System availability in a shock model under preventive repair and phase‐type distributions

A device that can fail by shocks or ageing under policy N of maintenance is presented. The interarrival times between shocks follow phase‐type distributions depending on the number of cumulated shocks. The successive shocks deteriorate the system, and some of them can be fatal. After a prefixed number k of nonfatal shocks, the device is preventively repaired. After a fatal shock the device is correctively repaired. Repairs are as good as new, and follow phase‐type distributions. The system is governed by a Markov process whose infinitesimal generator, stationary probability vector, and availability are calculated, obtaining well‐structured expressions due to the use of phase‐type distributions. The availability is optimized in terms of the number k of preventive repairs. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two shock and wear systems under repair standing a finite number of shocks

A shock and wear system standing a finite number of shocks and subject to two types of repairs is considered. The failure of the system can be due to wear or to a fatal shock. Associated to these failures there are two repair types: normal and severe. Repairs are as good as new. The shocks arrive following a Markovian arrival process, and the lifetime of the system follows a continuous phase-type distribution. The repair times follow different continuous phase-type distributions, depending on the type of failure. Under these assumptions, two systems are studied, depending on the finite number of shocks that the system can stand before a fatal failure that can be random or fixed. In the first case, the number of shocks is governed by a discrete phase-type distribution. After a finite (random or fixed) number of non-fatal shocks the system is repaired (severe repair). The repair due to wear is a normal repair. For these systems, general Markov models are constructed and the following elements are studied: the stationary probability vector; the transient rate of occurrence of failures; the renewal process associated to the repairs, including the distribution of the period between replacements and the number of non-fatal shocks in this period. Special cases of the model with random number of shocks are presented. An application illustrating the numerical calculations is given. The systems are studied in such a way that several particular cases can be deduced from the general ones straightaway. We apply the matrix-analytic methods for studying these models showing their versatility.     

On generalized shock models for deteriorating systems

Standard assumptions in shock models are that failures of items are related either to the cumulative effect of shocks (cumulative models) or that they are caused by shocks that exceed a certain critical level (extreme shocks models). In this paper, we present useful generalizations of this setting to the case when an item is deteriorating itself, for example, when the boundary for the fatal shock magnitude is decreasing with time. Three stochastic failure models describing different impacts of shocks on items are considered. The cumulative effect of shocks is modeled in a way similar to the proportional hazards model. Explicit formulas for the corresponding survival functions are derived and several simple examples are considered. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Random Shock Model with Mixed Effect,Including Competing Soft and Sudden Failures,and Dependence

A system is considered, which is subject to external and possibly fatal shocks, with dependence between the fatality of a shock and the system age. Apart from these shocks, the system suffers from competing soft and sudden failures, where soft failures refer to the reaching of a given threshold for the degradation level, and sudden failures to accidental failures, characterized by a failure rate. A non-fatal shock increases both degradation level and failure rate of a random amount, with possible dependence between the two increments. The system reliability is calculated by four different methods. Conditions under which the system lifetime is New Better than Used are proposed. The influence of various parameters of the shocks environment on the system lifetime is studied.     

A reliability system under different types of shock governed by a Markovian arrival process and maintenance policy K

A reliability system subject to shocks producing damage and failure is considered. The source of shocks producing failures is governed by a Markovian arrival process. All the shocks produce deterioration and some of them failures, which can be repairable or non-repairable. Repair times are governed by a phase-type distribution. The number of deteriorating shocks that the system can stand is fixed. After a fatal failure the system is replaced by another identical one. For this model the availability, the reliability, and the rate of occurrence of the different types of failures are calculated. It is shown that this model extends other previously published in the literature.     

Nonstationary shock models

This paper extends results obtained by Esary, Marshall and Proschan [10]. Life distribution properties of a device subject to shocks governed by a nonhomogeneous Poisson process are related to corresponding properties of the probability of failing after experiencing a given number of shocks. Physically motivated models are analyzed in which shocks cause damage to a set of components, the damages accumulate additively, and when the accumulated damage exceeds a critical threshold (possibly random) for any of the components, the device fails. Bounds are obtained on the moments of the life length of the device.     

