A stochastic linear programming approach to hierarchical production planning

This paper examines production planning decisions. The process is formulated as a hierarchical production planning (HPP) model under uncertain demand. A review of HPP articles indicates that while current models do consider uncertainty as a part of their solution methods, a deficiency persists since these models fail to incorporate the uncertain demand explicitly in the formulation of the problem. A stochastic linear programming model (SLP) is proposed to better reflect reality and to provide a superior solution. The model remains computationally tractable despite the precise incorporation of uncertainty and the imposition of penalties when constraints are violated. A problem is introduced which illustrates the superiority of the proposed model over those currently being applied.     

Application of fuzzy linear programming to aggregate production plan of a refinery industry in Taiwan

After the oil market in Taiwan has been opened to private enterprise, the oil refinery industries in Taiwan have not only entered a completely free market; but also faced the challenge from world competition. In such an environment, there exist varieties of uncertain factors, which have caused the failure of traditional production planning models. Therefore, in this study we develop a responsive and flexible production planning system to cope with uncertain manufacturing factors. On the basis of fuzzy set theory, the uncertain demand and cost are clarified, and a fuzzy linear programming model is proposed to find a maximal profit production strategy with degree of satisfaction. The proposed model has been applied to CPC Corporation, Taiwan. The results show that the developed model is able to provide useful information for developing profit-effective oil refinery strategies in an uncertain environment.     

Stochastic multi-site capacity planning of TFT-LCD manufacturing using expected shadow-price based decomposition

This paper presents a stochastic optimization model and efficient decomposition algorithm for multi-site capacity planning under the uncertainty of the TFT-LCD industry. The objective of the stochastic capacity planning is to determine a robust capacity allocation and expansion policy hedged against demand uncertainties because the demand forecasts faced by TFT-LCD manufacturers are usually inaccurate and vary rapidly over time. A two-stage scenario-based stochastic mixed integer programming model that extends the deterministic multi-site capacity planning model proposed by Chen et al. (2010) [1] is developed to discuss the multi-site capacity planning problem in the face of uncertain demands. In addition a three-step methodology is proposed to generate discrete demand scenarios within the stochastic optimization model by approximating the stochastic continuous demand process fitted from the historical data. An expected shadow-price based decomposition, a novel algorithm for the stage decomposition approach, is developed to obtain a near-optimal solution efficiently through iterative procedures and parallel computing. Preliminary computational study shows that the proposed decomposition algorithm successfully addresses the large-scale stochastic capacity planning model in terms of solution quality and computation time. The proposed algorithm also outperforms the plain use of the CPLEX MIP solver as the problem size becomes larger and the number of demand scenarios increases.     

Proactive data envelopment analysis: Effective production and capacity expansion in stochastic environments

Demand fluctuations that cause variations in output levels will affect a firm’s technical inefficiency. To assess this demand effect, a demand-truncated production function is developed and an “effectiveness” measure is proposed. Often a firm can adjust some input resources influencing the output level in an attempt to match demand. We propose a short-run capacity planning method, termed proactive data envelopment analysis, which quantifies the effectiveness of a firm’s production system under demand uncertainty. Using a stochastic programming DEA approach, we improve upon short-run capacity expansion planning models by accounting for the decreasing marginal benefit of inputs and estimating the expected value of effectiveness, given demand. The law of diminishing marginal returns is an important property of production function; however, constant marginal productivity is usually assumed for capacity expansion problems resulting in biased capacity estimates. Applying the proposed model in an empirical study of convenience stores in Japan demonstrates the actionable advice the model provides about the levels of variable inputs in uncertain demand environments. We conclude that the method is most suitable for characterizing production systems with perishable goods or service systems that cannot store inventories.     

Modeling fuzzy multi-period production planning and sourcing problem with credibility service levels

A great deal of research has been done on production planning and sourcing problems, most of which concern deterministic or stochastic demand and cost situations and single period systems. In this paper, we consider a new class of multi-period production planning and sourcing problem with credibility service levels, in which a manufacturer has a number of plants and subcontractors and has to meet the product demand according to the credibility service levels set by its customers. In the proposed problem, demands and costs are uncertain and assumed to be fuzzy variables with known possibility distributions. The objective of the problem is to minimize the total expected cost, including the expected value of the sum of the inventory holding and production cost in the planning horizon. Because the proposed problem is too complex to apply conventional optimization algorithms, we suggest an approximation approach (AA) to evaluate the objective function. After that, two algorithms are designed to solve the proposed production planning problem. The first is a PSO algorithm combining the AA, and the second is a hybrid PSO algorithm integrating the AA, neural network (NN) and PSO. Finally, one numerical example is provided to compare the effectiveness of the proposed two algorithms.     

