Mathematical modelling on harmful algal blooms in the presence of toxic substances

Effect of toxin producing plankton and its control is an intriguing problem in marine plankton ecology. In this paper we have proposed a three-component model consisting of a non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP), toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP) and zooplankton (Z), where the growth of zooplankton species reduce due to toxic chemicals released by phytoplankton species. It is observed that the three components persist if the predation rate of zooplankton population on toxic phytoplankton is bounded in certain regions. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Short-term recurrent chaos and role of Toxin Producing Phytoplankton (TPP) on chaotic dynamics in aquatic systems

We propose a new mathematical model for aquatic populations. This model incorporates mutual interference in all the three populations and an extra mortality term in zooplankton population and also taking into account the toxin liberation process of TPP population. The proposed model generalizes several other known models in the literature. The principal interest in this paper is in a numerical study of the model’s behaviour. It is observed that both types of food chains display same type of chaotic behaviour, short-term recurrent chaos, with different generating mechanisms. Toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP) reduces the grazing pressure of zooplankton. To observe the role of TPP, we consider Holling types I, II and III functional forms for this process. Our study suggests that toxic substances released by TPP population may act as bio-control by changing the state of chaos to order and extinction.     

A delay model for viral infection in toxin producing phytoplankton and zooplankton system

An eco-epidemiological delay model is proposed and analysed for virally infected, toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP) and zooplankton system. It is shown that time delay can destabilize the otherwise stable non-zero equilibrium state. The coexistence of all species is possible through periodic solutions due to Hopf bifurcation. In the absence of infection the delay model may have a complex dynamical behavior which can be controlled by infection. Numerical simulation suggests that the proposed model displays a wide range of dynamical behaviors. Different parameters are identified that are responsible for chaos.     

A simple mathematical model for seasonal planktonic blooms

We show how the inclusion of the defense strategy by different species can alter the prediction of simple models. One of the defense strategy by the phytoplankton population against their grazer is the release of toxic chemicals. In turn the zooplankton population reduces there predation rate over toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP) to protect themselves from those toxic chemicals. Thus, when the level of toxicity is high, the grazing pressure is low and when the level of toxicity is low or when the toxin is absent, the grazing pressure is high. Here we have considered a TPP–zooplankton system where the rate of toxin liberation and the predation rate vary with zooplankton abundance. We observe that our proposed model has the potential to show different dynamical behaviour that are similar to that seen in real‐world situations. Further, we consider three different functional forms for the distribution of the toxins and compare them using latin hypercube sampling technique and found that the functional forms seem to have no effect in determining the final outcome of the system. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Role of toxin producing phytoplankton on a plankton ecosystem

In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to study the role of toxin producing phytoplankton on a phytoplankton–zooplankton system with nutrient cycling. The model includes three state variables, viz., nutrient concentration, phytoplankton biomass and zooplankton biomass. It is assumed in the model that phytoplankton biomass is producing toxicant harmful for the zooplankton biomass. All the feasible equilibria of the system are obtained and the conditions for the existence of the interior equilibrium are determined. The local stability analysis of all the feasible equilibria are carried out and the possibility of Hopf-bifurcation of the interior equilibrium is studied. The threshold value in terms of constant input rate of nutrient is determined both analytically and numerically.     

Delay driven Hopf bifurcation and chaos in a diffusive toxin producing phytoplankton‐zooplankton model

This paper deals with a diffusive toxin producing phytoplankton‐zooplankton model with maturation delay. By analyzing eigenvalues of the characteristic equation associated with delay parameter, the stability of the positive equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are studied. Explicit results are derived for the properties of bifurcating periodic solutions by means of the normal form theory and the center manifold reduction for partial functional differential equations. Numerical simulations not only agree with the theoretical analysis but also exhibit the complex behaviors such as the period‐3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, and 12 solutions, cascade of period‐doubling bifurcation in period‐2, 4, quasi‐periodic solutions, and chaos. The key observation is that time delay may control harmful algae blooms (HABs). Moreover, numerical simulations show that the chaotic states induced by the period‐doubling bifurcation are purely temporal, which is stationary in space and oscillatory in time. The investigations may provide some new insights on harmful phytoplankton blooms.     

