基于可靠性视角的交通堵塞模型

本文从可靠性角度研究了交通堵塞模型.首先,通过合理的假设,建立了道路系统的可靠性模型.然后,利用补充变量方法及拉普拉斯变换技术,得到了道路系统的畅通率、稳态堵塞频度和首次堵塞前系统的平均畅通时间等道路系统评价指标.     

道路行车系统中人的可靠性研究

随着人-车-路-环境系统复杂性的增加和交通事故数量的上升,新型交通设备对其使用者的素质与适应性提出了全面的要求,要提高道路行车系统的整体可靠性,必须对人的可靠性进行分析研究.从人的生理、心理、教育训练、驾车技能等因素对驾驶员可靠性的相关影响进行了探讨.分析了影响驾驶员的可靠性因素,研究了驾驶员的可靠性模型,提出建立有助于驾驶员可靠性分析研究的综合数据库,最后从理论上分析总结了提高驾驶员可靠性的措施从而得出提高道路行车安全的有效途径.     

应用全概率公式研究输水管道系统的可靠性

文中采用网络分解法,以全概率公式为依据对设置连通管的输水管道系统的可靠性进行了分析,建立了设置连通管的输水管道系统的可靠性计算模型;计算表明,三通和输水干管的管段的可靠性变化是影响系统可靠性的敏感性因素.研究成果对于输水管道系统组件的选择、施工与维护管理,具有重要的指导意义.     

核电厂不可修复系统冗余配置的可靠性参数论证

核电厂为了提高可靠性,大量系统都设置了不同程度的冗余系列,通过对核电厂不可修复系统可靠性参数的推导、定量计算和比较分析,从可靠性理论角度,论证了不同的冗余配置方案导致系统不同平均寿命和可靠性分布,为系统冗余配置方案的选择提供参考.     

数学模型在高校领军人才评审中的应用

教育评估的可靠性决定了评估结果的可信性,影响着教育评估的声誉和发展.结合高校领军人才评审探讨了数学可靠性模型在教育评估中的应用,通过建立数学可靠性模型,计算评审系统的可靠性,并结合可靠性计算结果分析了影响评审系统可靠性的因素.     

容错控制系统的可靠性研究

以是否满足性能指标要求为评判标准 ,研究了容错控制系统的可靠性概念的内涵和定义 .基于系统的状态划分 ,以统计理论的观点分析了容错控制系统中的故障概率、容错能力和可靠性问题 .并利用马尔柯夫链对其进行了可靠性问题的建模 .     

具有Bernoulli反馈和Min(N,D)-策略控制的Geo~(λ_1,λ_2)/G/1离散时间可修排队的可靠性分析

考虑具有Bernoulli反馈,可变到达率以及Min(Ⅳ,D)-策略控制的Geo/G/1离散时间可修排队系统的可靠性指标.服务台在服务过程中可能发生故障,顾客的到达率依赖于服务员的状态.使用更新理论,全概率分解技术和概率母函数方法,首先讨论了服务员在任意时刻n~+处于忙的瞬态概率和稳态概率.其次,分析了一些可靠性指标,如服务台的瞬态和稳态不可用度、时间段(0~+,n~+]内服务台的平均故障次数和稳态故障频度.所得结果揭示了可靠性指标的随机分解性质.利用本文的结论直接给出了一些特殊离散时间可修排队系统的可靠性指标.最后,通过数值实例分析了系统参数对可靠性指标的影响.     

定数截尾数据缺失场合下冷贮备串联系统可靠性指标的经验Bayes估计

在定数截尾缺失数据样本下,研究了冷贮备串联系统的可靠性指标评估问题.将经典估计方法和Bayes方法相结合得到了部件的平均寿命、系统可靠度及平均寿命等可靠性指标的Bayes点估计和区间估计.最后利用随机模拟例子说明了方法的正确性和可行性.     

消防气体灭火系统可靠性的贝叶斯估计

由于气体灭火系统样本少,不易计算可靠性,本文采用贝叶斯方法,将验前信息和现场样本信息相结合,从而进行气体灭火系统的可靠性估计,其中包括多源验前信息的折算、融合、检验、权重的计算以及单元和系统的可靠性贝叶斯估计,最后通过实例阐明了该方法的可行性.     

单失效模式双变量函数复杂系统模糊随机可靠性广义模型研究

在综合考虑系统功能函数变量不同属性的基础上 ,建立了单一失效模式下复杂系统模糊随机可靠性的广义模型 ,并讨论了广义模型与各个单一模型之间的关系 ,为产品在复杂状态下的可靠性求解提供了统一的数学模型 .分析讨论表明 :所建立的模糊随机可靠性广义模型更具有一般性 .     

