“三局两胜、五局三胜”制公平吗？

在体育比赛中 ,一局定胜负 ,虽然比赛双方获胜的概率均为二分之一 ,但是由于实验的次数太少 ,偶然因素较多 ,不能较好地展示双方实力 ,故这种赛制难以使参赛者信服 ,不能展现胜者风范 .而比赛组织者普遍采用的“三局两胜”或“五局三胜”制决定胜负的方法 ,既令参赛选手满意 ,又被观众所接受 .那么 ,这种比赛制度公平吗 ?下面用概率的观点和知识加以阐述 .由于一场比赛前两位选手的水平或胜率是一个不可测的未知数 ,因此 ,赛事组织者理应撇开比赛中甲、乙双方的原有水平 ,而认为在一次比赛中甲、乙双方获胜的概率各为 ｐ=12 ,即在一局比赛中…     

"三局两胜、五局三胜"制公平吗?

在体育比赛中 ,一局定胜负 ,虽然比赛双方获胜的概率均为二分之一 ,但是由于实验的次数太少 ,偶然因素较多 ,不能较好地展示双方实力 ,故这种赛制难以使参赛者信服 ,不能展现胜者风范 .而比赛组织者普遍采用的“三局两胜”或“五局三胜”制决定胜负的方法 ,既令参赛选手满意 ,又被观众所接受 .那么 ,这种比赛制度公平吗 ?下面用概率的观点和知识加以阐述 :由于一场比赛前两位选手的水平或胜率是一个不可测的未知数 ,因此 ,赛事组织者理应撇开比赛中甲、乙双方的原有水平 ,而认为在一次比赛中甲、乙双方获胜的概率各为 p =12 ,即在一局比赛中…     

重复性赛制中的数学问题

1引言在体育比赛中,如果以一局定胜负,由于随机因素的影响,不能较好地展示双方实力,也不能展现胜者风范,故这种赛制难以使观众和参赛者信服.因此,为了体现公平竞争的精神,比赛就应该让参赛者有多次表现的机会,这一精神体现在赛制中,即重复性赛制.例如球类比赛中常常采用“三局两胜”或“五局三胜”制来决定胜负.那么,这种赛制公平吗?对在一局比赛中获胜概率不同的选手,“三局两胜”制与“五局三胜”制有何差异呢?一般地,“2n-1局n胜”制公平吗?不同的n,对于同一个选手有何差异呢?2“三局两胜”制和“五局三胜”制问题甲、乙两人参加比赛,设p…     

概率论在体育竞赛中的一种应用──试论擂台赛的胜负与队员出场顺序无关

体育竞赛中的擂台赛是一种传统的比赛方式。一般规则是：比赛双方事前提出本队参赛队员名单并排好顺序，首局比赛在两队１号选手之间进行，胜者设擂，败者淘汰，由败队的下一号选手攻擂，依此反复。一场擂台赛进行到某一方队员全被淘汰为止。本文应用概率论的知识，证明擂如赛的胜负与双方队员的出场顺序无关。     

“五打三胜”与Wald方程

众所周知,在很多记分的体育比赛中均采取“五打三胜”的规则.有时也采用“三打二胜”或“九打五胜”,如乒乓球团体赛等.为此本文先讨论在“五打三胜”规则下比赛双方获胜的概率,然后推广到一般的比赛模型“2n+1打 n+1胜”的情况,求出比赛所需的平均时间.从而得到一个制定比赛规则和实际计算比赛时间的方法.所谓“五打三胜”是指参与比赛的双方(设为 A,B),以先胜三局的一方为优胜.这一比赛至多打满五局,而“2n+1打 n+1胜”至多打满2n+1局,以先胜 n+1局者为优胜.设在一局中 A 胜的概率为 p,B 胜为 q(这里 p+q=1,p>0,q>0).若 p>q则理解为 A 方实力强.还假定各局比赛均相互独立.再设 A 优胜的概率为 P,B 优胜的概率为 Q,决定胜负所需比赛的局数为 N.为求 P,Q,先考虑“五打三胜”的规则.这时     