A space-time state-space model of phytoplankton allelopathy

An integro-differential equation system with nonlocal effects of interspecific allelopathic interaction has been studied to investigate the formation of spatio-temporal structures in toxin producing phytoplankton population. The model is inherently more realistic than the usual kind of reaction-diffusion model. Bifurcation from uniform steady-state solution has been examined. Evolution of steady-state spatially periodic structure and periodic standing waves have been studied. The model helps to investigate the blooms, pulses and succession in different patches of phytoplankton population. Numerical simulations for a hypothetical set of parameter values and experimental observations have been presented to substantiate the analytical findings.     

Dynamical analysis of toxin producing Phytoplankton–Zooplankton interactions

In the present paper we consider a toxin producing phytoplankton–zooplankton model in which the toxin liberation by phytoplankton species follows a discrete time variation. Firstly we consider the elementary dynamical properties of the toxic-phytoplankton–zooplankton interacting model system in absence of time delay. Then we establish the existence of local Hopf-bifurcation as the time delay crosses a threshold value and also prove the existence of stability switching phenomena. Explicit results are derived for stability and direction of the bifurcating periodic orbit by using normal form theory and center manifold arguments. Global existence of periodic orbits is also established by using a global Hopf-bifurcation theorem. Finally, the basic outcomes are mentioned along with numerical results to provide some support to the analytical findings.     

Stochastic modeling of phytoplankton allelopathy

The study of dynamic interactions between two competing phytoplankton species in the presence of toxic substances is an active field of research due to the global increase of harmful phytoplankton blooms. Ordinary differential equation models for two competing phytoplankton species, when one or both the species liberate toxic substances, are unable to capture the oscillatory and highly variable growth of phytoplankton populations. The deterministic formulation never predicts the sudden localized extinction of certain species. These obstacles of mathematical modeling can be overcome if we include stochastic variability in our modeling approach. In this investigation, we construct stochastic models of allelopathic interactions between two competing phytoplankton species as a continuous time Markov chain model as well as an Itô stochastic differential equation model. Approximate extinction probabilities for both species are obtained analytically for the continuous time Markov chain model. Analytical estimates are validated with the help of numerical simulations.     

具有时滞和毒素系统的动力学分析

In this paper, a toxin producing phytoplankton-zooplankton model with inhibitory substrate and time delay is investigated. A discrete time delay is induced to both of the consume response function and distribution of toxic substance term. Moreover, Tissiet type function is used for zooplankton grazing to account for the effect of toxication by the TPP population. The conditions to guarantee the coexistence of two species and stability of coexistence equilibrium are given. In particular, we show that there exist critical values of the delay parameters below which the coexistence equilibrium is stable and above which it is unstable. Hopf bifurcation occurs when the delay parameters cross their critical values. Some numerical simulations are executed to validate the analytical findings.     

Bottom up and top down effect on toxin producing phytoplankton and its consequence on the formation of plankton bloom

We consider a plankton-nutrient interaction model consisting of phytoplankton, zooplankton and dissolved limiting nutrient with general nutrient uptake functions and instantaneous nutrient recycling. In this model, it is assumed that phytoplankton releases toxic chemical for self defense against their predators. The model system is studied analytically and the threshold values for the existence and stability of various steady states are worked out. It is observed that if the maximal zooplankton conversion rate crosses a certain critical value, the system enters into Hopf bifurcation. Finally it is observed that to control the planktonic bloom and to maintain stability around the coexistence equilibrium we have to control the nutrient input rate specially caused by artificial eutrophication. In case if it is not possible to control the nutrient input rate, one could use toxic phytoplankton to prevent the recurrence bloom.     

Nonlinear modelling of the interaction between phytoplankton and zooplankton with the impulsive feedback control

In this paper, a mathematical model including the phytoplankton and zooplankton with the impulsive feedback control is presented. The sufficient conditions for the existence of the order-1 and order-2 periodic solutions are obtained by using the geometrical theory of semi-continuous dynamic system. The stability of the order-1 periodic solution is discussed by the analogue of the Poincaré criterion. Finally, our results are justified by the numerical simulations.     