基于系统可靠性的组件综合重要度变化机理分析

重要度理论是一种重要的系统薄弱环节识别和评估方法,被广泛应用于系统可靠性设计优化、维修资源分配、维修决策以及风险分析等领域。本文以组件状态转移率为纽带,分析了组件综合重要度对系统可靠性的影响机理,识别对系统可靠性变化影响最大的组件,综合重要度评估了单位时间内系统可靠性的变化。首先给出综合重要度的定义;其次讨论系统可靠性的组件重要度表示方法;最后在串联和并联系统中,分析综合重要度随着组件状态转移率的变化机理。     

Reliability and cost analysis of series system models using fuzzy parametric geometric programming

In this paper, we have discussed series system models with system reliability and cost. We have considered two types of the model; the former focuses on a problem of optimal reliability for series system with cost constraint and the latter is a center system cost model with reliability goal. It is necessary to improve the reliability of the system under limited available cost of system and also to minimize the systems cost subject to target goal of the reliability. Practically, cost of components has always been imprecise with vague in nature. So they are taken as fuzzy in nature and the reliability models are formulated as a fuzzy parametric geometric programming problem. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the model through fuzzy parametric geometric programming technique.     

噪声实验室供气系统的可靠性分析

文章研究了噪声实验室供气系统的可靠性问题,根据供气系统的工程设计框图绘制了可靠性框图．进而得到了供气系统的可靠性表达式．根据可靠性的评估方法,结合模拟试验的数据得到了供气系统可靠性评估的定量结果．通过时评估结果的分析,给出了改进噪声实验室供气系统的工程设计从而提高其可靠性的方法．     

Nonparametric predictive reliability of series of voting systems

Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI) for system reliability reflects the dependence of reliabilities of similar components due to limited knowledge from testing. NPI has recently been presented for reliability of a single voting system consisting of multiple types of components. The components are all assumed to play the same role within the system, but with regard to their reliability components of different types are assumed to be independent. The information from tests is available per type of component. This paper presents NPI for systems with subsystems in a series structure, where all subsystems are voting systems and components of the same type can be in different subsystems. As NPI uses only few modelling assumptions, system reliability is quantified by lower and upper probabilities, reflecting the limited information in the test data. The results are illustrated by examples, which also illustrate important aspects of redundancy and diversity for system reliability.     

Modeling and analysis of system reliability using phase‐type distribution closure properties

Phase‐type distribution closure properties are utilized to devise algorithms for generating reliability functions of systems with basic structures. These structures include series, parallel, K‐out‐of‐N, and standby structures with perfect/imperfect switch. The algorithms form a method for system reliability modeling and analysis based on the relationship between the system lifetime and component lifetimes for general structures. The proposed method is suitable for functional system reliability analysis, which can produce reliability functions of systems with independent components instead of only system reliability values. Once the system reliability function is obtained, other reliability measures such as the system's hazard function and mean time to failure can be obtained efficiently using only matrix algebra. Dimensional and numerical comparisons with computerized symbolic processing are also presented to show the superiority of the proposed method.     

The reliability analysis of probabilistic and interval hybrid structural system

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of probabilistic and interval hybrid structural system. The hybrid structural system includes two kinds of uncertain parameters—probabilistic parameters and interval parameters. Based on the interval reliability model and probabilistic operation, a new probabilistic and interval hybrid reliability model is proposed. Firstly, we use the interval reliability model to analyze the performance function, and then sum up reliability of all regions divided by the failure plane. Based on the presented optimal criterion enumerating the main failure modes of hybrid structural system and the relationship of failure modes, the reliability of structure system can be obtained. By means of the numerical examples, the hybrid reliability model and the traditional probabilistic reliability model are critically contrasted. The results indicate the presented reliability model is more suitable for analysis and design of these structural systems and it can ensure the security of system well, and it only needs less uncertain information.     

一类不同可靠度部件非单调关联系统的最优设计

本文对航天系统中应用广泛的一类典型的非单调关联系统（ｎ中取ｒ至ｓ系统）进行了可靠性分析,比较了目前对系统进行可靠度计算的几种方法的优劣,详细研究了给定ｒ,ｓ及不同部件可靠度ｐ_ｉ的情况下,使系统效益达到最高的条件ｎ值的最优配置问题,并结合国外某类航天系统工程中的计算机集成系统给出了一个数值例子,并用面向 Ｗｉｎｄｏｗｓ的 ＶＢ６． ０实现了一个图形交互的求解系统最优配置和系统可靠度的软件．     

开关寿命连续型n部件冷贮备系统的可靠性分析

为了讨论由n个同型部件和一个转换开关组成的冷贮备不可修系统的可靠度,假设部件的工作时间和转换开关的寿命均服从指数分布、所有随机变量均相互独立,首先根据系统的特征和可靠度的定义研究并求出三部件冷储备系统可靠度的解析式,然后在三部件冷储备系统可靠度研究的基础上建立了n部件冷贮备系统的可靠性关于部件个数n的递推关系式,最终得到系统的可靠度的解析表达式.计算过程对其他多部件系统可靠度的推导有一定的借鉴作用,计算结果具有一定的理论价值.     

某型工程车系统可靠性分析

本应用失效树分析法,以某型工程车进行了可靠性分析,建立了该系统的失效树,在此基础上用最小割集法和系统失效树的可靠性仿真法计算了该系统的可靠性参数,并对一些结果进行了比较。