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由经济学理论分析可知,货币政策对房地产价格的具有显著的影响.利用LM检验和LR检验得到,包含货币政策变量和房地产价格变量的VAR模型具有非线性特征,并构建了相应的LSTVAR模型.运用广义脉冲响应函数研究了货币供应量与利率变化对中国房地产价格动态影响的非对称性. 相似文献
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对2000年1月至2012年5月流通中的货币、狭义货币、广义货币进行结构变化的内生断点检验。综合结构变化单、双断点检验的结果,发现两种实证检验的结果是基本一致的。内生断点频繁地发生于2009年第一季度,金融危机爆发后扩张型货币政策使得货币供应量出现向上的截距漂移。其他断点发生在2004年6月、2007午2月和2010年2月等,这些断点也与特定的货币政策下的重大离散事件相对应,重大离散事件对货币供应量产生持续影响。 相似文献
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本文以货币政策工具调控货币供应量为重点,结合我国货币政策传导机制和目前的经济和金融体制,在定量研究货币政策工具、中介目标和最终目标三者之间关系的基础上,建立了一个货币政策宏观调控的动态大系统模型.应用大系统共态预估法构造了此模型的最优控制算法,并利用比较静态分析方法研究了货币政策的非中立性.最后运用本模型就近期因法定存款准备金率和利率下调对货币供给量的影响进行了实例分析. 相似文献
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拟用消费者信心指数、消费者满意指数和消费者预期指数对货币政策的反应,来代表微观面上货币政策的非对称性效应,并采用1999年-2013年的相关数据来做实证检验,以期为研究我国货币政策有效性问题提供新的思路.结果发现,虽然消费者景气指数对正负货币供给冲击的回馈并不明显,但是正向货币供给冲击的效用还是稍强于负向货币供给冲击的效用. 相似文献
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本文根据上证综合指数和深圳成分股2003年1月2日到2006年5月17日的收盘价及换手,对上证综合指数和深圳成分股的收盘价趋势进行了分析。用R/S分析法对收盘价趋势进行了分析,为分析历史数据对收盘价的影响,引入了关联尺度函数,通过求解出上证综合指数和深圳成分股的赫斯特(Hurst)指数,可以求出其关联尺度。根据赫斯特指数及关联尺度,我们分析出了收盘价是一个有偏的随机游动,并给出了上证综合指数和深圳成分股走势的相关结论。 相似文献
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为分析和预测货币供应量的变化趋势,建立了M0供应量的同比增长率RMO与M2供应量的同比增长率RM2的GMVAR(2,2)模型和VAR(2,2)模型.通过对比AIC和BIC发现GMVAR(2,2)模型明显优于一般VAR(2,2)模型.对未知参数进行最大似然估计,发现GMVAR(2,2)模型参数估计的效果较好.通过使用GMVAR(2,2)模型对RMO和RM2进行预测,发现未来一年内RMO呈平稳状态,RM2呈上升趋势. 相似文献
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国际间金融市场一体化的不断深入,尤其是美国次贷危机引起的全球金融风暴,使得金融传染对我国金融市场的威胁日益显著。本文运用非线性相互依赖性与支持向量机混合算法,研究上证综合指数,深证成份股指数以及香港恒生指数之间相互影响的情况。通过计算每两个市场指数之间的非线性相互可预测测度,发现每对市场指数之间都存在着很强的非线性相互依赖性,并发现上证指数和深证成指受恒生指数的影响更大一些,该结果将有助于对金融传染的进一步研究及采取针对措施。 相似文献
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Consignment contracts have been widely employed in many industries. Under such contracts, items are sold at a retailer’s but the supplier retains the full ownership of the inventory until purchased by consumers; the supplier collects payment from the retailer based on actual units sold. We investigate how competition among retailers influences the supply chain decisions and profits under different consignment arrangements, namely a consignment price contract and a consignment contract with revenue share. First, we investigate how these two consignment contracts and a price only contract compare from the perspective of each supply chain partner. We find that the retailers benefit more from a consignment price contract than from a consignment contract with revenue share or a price only contract, regardless of the level of retailer differentiation. The supplier’s most beneficial contact, however, critically depends upon the level of retailer differentiation: a consignment contract with revenue share is preferable for the supplier if retailer differentiation is strong; otherwise a consignment price contract is preferable. Second, we study how retailer differentiation affects the profits of all supply chain partners. We find that less retailer differentiation improves the supplier’s profit for both types of consignment contract. Moreover, less retailer differentiation improves profits of the retailers in a consignment price contract, but not necessarily in a consignment contract with revenue share. 相似文献
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It is common in practice that retailers liquidate unsold perishable goods via clearance pricing. Markdown money is frequently used between manufacturers and retailers in such a supply chain setting. It is a form of rebate from a manufacturer to subsidize a retailer’s clearance pricing after the regular season. Two forms of markdown money are percent markdown money, in which the markdown money is limited to only a certain percentage of the retail price markdown, and quantity markdown money, which is essentially a buyback contract or returns policy with a rebate credit paid to the retailer for each unsold unit after the regular season. We show both forms of markdown money contracts can coordinate the supply chain and we discuss their strengths and limitations. 相似文献
