CUSUM,GLR,GEWMA以及RFCuscore控制图监测稳定过程均值漂移的效果比较(英)

本文给出了累积和控制图(CUSUM)监测稳定过程均值漂移的平均运行长度(ARL)的区间估计,并采用数字模拟的方法对CUSUM,GLR,GEWMA以及RFCuscore四种控制图监测稳定过程均值漂移的效果进行比较,结果显示CUSUM效果最好.     

CUSUM，GLR，GEWMA以及RFCuscore控制图监测稳定过程均值漂移的效果比较

本文给出了累积和控制图(CUSUM)监测稳定过程均值漂移的平均运行长度(ARL)的区间估计,并采用数字模拟的方法对CUSUM,GLR,GEWMA以及RFCuscore四种控制图监测稳定过程均值漂移的效果进行比较,结果显示CUSUM效果最好.     

带负债的连续时间最优资产组合选择

构造了一个带外生负债的连续时间均值-方差最优投资组合选择模型.假定风险资产价格的演变服从几何布朗运动,累积负债服从带漂移的布朗运动,并且市场系数恒为常数,借助随机LQ控制方法得到相应的均值-方差优化问题的最优策略和有效边界.     

基于非对称损失函数的过程均值与标准差优化设计

质量特性的过程均值与过程标准差的选定是一个重要的命题,它们是影响质量成本的重要因素.由顾客定义的特性目标均值以及初始标准差往往并不一定能使得总体的质量损失最小化。针对此问题,本文首先讨论了非对称的质量损失函数,并在此基础上构造出质量特性目标均值与标准差的优选模型,进而得到最优目标过程均值与标准差。在模型的应用中表明:其他情况不变的情况下,质量特性最优均值与最优标准差对质量损失系数具有一定的稳健性。     

含有信用风险的跳扩散市场的最优组合选择

假定投资者将其财富分配在这样两种风险资产中,一种是股票,价格服从跳跃扩散过程;一种是有信用风险的债券,其价格服从复合泊松过程.在均值-方差准则下通过最优控制原理来研究投资者的最优投资策略选择问题,得到了最优投资策略及有效边界,最后通过数值例子分析了违约强度、债券预期收益率以及目标财富对最优投资策略的影响.     

混合正态分布下基于斜线截断的稳健似然比累积和控制图北大核心CSCD

累积和控制图主要用于对正态分布过程中均值的中小漂移的检测,但是对厚尾分布过程监测并不稳定.MacEachern等(2007)提出了用于监测厚尾分布过程的稳健似然比累积和(RLCUSUM)控制图.文章主要研究RLCUSUM控制图的性质,包括可控平均运行长度关于控制限的性质和过程失控时不同真实均值对平均运行长度的影响等,并提出了对于对数似然比函数进行斜线截断的方式,同时分析总结了不同污染程度的混合正态分布下各种截断方式得到的RLCUSUM控制图的适用情况.     

混合正态分布下基于斜线截断的稳健似然比累积和控制图

累积和控制图主要用于对正态分布过程中均值的中小漂移的检测,但是对厚尾分布过程监测并不稳定.MacEachern等(2007)提出了用于监测厚尾分布过程的稳健似然比累积和(RLCUSUM)控制图.文章主要研究RLCUSUM控制图的性质,包括可控平均运行长度关于控制限的性质和过程失控时不同真实均值对平均运行长度的影响等,并提出了对于对数似然比函数进行斜线截断的方式,同时分析总结了不同污染程度的混合正态分布下各种截断方式得到的RLCUSUM控制图的适用情况.     

Heston随机波动率模型下的资产负债管理问题

应用随机最优控制方法研究Heston随机波动率模型下带有负债过程的动态投资组合问题,其中假设股票价格服从Heston随机波动率模型,负债过程由带漂移的布朗运动所驱动.金融市场由一种无风险资产和一种风险资产组成.应用随机动态规划原理和变量替换法得出了上述问题在幂效用和指数效用函数下最优投资策略的显示解,并给出数值算例分别分析了市场参数在幂效用和指数效用函数下对最优投资策略的影响.     

