The deterministic grey dynamic model with convolution integral DGDMC(1, n)

Although the grey forecasting models have been successfully utilized in many fields and demonstrated promising results, literatures show their performance still could be improved. The grey prediction theory is methodology and it is necessary to constantly present new models or algorithm based on the theory to improve its performance, prediction accuracy especially. For this purpose, this paper proposes a new prediction model called the deterministic grey dynamic model with convolution integral, abbreviated as DGDMC(1, n). Improvements upon the existing grey prediction model GM(1, n) are made to a large extent and the messages for a system can be inserted sufficiently. The major improvements include determining the unbiased estimates of the system parameters by the deterministic convergence scheme, introducing the first derivative of the 1-AGO data of each associated series into the DGDMC(1, n) model to strengthen the indicative significance and evaluating the modelling 1-AGO data of the predicted series by the convolution integral. The indirect measurement of the tensile strength of a material for a higher temperature is adpoted for demonstration. The results show that the accuracy of indirect measurement is higher by the DGDMC(1, n) model than by the existing GM(1, n) model.     

Generalized GM (1, 1) model and its application in forecasting of fuel production

Grey theory is one approach that can be used to construct a model with limited samples to provide better forecasting advantage for short-term problems. Generally, the GM (1, 1) and Discrete GM (1, 1) models are two typical grey forecasting models in grey theory. However, there are two shortcomings in the above grey models respectively, i.e., the homogeneous-exponent simulative deviation in GM (1, 1) model, and the unequal conversion between the original and white equations in DGM (1, 1) model. In this paper, we firstly propose a novel Generalized GM (1, 1) model termed GGM (1, 1) model, based on GM (1, 1) and DGM (1, 1) models, to overcome the above shortcomings. Then, we detailedly study four important properties in this new grey model. Four estimative approaches of stepwise ratio in GGM (1, 1) model context is also covered. In the end, we simulate and forecast the fuel production in China during the period 2003–2010 using three GM (1, 1) models. The empirical results show that GGM (1, 1) model has higher simulative and predictive accuracy than GM (1, 1) and DGM (1, 1) models. This work contributes significantly to improve grey forecasting theory and proposes a optimized GM (1, 1) model.     

Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis of agricultural futures markets

We investigated geographically far but temporally correlated China’s and US agricultural futures markets. We found that there exists a power-law cross-correlation between them, and that multifractal features are significant in all the markets. It is very interesting that the geographically far markets show strong cross-correlations and share much of their multifractal structure. Furthermore, we found that for all the agricultural futures markets in our studies, the cross-correlation exponent is less than the averaged generalized Hurst exponents (GHE) when q < 0 and greater than the averaged GHE when q > 0.     

On single and double Soules matrices

Until now the concept of a Soules basis matrix of sign patternN consisted of an orthogonal matrix R∈R^n,n, generated in a certain way from a positive n-vector, which has the property that for any diagonal matrix Λ = diag(λ₁, … , λ_n), with λ₁ ? ? ? λ_n ? 0, the symmetric matrix A = RΛR^T has nonnegative entries only. In the present paper we introduce the notion of a pair of double Soules basis matrices of sign patternN which is a pair of matrices (P, Q), each in R^n,n, which are not necessarily orthogonal and which are generated in a certain way from two positive vectors, but such that PQ^T = I and such that for any of the aforementioned diagonal matrices Λ, the matrix A = PΛQ^T (also) has nonnegative entries only. We investigate the interesting properties which such matrices A have.As a preamble to the above investigation we show that the iterates, , generated in the course of the QR-algorithm when it is applied to A = RΛR^T, where R is a Soules basis matrix of sign pattern N, are again symmetric matrices generated by the Soules basis matrices R_k of sign pattern N which are themselves modified as the algorithm progresses.Our work here extends earlier works by Soules and Elsner et al.     

