ARCH过程的均值变点估计

研究ARCH过程的均值变点估计.在较弱的条件下证明了变点估计的一致性,并得到了估计的收敛率;为构造变点的置信区间给出了变点的极限分布.模拟结果表明方法的有效性.     

ARCH模型的多变点检验

研究自回归条件异方差(ARCH)模型的多变点检验问题.提出一种拟似然比检验统计量,并在原假设下给出统计量的极限分布.在假设检验过程中得到变点个数的一致估计.数值模拟与实例分析说明了方法的合理性.     

中国股市短期波动的非线性ARCH效应显著性分析及参数估计

中国股票市场受政治或其它因素的影响有自己的波动特点。本文利用拉格朗日乘子,选择不同的频率检验中国股票市场短期的ARCH效应的显著性,并用FGLS四步法进行非线性估计。结果表明:中国股票市场在选择适当的频率下,短期的ARCH效应是显著的,对于研究中国股票市场的成熟度,预测股票短期投资风险,规范中国股票市场发展等具有重要的意义。     

Tail dependence of random variables from ARCH and heavy-tailed bilinear models

Discussed in this paper is the dependent structure in the tails of distributions of random variables from some heavy-tailed stationary nonlinear time series. One class of models discussed is the first-order autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) process introduced by Engle (1982). The other class is the simple first-order bilinear models driven by heavy-tailed innovations. We give some explicit formulas for the asymptotic values of conditional probabilities used for measuring the tail dependence between two random variables from these models. Our results have significant meanings in finance.     

Testing for parameter constancy in GARCH() models

We propose a test for a change in the parameters of a GARCH(p,q) model. The test is based on approximate likelihood scores and does not require the observations to have finite variance. We show that the test has asymptotically correct size under weak assumptions on model errors.     

Testing for the Mean of Random Curves: A Penalization Approach

Let X ₁,...,X _n be an i.i.d. sample of random curves, viewed as Hilbert space valued random elements, with mean curve m. An asymptotic test of m = m ₀ vs m ≠ m ₀ is proposed, when m ₀ is a fixed known function. The test statistics converges under very mild assumptions and relies on the pseudo-inversion of the covariance operator (leading to a non standard inverse problem). The power against local alternatives is investigated. In final form November 2004     

Power transformation and threshold modeling for ARCH innovations with applications to tests for ARCH structure

A new class of power-transformed threshold ARCH models is proposed as a threshold-asymmetric generalization of the nonlinear ARCH considered by Higgins and Bera [Internat. Econom. Rev. 33 (1992) 137]. This class is rich enough to include diverse nonlinear and nonsymmetric ARCH models which have been spelled out in the literature. Geometric ergodicity of the model and existence of stationary moments are studied. The model facilitates discussing ARCH structures and hence large sample tests for ARCH structures are investigated via local asymptotic normality approach. Semiparametric tests are also discussed for the case when the error density is unknown.     

Testing for the maximum cell probabilities in multinomial distributions

This paper investigates one-sided hypotheses testing for p, the largest cell probability of multinomial distribution. A small sample test of Ethier (1982) is extended to the general cases. Based on an estimator of p, a kind of large sample tests is proposed. The asymptotic power of the above tests under local alternatives is derived. An example is presented at the end of this paper.     

ARCH类模型研究及其在沪市A股中的应用

本文主要介绍ARCH(AutoregressiveConditionalHeteroskedasticity)模型、GARCH模型和E GARCH模型 ,分析这些模型的特点和适用范围 ,并在模型中引入t分布取代正态分布假设 ,最后利用这些模型对上证指数进行了实证分析。     

ARCH模型的影响分析

本文对一般线性 ARCH(m )模型 ,进行局部影响分析 ,给出了局部影响的曲率度量 .求出了相应的最大影响方向