Asymptotic ɛ -admissibility of the sample variance as an estimator of the population variance

A quantitative estimate is given of the robustness of the characterization of the distribution with a density by the property of asymptotic -admissibility of the sample variance as an estimator of the population variance with a quadratic loss function.Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov Leningradskogo Otdeleniya Matematicheskogo Instituta im. V. A. Steklova AN SSSR, Vol. 61, pp. 75–83, 1976.     

Optimal mean–variance selling strategies

Assuming that the stock price X follows a geometric Brownian motion with drift \(\mu \in \mathbb {R}\) and volatility \(\sigma >0\), and letting \(\mathsf {P}_{\!x}\) denote a probability measure under which X starts at \(x>0\), we study the dynamic version of the nonlinear mean–variance optimal stopping problem

$$\begin{aligned} \sup _\tau \Big [ \mathsf {E}\,\!_{X_t}(X_\tau ) - c\, \mathsf {V}ar\,\!_{\!X_t}(X_\tau ) \Big ] \end{aligned}$$

where t runs from 0 onwards, the supremum is taken over stopping times \(\tau \) of X, and \(c>0\) is a given and fixed constant. Using direct martingale arguments we first show that when \(\mu \le 0\) it is optimal to stop at once and when \(\mu \ge \sigma ^2\!/2\) it is optimal not to stop at all. By employing the method of Lagrange multipliers we then show that the nonlinear problem for \(0 < \mu < \sigma ^2\!/2\) can be reduced to a family of linear problems. Solving the latter using a free-boundary approach we find that the optimal stopping time is given by

$$\begin{aligned} \tau _* = \inf \,\! \left\{ \, t \ge 0\; \vert \; X_t \ge \tfrac{\gamma }{c(1-\gamma )}\, \right\} \end{aligned}$$

where \(\gamma = \mu /(\sigma ^2\!/2)\). The dynamic formulation of the problem and the method of solution are applied to the constrained problems of maximising/minimising the mean/variance subject to the upper/lower bound on the variance/mean from which the nonlinear problem above is obtained by optimising the Lagrangian itself.

     

Mean–variance approximations to expected utility

It is often asserted that the application of mean–variance analysis assumes normal (Gaussian) return distributions or quadratic utility functions. This common mistake confuses sufficient versus necessary conditions for the applicability of modern portfolio theory. If one believes (as does the author) that choice should be guided by the expected utility maxim, then the necessary and sufficient condition for the practical use of mean–variance analysis is that a careful choice from a mean–variance efficient frontier will approximately maximize expected utility for a wide variety of concave (risk-averse) utility functions. This paper reviews a half-century of research on mean–variance approximations to expected utility. The many studies in this field have been generally supportive of mean–variance analysis, subject to certain (initially unanticipated) caveats.     

Non-linear equity portfolio variance reduction under a mean–variance framework—A delta–gamma approach

To examine the variance reduction from portfolios with both primary and derivative assets we develop a mean–variance Markovitz portfolio management problem. By invoking the delta–gamma approximation we reduce the problem to a well-posed quadratic programming problem. From a practitioner’s perspective, the primary goal is to understand the benefits of adding derivative securities to portfolios of primary assets. Our numerical experiments quantify this variance reduction from sample equity portfolios to mixed portfolios (containing both equities and equity derivatives).     

Stochastic goal programming: A mean–variance approach

We propose a stochastic goal programming (GP) model leading to a structure of mean–variance minimisation. The solution to the stochastic problem is obtained from a linkage between the standard expected utility theory and a strictly linear, weighted GP model under uncertainty. The approach essentially consists in specifying the expected utility equation corresponding to every goal. Arrow's absolute risk aversion coefficients play their role in the calculation process. Once the model is defined and justified, an illustrative example is developed.     