Reliability analysis for devices subject to competing failure processes based on chance theory

This paper studies the reliability for devices subject to independent competing failure processes of degradation and shocks in an uncertain random environment. The continuous degradation is governed by an uncertain process, and external shocks arrive according to an uncertain random renewal reward process, in which the inter-arrival times of shocks and the shock sizes are assumed to be random variables and uncertain variables, respectively. The device reliability is defined as the chance measure that the uncertain degradation signals do not exceed a soft failure threshold L, and the uncertain random shocks do not cause the device failure. The device reliability is obtained by employing chance theory under four different shock patterns. Finally, a case study on a gas insulated transmission line is carried out to show the implementation of the proposed model.     

Lifetime properties of a cumulative shock model with a cluster structure

This paper studies a generalized cumulative shock model with a cluster shock structure. The system considered is subject to two types of shocks, called primary shocks and secondary shocks, where each primary shock causes a series of secondary shocks. The lifetime behavior of such a system becomes more complicated than that of a classical model with only one class of shocks. Under a non-homogeneous Poisson process of primary shocks, we analyze the lifetime behavior of the system with light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributed secondary shocks. We show some important characteristics of lifetime of this type of system. Our model, as an extension of the classical shock models, has wide applications in maintenance engineering, operations management, and insurance risk assessment.     

Statistical theory for the stochastic Burgers equation in the inviscid limit

A statistical theory is developed for the stochastic Burgers equation in the inviscid limit. Master equations for the probability density functions of velocity, velocity difference, and velocity gradient are derived. No closure assumptions are made. Instead, closure is achieved through a dimension reduction process; namely, the unclosed terms are expressed in terms of statistical quantities for the singular structures of the velocity field, here the shocks. Master equations for the environment of the shocks are further expressed in terms of the statistics of singular structures on the shocks, namely, the points of shock generation and collisions. The scaling laws of the structure functions are derived through the analysis of the master equations. Rigorous bounds on the decay of the tail probabilities for the velocity gradient are obtained using realizability constraints. We also establish that the probability density function Q(ξ) of the velocity gradient decays as |ξ|^−7/2 as ξ → − ∞. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Availability of inspected systems subject to shocks – A matrix algorithmic approach

We examine the limiting average availability of a maintained system that deteriorates due to random shock process and as a response to its usage (wear out). System’s failures are not self-announcing, hence, failures must be detected via inspection. We consider randomly occurring shocks that arrive according to a Poisson process and cumulatively damage the system. Two models are considered: in Model 1 the shock and wear out processes are independent of the external environment and in Model 2, the shocks arrival rate, the shock magnitudes and the wear out rate are governed by a random environment which evolves as a Markov process. We obtain the system’s availability for both models.     

On a single discrete scale for preventive maintenance with two shock processes affecting a complex system

A new approach to optimal maintenance of systems (networks) is suggested. It is applied to systems subject to two external independent shock processes. A system ‘consists’ of two parts, and each shock process affects only its own part. A new notion of bivariate signature is suggested and used for obtaining survival characteristics of a system and further optimization of the preventive maintenance actions. The preventive maintenance optimization is considered in the univariate discrete scale that counts the overall numbers of shocks of both types. An example of a transportation network is considered. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the lifetime behavior of a discrete time shock model

In this article, we study a shock model in which the shocks occur according to a binomial process, i.e. the interarrival times between successive shocks follow a geometric distribution with mean 1/p$1/p$. According to the model, the system fails when the time between two consecutive shocks is less than a prespecified level. This is the discrete time version of the so-called δ$\delta$-shock model which has been previously studied for the continuous case. We obtain the probability mass function and probability generating function of the system’s lifetime. We also present an extension of the results to the case where the shock occurrences are dependent in a Markovian fashion.     