The impact of smooth W-grids in the numerical solution of singular perturbation two-point boundary value problems

This paper develops a semi-analytic technique for generating smooth nonuniform grids for the numerical solution of singularly perturbed two-point boundary value problems. It is based on the usual idea of mapping a uniform grid to the desired nonuniform grid. We introduce the W-grid, which depends on the perturbation parameter ? ? 1. For problems on [0, 1] with a boundary layer at one end point, the local mesh width h_i = x_i+1 − x_i, with 0 = x₀ < x₁ < ? < x_N = 1, is condensed at either 0 or 1. Two simple 2nd order finite element and finite difference methods are combined with the new mesh, and computational experiments demonstrate the advantages of the smooth W-grid compared to the well-known piecewise uniform Shishkin mesh. For small ?, neither the finite difference method nor the finite element method produces satisfactory results on the Shishkin mesh. By contrast, accuracy is vastly improved on the W-grid, which typically produces the nominal 2nd order behavior in L², for large as well as small values of N, and over a wide range of values of ?. We conclude that the smoothness of the mesh is of crucial importance to accuracy, efficiency and robustness.     

On the bounds for the norms of r-circulant matrices with the Fibonacci and Lucas numbers

In this paper, we have found upper and lower bounds for the spectral norms of r-circulant matrices in the forms A = C_r(F₀, F₁, …, F_n−1), B = C_r(L₀, L₁, …, L_n−1), and we have obtained some bounds for the spectral norms of Kronecker and Hadamard products of A and B matrices.     

A note on the perturbation of positive matrices by normal and unitary matrices

In a recent paper, Neumann and Sze considered for an n × n nonnegative matrix A, the minimization and maximization of ρ(A + S), the spectral radius of (A + S), as S ranges over all the doubly stochastic matrices. They showed that both extremal values are always attained at an n × n permutation matrix. As a permutation matrix is a particular case of a normal matrix whose spectral radius is 1, we consider here, for positive matrices A such that (A + N) is a nonnegative matrix, for all normal matrices N whose spectral radius is 1, the minimization and maximization problems of ρ(A + N) as N ranges over all such matrices. We show that the extremal values always occur at an n × n real unitary matrix. We compare our results with a less recent work of Han, Neumann, and Tastsomeros in which the maximum value of ρ(A + X) over all n × n real matrices X of Frobenius norm was sought.     

An extended replacement policy for a deteriorating system with multi-failure modes

In this paper, the maintenance problem for a deteriorating system with k + 1 failure modes, including an unrepairable failure (catastrophic failure) mode and k repairable failure (non-catastrophic failure) modes, is studied. Assume that the system after repair is not “as good as new” and its deterioration is stochastic. Under these assumptions, an extended replacement policy N is considered: the system will be replaced whenever the number of repairable failures reaches N or the unrepairable failure occurs, whichever occurs first. Our purpose is to determine an optimal extended policy N^∗ such that the average cost rate (i.e. the long-run average cost per unit time) of the system is minimized. The explicit expression of the average cost rate is derived, and the corresponding optimal extended policy N^∗ can be determined analytically or numerically. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate some theoretical results of the repair model proposed in this paper.     

基于DCC-GARCH模型的金属期货市场与外汇、货币市场的动态相关性研究

在本文中主要是把DCC-GARCH模型,引入到金属期货市场分别与外汇市场和货币市场之间的动态相关性领域进行研究。通过对LME铜分别与RMB/USD、USD/EU、JPY/USD三个汇率之间的动态相关性研究,研究结果表明:金属期货市场与外汇市场之间有一定的动态相关性,但是不是很强烈;通过对LME铜分别与RMB-USD、USD-EU、JPY-/USD三个利差变化率之间的动态相关性研究,结果表明:金属期货市场与货币市场之间的动态相关性并不明显。     

Optimal manufacturer’s replenishment policies in the EPQ model under two levels of trade credit policy

In 2007, Huang proposed the optimal retailer’s replenishment decisions in the EPQ model under two levels of trade credit policy, in which the supplier offers the retailer a permissible delay period M, and the retailer in turn provides its customer a permissible delay period N (with N < M). In this paper, we extend his EPQ model to complement the shortcoming of his model. In addition, we relax the dispensable assumptions of N < M and others. We then establish an appropriate EPQ model to the problem, and develop the proper theoretical results to obtain the optimal solution. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the proposed model and its optimal solution.