流行病灭绝时间和费用估计随机模型

本文用具有吸收状态的生灭马氏过程建立了流行病随机模型,研究了灭绝之前生灭过程的分布,发现初始分布是拟平稳分布时,其灭绝时间服从指数分布,并得到了灭绝时间与状态概率的关系式和费用估计的期望值.应用模型给出了一个固定人口为N的流行病灭绝时间和平均费用的数值模拟结果.     

Vasicek利率与Heston模型下的最优投资和再保险

本文主要研究Vasicek随机利率模型下保险公司的最优投资与再保险问题.假设保险公司的盈余过程由带漂移的布朗运动来描述,保险公司通过购买比例再保险来转移索赔风险;同时,将财富投资于由一种无风险资产与一种风险资产组成的金融市场,其中,利率期限结构服从Vasicek利率模型,且风险资产价格过程满足Heston随机波动率模型.利用动态规划原理及变量替换的方法,得到了指数效用下最优投资与再保险策略的显示表达式,并给出数值例子分析了主要模型参数对最优策略的影响.     

Reliability analysis of two-unit cold standby repairable systems under Poisson shocks

This paper analyses the reliability of a cold standby system consisting of two repairable units, a switch and a repairman. At any time, one of the two units is operating while the other is on cold standby. The repairman may not always at the job site, or take vacation. We assume that shocks can attack the operating unit. The arrival times of the shocks follow a homogeneous Poisson process and their magnitude is a random variable following a known distribution. Time on repairing a failed unit and the length of repairman’s vacation follow general continuous probability distributions, respectively. The paper derives a number of reliability indices: system reliability, mean time to first failure, steady-state availability, and steady-state failure frequency.     

双跳-扩散过程下的脆弱期权定价

本文考虑含有交易对手违约风险的衍生产品的定价,以公司价值信用风险模型为基础,在标的资产价格和公司价值均服从跳-扩散过程的情况下,运用结构化的方法对脆弱期权定价进行建模,建立了双跳-扩散过程下的脆弱期权定价模型,分别在公司负债固定和随机的情况下推导出了脆弱期权的定价公式.     

Economic selection of process mean for single-vendor single-buyer supply chain

Process mean selection for a container-filling process is an important decision in a single-vendor single-buyer supply chain. Since the process mean determines the vendor’s conforming and yield rates, it influences the vendor–buyer decisions regarding the production lot size and number of shipments delivered from the vendor to buyer. It follows, therefore, that these decisions should be determined simultaneously in order to control the supply chain total cost. In this paper, we develop a model that integrates the single-vendor single-buyer problem with the process mean selection problem. This integrated model allows the vendor to deliver the produced lot to buyer in number of unequal-sized shipments. Moreover, every outgoing item is inspected, and each item failing to meet a lower specification limit is reprocessed. Further, in order to study the benefits of using this integrated model, two baseline cases are developed. The first of which considers a hierarchical model where the vendor determines the process mean and schedules of production and shipment separately. This hierarchical model is used to show the impact of integrating the process mean selection with production/inventory decisions. The other baseline case is studied in the sensitivity analysis where the optimal solution for a given process is compared to the optimal solution when the variation in the process output is negligible. The integrated model is expected to lead to reduction in reprocessing cost, minimal loss to customer due to the deviation from the optimum target value, and consequently, providing better products at reduced cost for customers. Also, a solution procedure is devised to find the optimal solution for the proposed model and sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the effect of the model key parameters on the optimal solution.     

Two shock and wear systems under repair standing a finite number of shocks

A shock and wear system standing a finite number of shocks and subject to two types of repairs is considered. The failure of the system can be due to wear or to a fatal shock. Associated to these failures there are two repair types: normal and severe. Repairs are as good as new. The shocks arrive following a Markovian arrival process, and the lifetime of the system follows a continuous phase-type distribution. The repair times follow different continuous phase-type distributions, depending on the type of failure. Under these assumptions, two systems are studied, depending on the finite number of shocks that the system can stand before a fatal failure that can be random or fixed. In the first case, the number of shocks is governed by a discrete phase-type distribution. After a finite (random or fixed) number of non-fatal shocks the system is repaired (severe repair). The repair due to wear is a normal repair. For these systems, general Markov models are constructed and the following elements are studied: the stationary probability vector; the transient rate of occurrence of failures; the renewal process associated to the repairs, including the distribution of the period between replacements and the number of non-fatal shocks in this period. Special cases of the model with random number of shocks are presented. An application illustrating the numerical calculations is given. The systems are studied in such a way that several particular cases can be deduced from the general ones straightaway. We apply the matrix-analytic methods for studying these models showing their versatility.     

