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1.
A new way of choosing a suitable copula to model dependence is introduced. Instead of relying on a given parametric family of copulas or applying the other extreme of modelling dependence in a nonparametric way, an intermediate approach is proposed, based on a sequence of parametric models containing more and more dependency aspects. In contrast to a similar way of thinking in testing theory, the method here, intended for estimating the copula, often requires a somewhat larger number of steps. One approach is based on exponential families, another on contamination families. An extensive numerical investigation is supplied on a large number of well-known copulas. The method based on contamination families is recommended. A Gaussian start in this approximation looks very promising.  相似文献   

2.
Wavelet analysis is used to construct a rank-based estimator of a copula density. The procedure, which can be easily implemented with ready-to-use wavelet packages, is based on an algorithm that handles boundary effects automatically. The resulting estimator provides a non-parametric benchmark for the selection of a parametric copula family. From a theoretical point of view, the estimation procedure is shown to be optimal in the minimax sense on a large functional class of regular copula densities. The approach is illustrated with actuarial and financial data.  相似文献   

3.
In the context of semi-functional partial linear regression model, we study the problem of error density estimation. The unknown error density is approximated by a mixture of Gaussian densities with means being the individual residuals, and variance a constant parameter. This mixture error density has a form of a kernel density estimator of residuals, where the regression function, consisting of parametric and nonparametric components, is estimated by the ordinary least squares and functional Nadaraya–Watson estimators. The estimation accuracy of the ordinary least squares and functional Nadaraya–Watson estimators jointly depends on the same bandwidth parameter. A Bayesian approach is proposed to simultaneously estimate the bandwidths in the kernel-form error density and in the regression function. Under the kernel-form error density, we derive a kernel likelihood and posterior for the bandwidth parameters. For estimating the regression function and error density, a series of simulation studies show that the Bayesian approach yields better accuracy than the benchmark functional cross validation. Illustrated by a spectroscopy data set, we found that the Bayesian approach gives better point forecast accuracy of the regression function than the functional cross validation, and it is capable of producing prediction intervals nonparametrically.  相似文献   

4.
Bivariate survival function can be expressed as the composition of marginal survival functions and a bivariate copula and, consequently, one may estimate bivariate hazard functions via marginal hazard estimation and copula density estimation. Leveraging on earlier developments on penalized likelihood density and hazard estimation, a nonparametric approach to bivariate hazard estimation is being explored in this article. The new ingredient here is the nonparametric estimation of copula density, a subject of interest by itself, and to accommodate survival data one needs to allow for censoring and truncation in the setting. A simple copularization process is implemented to convert density estimates into copula densities, and a cross-validation scheme is devised for density estimation under censoring and truncation. Empirical performances of the techniques are investigated through simulation studies, and potential applications are illustrated using real-data examples and open-source software.  相似文献   

5.
In this paper, we investigate the quantile regression analysis for semi-competing risks data in which a non-terminal event may be dependently censored by a terminal event. The estimation of quantile regression parameters for the non-terminal event is complicated. We cannot make inference on the non-terminal event without extra assumptions. Thus, we handle this problem by assuming that the joint distribution of the terminal event and the non-terminal event follows a parametric copula model with unspecified marginal distributions. We use the stochastic property of the martingale method to estimate the quantile regression parameters under semi-competing risks data. We also prove the large sample properties of the proposed estimator, and introduce a model diagnostic approach to check model adequacy. From simulation results, it shows that the proposed estimator performs well. For illustration, we apply our proposed approach to analyze a real data.  相似文献   

6.
Stochastic mortality, i.e. modelling death arrival via a jump process with stochastic intensity, is gaining an increasing reputation as a way to represent mortality risk. This paper is a first attempt to model the mortality risk of couples of individuals, according to the stochastic intensity approach. Dependence between the survival times of the members of a couple is captured by an Archimedean copula.We also provide a methodology for fitting the joint survival function by working separately on the (analytical) marginals and on the (analytical) copula. First, we provide a sample-based calibration for the intensity, using a time-homogeneous, non mean-reverting, affine process: this gives the marginal survival functions. Then we calibrate and select the best fit copula according to the Wang and Wells [Wang, W., Wells, M.T., 2000b. Model selection and semiparametric inference for bivariate failure-time data. J. Amer. Statis. Assoc. 95, 62-72] methodology for censored data. By coupling the calibrated marginals with the best fit copula, we obtain a joint survival function, which incorporates the stochastic nature of mortality improvements.We apply the methodology to a well known insurance data set, using a sample generation. The best fit copula turns out to be one listed in [Nelsen, R.B., 2006. An Introduction to Copulas, Second ed. In: Springer Series], which implies not only positive dependence, but dependence increasing with age.  相似文献   

