货币供应量对股市影响的STR分析

使用1997—2012年的季度数据,建立了货币供应量M2与上证综合指数的平滑转换回归模型(STR),研究结果发现,货币供应量M2对上证综合指数的影响机制是非线性的,且是正向的影响.非线性关系的存在说明我国货币政策对股票市场的影响比较复杂,这也为我国货币政策的实施提出了挑战.     

短期出口信用保险报损率宏观经济影响因素研究

影响短期出口信用保险报损率的主要因素是海外信用风险水平.选取欧洲地区工业增加值、进口额、货币供应量、利率、汇率等宏观经济指标作为研究欧洲地区的短期险报损率的解释变量,探讨其宏观经济因素同报损率的内在关系.利用偏最小二乘方法建立模型,实证结果表明,工业增加值、进口额、货币供应量、利率与报损率有负相关关系,美元兑欧元汇率与报损率有正相关关系.     

第三方互联网支付对我国广义货币流通的影响

以第三方互联网支付为视角,通过建立向量误差修正模型,定量分析第三方互联网支付对我国广义货币流通的影响,包括对广义货币供应量、广义货币乘数和广义货币流通速度的影响.研究表明:(1)第三方互联网支付会拉动广义货币供应量的增长、放大货币乘数效应、对广义货币流通速度起抑制作用.(2)第三方互联网支付是广义货币供应量、广义货币乘数、广义货币流通速度的单向格兰杰原因.最后,基于理论分析和实证检验结果为监管机构更好的管理第三方互联网支付提出了相关对策建议.     

货币政策对房地产价格影响的非对称性分析——基于LSTVAR模型

由经济学理论分析可知,货币政策对房地产价格的具有显著的影响.利用LM检验和LR检验得到,包含货币政策变量和房地产价格变量的VAR模型具有非线性特征,并构建了相应的LSTVAR模型.运用广义脉冲响应函数研究了货币供应量与利率变化对中国房地产价格动态影响的非对称性.     

中国货币供应过程的异常值和结构突变特征分析

本文对我国不同层次的货币供应动态过程进行建模研究,通过贝叶斯Gibbs抽样方法估计t分布先验设定下动态线性模型参数和状态变量后验均值,以甄别模型中观测和状态过程均可能存在的异常值和结构突变特征。结果表明研究区间内流通中现金M0和狭义货币供应量M1序列均发生结构突变,而广义货币供应量M2受2008年全球金融危机影响也出现异常变动.最后在结构变化的原因分析基础上提出了相关政策建议.     

政府主导背景下的固定资产投资、信贷危机与通货膨胀

我国政府在经济高速增长的过程中发挥了重要的作用,然而这种模式的弊端,也日渐凸显出来。本文运用协整检验和向量自回归模型,在我国现行政府主导投资决策体制的背景下,研究了固定资产投资及其贷款额与通货膨胀水平和货币供应量之间的关系。结果表明,通货膨胀水平、固定资产总投资、固定资产投资的国内贷款额度、广义货币供应量之间具有着长期均衡关系;且它们之间是单向引导关系,并不具有相互反馈的关系。随着时间的推移,固定资产投资的国内贷款额度、M2和固定资产投资对通货膨胀水平的影响越来越显现出来,其中固定资产投资贷款所引起的影响最大,在引起通货膨胀水平变动因素中起到了主导作用。因此,减少政府对投资领域的过多干预,有利于实现宏观经济平稳快速可持续发展。     

货币供应量序列结构变化的内生断点检定

对2000年1月至2012年5月流通中的货币、狭义货币、广义货币进行结构变化的内生断点检验。综合结构变化单、双断点检验的结果,发现两种实证检验的结果是基本一致的。内生断点频繁地发生于2009年第一季度,金融危机爆发后扩张型货币政策使得货币供应量出现向上的截距漂移。其他断点发生在2004年6月、2007午2月和2010年2月等,这些断点也与特定的货币政策下的重大离散事件相对应,重大离散事件对货币供应量产生持续影响。     