带有相依重尾冲击的Poisson噪音过程尾的一致渐近性质

本文考虑了带有某种相依重尾冲击的Poisson噪音过程尾的一致渐近性质.当冲击是二元上尾渐近独立的非负随机变量具有长尾和控制变化尾分布且噪音函数具有正的上下界时,得到了过程尾概率的一致渐近公式.进而,当冲击具有连续的一致变化尾分布时,去除了噪音函数具有正的下界的限制.对于噪音函数不一定具有正的上界的情形,当冲击具有两两负象限相依结构时,也得到了一致渐近性结果.     

A note on replacement policy for a system subject to non-homogeneous pure birth shocks

A system is subject to shocks that arrive according to a non-homogeneous pure birth process. As shocks occur, the system has two types of failures. Type-I failure (minor failure) is removed by a general repair, whereas type-II failure (catastrophic failure) is removed by an unplanned replacement. The occurrence of the failure type is based on some random mechanism which depends on the number of shocks occurred since the last replacement. Under an age replacement policy, a planned (or scheduled) replacement happens whenever an operating system reaches age T. The aim of this note is to derive the expected cost functions and characterize the structure of the optimal replacement policy for such a general setting. We show that many previous models are special cases of our general model. A numerical example is presented to show the application of the algorithm and several useful insights.     

Optimal Dividend and Capital Injection Strategies in the Compound Poisson Model with Random Interest Rates

The paper considers the optimal dividend and capital injection strategies for the compound poisson risk process in a random interest rates environment. In the model, the surplus is assumed to be ordinary but the interest rates are governed by an exogenous Markov chain. Here, the problem is solved by two steps. First, we find out the capital injection form that the optimal strategy should follow. Then we look for the optimal solution in the restricted set with the particular capital injection form. In the paper, we discuss ``restricted' and ``unrestricted' two cases and provide a possible solution for ``unrestricted' case when the claim distribution is exponential.     

Shock models under a Markovian arrival process

A device submitted to shocks arriving randomly and causing damage is considered. Every shock can be fatal or not. The shocks follow a Markovian arrival process. When the shock is fatal, the device is instantaneously replaced. The Markov process governing the shocks is constructed, and the stationary probability vector calculated. The probability of the number of replacements during a time is determined. A particular case in which the fatal shock occurs after a fixed number of shocks is introduced, and a numerical application is performed. The expressions are in algorithmic form due to the use of matrix-analytic methods. Computational aspects are introduced. This model extends others previously considered in the literature.     

On the lifetime behavior of a discrete time shock model

In this article, we study a shock model in which the shocks occur according to a binomial process, i.e. the interarrival times between successive shocks follow a geometric distribution with mean 1/p$1/p$. According to the model, the system fails when the time between two consecutive shocks is less than a prespecified level. This is the discrete time version of the so-called δ$\delta$-shock model which has been previously studied for the continuous case. We obtain the probability mass function and probability generating function of the system’s lifetime. We also present an extension of the results to the case where the shock occurrences are dependent in a Markovian fashion.     

具有Vasicek利率的风险过程的破产概率的分解(英文)

In this paper, it is assumed that an insurer with a jump-diffusion risk process would invest its surplus in a bond market, and the interest structure of the bond market is assumed to follow the Vasicek interest model. This paper focuses on the studying of the ruin problems in the above compounded process. In this compounded risk model, ruin may be caused by a claim or oscillation. We decompose the ruin probability for the compounded risk process into two probabilities： the probability that ruin caused by a claim and the probability that ruin caused by oscillation. Integro-differential equations for these ruin probabilities are derived. When the claim sizes are exponentially distributed, the above-mentioned integro-differential equations can be reduced into a three-order partial differential equation.