A new foundation for the mean–variance analysis

In this paper, I re-examine how the mean–variance analysis is consistent with its traditional theoretical foundations, namely, stochastic dominance and the expected utility theory. Then I propose a simplified version of the coarse utility theory as a new foundation. I prove that, by assuming risk aversion and the normality of asset variables, the simplified model is well behaved; indifference curves are convex and the opportunity set is concave. Therefore, there exist global optimal portfolios in the market. Finally, I prove that decision-making in accordance with the simplified model is consistent with the mean–variance analysis.     

Optimal multi-period mean–variance policy under no-shorting constraint

We consider in this paper the mean–variance formulation in multi-period portfolio selection under no-shorting constraint. Recognizing the structure of a piecewise quadratic value function, we prove that the optimal portfolio policy is piecewise linear with respect to the current wealth level, and derive the semi-analytical expression of the piecewise quadratic value function. One prominent feature of our findings is the identification of a deterministic time-varying threshold for the wealth process and its implications for market settings. We also generalize our results in the mean–variance formulation to utility maximization with no-shorting constraint.     

Equilibrium in an ambiguity-averse mean–variance investors market

In a financial market composed of n risky assets and a riskless asset, where short sales are allowed and mean–variance investors can be ambiguity averse, i.e., diffident about mean return estimates where confidence is represented using ellipsoidal uncertainty sets, we derive a closed form portfolio rule based on a worst case max–min criterion. Then, in a market where all investors are ambiguity-averse mean–variance investors with access to given mean return and variance–covariance estimates, we investigate conditions regarding the existence of an equilibrium price system and give an explicit formula for the equilibrium prices. In addition to the usual equilibrium properties that continue to hold in our case, we show that the diffidence of investors in a homogeneously diffident (with bounded diffidence) mean–variance investors’ market has a deflationary effect on equilibrium prices with respect to a pure mean–variance investors’ market in equilibrium. Deflationary pressure on prices may also occur if one of the investors (in an ambiguity-neutral market) with no initial short position decides to adopt an ambiguity-averse attitude. We also establish a CAPM-like property that reduces to the classical CAPM in case all investors are ambiguity-neutral.     

Theoretical and empirical estimates of mean–variance portfolio sensitivity

This paper studies properties of an estimator of mean–variance portfolio weights in a market model with multiple risky assets and a riskless asset. Theoretical formulas for the mean square error are derived in the case when asset excess returns are multivariate normally distributed and serially independent. The sensitivity of the portfolio estimator to errors arising from the estimation of the covariance matrix and the mean vector is quantified. It turns out that the relative contribution of the covariance matrix error depends mainly on the Sharpe ratio of the market portfolio and the sampling frequency of historical data. Theoretical studies are complemented by an investigation of the distribution of portfolio estimator for empirical datasets. An appropriately crafted bootstrapping method is employed to compute the empirical mean square error. Empirical and theoretical estimates are in good agreement, with the empirical values being, in general, higher.     

Near-optimal mean–variance controls under two-time-scale formulations and applications

Although the mean–variance control was initially formulated for financial portfolio management problems in which one wants to maximize the expected return and control the risk, our motivations stem from highway vehicle platoon controls that aim to maximize highway utility while ensuring zero accident. This paper develops near-optimal mean–variance controls of switching diffusion systems. To reduce the computational complexity, with motivations from earlier work on singularly perturbed Markovian systems [Sethi and Zhang, Hierarchical Decision Making in Stochastic Manufacturing Systems, Birkhäuser, Boston, MA, 1994; Yin and Zhang, Continuous-Time Markov Chains and Applications: A Singular Pertubation Approach, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1998 and Yin et al., Ann. Appl. Probab. 10 (2000), pp. 549–572], we use a two-time-scale formulation to treat the underlying system, which is represented by the use of a small parameter. As the small parameter goes to 0, we obtain a limit problem. Using the limit problem as a guide, we construct controls for the original problem, and show that the control so constructed is nearly optimal.     

