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1.
利用破产理论和随机控制理论研究保险基金最优投资策略,建立生存概率最大化的目标函数,得到最优投资策略满足的随机微分方程;在初始金逼近0时得到保险基金的最优投资策略的显示解;采用递推算法,得到初始准备金为任意值时的最优投资策略.  相似文献   

2.
建立了Cox-Ingersoll-Ross随机利率下的关于两个投资者的投资组合效用微分博弈模型.市场利率具有CIR动力,博弈双方存在唯一的损益函数,损益函数取决于投资者的投资组合财富.一方选择动态投资组合策略以最大化损益函数,而另一方则最小化损益函数.运用随机控制理论,在一般的效用函数下得到了基于效用的博弈双方的最优策略.特别考虑了常数相对风险厌恶情形,获得了显示的最优投资组合策略和博弈值.最后给出了数值例子和仿真结果以说明本文的结论.  相似文献   

3.
假定金融市场中的投资者仅掌握部分信息,即投资者仅能观测到股票和债券价格,而股票的瞬时回报率和市场的噪声源不能观测.对存款利率和贷款利率不相等的情形,运用凸分析和滤波技术得到了部分信息下股票付红利的Black-Scholes期权定价公式.对部分信息下最大化终端财富的问题,获得了最优投资策略.  相似文献   

4.
建立了Cox-Ingersoll—Ross随机利率下的关于两个投资者的投资组合效用微分博弈模型.市场利率具有CIR动力,博弈双方存在唯一的损益函数,损益函数取决于投资者的投资组合财富.一方选择动态投资组合策略以最大化损益函数,而另一方则最小化损益函数.运用随机控制理论,在一般的效用函数下得到了基于效用的博弈双方的最优策略.特别考虑了常数相对风险厌恶情形,获得了显示的最优投资组合策略和博弈值.最后给出了数值例子和仿真结果以说明本文的结论.  相似文献   

5.
聂高琴  常浩 《应用数学》2020,33(2):525-533
本文主要研究Vasicek随机利率模型下保险公司的最优投资与再保险问题.假设保险公司的盈余过程由带漂移的布朗运动来描述,保险公司通过购买比例再保险来转移索赔风险;同时,将财富投资于由一种无风险资产与一种风险资产组成的金融市场,其中,利率期限结构服从Vasicek利率模型,且风险资产价格过程满足Heston随机波动率模型.利用动态规划原理及变量替换的方法,得到了指数效用下最优投资与再保险策略的显示表达式,并给出数值例子分析了主要模型参数对最优策略的影响.  相似文献   

6.
应用随机最优控制理论研究Vasicek利率模型下的投资-消费问题,其中假设无风险利率是服从Vasicek利率模型的随机过程,且与股票价格过程存在一般相关性.假设金融市场由一种无风险资产、一种风险资产和一种零息票债券所构成,投资者的目标是最大化中期消费与终端财富的期望贴现效用.应用变量替换方法得到了幂效用下最优投资-消费策略的显示表达式,并分析了最优投资-消费策略对市场参数的灵敏度.  相似文献   

7.
对盈余投资于金融市场的跳-扩散风险模型的最优投资策略和破产概率进行了研究,得到最优投资策略和最小破产概率的显示解,发现破产概率满足Lundberg等式.最后通过数值计算,得到最小破产概率与无风险利率,投资和相关系数之间的关系,以及无风险利率和相关系数对最优投资策略的影响.  相似文献   

8.
李亚男  郭军义 《数学学报》2018,61(6):981-990
本文考虑的是允许采用比例再保险策略和投资策略的两个保险公司如何寻找最优合并时刻的问题.两个保险公司的风险过程由漂移布朗运动刻画,目标为最大化它们的生存概率.各个公司的安全负荷系数和波动系数在决定两公司是否要合并时起到了关键作用.决定合并后,公司合并费用,合并前后公司的生存概率状况在决定最优合并时刻时起到了关键作用.我们分两种情况讨论了这个问题并分别给出相应情况下的最优策略和值函数.  相似文献   

9.
概率统计的理论与方法在不确定性投资决策中起着重要的作用.文章从安全首要的决策视角,分析信贷约束对投资者风险投资行为是否存在影响以及如何影响.在存款利率和贷款利率不等且存在贷款额度限制的融资背景下,首先建立了一种包含融资资产的改进型安全首要(MSF)投资组合选择模型,然后给出了最优投资组合以及MSF有效前沿的解析表示以及图形示例,进而解释了利率变化和贷款限制对MSF风险投资行为的影响.研究发现:提高贷款利率和设定贷款限制,既可以预防投资者的违约风险,也可能造成MSF投资者的投资效率损失.因此,合理调整存贷款利率与设定贷款限额有助于发挥货币政策对投资市场的有效调节作用.  相似文献   

10.
本文研究具有随机保费和交易费用的最优投资和再保险策略选择问题.保险公司的盈余通过跳-扩散过程来模拟,假设保费收入是随机的.我们的研究目标是寻找一个最优再保险和投资策略,最大化投资终止时刻财富的期望效用.应用随机控制理论,我们得到最优投资-再保险策略和值函数的显式解.通过数值计算,我们给出模型参数对最优策略的影响.结果揭示了一些令人感兴趣的现象,它们可以对实际中的再保险和投资予以指导.  相似文献   

