信息不对称时基于过度自信代理人的工资契约研究

非对称信息条件下建立了具有过度自信代理人的委托代理模型.基于模型讨论了代理人过度自信行为对其自身努力水平及委托人利润的影响,得出:与对称信息情形相比,信息不对称条件下,代理人的努力程度更低,委托人利润也会减少.代理人的过度自信特征能降低信息不对称对委托人的不利影响,因而后者更愿意选择过度自信程度高的代理人合作.     

分权竞争、协同意愿与城市群建设:考虑公平偏好的委托代理解释

互惠合作机制缺失和信息不对称影响了地方政府的区域协调投入,不利于城市群建设和经济高质量发展。在委托代理模型中引入公平偏好的基础上,重点讨论协作意愿和信息条件对努力水平的影响。发现公平偏好和信息条件都对代理人的努力水平产生影响,且代理人之间的信息分布更重要。地方政府努力水平依赖于相邻城市的协同意愿,满足公平偏好中的“互惠”行为;且信息对称情形下的努力水平均高于不对称情形。改善信息分布和引导公平偏好,有利于提高地方政府的区域协同投入而改善整体产出水平。城市群建设和区域协调发展需要健全的协调机制,以增强不同区域地方政府的互信水平和互惠机制,降低、消除区域间信息不对称情形,通过互惠性合作和投入提升区域经济效率、促进经济高质量发展。     

基于有信息委托人视角的创意转化契约设计研究

为了形式化一个有信息的委托人在创意的转化过程中,与代理人缔约时所面临的信号显示问题,以创意的特性为基础,通过建立Stackelberg信号博弈模型,证明了创意转化契约分离均衡的存在性,并分析了知识产权保护强度和产业成熟度对均衡契约的影响。研究还发现,当同时存在委托人的逆向选择和代理人的道德风险时,分离均衡契约使得代理人的努力水平会产生向下的扭曲。     

保留效用类型依存的委托代理模型

在代理人的保留效用是类型依存的情况下,代理人的租金受外部机会成本的影响.研究表明,代理人努力负效用与成本类型的单调关系,决定了最优契约安排.相比较于非类型依存的情况,代理人都可能得到租金.高类型的租金总大于0,其租金可能仅源于保留效用,也可能受保留效用与努力负效用的综合影响.为激励其努力工作,委托人必须给予该类型代理人更高的支付;另一方面,低类型代理人的努力成本低和保留效用高,总得到比高类型更多的租金.     

非对称信息下退耕还林生态补偿契约设计研究

基于农户行为信息是否对称的视角,对退耕还林生态补偿契约设计及效率进行研究.结果显示,当农户行为信息对称时,不管造林产量高低,基层地方政府支付的生态补偿只能达到农户的保留效用.当农户行为信息不对称时,如果造林产量高,则农户获得超过保留效用的生态补偿;如果如果造林产量低,则农户获得低于保留效用的生态补偿.并且,基层地方政府需要支付比对称信息下更多的成本才能激励农户付出正努力水平.当农户付出正努力水平时,获得高造林产量的概率越高,则基层地方政府支付的生态补偿越接近对称信息下的补偿额度;当农户付出零努力水平时,获得高造林产量的概率越高,则基层地方政府支付的生态补偿越偏离对称信息下的补偿额度.     

不对称信息下制造商契约设计

考虑由制造商和销售人员组成的供应链,其中市场需求依赖于制造商的货物质量,销售人员的努力以及市场的随机因素,建立由制造商起主导作用的数学模型.制造商通过制定产品质量,工资契约,销售价格来最大化自己的利润.销售人员针对不同质量的货物决定相应努力水平以最大化自己的利润.关于销售人员的努力水平在对称信息及不对称信息情形下,制造商运用激励相容原理设计最优契约,得到销售价格,产品质量及销售提成之间的关系.结果表明,信息对称情形下,销售人员的努力水平与产品的质量成正比.信息不对称情形下,类型为H(很努力)的销售人员的固定收入随类型为L(一般努力)的销售人员的销售提成增大而增加.     

公平偏好信息非对称下的信号传递博弈模型

采用信号传递模型来研究公平偏好信息非对称下零售商的甄选与合作问题.首先,对零售商公平偏好信息对称和非对称下供应商收益进行比较,得出零售商公平偏好信息非对称会引起逆向选择问题并损坏供应商收益.然后,分别设计了不同类型零售商信号传递成本相同、不同情况下的信号传递博弈模型来揭示零售商的真实公平偏好类型.最后,通过模型推理发现只有当不同类型零售商的信号传递成本不同时,信号传递模型才能起到揭示零售商类型的作用,从而解决公平偏好信息非对称引起的逆向选择问题.     

