods replace the probability distribution of the random parameters of a model with a finite number of discrete points in sample space selected in such a way to preserve limit probabilistic information of involved random parameters. Most PPE methods developed thus far match the distribution of random parameters up to the third statistical moment and, in general, could provide reasonable accurate estimation only for the first two statistical moments of model output. This study proposes two optimization-based point selection schemes for the PPE methods to enhance the accuracy of higher-order statistical moments estimation for model output. Several test models of varying degrees of complexity and nonlinearity are used to examine the performance of the proposed point selection schemes. The results indicate that the proposed point selection schemes provide significantly more accurate estimation of model output uncertainty features than the existing schemes.     

A bi‐level neural‐based fuzzy classification approach for credit scoring problems

The credit scoring is a risk evaluation task considered as a critical decision for financial institutions in order to avoid wrong decision that may result in huge amount of losses. Classification models are one of the most widely used groups of data mining approaches that greatly help decision makers and managers to reduce their credit risk of granting credits to customers instead of intuitive experience or portfolio management. Accuracy is one of the most important criteria in order to choose a credit‐scoring model; and hence, the researches directed at improving upon the effectiveness of credit scoring models have never been stopped. In this article, a hybrid binary classification model, namely FMLP, is proposed for credit scoring, based on the basic concepts of fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks (ANNs). In the proposed model, instead of crisp weights and biases, used in traditional multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), fuzzy numbers are used in order to better model of the uncertainties and complexities in financial data sets. Empirical results of three well‐known benchmark credit data sets indicate that hybrid proposed model outperforms its component and also other those classification models such as support vector machines (SVMs), K‐nearest neighbor (KNN), quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Therefore, it can be concluded that the proposed model can be an appropriate alternative tool for financial binary classification problems, especially in high uncertainty conditions. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 18: 46–57, 2013     

Customer choice prediction based on transfer learning

Choice behaviour prediction is valuable for developing suitable customer segmentation and finding target customers in marketing management. Constructing good choice models for choice behaviour prediction usually requires a sufficient amount of customer data. However, there is only a small amount of data in many marketing applications due to resource constraints. In this paper, we focus on choice behaviour prediction with a small sample size by introducing the idea of transfer learning and present a method that is applicable to choice prediction. The new model called transfer bagging extracts information from similar customers from different areas to improve the performance of the choice model for customers of interest. We illustrate an application of the new model for customer mode choice analysis in the long-distance communication market and compare it with other benchmark methods without information transfer. The results show that the new model can provide significant improvements in choice prediction.     

Envisioning uncertainty in geospatial information

Geospatial reasoning has been an essential aspect of military planning since the invention of cartography. Although maps have always been a focal point for developing situational awareness, the dawning era of network-centric operations brings the promise of unprecedented battlefield advantage due to improved geospatial situational awareness. Geographic information systems (GIS) and GIS-based decision support systems are ubiquitous within current military forces, as well as civil and humanitarian organizations. Understanding the quality of geospatial data is essential to using it intelligently. A systematic approach to data quality requires: estimating and describing the quality of data as they are collected; recording the data quality as metadata; propagating uncertainty through models for data processing; exploiting uncertainty appropriately in decision support tools; and communicating to the user the uncertainty in the final product. There are shortcomings in the state-of-the-practice in GIS applications in dealing with uncertainty. No single point solution can fully address the problem. Rather, a system-wide approach is necessary. Bayesian reasoning provides a principled and coherent framework for representing knowledge about data quality, drawing inferences from data of varying quality, and assessing the impact of data quality on modeled effects. Use of a Bayesian approach also drives a requirement for appropriate probabilistic information in geospatial data quality metadata. This paper describes our research on data quality for military applications of geospatial reasoning, and describes model views appropriate for model builders, analysts, and end users.     