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We analyze a supply chain with a Resale Price Maintenance (RPM) contract in which the manufacturer sets the retail price with a general multiplicative price–demand function and prove the existence/uniqueness of an equilibrium. We also compare the equilibrium prices and quantities, consumer surplus and total system welfare for the RPM and wholesale price contracts. We conclude that a manufacturer may capture a smaller share of the total supply chain profit despite her ability to set the retail price. 相似文献
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具有公平偏好成员的两阶段供应链分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本论文分析具有公平偏好零售商与制造商组成的供应链,在制造商作为Stackelberg博弈的领导者提供批发价格合同给零售商时,零售商如何确定最优的订货量而制造商如何确定最优的批发价格.当需求满足均匀分布时,研究发现存在均衡的最优订货量以及最优批发价格.本论文也分析了需求分布参数对均衡最优解的影响.最后,通过数值计算对供应链的绩效如何随公平偏好参数变化的问题进行了研究.并且说明公平偏好是零售商获取其对供应链利润分配的一种手段. 相似文献
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针对由一个制造商和一个有资金约束零售商组成的双渠道供应链系统,利用Stackelberg博弈模型,研究零售商分别选择银行贷款和延迟支付解决资金约束问题时,不同定价方案中制造商和零售商的最优决策,分析零售渠道市场份额以及融资利率对决策结果的影响。研究表明:零售商的资金不足不会改变各参与方最优决策随零售渠道市场份额的变化趋势。在双渠道不统一定价方案下,若选择银行贷款,只有零售渠道市场份额较小且利率较高时,直销价格随利率的增加而增加;若申请延迟支付,零售价格和直销价格不受利率影响。在双渠道统一定价方案下,销售价格只有在零售渠道市场份额较低时随银行贷款利率的增加而增加,与延迟支付利率无关。 相似文献
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研究由一个供应商和一个零售商组成的二级供应链,由供应商提供产品服务,零售商制定产品零售价,在一个销售周期结束后存在零售商向供应商的退货,退货产生的物流成本由零售商与供应商通过博弈的方式共同分担.基于博弈理论,建立了供应商和零售商以各自利润最大化为目标,以服务水平、零售价和退货为主要影响因素的Nash和Stackelberg博弈.采用数值方法,对这两个博弈进行了求解.得到供应商为零售商分担退货物流成本最优比例、供应商最优服务水平和零售商最优定价策略.研究表明,Nash博弈时的解是唯一的,此时供应商不会分担退货物流成本;Stackelberg博弈时,供应商分担退货物流成本比例依据批发价大小而定. 相似文献
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This paper develops two coordination models of a supply chain consisting of one manufacturer, one dominant retailer and multiple fringe retailers to investigate how to coordinate the supply chain after demand disruption. We consider two coordination schedules, linear quantity discount schedule and Groves wholesale price schedule. We find that, under the linear quantity discount schedule, the manufacturer only needs to adjust the maximum variable wholesale price after demand disruption. For each case of the disrupted amount of demand, the higher the market share of the dominant retailer, the lower its average wholesale price and the subsidy will be under the linear quantity discount schedule, while the higher its fraction of the supply chain’s profit will be under Groves wholesale price schedule. When the increased amount of demand is very large and production cost is sufficiently low, linear quantity discount schedule is better for the manufacturer. However, when the production cost is sufficiently large, Groves wholesale price schedule is always better. We also find that the disrupted amount of demand largely affects the allocation of the supply chain’s profit. 相似文献
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We consider financial market using mathematical models which incorporate an excess demand function that depends not only upon the price but on the price derivative. The classical (value-based) motivation for purchasing the equity is augmented with a trend-based strategy of buying due to rising prices. An analysis (based on money flow and the finiteness of assets) of the supply, demand and price as a function of time leads to a system of ordinary differential equations which is mathematically complete. The numerical study of our equations exhibits overshooting, abrupt reversals and oscillations in prices. We examine our models within the context of real markets and economic laboratory experiments by comparing its predictions with a set of Porter and Smith experiments and with all US stock market “crashes” since 1929. 相似文献