A robust optimization model for production planning of perishable products

In this study, a robust optimization model is developed to solve production planning problems for perishable products in an uncertain environment in which the setup costs, production costs, labour costs, inventory costs, and workforce changing costs are minimized. Using the concept of postponement, the production process for perishable products is differentiated into two phases to better utilize the resources. By adjusting penalty parameters, decision-makers can determine an optimal production loading plan and better utilize resources while considering different economic growth scenarios. A case from a Hong Kong plush toy company is studied and the characteristics of perishable products are discussed. Numerical results demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed model. An analysis of the trade-off between solution robustness and model robustness is also presented.     

Short-term liner ship fleet planning with container transshipment and uncertain container shipment demand

This paper proposes a short-term liner ship fleet planning problem by taking into account container transshipment and uncertain container shipment demand. Given a liner shipping service network comprising a number of ship routes, the problem is to determine the numbers and types of ships required in the fleet and assign each of these ships to a particular ship route to maximize the expected value of the total profit over a short-term planning horizon. These decisions have to be made prior to knowing the exact container shipment demand, which is affected by some unpredictable and uncontrollable factors. This paper thus formulates this realistic short-term planning problem as a two-stage stochastic integer programming model. A solution algorithm, integrating the sample average approximation with a dual decomposition and Lagrangian relaxation approach, is then proposed. Finally, a numerical example is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and solution algorithm.     

A robust optimization model for multi-product two-stage capacitated production planning under uncertainty

Production planning (PP) is one of the most important issues carried out in manufacturing environments which seeks efficient planning, scheduling and coordination of all production activities that optimizes the company’s objectives. In this paper, we studied a two-stage real world capacitated production system with lead time and setup decisions in which some parameters such as production costs and customer demand are uncertain. A robust optimization model is developed to formulate the problem in which minimization of the total costs including the setup costs, production costs, labor costs, inventory costs, and workforce changing costs is considered as performance measure. The robust approach is used to reduce the effects of fluctuations of the uncertain parameters with regards to all the possible future scenarios. A mixed-integer programming (MIP) model is developed to formulate the related robust production planning problem. In fact the robust proposed model is presented to generate an initial robust schedule. The performance of this schedule could be improved against of any possible occurrences of uncertain parameters. A case from an Iran refrigerator factory is studied and the characteristics of factory and its products are discussed. The computational results display the robustness and effectiveness of the model and highlight the importance of using robust optimization approach in generating more robust production plans in the uncertain environments. The tradeoff between solution robustness and model robustness is also analyzed.     

A multi-class multi-level capacitated lot sizing model

When demand loading is higher than available capacity, it takes a great deal of effort for a traditional MRP system to obtain a capacity-feasible production plan. Also, the separation of lot sizing decisions and capacity requirement planning makes the setup decisions more difficult. In a practical application, a production planning system should prioritize demands when allocating manufacturing resources. This study proposes a planning model that integrates all MRP computation modules. The model not only includes multi-level capacitated lot sizing problems but also considers multiple demand classes. Each demand class corresponds to a mixed integer programming (MIP) problem. By sequentially solving the MIP problems according to their demand class priorities, this proposed approach allocates finite manufacturing resources and generates feasible production plans. In this paper we experiment with three heuristic search algorithms: (1) tabu search; (2) simulated annealing, and (3) genetic algorithm, to solve the MIP problems. Experimental designs and statistical methods are used to evaluate and analyse the performance of these three algorithms. The results show that tabu search and simulated annealing perform best in the confirmed order demand class and forecast demand class, respectively.     

Robust optimization of uncertain multistage inventory systems with inexact data in decision rules

In production-inventory problems customer demand is often subject to uncertainty. Therefore, it is challenging to design production plans that satisfy both demand and a set of constraints on e.g. production capacity and required inventory levels. Adjustable robust optimization (ARO) is a technique to solve these dynamic (multistage) production-inventory problems. In ARO, the decision in each stage is a function of the data on the realizations of the uncertain demand gathered from the previous periods. These data, however, are often inaccurate; there is much evidence in the information management literature that data quality in inventory systems is often poor. Reliance on data “as is” may then lead to poor performance of “data-driven” methods such as ARO. In this paper, we remedy this weakness of ARO by introducing a model that treats past data itself as an uncertain model parameter. We show that computational tractability of the robust counterparts associated with this extension of ARO is still maintained. The benefits of the new model are demonstrated by a numerical test case of a well-studied production-inventory problem. Our approach is also applicable to other ARO models outside the realm of production-inventory planning.     