Optimality of excess-loss reinsurance under a mean–variance criterion

In this paper, we study an insurer’s reinsurance–investment problem under a mean–variance criterion. We show that excess-loss is the unique equilibrium reinsurance strategy under a spectrally negative Lévy insurance model when the reinsurance premium is computed according to the expected value premium principle. Furthermore, we obtain the explicit equilibrium reinsurance–investment strategy by solving the extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation.     

Nonstationary denumerable state Markov decision processes – with average variance criterion

In this paper, we consider the nonstationary Markov decision processes (MDP, for short) with average variance criterion on a countable state space, finite action spaces and bounded one-step rewards. From the optimality equations which are provided in this paper, we translate the average variance criterion into a new average expected cost criterion. Then we prove that there exists a Markov policy, which is optimal in an original average expected reward criterion, that minimizies the average variance in the class of optimal policies for the original average expected reward criterion.     

Time consistent behavioral portfolio policy for dynamic mean–variance formulation

When one considers an optimal portfolio policy under a mean-risk formulation, it is essential to correctly model investors’ risk aversion which may be time variant or even state dependent. In this paper, we propose a behavioral risk aversion model, in which risk aversion is a piecewise linear function of the current excess wealth level with a reference point at the discounted investment target (either surplus or shortage), to reflect a behavioral pattern with both house money and break-even effects. Due to the time inconsistency of the resulting multi-period mean–variance model with adaptive risk aversion, we investigate the time consistent behavioral portfolio policy by solving a nested mean–variance game formulation. We derive a semi-analytical time consistent behavioral portfolio policy which takes a piecewise linear feedback form of the current excess wealth level with respect to the discounted investment target. Finally, we extend the above results to time consistent behavioral portfolio selection for dynamic mean–variance formulation with a cone constraint.     

The opportunity cost of mean–variance choice under estimation risk

Mean–variance portfolio choice is often criticized as sub-optimal in the more general expected utility framework. It is argued that the expected utility framework takes into consideration higher moments ignored by mean variance analysis. A body of research suggests that mean–variance choice, though arguably sub-optimal, provides very close-to-expected utility maximizing portfolios and their expected utilities, basing its evaluation on in-sample analysis where mean–variance choice is sub-optimal by definition. In order to clarify this existing research, this study provides a framework that allows comparing in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the mean variance portfolios against expected utility maximizing portfolios. Our in-sample results confirm the results of earlier studies. On the other hand, our out-of-sample results show that the expected utility model performs worse. The out-of-sample inferiority of the expected utility model is more pronounced for preferences and constraints under which in-sample mean variance approximations are weakest. We argue that, in addition to its elegance and simplicity, the mean–variance model extracts more information from sample data because it uses the covariance matrix of returns. The expected utility model may reach its optimal solution without using information from the covariance matrix.     

Stochastic Stackelberg differential reinsurance games under time-inconsistent mean–variance framework

We study optimal reinsurance in the framework of stochastic Stackelberg differential game, in which an insurer and a reinsurer are the two players, and more specifically are considered as the follower and the leader of the Stackelberg game, respectively. An optimal reinsurance policy is determined by the Stackelberg equilibrium of the game, consisting of an optimal reinsurance strategy chosen by the insurer and an optimal reinsurance premium strategy by the reinsurer. Both the insurer and the reinsurer aim to maximize their respective mean–variance cost functionals. To overcome the time-inconsistency issue in the game, we formulate the optimization problem of each player as an embedded game and solve it via a corresponding extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. It is found that the Stackelberg equilibrium can be achieved by the pair of a variance reinsurance premium principle and a proportional reinsurance treaty, or that of an expected value reinsurance premium principle and an excess-of-loss reinsurance treaty. Moreover, the former optimal reinsurance policy is determined by a unique, model-free Stackelberg equilibrium; the latter one, though exists, may be non-unique and model-dependent, and depend on the tail behavior of the claim-size distribution to be more specific. Our numerical analysis provides further support for necessity of integrating the insurer and the reinsurer into a unified framework. In this regard, the stochastic Stackelberg differential reinsurance game proposed in this paper is a good candidate to achieve this goal.