7.
We consider a panel data semiparametric partially linear regression model with an unknown parameter vector for the linear parametric component, an unknown nonparametric function for the nonlinear component, and a one-way error component structure which allows unequal error variances (referred to as heteroscedasticity). We develop procedures to detect heteroscedasticity and one-way error component structure, and propose a weighted semiparametric least squares estimator (WSLSE) of the parametric component in the presence of heteroscedasticity and/or one-way error component structure. This WSLSE is asymptotically more efficient than the usual semiparametric least squares estimator considered in the literature. The asymptotic properties of the WSLSE are derived. The nonparametric component of the model is estimated by the local polynomial method. Some simulations are conducted to demonstrate the finite sample performances of the proposed testing and estimation procedures. An example of application on a set of panel data of medical expenditures in Australia is also illustrated.  相似文献   

8.
Spearman’s rank-correlation coefficient (also called Spearman’s rho) represents one of the best-known measures to quantify the degree of dependence between two random variables. As a copula-based dependence measure, it is invariant with respect to the distribution’s univariate marginal distribution functions. In this paper, we consider statistical tests for the hypothesis that all pairwise Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector are equal. The tests are nonparametric and their asymptotic distributions are derived based on the asymptotic behavior of the empirical copula process. Only weak assumptions on the distribution function, such as continuity of the marginal distributions and continuous partial differentiability of the copula, are required for obtaining the results. A nonparametric bootstrap method is suggested for either estimating unknown parameters of the test statistics or for determining the associated critical values. We present a simulation study in order to investigate the power of the proposed tests. The results are compared to a classical parametric test for equal pairwise Pearson’s correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector. The general setting also allows the derivation of a test for stochastic independence based on Spearman’s rho.  相似文献   

9.
The MAPK pathway is one of the well-known systems in oncogene researches of eukaryotes due to its important role in cell life. In this study, we perform the parameter estimation of a realistic MAPK system by using western blotting data. In inference, we use the modified diffusion bridge algorithm with data augmentation technique by modelling the realistically complex system via the Euler–Maruyama approximation. This approximation, which is the discretized version of the diffusion model, can be seen as an alternative OR approach with respect to the (hidden) Markov chain method in stochastic modelling of the biochemical systems where the data can be fully or partially observed and the time-course measurements are though to be collected at small time steps. Hereby, the modified diffusion bridge technique, which is based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, enables us to accurately estimate the model parameters, presented as the stochastic reaction rate constants, of the diffusion model under high dimensional systems despite loss in computational demand. In the estimation of the parameters, due to the complexity in the decision-making problems of the MCMC updates at different stages, we face with the dependency challenges. We unravel them by checking the singularity of the system in every stage of updates. In modelling, we also assume with/without-measurement error approaches in all states. But in order to evaluate the performance of both models, we initially implement them in a toy system. From the results, we observe that the model with measurement error performs better than the model without measurement error in terms of the mixing features of the MCMC runs and the accuracy of estimates, thereby, it is used for the parameter estimation of the realistic MAPK pathway. From the outcomes, we consider that the suggested approach can be seen as a promising alternative method in inference of parameters via different OR techniques in system biology.  相似文献   

10.
On the Effect of Misspecifying the Density Ratio Model   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The density ratio model specifies that the log-likelihood ratio of two unknown densities is of known linear form which depends on some finite dimensional parameters. The model can be broadened to allow for m-samples in a quite natural way. Estimation of both parametric and nonparametric part of the model is carried out by the method of empirical likelihood. However the assumed linear form has an impact on the estimation and testing for the parametric part. The goal of this study is to quantify the effect of choosing an incorrect linear form and its impact to inference. The issue of misspecification is addressed by embedding the unknown linear form to some parametric transformation family which yields ultimately to its identification. Simulated examples and data analysis integrate the presentation.  相似文献   

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