我国货币供应量的ARIMA模型与预测

本文介绍了符合金融系统预测规律的ARIMA时间序列模型，并根据我国货币供应量实际数据对2008年5月-2009年4月货币供应量走势进行了预测检验。实证预测结果显示与实际№相对照，模型预测精度较高，平均相对误差绝对值仅为1．56％，说明ARIMA模型能比较准确地预测我国货币供应量走势，可为我国货币供应量的预测和走势提供可靠的参考依据，并由此预计在2009年9月货币供应量将突破60万亿元。     

外部需求冲击与我国工业产能利用水平波动——基于VAR模型的实证分析

基于2000年1季度至2013年4季度的样本数据,利用向量自回归(VAR)模型重点考察了外部需求冲击对我国工业产能利用水平的影响.实证结果表明,外部需求冲击对工业产能利用水平具有正向作用,外部需求波动主要通过影响我国对外出口水平进而对工业企业的生产与经营造成冲击.随着时间的推移,外部需求冲击对工业产能利用水平的正向冲击作用逐渐减弱.     

利率与住房价格关系的实证研究:2000-2014

从实证的角度分析利率与住房价格关系,利用我国2000至2014年利率和住房价格指标的季度数据,运用协整检验和Granger因果检验分析方法.研究结果表明:基准利率与住房价格呈弱正相关性,考虑通货膨胀后的实际利率与住房价格呈弱负相关性;实际利率可以解释住房价格波动的56%;实际利率对住房价格的影响具有明显的时间滞后性,且体现在中长期内,而无论长期还是短期,住房价格都不会影响实际利率的变化.由此给出的政策建议是:深化利率市场化改革;保持利率政策的一致性和连续性;加强利率政策行业分类指导和调控.     

外商直接投资对国内投资挤入挤出效应的区制动态分析

本文以1999年到2013年的外商直接投资和国内投资的季度数据为基础,采用MS-VECM模型对我国外商直接投资与国内投资的区制状态、区制相关性以及转移概率进行了实证分析。结果表明,在整个样本期内,外商直接投资对我国的国内投资总体上存在挤入效应,但从动态时间路径上看,在经济运行的不同时期,外商直接投资对我国国内投资的影响并不一致,在1999年一季度至2005年三季度期间表现为对国内投资的挤出效应,而在2005年四季度至2013年四季度期间则表现为挤入效应     

基金投资行为与投资绩效实证研究

本文主要研究2000年末到2004年6月国内基金投资行为与投资绩效。我们将基金交易行为分为:新进入、完全退出和对仓位进行调整3类,并分别研究其投资行为。研究结果显示,我国基金交易频率很高,近90%的基金采用动量投资策略,基金新进入股票时动量效应最强。价值型基金更易采取动量投资策略,高动量组收益高于低动量组收益。     

Half Space and Quarter Space Dirichlet Problems for the Partial Differential Equation

A customary, heuristic, method, by which the Poisson integral formula for the Dirichlet problem, for the half space, for Laplace's equation is obtained, involves Green's function, and Kelvin's method of images. Although this heuristic method leads one to guess the correct result, this Poisson formula still has to be verified directly, independently of the method by which it was arrived at, in order to be absolutely certain that a solution of the Dirichlet problem for the half space, for Laplace's equation, has been actually obtained. A similar heuristic method, as seems to be generally known, could be followed in solving the Dirichlet problem, for the half space, for the equation where is a real constant. However, in Part 1, a different, labor-saving, method is used to study Dirichlet problems for the equation. This method is essentially based on what Hadamard called the method of descent. Indeed, it is shown that he who has solved the half space Dirichlet problem for Laplace's equation has already solved the half space Dirichlet problem for the equation In Part 2, the solution formula for the quarter space Dirichlet problem for Laplace's equation is obtained from the Poisson integral formula for the half space Dirichlet problem for Laplace's equation. A representation theorem for harmonic functions in the quarter space is deduced. The method of descent is used, in Part 3, to obtain the solution formula for the quarter space Dirichlet problem for the equation by means of the solution formula for the quarter space Dirichlet problem for Laplace's equation. So that, indeed, it is also shown that he who has solved the quarter space Dirichlet problem for Laplace's equation has already solved the quarter space Dirichlet problem for the " equation" For the sake of completeness and clarity, and for the convenience of the reader, the appendix, at the end of Part 3, contains a detailed proof that the Poisson integral formula solves the half space Dirichlet problem for Laplace's equation. The Bibliography for Parts 1,2, 3 is to be found at the end of Part 1.     

