基于招投标博弈报价策略分析

运用博弈论的理论和方法分析在招投标报价决策过程,对不完全信息下投标工程投标报价、竞标过程来确定自身的动态评判标准,采用概率模型的投标报价,并对这种博弈局势进行了定量剖析,给出招投标决策满意报价的解析结果.     

风险决策方法在工程投标报价中的应用

在竞争性招标中 ,投标报价决策对于投标的成败和工程承包的盈亏起着决定性作用 .阐述了选择投标项目和确定工程报价的决策理论与方法 .在讨论投标报价理论依据的基础上 ,结合工程案例 ,应用贝叶斯法和期望值法等进行风险决策分析 .可以帮助施工企业迅速合理地做出投标与报价决策 .     

土木工程投标报价模型研究

本文主要研究单一不可分土木工程的n人投标报价模型,报价高低不是是否中标的唯一决定性因素,施工方案和工程报价为赢得工程施工合同共同发挥组合效应,并且在一定条件下,通过工程竞标,中标价会趋于Nash平衡。     

不平衡报价跨期选择的多因素交互作用研究

报价人的跨期选择心理特征将直接影响不平衡报价策略,从而影响工程结算额度与经营效益。为揭示不平衡报价决策者的跨期选择心理机制,针对不平衡报价策略制定过程中出现的跨期选择心理效应问题,基于跨期结算组合策略的最大效用原则,并假设报价决策者为有限理性人,引入时间尺度、时间框架、理性水平3个变量,采用23(3因素2水平)设计,通过发放调查问卷方式,对跨期选择的多因素交互作用进行研究。研究结果表明,时间尺度、理性水平及时间框架主效应显著;理性水平与时间框架、理性水平与时间尺度、理性水平与时间框架和时间尺度的交互作用显著。在日期框架中,时间尺度较小时的报价均高于时间尺度较大时的报价;在延迟天数时间框架中,高理性水平报价人在时间尺度较小时的报价低于时间尺度较大时的报价,而低理性水平报价人则相反。研究结果对于增强不平衡报价决策效率、实现理性化决策具有重要的指导意义。     

基于Fuzzy-AHP的国际工程报价及模型应用

国际工程招投标是一种比较成熟、高级和规范化的国际贸易方式.为了在决定投标成功的各项关键因素上发挥出比竞争对手更加强大的优势,提出了利用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法相结合的报价决策模型.利用模型,在考虑到投标项目特有的影响因素前提下,选取合理的评价等级,可以模拟出具体项目的最优报价水平,为决策者做出最优报价决策、提高投标报价的成功率提供定量的辅助工具.     

基于模糊相似比较的模具报价方法的研究

为克服模具报价工作对报价人员经验的依赖性,简化报价操作,在分析了报价系统的要求和传统的模具报价进程的基础上,提出了利用模糊数学来提取模具报价领域中专家的经验,模拟专家行为,根据预测技术理论,得出模具价格的模糊相似比较法构想.在此基础上,推导其公式.以冲裁模为研究对象,阐述了工件特征集合构成、模糊相似关系和权值、贴近度计算等关键问题.从理论上为模具报价这一实际问题的解决提供了基本原则和方法.     

非合作n人投标报价服从N(μ,σ2)分布时局中人Ⅰ投标报价策略的研究

推导了矩阵对策模型,对非合作n人投标报价的分布进行x2检验.当非合作n人投标报价服从N(μ,σ2)分布时,根据参数区间公式,估计非合作n人有效报价平均数的范围,局中人Ⅰ最佳报价可根据矩阵对策模型来确定.该方法确定的报价与最佳标底的误差能控制在较小的范围内,适用于招标中合成标底的评标办法,对确定报价具有一定的实用价值.     

不完全信息四人帮模型的建设工程竞标合作均衡分析

建设工程投标报价决策中引入博弈论的精髓在于博弈中的一个理智决策者必须以考虑其他参与者的反应为基础来确定自身最理智的投标报价方案.应用信息不完全重复博弈的KMRW"四人帮"声誉模型原理,通过设定两方竞标者的非理智概率q,建立建设工程投标报价中两方投标者竞标的重复博弈模型,并对模型的精炼贝叶斯均衡进行求解及分析,得出两投标者在有限次重复博弈中的竞争合作规律,为企业竞标把握竞争合作规律提供理论参考.     

不确定环境下的投标方报价模型研究

在传统投标报价模型的基础上引入风险因子,提出报价要在收益与风险之间进行权衡.放宽了所有投标方的最高成本与最低成本是相同的这一前提假设,并借助Mathematica 5.0推导出投标方的报价模型.最后利用仿真对上述关系进行了分析.     

完全信息下发电机组间竞价上网的非合作博弈行为分析

本文利用博弈论方法对电力市场中 ,电力总需求缺乏弹性时各发电机组间非合作关系下竞价上网的报价行为进行了分析、研究 .并通过多目标规划方法 ,求出了纳什均衡的近似解 .该解可以指导机组制定竞价上网的报价曲线 ,避免机组盲目报价 .     

An efficient solution approach for real-world driver scheduling problems in urban bus transportation

The driver scheduling problem in public transportation is defined in the following way. There is a set of operational tasks, and the goal is to define the sequence of these tasks as shifts in such a way that every task must be assigned to a shift without overlapping. In real-world situations several additional constraints need to be considered, which makes large practical problems challenging to be solved efficiently. In practice it is also an important request with respect to a public transportation scheduling system to offer several versions of quasi-optimal solutions. In this paper we present an efficient driver scheduling solution methodology which is flexible in the above sense.     