Production planning via scenario modelling

Several Linear Programming (LP) and Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) models for the production and capacity planning problems with uncertainty in demand are proposed. In contrast to traditional mathematical programming approaches, we use scenarios to characterize the uncertainty in demand. Solutions are obtained for each scenario and then these individual scenario solutions are aggregated to yield a nonanticipative or implementable policy. Such an approach makes it possible to model nonstationarity in demand as well as a variety of recourse decision types. Two scenario-based models for formalizing implementable policies are presented. The first model is a LP model for multi-product, multi-period, single-level production planning to determine the production volume and product inventory for each period, such that the expected cost of holding inventory and lost demand is minimized. The second model is a MIP model for multi-product, multi-period, single-level production planning to help in sourcing decisions for raw materials supply. Although these formulations lead to very large scale mathematical programming problems, our computational experience with LP models for real-life instances is very encouraging.     

Heuristic Interpretation of Infeasible Solutions to a Production Scheduling Problem in Cigarette Manufacture

In this paper an end-user Infeasibility Resolution Heuristic (IRH) is developed to assist managers and production schedulers in the evaluation and interpretation of infeasible solutions arising from the use of a production scheduling model of a tobacco processing plant. The primary aim of the model is initially to determine whether the forecast annual demand for tobacco products can be met by the plant, and if not what must be done. Having determined that the demanded quantities are feasible, the model is then used to arrive at a production schedule such that the minimum number of machines are used in the entire process for the planning period (the model is a monthly one linked together by the closing stock equations for up to 12 months ahead). The operations of the plant modelled include the selection of the appropriate blend of leaf, assignment of the forecast product demand to suitable making machines, production of the required quantity of filters, assignment of the cigarettes produced to specific packers and then the determination as to whether the final product produced in the current period will be used to satisfy the current month's demand or demand in the future. The problem of sequencing the monthly production once the production schedule is determined has not been dealt with in this paper.     

Agricultural planning of annual plants under demand,maturation, harvest,and yield risk

In this study we present a planning methodology for a firm whose objective is to match the random supply of annual premium fruits and vegetables from a number of contracted farms and the random demand from the retailers during the planning period. The supply uncertainty is due to the uncertainty of the maturation time, harvest time, and yield. The demand uncertainty is the uncertainty of weekly demand from the retailers. We provide a planning methodology to determine the farm areas and the seeding times for annual plants that survive for only one growing season in such a way that the expected total profit is maximized. Both the single period and the multi period cases are analyzed depending on the type of the plant. The performance of the solution methodology is evaluated by using numerical experiments. These experiments show that the proposed methodology matches random supply and random demand in a very effective way and improves the expected profit substantially compared to the planning approaches where the uncertainties are not taken into consideration.     

Robust production planning in a manufacturing environment with random yield: A case in sawmill production planning

This paper addresses a multi-period, multi-product sawmill production planning problem where the yields of processes are random variables due to non-homogeneous quality of raw materials (logs). In order to determine the production plans with robust customer service level, robust optimization approach is applied. Two robust optimization models with different variability measures are proposed, which can be selected based on the tradeoff between the expected backorder/inventory cost and the decision maker risk aversion level about the variability of customer service level. The implementation results of the proposed approach for a realistic-scale sawmill example highlights the significance of using robust optimization in generating more robust production plans in the uncertain environments compared with stochastic programming.     

A two-warehouse production model for deteriorating inventory items with time-dependent demands

A two-warehouse inventory model for deteriorating items with time-dependent demand has been developed. Compared with previous models, the model involves a free form time-dependent demand and a finite replenishment rate within a finite planning horizon. Rather than the heuristic approach of equal production cycle times adopted by Lee and Ma, an approach which permits variation in production cycle times is adopted to determine the number of production cycles and the times for replenishment during a finite planning horizon. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the application of the model and the results indicate that the performance of the proposed approach is superior to that of the heuristic approach of Lee and Ma.     