A double degenerated finite element for modeling the crack tip singularity

The objective of this paper is to propose a modified finite element called double quarter point finite element (DQPE) for modeling the singularity near the crack tip. Two techniques of evaluation (displacement correlation technique DCT and quarter point displacement technique QPDT) were used to estimate numerically the calibration factor for CN specimen. This study appears that the DQPE element is more effective than the QPE element. Not only that, but the length of the double quarter point finite element (DQPE) has little impact on the results. Numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed element.     

Global existence and large time behavior of solutions for the bipolar quantum hydrodynamic models in the quarter plane

In this paper, we discuss a bipolar transient quantum hydrodynamic model for charge density, current density, and electric field in the quarter plane. This model takes the form of a classical Euler–Poisson system with the additional dispersion terms caused by the quantum (Bohn) potential. We show global existence of smooth solutions for the initial boundary value problem when the initial data are near the nonlinear diffusive waves, which are different from the steady state. We also show the asymptotical behavior of the global smooth solution towards the nonlinear diffusive waves and obtain the algebraic decay rates. These results are proved by elaborate energy methods. Finally, using the Fourier analysis, we obtain the optimal convergence rates of the solutions towards the nonlinear diffusion waves. As far as we known, this is the first result about the initial boundary value problem of the one‐dimensional bipolar quantum hydrodynamic model in the quarter plane. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stationary Brownian motion in a 3/4-plane: Reduction to a Riemann–Hilbert problem via Fourier transforms

The stationary reflected Brownian motion in a three-quarter plane has been rarely analyzed in the probabilistic literature, in comparison with the quarter plane analogue model. In this context, our main result is to prove that the stationary distribution can indeed be found by solving a boundary value problem of the same kind as the one encountered in the quarter plane, up to various dualities and symmetries. The main idea is to start from Fourier (and not Laplace) transforms, allowing to get a functional equation for a single function of two complex variables.     

组合调整频率会影响投资者的回报率么?——基于分析师股票推荐的投资策略研究

利用巨灵数据库的分析师评级数据,从投资者角度建立动态组合,检验了按每日、每周、每两周、每月、每季度头寸调整频率后的超额收益,研究发现:"买入"评级组合在各种头寸调整频率策略下都获得了超越市场指数的超额回报率,其中按每周频率进行头寸调整策略获得的市场调整后平均超额回报率最高,按三个月频率进行头寸调整策略获得的市场调整后平均超额回报率最低。投资者在面对分析师一致认为"买入"评级股票时,可按照每周更新的频率构建组合,以获取较高的超额回报率。投资者如果按季度调整频率来卖出股票可能会错失投资机会,卖掉的股票很可能会跑赢市场,投资者可按每两周或每四周的频率调整投资组合中的股票,卖出负面推荐评级"减持/卖出"股票,降低投资亏损。     

Convergence of a continuous BGK model for conservation laws on the quarter plane

We consider a scalar conservation law in the quarter plan. This equation is approximated in a kinetic BGK model with infinite set of velocities. The convergence is established in the general BV framework, without special restrictions on the flux nor on the equilibrium problem's data.     

Green's functions for continuously supported plates

The Green's functions for an infinite elastic plate, attached respectively to a Pasternak or a Kerr base model, and subjected to a concentrated force, are obtained in terms of Bessel functions. It is shown, that for each base model, depending on the plate and base parameters, the solutions may be of different form. The method of images is then utilized to generate closed form solutions for the semi-infinite and quarter plates with simply supported boundaries. Paper also presents a generalization of Bessel functions of the Kelvin type and a discussion of their properties. They were needed for the solution of some of the equations under consideration.Research supported by National Science Foundation Grant MSM-8308919.