11.
We consider the problem of managing inventory and production capacity in a start-up manufacturing firm with the objective of maximising the probability of the firm surviving as well as the more common objective of maximising profit. Using Markov decision process models, we characterise and compare the form of optimal policies under the two objectives. This analysis shows the importance of coordination in the management of inventory and production capacity. The analysis also reveals that a start-up firm seeking to maximise its chance of survival will often choose to keep production capacity significantly below the profit-maximising level for a considerable time. This insight helps us to explain the seemingly cautious policies adopted by a real start-up manufacturing firm.  相似文献   

12.
This paper deals with two problems of optimal portfolio strategies in continuous time. The first one studies the optimal behavior of a firm who is forced to withdraw funds continuously at a fixed rate per unit time. The second one considers a firm that is faced with an uncontrollable stochastic cash flow, or random risk process. We assume the firm’s income can be obtained only from the investment in two assets: a risky asset (e.g., stock) and a riskless asset (e.g., bond). Therefore, the firm’s wealth follows a stochastic process. When the wealth is lower than certain legal level, the firm goes bankrupt. Thus how to invest in the fundamental problem of the firm in order to avoid bankruptcy. Under the case of different lending and borrowing rates, we obtain the optimal portfolio strategies for some reasonable objective functions that are the piecewise linear functions of the firm’s current wealth and present some interesting proofs for the conclusions. The optimal policies are easy to be operated for any relevant investor.  相似文献   

13.
We evaluate the benefits of coordinating capacity and inventory decisions in a make-to-stock production environment. We consider a firm that faces multi-class demand and has additional capacity options that are temporary and randomly available. We formulate the model as a Markov decision process (MDP) and prove that a solution to the optimal joint control problem exists. For several special cases we characterize the structure of the optimal policy. For the general case, however, we show that the optimal policy is state-dependent, and in many instances non-monotone and difficult to implement. Therefore, we consider three pragmatic heuristic policies and assess their performance. We show that the majority of the savings originate from the ability to dynamically adjust capacity, and that a simple heuristic that can adjust production capacity (based on workload fluctuation) but uses a static production/rationing policy can result in significant savings.  相似文献   

14.
The set-up cost and yield variability are given and fixed in existing production/inventory models with random yields. However, in many practical situations, they can be reduced by investment in modern production technology. In this paper, we consider an inventory system with random yield in which both the set-up cost and yield variability can be reduced through capital investment. The objective is to determine the optimal capital investment and ordering policies that minimize the expected total annual costs for the system. In addition, an iterative solution procedure is presented to find the optimal order quantity and reorder point and then the optimal set-up cost and yield standard deviation. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the results obtained and assess the cost savings by adopting capital investments. Managerial implications are also included.  相似文献   

15.
A technology credit guarantee policy has been established to provide financial support to technology-based SMEs with a limited asset base. For an effective technology credit guarantee policy, risk management is essential. In this paper, we investigate a survival model that predicts start-up SMEs’ loan default probability at a given time based on technology attributes along with the economic environment and the firm’s characteristics at the time of the technology credit guarantee fund application. This, in turn, is used for the estimation of the technology fund risk along with a stress test. Our work is expected to contribute to reducing the risks associated with technology financing.  相似文献   

16.
Start-up companies are considered an important factor in the success of a nation’s economy. We are interested in the decisions for long-term survival of these firms when they have considerable cash restrictions. In this paper we analyse several inventory control models to manage inventory purchasing and return policies. The Markov decision models are formulated for both established companies that look at maximising average profit and start-up companies that look at maximising their long-term survival probability. We contrast both objectives, and present properties of the policies and the survival probabilities. We find that start-up companies may need to be riskier if the return price is very low, but there is a period where a start-up firm becomes more cautious than an established company and there is a point, as it accumulates capital, where it starts behaving as an established firm. We compare the various models and give conditions under which their policies are equivalent.  相似文献   

17.
在非对称情形下,考虑具有技术不确定和未来收益不确定的竞争研究与开发(R&;D)项目的不可逆策略性投资.利用期权博弈理论和随机优化方法给出了高效研发公司(主导者) 的最优投资阈值和最优投资规则的解析表达式,并证明了由于两公司的竞争使投资阈值下降.其次讨论了两公司的混合投资策略,并给出每个公司执行投资期权的概率和两公司同时执行投资期权的概率. 在最后给出了数值模拟算例来说明该文结论的合理性.  相似文献   

18.
In this paper we discuss multiperiod portfolio selection problems related to a specific provisioning problem. Our results are an extension of Dhaene et al. (2005) [14], where optimal constant mix investment strategies are obtained in a provisioning and savings context, using an analytical approach based on the concept of comonotonicity. We derive convex bounds that can be used to estimate the provision to be set up at a specified time in future, to ensure that, after having paid all liabilities up to that moment, all liabilities from that moment on can be fulfilled, with a high probability.  相似文献   

19.
This paper considers the optimal investment and premium control problem in a diffusion approximation to a non-homogeneous compound Poisson process. In the nonlinear diffusion model, it is assumed that there is an unspecified monotone function describing the relationship between the safety loading of premium and the time-varying claim arrival rate. Hence, in addition to the investment control, the premium rate can be served as a control variable in the optimization problem. Specifically, the problem is investigated in two cases: (i) maximizing the expected utility of terminal wealth, and (ii) minimizing the probability of ruin respectively. In both cases, some properties of the value functions are derived, and closed-form expressions for the optimal policies and the value functions are obtained. The results show that the optimal investment policy and the optimal premium control policy are dependent on each other. Most interestingly, as an example, we show that the nonlinear diffusion model reduces to a diffusion model with a quadratic drift coefficient when the function associated with the premium rate and the claim arrival rate takes a special form. This example shows that the model of study represents a class of nonlinear stochastic control risk model.  相似文献   

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