Impact of noise in a phytoplankton-zooplankton system

In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a delayed toxic phytoplankton-two zooplankton system incorporating the effects of Levy noise and white noise. The value of this study lies in two aspects: Mathematically, we first prove the existence of a unique global positive solution of the system, and then we investigate the sufficient conditions that guarantee the stochastic extinction and persistence in the mean of each population. Ecologically, via numerical simulations, we find that the effect of white noise or Levy noise on the stochastic extinction and persistence of phytoplankton and zooplankton are similar, but the synergistic effects of the two noises on the stochastic extinction and persistence of these plankton are stronger than that of single noise. In addition, an increase in the toxin liberation rate or the intraspecific competition rate of zooplankton was found to be capable to increase the biomass of the phytoplankton but decrease the biomass of zooplankton. These results may help us to better understand the phytoplankton-zooplankton dynamics in the fluctuating environments.     

Nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton models with a toxin

Models of nutrient-plankton interaction with a toxic substance that inhibits either the growth rate of phytoplankton, zooplankton or both trophic levels are proposed and studied. For simplicity, it is assumed that both nutrient and the toxin have the same constant input and washout rate as the chemostat system. The effects of the toxin upon the existence, magnitude, and stability of the steady states are examined. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the system can have multiple attractors when the phytoplankton’s nutrient uptake rate is inhibited by the toxin.     

Modeling and analysis of a marine plankton system with nutrient recycling and diffusion

This article describes a nutrient‐phytoplankton‐zooplankton system with nutrient recycling in the presence of toxicity. We have studied the dynamical behavior of the system with delayed nutrient recycling in the first part of the article. Uniform persistent of the system is examined. In the second part of the article, we have incorporated diffusion of the plankton population to the system and dynamical behavior of the system is analyzed with instantaneous nutrient recycling. The condition of the diffusion driven instability is obtained. The conditions for the occurrence of Hopf and Turing bifurcation critical line in a spatial domain are derived. Variation of the system with small periodicity of diffusive coefficient has been studied. Stability condition of the plankton system subject to the periodic diffusion coefficient of the zooplankton is derived. It is observed that nutrient‐phytoplankton‐zooplankton interactions are very complex and situation specific. Moreover, we have obtained different exciting results, ranging from stable situation to cyclic oscillatory behavior may occur under different favorable conditions, which may give some insights for predictive management. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 229–241, 2015     

Chaos in a seasonally and periodically forced phytoplankton–zooplankton system

The effect of seasonality and periodicity on plankton dynamics is investigated. Periodic variations are added to two different parameters of the plankton ecosystem: the growth rate of phytoplankton and the death rate of the zooplankton. The dynamic behaviors of the system is simulated numerically. A variety of complex population dynamics including chaos, quasi-periodicity, and periodic resonance are obtained. Our result reinforces the conjecture that seasonality and periodicity are crucial to plankton dynamics.     

MODELING NUTRIENT (DISSOLVED INORGANIC NITROGEN) AND PLANKTON DYNAMICS AT SAGAR ISLAND OF HOOGHLY–MATLA ESTUARINE SYSTEM,WEST BENGAL,INDIA

Abstract Degradation of litter from mangrove forests adjacent to the creeks at Sagar Island of the Hooghly–Matla estuarine ecosystem is one of the principal sources of nutrient to the estuary. Nutrients augment the growth of phytoplankton, which in turn stimulates the production of zooplankton. Zooplankton serves as major food source for fish population of this estuarine system. Here, a dynamic model with three state variables (nutrient, phytoplankton, and zooplankton) is proposed using nitrogen (mgN/l) as currency. Input of dissolved inorganic nitrogen as nutrient, water temperature, surface solar irradiance, and salinity of upstream and downstream of the estuary, collected from the field, are incorporated as graph time functions in the model. Calibration and validation are performed by using collected data of two consecutive years. Model results indicate that the growth of zooplankton and phytoplankton are enhanced by increase in nutrient input in the system. Zooplankton biomass is affected by decrease in the salinity of the estuary. Sensitivity analysis results at ±10% indicate that maximum growth rate of phytoplankton (P_max) is the most sensitive parameter to the nutrient pool although growth rate of zooplankton (g_z) and half saturation constant for phytoplankton grazing by zooplankton (K_z) are most sensitive parameters to phytoplankton and zooplankton compartments, respectively. The model depicts the present status of plankton dynamics, which serve as major food resource for herbivorous and carnivorous fish species of the estuary. Effect of deforestation is tested in the model. Therefore, from management perspective, this model can be used to predict the impact of mangroves on nutrient and plankton dynamics, which will give complete information of both shell and fin fish productions in the estuary.     