漂移和波动控制下的委托投资组合管理问题

考虑委托人和代理人都是风险厌恶的,代理人可私下选择或控制输出现金流的漂移和波动,现金流的整个波动由外生因素和代理人的内生控制因素组成,委托人只能观察到现金流过程,然后采用一阶方法,讨论连续时间框架下的委托投资组合管理问题.研究发现:最优波动控制要求代理人根据外生因子来进行调整,最优报酬函数的形式由市场决定的保留效用,努力成本,激励代理人工作的风险补偿以及利用风险补偿支付给代理人的的风险溢价四部分构成.最后对模型进行实例分析,得到最优努力是一个常数,并得到最优合约的显示解.     

纵向研发合作中的敲竹杠问题与合同设计研究

考虑纵向研发合作中合同的不完全性,分析了里程碑支付合同中开发单位的敲竹杠行为,建立了防敲竹杠问题的投资激励模型,给出了不同信息结构下研究单位的投资决策和开发单位的合同设计。研究结果表明:均衡解存在的情况下,信息对称时,研究单位获得的预付款和里程碑支付分别为零和其外部选择收益;信息不对称时,开发单位为研究单位提供了一个高低两种质量类型下预付款和里程碑支付相互平衡的信息甄别合同。比较分析发现:信息不对称时研究单位的投资水平更高,且研究单位拥有信息优势时的投资激励作用随着创新的关系专用性程度和高质量创新出现的概率递减,但随着两种类型创新的质量的比值递增。     

混合情形下的信息系统有效性——一个比较标准与数值算例

本文关注于委托代理问题中信息系统的选择问题,我们证明了在逆向选择和道德风险相对独立的混合情形下,关于代理人类型信息的累积分布函数满足一阶随机占优(FSD)的选择标准,关于代理人行为信息的累积分布函数满足二阶随机占优(SSD)的选择标准。最后,通过一个数值算例对上述选择标准的含义进行直观解释。     

CREATION OF MARINE RESERVES AND INCENTIVES FOR BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Abstract Despite a number of benefits, marine reserves provide neither incentives for fishermen to protect biodiversity nor compensation for financial loss due to the designation of the reserves. To obtain fishermen's support for marine reserves, some politicians have suggested that managers of new marine reserves should consider subsidizing or compensating those fishermen affected by the new operations. The objective of this paper is to apply principal–agent theory, which is still infrequently applied to fisheries, to define the optimal reserve area, fishing effort, and transfer payments in the context of symmetric and asymmetric information between managers and fishermen. The expected optimal reserve size under asymmetric information is smaller than that under symmetric information. Fishing efforts encouraged with a transfer payment are always less compared to those without payment. This reflects the fact that as the manager induces the fishermen to participate in the conservation program, the fishermen will take into account their effects on fish stock by decreasing their effort. Examples are also supplied to demonstrate these concepts.     

Concave distortion risk minimizing reinsurance design under adverse selection

This article makes use of the well-known Principal–Agent (multidimensional screening) model commonly used in economics to analyze a monopolistic reinsurance market in the presence of adverse selection, where the risk preference of each insurer is guided by its concave distortion risk measure of the terminal wealth position; while the reinsurer, under information asymmetry, aims to maximize its expected profit by designing an optimal policy provision (menu) of “shirt-fit” stop-loss reinsurance contracts for every insurer of either type of low or high risk. In particular, the most representative case of Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR) is further explored in detail so as to unveil the underlying insight from economics perspective.     

不同信息条件下创新联盟合作伙伴的选择——基于知识获取的研究视角

以知识获取为研究视角,应用动态博弈理论,研究了不同信息条件下创新联盟合作伙伴选择的问题.通过研究发现,在信息对称条件下,知识共享成本越低或者知识获取能力越高,越容易实现帕累托改进;在信息非对称条件下,企业的合作成本、知识获取能力影响了分离均衡区间的范围,并进而影响帕累托效率与逆向选择风险的大小.     

保险中遏制投保人逆向选择的博弈策略分析

以投保人的风险类型难于鉴别的逆向选择问题为研究对象,建立了投保人与保险公司的双人非零和博弈模型,并求解得出了该博弈的混合策略纳什均衡点,从而得出重罚有利于遏制投保人的逆向选择以及使保险公司的期望利润为零的保险定价公式.     

