工程项目投标报价中业主的预期效用研究

本文在作者提出的基于业主效用的投标报价观点（参看［５］）的基础上，考虑原材料供主，承包人垫付资金等制约因素，进一步提出坦率地把工程的风险研究呈出给业主的、投合业主最大预期效用的资金流量的投标报价决策模型．     

风险决策方法在工程投标报价中的应用

在竞争性招标中 ,投标报价决策对于投标的成败和工程承包的盈亏起着决定性作用 .阐述了选择投标项目和确定工程报价的决策理论与方法 .在讨论投标报价理论依据的基础上 ,结合工程案例 ,应用贝叶斯法和期望值法等进行风险决策分析 .可以帮助施工企业迅速合理地做出投标与报价决策 .     

不确定环境下的投标方报价模型研究

在传统投标报价模型的基础上引入风险因子,提出报价要在收益与风险之间进行权衡.放宽了所有投标方的最高成本与最低成本是相同的这一前提假设,并借助Mathematica 5.0推导出投标方的报价模型.最后利用仿真对上述关系进行了分析.     

基于Fuzzy-AHP的国际工程报价及模型应用

国际工程招投标是一种比较成熟、高级和规范化的国际贸易方式.为了在决定投标成功的各项关键因素上发挥出比竞争对手更加强大的优势,提出了利用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法相结合的报价决策模型.利用模型,在考虑到投标项目特有的影响因素前提下,选取合理的评价等级,可以模拟出具体项目的最优报价水平,为决策者做出最优报价决策、提高投标报价的成功率提供定量的辅助工具.     

非合作n人投标报价服从N（μ,σ^2）分布时局中人Ⅰ抽标报价策略的研究

推导了矩阵对策模型，对非合作ｎ人投标报价的分布进行ｘ＾２检验。当非合作ｎ人投标报价服从Ｎ（μ，σ＾２）分布时，根据参数区间公式，估计非合作ｎ人有效报价平均数的范围，局中人Ｉ最佳报价可根据矩阵对策模型来确定。该方法确定的报价与最佳标底的误差能控制在较小的范围内，适用于招标中合成标底的评标办法，对确定报价具有一产用价值。     

土木工程投标报价模型研究

本文主要研究单一不可分土木工程的n人投标报价模型,报价高低不是是否中标的唯一决定性因素,施工方案和工程报价为赢得工程施工合同共同发挥组合效应,并且在一定条件下,通过工程竞标,中标价会趋于Nash平衡。     

面向电子逆向拍卖的多属性报价建议模型

针对多属性拍卖中报价的复杂性和现有报价指导模型的局限性,提出了一个以拍卖方的总价值提升为基本约束,以投标人的利润最大化为目标的多属性报价建议模型,并引入二元变量解决了定性属性的推荐问题。当投标人具有不同的投标能力和偏好时,模型可根据投标人的投标要求进行报价推荐;当存在单位价值相同的推荐报价时,模型设置了相应的约束以鼓励早投标行为。最后,还从理论上证明了该模型的稳定性,并通过算例说明了模型的可行性。     

土木工程投标报价模型研究(英文)

本文主要研究单一不可分土木工程的n人投标报价模型.报价高低不是是否中标的唯一决定性因素,施工方案和工程报价为赢得工程施工合同共同发挥组合效应,并且在一定条件下,通过工程竟标,中标价会趋于Nash平衡.     

建筑业中投标合同的统计和模糊分析

许多货物和劳务合同是依据密标的拍卖签订的。在建筑业中，有报价选择特权的承包商决定工程的标价常常是一个艰难的过程。一般公认的标价办法是实际成本加毛利。本文运用主因素分析法和回归分析法来研究香港的竞争性承包商的投标成效，同时也用模糊线性回归来研究投标过程的结构。最后，根据香港建筑业投标数据库，比较了统计和模糊回归分析这两种方法的结果。     

基于招投标博弈报价策略分析

运用博弈论的理论和方法分析在招投标报价决策过程,对不完全信息下投标工程投标报价、竞标过程来确定自身的动态评判标准,采用概率模型的投标报价,并对这种博弈局势进行了定量剖析,给出招投标决策满意报价的解析结果.     

Neuro-fuzzy approach for short-term electricity price forecasting developed MATLAB-based software

Bid and offer competition is a main transaction approach in deregulated electricity markets. Locational marginal prices (LMP) resulting from bidding competition determine electricity prices at a node or in an area. The LMP exhibits important information for market participants to develop their bidding strategies. Moreover, LMP is also a vital indicator for a Security Coordinator to perform market redispatch for congestion management. This paper presents a method using modular feed forward neural networks (FFNN) and fuzzy inference system (FIS) for forecasting LMPs. FFNN is used to forecast the electricity prices in a short time horizon and FIS to forecast the prices of special days. FFNN system includes an autocorrelation method for selecting parameters and methods for data preprocessing and preparing historical data to train the artificial neural network (ANN). In this paper, the historical LMPs of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland (PJM) market are used to test the proposed method. It is found that the proposed neuro-fuzzy method is capable of forecasting LMP values efficiently. In addition, MATLAB-based software is designed to test and use the proposed model in different markets and environments. This is an efficient tool to study and model power markets for price forecasting. It is included with a database management system, data classifier, input variable selection, FFNN and FIS configuration and report generator in custom formats.     