渡河登岸点的最佳选择

1　问题的提出在体育比赛中 ,有一种“铁人”项目的比赛 ,运动员通过跑步、划船、骑自行车等项目的比赛 ,以累计成绩决定胜负 .在这类比赛中常遇到如下情况 :运动员从Ａ地出发跑步到河岸渡口Ｂ处 ,然后划船到河对岸Ｐ处 ,上岸后沿河岸骑自行车到达河岸边的终点Ｃ处 (如图 1所示 ) .如果某两名运动员的跑步、划船、骑自行车的速度均相同 ,那么他们如何选择登岸点Ｐ的位置就成为取胜的关键 ,下面我们对这一问题通过构建数学模型加以探讨 .2　问题的分析与建模图 1由于这两名运动员的各项运动速度均相同 ,所以从Ａ点到Ｂ点所用时间也应相同 ,故…     

正规战争的随机微分方程模型

分析了战争中双方战斗人数的不确定性因素,论述了战争中战斗人数是一个随机过程,从而建立了正规战的随机微分方程模型.根据Ito微积分公式,导出了这个随机微分方程的It解.计算了战斗人数这一随机过程的期望,给出了依据所建立的随机微分方程模型预测战争胜负的判据.最后以硫磺岛战争为例,给出了美、日双方胜负的可能性的分析和数据模拟计算.     

一个游戏栏目中的概率问题

中央电视台第二频道有一个游戏栏目叫“购物街”,其中一个环节是若干人通过转一个“圆盘”决定胜负．把一个直径大约2米的大圆盘等分为20份,在每一份上分别标有5,10,15,……,95,100等分数（每个分数都是5的倍数）,如图．     

在新旧教材对比中设计教学——由两道引例的比对分析说起

近期,拿到了人教版义务教育七年级下册数学教科书.笔者将其与上一版教材进行了细致地比对,发现了很多变化.抛开章节顺序调整、例题练习的替换这些大的变动不谈,一些细微的变化隐藏在教材的行文之中,这些看似不经意的调整直接影响教师的教学进程,如果不进行对应的变化,可能就无法体现出教材编写者的良苦用心.现呈现其中一道引例进行对比分析,希望能够给你的教学带来启示.一、两道引例引例1篮球联赛中,每场比赛都要分出胜负,每队     

“一一对应”在计数中的应用

我们先来看一个例子： 100个人进行淘汰赛（指每场比赛淘汰一个人），问进行多少场比赛能产生一名冠军． 解 第1轮要进行50场比赛，留下50名选手； 第2轮要进行25场比赛，留下25名选手；     

Gambler’s ruin and winning a series by <Emphasis Type="Italic">m</Emphasis> games

Two teams play a series of games until one team accumulates m more wins than the other. These series are fairly common in some sports provided that the competition has already extended beyond some number of games. We generalize these schemes to allow ties in the single games. Different approaches offer different advantages in calculating the winning probabilities and the distribution of the duration N, including difference equations, conditioning, explicit and implicit path counting, generating functions and a martingale-based derivation of the probability and moment generating functions of N. The main result of the paper is the determination of the exact distribution of N for a series of fair games without ties as a sum of independent geometrically distributed random variables and its approximation.     

The existence of serial correlation and its effect on the format of a championship playoff series

The specific home/away sequencing of games has been a point of contention in the championship series of professional sports leagues. This research analyses data from the National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals in developing a logistic-regression model to predict the outcome of games that takes into consideration several factors, including home-court advantage and game-to-game momentum. It is found that negative serial correlation exists such that the team that wins one game is more likely to lose the next game of the series. This model is then used to predict the probability of each team winning each of the games within the series, and these probabilities are combined to evaluate alternative playoff formats. It is found that different formats are appropriate depending on the nature of momentum, and that the format used by the NBA may minimize travel requirements, but other formats may perform better in extending the length of the series.     