Plankton growth dynamic driven by plankton body size in deterministic and stochastic environments

In this paper, we establish a new phytoplankton–zooplankton model by considering the effects of plankton body size and stochastic environmental fluctuations. Mathematical theory work mainly gives the existence of boundary and positive equilibria and shows their local as well as global stability in the deterministic model. Additionally, we explore the dynamics of V-geometric ergodicity, stochastic ultimate boundedness, stochastic permanence, persistence in the mean, stochastic extinction, and the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution in the corresponding stochastic version. Numerical simulation work mainly reveals that plankton body size can generate great influences on the interactions between phytoplankton and zooplankton, which in turn proves the effectiveness of mathematical theory analysis. It is worth emphasizing that for the small value of phytoplankton cell size, the increase of zooplankton body size can not change the phytoplankton density or zooplankton density; for the middle value of phytoplankton cell size, the increase of zooplankton body size can decrease zooplankton density or phytoplankton density; for the large value of phytoplankton cell size, the increase of zooplankton body size can increase zooplankton density but decrease phytoplankton density. Besides, it should be noted that the increase of zooplankton body size cannot affect the effect of random environmental disturbance, while the increase of phytoplankton cell size can weaken its effect. There results may enrich the dynamics of phytoplankton-zooplankton models.     

Effect of toxic substance on delayed competitive allelopathic phytoplankton system with varying parameters through stability and bifurcation analysis

We have studied the combined effect of toxicant and fluctuation of the biological parameters on the dynamical behaviors of a delayed two-species competitive system with imprecise biological parameters. Due to the global increase of harmful phytoplankton blooms, the study of dynamic interactions between two competing phytoplankton species in the presence of toxic substances is an active field of research now days. The ordinary mathematical formulation of models for two competing phytoplankton species, when one or both the species liberate toxic substances, is unable to capture the oscillatory and highly variable growth of phytoplankton populations. The deterministic model never predicts the sudden localized behavior of certain species. These obstacles of mathematical modeling can be overcomed if we include interval variability of biological parameters in our modeling approach. In this investigation, we construct imprecise models of allelopathic interactions between two competing phytoplankton species as a parametric differential equation model. We incorporate the effect of toxicant on the species in two different cases known as toxic inhibition and toxic stimulatory system. We have discussed the existence of various equilibrium points and stability of the system at these equilibrium points. In case of toxic stimulatory system, the delay model exhibits a stable limit cycle oscillation. Analytical findings are supported through exhaustive numerical simulations.     

System dynamics of euthrophication processes in lakes

Eutrophication is the phenomenon observed in the bodies of water that receive large influxes of nutrients due to agricultural runoff or urban waste disposal. It is characterized by blooms of either green or blue-green algae (often noxious smelling) and by a drastic reduction in dissolved oxygen and often makes it impossible for many species of fish and zooplankton to live in the water. The objective was to examine the effects of eutrophication on plankton seasonal dynamics. Simulation models have been used primary tool in the study of eutrophication in lakes. Many eutrophication models have been developed both to predict the effect of nutrient additions on lake biota and to examine how effective various nutrient diversions alternatives might be improved water quality. Systems dynamics was studied using the model, which is expressed as a series of four differential equations as its state variables for the rates of change of phytoplankton, zooplankton, nitrogen and phosphorus. Influence of the phosphorus concentration on eutrophication was treated and studied as the one of the most important process in the lake ecosystem.