变权决策中确定状态变权向量的理想点法

利用因素状态向量构造正理想状态向量X+和负理想状态向量X-,然后由这两个理想状态向量分别构造两个极不均衡的状态向量RX+-和RX-+;根据状态变权向量对RX+-和RX-+的调权效果以及OWA算子中的主观偏好参数A-C(W)建立一个确定状态变权向量参数的数学模型,为解决变权综合过程中如何选用合适的状态变权向量提供了一个可操作性的方法.最后,通过一个实例对该方法的应用进行了分析、验证.     

Initial data truncation for multivariate output of discrete-event simulations using the Kalman filter

Data truncation is a commonly accepted method of dealing with initialization bias in discrete-event simulation. An algorithm for determining the appropriate initial-data truncation point for multivariate output is proposed. The technique entails averaging across independent replications and estimating a steady-state output model in a state-space framework. A Bayesian technique called Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation (MMAE) is applied to compute a time varying estimate of the output's steady-state mean vector. This MMAE implementation features the use, in paralle, of a bank of Kalman filters. Each filter is constructed under a different assumption concerning the output's steady-state mean vector. One of the filters assumes that the steady-state mean vector is accurately reflected by an estimate, called the assumed steady-state mean vector, taken from the last half of the simulation data. As the filters process the output through the effective transient, this particular filter becomes more likely (in a Bayesian sense) to be the best filter to represent the data and the MMAE mean estimator is influenced increasingly towards the assumed steady-state mean vector. The estimated truncation point is selected when a norm of the MMAE mean vector estimate is within a small tolerance of the assumed steady-state mean vector. A Monte Carlo analysis using data from simulations of open and closed queueing models is used to evaluate the technique. The evaluation criteria include the ability to construct accurate and reliable confidence regions for the mean response vector based on the truncated sequences.     

Revised behavioural models for riskless consumer choice

Behavioural models suggest that the value of an alternative is determined by the combination of the context-free effects and the context-dependent effects. The former refer to the absolute position of the choice set and are independent of the context frame or other alternatives. On the other hand, the latter are measured by the relative position of other alternatives and may be influenced by the context effects. Although many behavioural models have been proposed based on prospect theory and the componential context model to capture consumer choice behaviour, they predict inconsistent results in some situations. In this paper, five experiments are used to show the inconsistency between the above two models. Then, two revised behavioural models are proposed to modify prospect theory and the componential context model for releasing that inconsistency.     

Assessing the predictive effectiveness of the variety seeking and reinforcement models

Prediction of customer choice behaviour has been a big challenge for marketing researchers. They have adopted various models to represent customers purchase patterns. Some researchers considered simple zero–order models. Others proposed higher–order models to represent explicitly customers tendency to seek [variety] or [reinforcement] as they make repetitive choices. Nevertheless, the question [Which model has the highest probability of representing some future data?] still prevails. The objective of this paper is to address this question. We assess the predictive effectiveness of the well–known customer choice models. In particular, we compare the predictive ability of the [dynamic attribute satiation] (DAS) model due to McAlister (Journal of Consumer Research, 91, pp. 141–150, 1982) with that of the well–known stochastic variety seeking and reinforcement behaviour models. We found that the stochastic [beta binomial] model has the best predictive effectiveness on both simulated and real purchase data. Using simulations, we also assessed the effectiveness of the stochastic models in representing various complex choice processes generated by the DAS. The beta binomial model mimicked the DAS processes the best. In this research we also propose, for the first time, a stochastic choice rule for the DAS model.     

Statistical inference in partially-varying-coefficient single-index model

Consider a varying-coefficient single-index model which consists of two parts: the linear part with varying coefficients and the nonlinear part with a single-index structure, and are hence termed as varying-coefficient single-index models. This model includes many important regression models such as single-index models, partially linear single-index models, varying-coefficient model and varying-coefficient partially linear models as special examples. In this paper, we mainly study estimating problems of the varying-coefficient vector, the nonparametric link function and the unknown parametric vector describing the single-index in the model. A stepwise approach is developed to obtain asymptotic normality estimators of the varying-coefficient vector and the parametric vector, and estimators of the nonparametric link function with a convergence rate. The consistent estimator of the structural error variance is also obtained. In addition, asymptotic pointwise confidence intervals and confidence regions are constructed for the varying coefficients and the parametric vector. The bandwidth selection problem is also considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the proposed methods, and real data analysis is also used to illustrate our methods.     