ON THE WELL-POSEDNESS OF WEAK SOLUTIONS

This is to comment on the well-posedness of weak solutions for the initial value problem for partial differential equations. In recent decades, and particularly in recent years, there have been substantial progresses on construction by convex integration for the study of non-uniqueness of solutions for incompressible Euler equations, and even for compressible Euler equations. This prompts the question of whether it is possible to give a sense of well-posedness, which is narrower than the canonical Hadamard sense, so that the evolutionary equations are well-posed. We give a brief and partial review of the related results and offer some thoughts on this fundamental topic.     

“No! He starts walking backwards!”: interpreting motion graphs and the question of space, place and distance

This article deals with the interpretation of motion Cartesian graphs by Grade 8 students. Drawing on a sociocultural theoretical framework, it pays attention to the discursive and semiotic process through which the students attempt to make sense of graphs. The students’ interpretative processes are investigated through the theoretical construct of knowledge objectification and the configuration of mathematical signs, gestures, and words they resort to in order to achieve higher levels of conceptualization. Fine-grained video and discourse analyses offer an overview of the manner in which the students’ interpretations evolve into more condensed versions through the effect of what is called in the article “semiotic contractions” and “iconic orchestrations.”     

Relativization of dynamical properties

In the past twenty years,great achievements have been made by many researchers in the studies of chaotic behavior and local entropy theory of dynamical systems.Most of the results have been generalized to the relative case in the sense of a given factor map.In this survey we offer an overview of these developments.     

Low numeracy and dyscalculia: identification and intervention

One important factor in the failure to learn arithmetic in the normal way is an endogenous core deficit in the sense of number. This has been associated with low numeracy in general (e.g. Halberda et al. in Nature 455:665–668, 2008) and with dyscalculia more specifically (e.g. Landerl et al. in Cognition 93:99–125, 2004). Here, we describe straightforward ways of identifying this deficit, and offer some new ways of strengthening the sense of number using learning technologies.     

Prospective teachers anticipate challenges fostering the mathematical practice of making sense

Problem solving has long been a priority in mathematics education, and the first Common Core mathematical practice (SMP1) focuses on this priority through the language of “Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.” We present findings from a survey about how prospective elementary teachers' (PTs) make sense of potential difficulties with fostering SMP1. Findings suggested that PTs' common anticipated difficulties relate to planning a solution pathway and self monitoring whether the solution makes sense. Moreover, a third of PTs disclosed that their anticipated difficulties are linked to their own personal struggles with aspects of SMP1. An alternative interpretation of SMP1 surfaced in which a small number of PTs described SMP1 as necessitating that a teacher teach multiple solution methods to students, instead of engaging students in productive struggle to develop their own strategies. We present a framework illustrating the connections between SMP 1 and Pólya's problem solving phases, and we discuss how these findings connect to and build on previous research of PTs' experiences with problem solving. We offer implications for the targeted support needed in teacher preparation programs to address these struggles, to prevent them from being replicated in their students.     

Epistemic Conditions on “Ought”: E=K as a Case Study

In The Norm of Belief, John Gibbons claims that there is a “natural reaction” to the general idea that one can be normatively required to Ø when that requirement is in some sense outside of one’s first person perspective or inaccessible to one. The reaction amounts to the claim that this is not possible. Whether this is a natural or intuitive idea or not, it is difficult to articulate exactly why we might think it is correct. To do so, we need a view about the relationship between agents’ capacities to accord with normative requirements and the conditions under which those normative requirements obtain. I offer an account of the epistemic dimension of this relationship. The goal is to provide enough of a story about the natural reaction to make accounting for it look like an important desideratum for any theory of the nature of normative requirements—whether these are moral or epistemic. To focus the discussion, I use Timothy Williamson’s knowledge-first view of evidence as an example of a view in epistemology that generates the natural reaction. One upshot of the discussion, then, is a detailed account of what is troubling about Williamson’s influential but controversial view of evidence.     

Minimum deviation, quasi-LU factorization of nonsingular matrices

Not all matrices enjoy the existence of an LU factorization. For those that do not, a number of “repairs” are possible. For nonsingular matrices we offer here a permutation-free repair in which the matrix is factored , with and collectively as near as possible to lower and upper triangular (in a natural sense defined herein). Such factorization is not generally unique in any sense. In the process, we investigate further the structure of matrices without LU factorization and permutations that produce an LU factorization.     

On Not Counting the Cost: Ad Hocness and Disconfirmation

I offer an account of ad hocness that explains why the adoption of an ad hoc auxiliary is accompanied by the disconfirmation of a hypothesis H. H must be conjoined with an auxiliary (or set of auxiliaries) a′, which is improbable antecedently given H, while ~H does not have this disability. This account renders it unnecessary to require, for identifying (bad) ad hocness, that either a′ or H have a posterior probability less than or equal to 0.5; there are also other reasons for abandoning that condition. I distinguish between formal ad hocness, which is bad in the probabilistic sense that it results in disconfirmation of H, and argumentative ad hocness, which actually involves bad reasoning on the part of a subject. The latter is what I call “not counting the cost.” This distinction allows us to see why the 0.5 condition appeared attractive in the first place. The concept of not counting the cost also has implications for other areas of research, including both a Bayesian concept of unfalsifiability and the classic epistemological question of the problem of the external world.     

Approximation with Impulse Trains

The impulse train obtained by sampling an analog signal is studied directly. It is shown to represent the signal in a weak sense and to converge to the signal as the sampling interval converges to 0. The convergence is in the sense of Sobolev spaces and in the sense of another Hilbert space for which the shifted “delta functions” are orthogonal.