A replacement model for an additive damage model with restoration

A system existing in a random environment receives shocks at random points of time. Each shock causes a random amount of damage which accumulates over time. A breakdown can occur only upon the occurrence of a shock according to a known failure probability function. Upon failure the system is replaced by a new identical one with a given cost. When the system is replaced before failure, a smaller cost is incurred. Thus, there is an incentive to attempt to replace the system before failure. The damage process is controlled by means of a maintenance policy which causes the accumulated damage to decrease at a known restoration rate. We introduce sufficient conditions under which an optimal replacement policy which minimizes the total expected discounted cost is a control limit policy. The relationship between the undiscounted case and the discounted case is examined. Finally, an example is given illustrating computational procedures.     

Cost effective scheduling of imperfect inspections in systems with hidden failures and rescue possibility

Motivated by real-world critical applications such as aircraft, medical devices, and military systems, this paper models non-repairable systems subject to a delay-time failure process involving hidden and fatal failures in two stages during their missions. A hidden failure cannot cause the system to stop functioning while a fatal failure causes the entire system loss. The system undergoes scheduled inspections for detecting the hidden failure. In the case of a positive inspection result, the system main mission is aborted and a rescue operation is started to mitigate the risk of the entire system loss. The inspections are imperfect and may produce false positive and negative failures. We propose probabilistic models for evaluating performance metrics of the system considered, including mission success probability, system survival probability, expected number of inspections during the mission, and total expected losses. Based on the evaluation models, we formulate and solve an optimization problem of finding the optimal inspection schedule on a fixed mission time horizon to minimize the total expected loss. Examples are provided to demonstrate the proposed methodology and effects of key system parameters on system performance and optimization solutions.     

The Stability of Attached Shock Waves in Magnetogasdynamic Flow Past a Wedge

The question of the physical significance of the new phenomenaindicated by Cabannes' work on magnetogasdynamic flow past awedge is considered from the point of view of the stabilityof the shock waves. Analytical and heuristic reasons are givensuggesting that downstream-facing shocks are stable if the upstreamflow is supersonic and unstable if it is subsonic, while upstreamfacing shocks are always to be considered unstable.     

An extended optimal replacement model of systems subject to shocks

A system is subject to shocks that arrive according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process. As shocks occur a system has two types of failures: type I failure (minor failure) is rectified by a minimal repair, whereas type II failure (catastrophic failure) is removed by replacement. The probability of a type II failure is permitted to depend on the number of shocks since the last replacement. This paper proposes a generalized replacement policy where a system is replaced at the nth type I failure or first type II failure or at age T, whichever occurs first. The cost of the minimal repair of the system at age t depends on the random part C(t) and deterministic paper c(t). The expected cost rate is obtained. The optimal n¹ and optimal T¹ which would minimize the cost rate are derived and discussed. Various special cases are considered and detailed.     

On a New Shot Noise Process and the Induced Survival Model

Traditionally, in applications, the shot noise processes have been studied under the assumption that the underlying arrival point process (shock process) is the homogeneous (or nonhomogeneous) Poisson process. However, most of the real life shock processes do not possess the independent increments property and the Poisson assumption is made just for simplicity. Recently, in the literature, a new point process, the generalized Polya process (GPP), has been proposed and characterized. The GPP is defined via the stochastic intensity that depends on the number of events in the previous interval and, therefore, does not possess the independent increments property. In this paper, we consider the GPP as an underlying shock process for the shot noise process. The corresponding survival model is considered and the survival probability and its failure rate are derived and thoroughly analyzed. Furthermore, a new concept, the history-dependent residual life time, is defined and discussed.     

Mean residual life and increasing convex comparison of shock models

Two devices are subjected to shocks arriving according to a general counting process. Let M₁ and M₂ be the random number of shocks that cause the failure of the first and the second device, respectively. We find conditions on the counting process such that the mean residual life ordering, the increasing convex ordering and the expectation ordering between M₁ and M₂ are preserved in the random lifetimes of the two devices.     

Formation and construction of shock for p -system

The paper concerns the formation and construction of shocks. The process of transform from a smooth solution to a shock is precisely described. Meanwhile, the singularity structure and estimates of solutions near the starting point of the shock are also obtained