基于相对目标接近度的多目标决策方法及其应用

对多目标决策问题 ,引进多目标决策问题的理想点、多目标决策问题的负理想点和任意可行解对应的的目标向量的概念 ;然后将多目标决策问题的理想点、多目标决策问题的负理想点和任意可行解对应的的目标向量标准化 ;再利用 AHP法计算目标函数的权重向量 ;考虑权重后 ,定义任意可行解对应的目标向量的标准化向量到理想点的标准化向量 (和负理想点的标准化向量 )的加权距离 ,从而引进目标向量与理想点的相对目标接近度概念 ,进而提出了一种基于相对目标接近度的多目标决策方法 .并应用该方法对投资组合问题进行决策     

Comparative analysis of asynchronous cellular automata in stochastic pharmaceutical modelling

In pharmaceutical modelling, cellular automata have been used as an established tool to represent molecular changes through discrete structural interactions. The data quality provided by such modelling is found suitable for the early drug design phase where flexibility is paramount. While both synchronous (CA) and asynchronous (ACA) types of automata have been used, analysis of their nature and comparative influence on model outputs is lacking. In this paper, we outline a representative probabilistic CA for modelling complex controlled drug formulations and investigate its transition from synchronous to asynchronous update algorithms. The key investigation points include quantification of model dynamics through three distinct scenarios, parallelisation performance and the ability to describe different release phenomena, namely erosion, diffusion and swelling. The choice of the appropriate update mechanism impacts the perceived realism of the simulation as well as the applicability of large-scale simulations.     

TOPSIS for bi-level MODM problems

TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) is a multiple criteria method to identify solutions from a finite set of alternatives based upon simultaneous minimization of distance from an ideal point and maximization of distance from a nadir point. This paper proposes a fuzzy TOPSIS algorithm to solve bi-level multi-objective decision-making (BL-MODM) problems, and in which the objective function at each level are non-linear functions which are to be maximized. The proposed model for getting the satisfactory solution of the BL-MODM problems includes the membership functions for the upper level decision variables vector with possible tolerances, the membership function of the distance function from the positive ideal solution (PIS) and the membership function of the distance function from the negative ideal solution (NIS). A numerical illustrative example is given to clarify the proposed TOPSIS approach of this paper.     

Modelling dynamic network loading ontransportation networks through a continuous

The efforts spent by researchers in the last few years in traffic modelling have been focused on the modelization of dynamic behaviour of the several components making up a transportation system.In the field of traffic assignment, a large number of models and procedures have been proposed in order to perform Dynamic Network Loading (DNL), that is the reproduction of within-day variable link performances once a corresponding Origin/Destination (O/D) demand and users' choice model has been given. These models can be used both to evaluate traffic flows and, what is more relevant, to simulate the effects of regulation strategies on users' behaviour.

In this paper, after a brief review of the state of the art in this field, a continuous dynamic network loading model is proposed; it removes some of the drawbacks of other packet approach models proposed in literature and explicitly allows the en-route modification of the followed path. An algorithmic development of the model and a set of applications on text networks are also proposed.     

基于RS和SVM的动态供应链成员选择算法

良好的成员选择方法是动态供应链平稳运行的重要基础,针对动态供应链成员选择时面临决策属性多且可供决策分析数据样本少的难题,提出了基于粗糙集和支持向量机的动态供应链成员选择算法,核心是应用粗糙集进行属性约简,然后结合支持向量机进行链上成员分类.方法在保证不会降低分类性能的前提下,达到降低数据维数和分类过程中复杂度的目的.