On the use of binary decision diagrams for solving problems on simple games

Simple games are yes/no cooperative games which arise in many practical applications. Recently, we have used reduced ordered binary decision diagrams and quasi-reduced ordered binary decision diagrams (abbreviated as Robdds and Qobdds, respectively) for the representation of simple games and for the computation of some power indices. In the present paper, we continue this work. We show how further important computational problems on simple games can be solved using Qobdds, viz. the identification of some key players, the computation of the desirability relation on individuals, the test whether a simple game is proper and strong, respectively, and the computation of Qobdd-representations for the sets of all minimal winning coalitions, all shift-minimal winning coalitions and all blocking coalitions, respectively. Applications of these solutions include the computation of recent power indices based on shift-minimal winning coalitions and the test for linear separability of a directed simple game.     

Some undecidable determined games

Computing machines using algorithms play games and even learn to play games. However, the inherent finiteness properties of algorithms impose limitations on the game playing abilities of machines. M. Rabin illustrated this limitation in 1957 by constructing a two-person win-lose game with decidable rules but no computable winning strategies. Rabin's game was of the type where two players take turns choosing integers to satisfy some decidable but very complicated winning condition. In the present paper we obtain similar theorems of this type but the winning conditions are extremely simple relations (polynomial equations). Specific examples are given.     

Enumeration by kernel positions for strongly Bernoulli type truncation games on words

We find the winning strategy for a class of truncation games played on words. As a consequence of the present author's recent results on some of these games we obtain new formulas for Bernoulli numbers and polynomials of the second kind and a new combinatorial model for the number of connected permutations of given rank. For connected permutations, the decomposition used to find the winning strategy is shown to be bijectively equivalent to King's decomposition, used to recursively generate a transposition Gray code of the connected permutations.     

Tarski's Fixpoint Lemma and combinatorial games

Using Tarski's Fixpoint Lemma for order preserving maps of a complete lattice into itself, a new, lattice theoretic proof is given for the existence of persistent strategies for combinatorial games as well as for games with a topological tolerance and games on lattices. Further, the existence of winning strategies is obtained for games on superalgebraic lattices, which includes the case of ordinary combinatorial games. Finally, a basic representation theorem is presented for those lattices.     

Analyzing games by Boolean matrix iteration

Finite win-draw-lose games with perfect information are studied, using a Boolean formulation with the intention of computational realization. The interdependence of the sets of winning strategies is expressed by means of Boolean matrix equations. Their solutions which describe the winning positions can be obtained by matrix iteration. In the case of last-player-winning games this method shows the existence of two kernels of a bipartite graph which are distinguished in the sense that they bound all other possible kernels. For some chess endings with three and four men all positions are completely analyzed.     

Size direction games over the real line. II

Variants of two basic infinite games of perfect information are studied. A notion of continuous strategy for the playerS (Size) is shown to be related to a notion of convergence norm for sequences of reals. With each such norm, a variant of each of the basic games is associated in which the size player has to see that each play obeys the norm. Restriction to choose only rational numbers is also imposed onS. Some games are completely solved, and in this caseS has a winning strategy iff his set includes a perfect subset, andD has a winning strategy iffS's set is at most denumerable. Some other games, in whichS has to choose only rationals and obey a norm, induce a hierarchy structure on the class of nowhere dense perfect sets, that is embedded cofinally in the lattice of infinite sequences of integers modulo finite differences.     

Lattice games without rational strategies

We show that the lattice games of Guo and Miller support universal computation, disproving their conjecture that all lattice games have rational strategies. We also state an explicit counterexample to that conjecture: a three dimensional lattice game whose set of winning positions does not have a rational generating function.     

A mathematical analysis of badminton scoring systems

The International Badminton Federation recently introduced rule changes to make the game faster and more entertaining, by influencing how players score points and win games. We assess the fairness of both systems by applying combinatorics, probability theory and simulation to extrapolate known probabilities of winning individual rallies into probabilities of winning games and matches. We also measure how effective the rule changes are by comparing the numbers of rallies per game and the scoring patterns within each game, using data from the 2006 Commonwealth Games to demonstrate our results. We then develop subjective Bayesian methods for specifying the probabilities of winning. Finally, we describe how to propagate this information with observed data to determine posterior predictive distributions that enable us to predict match outcomes before and during play.