Principal–agent problem for returns handling in a reverse supply chain with one manufacturer and two competing dealers

Focusing on the principal–agent problem in handling new-products returned by customers in a reverse supply chain with one manufacturer and two competing dealers, we investigate how a manufacturer motivates her dealers to exert their efforts to handle and sell the returned new-products using mathematical modelling. By taking into consideration the dealers’ individual rationalities, we design optimal incentive contracts under both symmetric and asymmetric information and obtain the following insights. In the symmetric information situation, dealers’ effort levels are identical to those maximising the expected overall profit of the supply chain. In the asymmetric information situation, however, the dealers’ effort levels are lower than the supply chain optimum. Further, in the case of intensifying competition between the dealers, their effort levels increase, while each dealer’ revenue share received from the manufacturer decreases and the risk, incentive and total agency costs of the entire supply chain tend to diminish. The revenue share is inversely correlated with return uncertainties. When we introduce another random environmental factor affecting returns into the incentive contract, this revenue share increases with a rise in dealers’ effort levels, while the above-mentioned costs of the entire system decline and this improves the supply chain system coordination. The incorporation of fairness into the principal–agent model promotes a further increase in the dealers’ effort levels, which is proved using the fixed-point theorem. Finally, we provide an example to demonstrate the main results.     

Controlling for supplier switching in the presence of real options and asymmetric information

Applying a real option approach, this paper examines how asymmetric information alters key variables of a firm’s supplier switching process, such as the timing of contracting (hurried versus delayed contracting), transfer payments, set-up, switching, and abandonment decisions. In a symmetric information setting, delayed contracting is unambiguously beneficial. Abandoning the once established relation with the entrant supplier is never an issue. In contrast, under asymmetric information hurried contracting with potentially abandoning the relation can be beneficial. Consistent with adverse selection models, we find that under delayed contracting, in equilibrium, the firm switches less frequently to the entrant supplier (switching inertia). Surprisingly, we also find that under hurried contracting the firm switches more frequently to the entrant supplier (switching acceleration) and may abandon the relation. Finally, we study how these key variables of the supplier switching process change when also the incumbent supplier has private information (two-sided asymmetric information case).     

保险公司和再保险公司之间的停止损失再保险策略选择博弈

本文在扩散逼近风险模型下考虑保险公司和再保险公司之间的停止损失再保险策略选择博弈问题.假设保险公司和再保险公司都以期望终端盈余效用增加作为购买停止损失再保险和接受承保的条件.在保险公司和再保险公司都具有指数效用函数条件下,运用动态规划原理,通过求解其对应的Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman方程,得到了三种博弈情形下保险公司和再保险公司之间的停止损失再保险策略和值函数的显示解,以及再保险合约能够成交时再保费满足的条件.结果显示,在适当的条件下,保险公司和再保险公司之间的停止再保险合约是可以成交的.最后,通过灵敏性分析给出了最优停止损失再保险策略和再保费,以及效用损益与模型主要参数之间的关系,并给出相应的经济分析.     

风险企业融资行为的逆向选择博弈模型研究

利用博弈论理论建立了风险企业融资行为的逆向选择信号传递博弈模型,分完全信息和不完全信息两种情况,对影响风险投资家努力水平的因素进行了分析,得出产权结构不合理、控制权分配失衡和风险企业家的寻租行为是造成风险投资家努力水平不高的主要原因,并给出了相应的对策建议.     

The coordinating contracts for a fuzzy supply chain with effort and price dependent demand

This paper investigates the coordination of a two-echelon supply chain with fuzzy demand that is dependent on both retail price and sales effort. In contrast with the centralized and decentralized decision models, two coordinating models based on symmetric information and asymmetric information about retailer’s scale parameter are developed by game theory, and the corresponding analytical solutions are obtained. Theoretical analysis and numerical examples yield the maximal supply chain profits in two coordination situations are equal to that in the centralized situation and greater than that in the decentralized situation. Furthermore, under asymmetric information contract, the maximal expected profit obtained by the low-scale-level retailer is higher than that under symmetric information contract.     

Unit-linked life insurance policies: Optimal hedging in partially observable market models

In this paper we investigate the hedging problem of a unit-linked life insurance contract via the local risk-minimization approach, when the insurer has a restricted information on the market. In particular, we consider an endowment insurance contract, that is a combination of a term insurance policy and a pure endowment, whose final value depends on the trend of a stock market where the premia the policyholder pays are invested. To allow for mutual dependence between the financial and the insurance markets, we use the progressive enlargement of filtration approach. We assume that the stock price process dynamics depends on an exogenous unobservable stochastic factor that also influences the mortality rate of the policyholder. We characterize the optimal hedging strategy in terms of the integrand in the Galtchouk–Kunita–Watanabe decomposition of the insurance claim with respect to the minimal martingale measure and the available information flow. We provide an explicit formula by means of predictable projection of the corresponding hedging strategy under full information with respect to the natural filtration of the risky asset price and the minimal martingale measure. Finally, we discuss applications in a Markovian setting via filtering.