基于改进的粗糙集条件信息熵和灰关联投影法的工程项目投标决策研究

投标决策是建筑企业面临的一大难题.在分析建设工程投标风险因素的基础上,提出一种基于改进的粗糙集条件信息熵和灰关联投影法的投标决策方法.文中投标风险因素的客观权重经两次修正,更具全面性和合理性;然后结合依靠专家经验确定的主观权重得到综合权重;最后将综合权重应用于灰关联投影法进行投标决策.通过应用实例,验证决策方法的可操作性和合理性,为承包商实际的投标工作提供一定的借鉴和参考.     

Stochastic models for bidding strategies on oligopoly electricity market

In this paper we consider the forward/futures contracts and Asian-type call options for power delivery as important components of the bidding strategies of the players’ profits on the electricity market. We show how these derivatives can affect their profit. We use linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium (SFE) and Cournot models to develop firms’ optimal bidding strategies by including forward/futures contracts and Asian-type options. We extend the methodology proposed by Niu et al. (IEEE Trans Power Syst 20(4):1859–1867, 2005), where only forward contracts for power delivery were considered in the SFE model.     

Constrained equilibrium in a bidding problem

There are a number of situations where firms vie for some constrained total quantity by bidding individual quantities but where the allocation is determined on a ‘pro-rated’ basis. One such example is a licenses-on-demand method of import quota allocation. Bidders are constrained to bid at most the total quantity, and if the sum of all bids exceeds this total, the awards are granted proportional to the fractional amounts that the bidders request. In this note, we identify the (Nash) equilibrium of the model, present some examples, and do a sensitivity analysis of the bids as the total amount available changes. We also look into changes of the bids when a new participant enters the bidding process. In an economic context, such allocation methods are shown to be biased in favor of the least efficient firms.     

Optimum Bid Estimation on Fixed Cost Contracts

The paper presents a competitive bidding model which can be readily implemented in a competitive bidding environment within the construction industry. A method of obtaining a fast and accurate approximation of the optimum bid for a class of bidding problems is developed. The Newton Approximation Method is employed in approximating the root of an equation which maximizes the expected monetary value of a contract. A bidding chart and an example application of the technique are presented.     

未确知有理数在投标方案择优中的应用

评标是工程项目招投标的中心环节,许多评价因素易于定性分析而难于定量分析.根据评标中的主要评价因素,建立起量化评价指标体系,以各量化指标为变量,根据评标实践条件,构建出考虑招标单位相对收益的评标择优决策模型,利用未确知有理数理论,给出对投标方案的综合情况进行量化并进行选择的一个数学模型方法.     

On the robustness of non-linear personalized price combinatorial auctions

Though the VCG auction assumes a central place in the mechanism design literature, there are a number of reasons for favoring Iterative Combinatorial Auctions (ICAs). Several promising ICA formats were developed based on primal–dual and subgradient algorithms. Prices are interpreted as a feasible dual solution and the provisional allocation is interpreted as a feasible primal solution. iBundle(3), dVSV and Ascending Proxy Auction result in VCG payoffs when the coalitional value function satisfies buyer submodularity and bidders bid straightforward, which is an ex-post Nash equilibrium in this case. iBEA and CreditDebit auctions do not even require the buyer submodularity and achieve the same properties for general valuations. Often, however, one cannot assume straightforward bidding and it is not clear from the theory how these non-linear personalized price auctions (NLPPAs) perform in this case. Robustness of auctions with respect to different bidding behavior is a critical issue for any application. We conducted a large number of computational experiments to analyze the performance of NLPPAs with respect to different bidding strategies and valuation models. We compare NLPPAs with the VCG auction and with ICAs with linear prices, such as ALPS and the Combinatorial Clock Auction. While NLPPAs performed very well in case of straightforward bidding, we observe problems with revenue, efficiency, and speed of convergence when bidders deviate.     

偏联系数在投标企业发展趋势分析中的应用

客观事物处在不断的发展之中.工程项目的招标决策,既要考虑投标企业综合施工实力的已有业绩,更要考虑这种业绩的发展趋势,为此把集对分析偏联系数用于投标企业发展趋势的分析,以便从发展的角度作出科学的工程招标决策.     

Approximately optimal bidding policies for repeated first-price auctions

We suggest approximately optimal bidding strategies for games, where similar items are auctioned repeatedly. Considering players?? bounded rationality in practice, the results can further motivate the application of market-based approaches in resource allocation problems. We specialize the bidding algorithm for first-price payment schemes, the building blocks of several simplified selling mechanisms, that are common in practice.     

基于模糊熵权优化的招标代理机构绩效评价研究

以《福建省工程招标代理机构信用等级评定暂行办法》、《黑龙江省工程招标代理机构信用评价暂行办法》等为依据,建立了招标代理机构绩效考核的三级评价指标体系,并运用AHP法确定绩效考核指标的主观权重值.然后,利用信息熵理论与模糊数学建立了熵权优化的绩效考核模糊综合评价模型.最后进行实例计算与分析,表明用此方法对招标代理机构进行绩效考核是科学的、合理可行的.通过将招标代理机构的收入与绩效考核结果挂钩,有利于促进其规范招标代理行为、提高服务质量.