On the average performance of the adjustable RO and its use as an offline tool for multi-period production planning under uncertainty

Robust optimization (RO) is a distribution-free worst-case solution methodology designed for uncertain maximization problems via a max-min approach considering a bounded uncertainty set. It yields a feasible solution over this set with a guaranteed worst-case value. As opposed to a previous conception that RO is conservative based on optimal value analysis, we argue that in practice the uncertain parameters rarely take simultaneously the values of the worst-case scenario, and thus introduce a new performance measure based on simulated average values. To this end, we apply the adjustable RO (AARC) to a single new product multi-period production planning problem under an uncertain and bounded demand so as to maximize the total profit. The demand for the product is assumed to follow a typical life-cycle pattern, whose length is typically hard to anticipate. We suggest a novel approach to predict the production plan’s profitable cycle length, already at the outset of the planning horizon. The AARC is an offline method that is employed online and adjusted to past realizations of the demand by a linear decision rule (LDR). We compare it to an alternative offline method, aiming at maximum expected profit, applying the same LDR. Although the AARC maximizes the profit against a worst-case demand scenario, our empirical results show that the average performance of both methods is very similar. Further, AARC consistently guarantees a worst profit over the entire uncertainty set, and its model’s size is considerably smaller and thus exhibit superior performance.     

Dynamic dairy facility location and supply chain planning under traffic congestion and demand uncertainty: A case study of Tehran

In this paper, dynamic dairy facility location and supply chain planning are studied through minimizing the costs of facility location, traffic congestion and transportation of raw/processed milk and dairy products under demand uncertainty. The proposed model dynamically incorporates possible changes in transportation network, facility investment costs, monetary value of time and changes in production process. In addition, the time variation and the demand uncertainty for dairy products in each period of the planning horizon is taken into account to determine the optimal facility location and the optimal production volumes. Computational results are presented for the model on a number of test problems. Also, an empirical case study is conducted in order to investigate the dynamic effects of traffic congestion and demand uncertainty on facility location design and total system costs.     

Production planning for hybrid remanufacturing and manufacturing system with component recovery

In this paper, we address component recovery under the condition of limited resources from the OEM's (Original Equipment Manufacturer's) standpoint. We develop a linear programming model for a hybrid remanufacturing and manufacturing system for production planning problems with deterministic returns. In this paper, a data set from an OEM that both remanufactures and manufactures the products is used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed model. Subsequently, an analysis of the impact of the remanufactured product’s price and the quantity of returns on revenue and total cost will be discussed. We have found that uncertain factors of manufacturing influence the profit and uncertain factors of remanufacturing influence the production planning, such as the rate of the yield on component remanufacturing and the quantity of returns.     

Fuzzy pricing,marketing and service planning in a fuzzy inventory model: A geometric programming approach

In the real world markets, demand is influenced by different parameters. Recently, many researchers have been interested in integrated production and marketing planning strategies in inventory models where demand depends on different parameters such as price and/or marketing expenditure. The quality of services that are offered to customers of a product is one of the most important parameters that affects demand in the real markets and has not been considered in development of inventory models. On the other hand, the cost parameters in real inventory systems and other parameters such as price, marketing and service elasticity to demand are imprecise and uncertain in nature. So, the notion of fuzziness can be applied to cope with this uncertainty. In this paper, a new fuzzy profit maximization inventory model with shortages is proposed. The demand is considered as a power function of price, marketing expenditure and service expenditure. Furthermore, unit cost is determined as a power function of order quantity. Since the proposed model is in a fuzzy environment, a fuzzy decision should be made to meet the decision criteria, and the results should be fuzzy. Therefore, the proposed model is formulated and solved using geometric programming and fuzzy optimization techniques to derive an approximation of the results’ membership functions. The model is illustrated with a numerical example and finally a case study is provided for evaluation and validation of the results of model.     

Semiconductor lot allocation using robust optimization

In this work, the problem of allocating a set of production lots to satisfy customer orders is considered. This research is of relevance to lot-to-order matching problems in semiconductor supply chain settings. We consider that lot-splitting is not allowed during the allocation process due to standard practices. Furthermore, lot-sizes are regarded as uncertain planning data when making the allocation decisions due to potential yield loss. In order to minimize the total penalties of demand un-fulfillment and over-fulfillment, a robust mixed-integer optimization approach is adopted to model is proposed the problem of allocating a set of work-in-process lots to customer orders, where lot-sizes are modeled using ellipsoidal uncertainty sets. To solve the optimization problem efficiently we apply the techniques of branch-and-price and Benders decomposition. The advantages of our model are that it can represent uncertainty in a straightforward manner with little distributional assumptions, and it can produce solutions that effectively hedge against the uncertainty in the lot-sizes using very reasonable amounts of computational effort.