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1.
从停止损失序的角度,探讨了用集体风险模型来近似个体风险模型时,随机风险理赔总额S的一般情况,我们推广现有文献(如Goovaerfs)的关于单因模型的结果,得到了各模型间S的序的关系(定理1),并给出了各模型S之间的误差公式(定理3).  相似文献   

2.
本文首先简要介绍了停止损失序在风险期望值相等时的一些推论 ,然后借助停止损失序详尽地讨论了仅取有限个值的随机变量的格点化 ,并以此作为出发点在多重衰减模型的框架下 ,给出了以 Poisson复合模型近似个体风险模型的一般步骤 ,同时导出了评价这一近似优劣程度的一个数量指标的解析表达式。  相似文献   

3.
停止损失限额变换与保险风险比较(英文)   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
本文讨论了停止损失限额次序、凸次序、随机控制之间的关系,建立了风险集合与停止损失限额变换集合之间的一一对应.应用停止损失限额变换的性质证明了停止损失限额分离定理,并修正了AlfredMuller在此定理证明中的一个错误.  相似文献   

4.
在商业、工业、电力和房地产等行业中存在许多复杂的多周期风险决策问题,它的数学模型研究对于解决这些问题具有重要的作用.作者建立了一种新的多周期多目标条件风险值(CVaR)数学模型理论和方法.先定义了一种带时间段的多周期多目标损失函数下的α-VaR和α-CVaR值,给出了一类多周期多目标CVaR最优化模型.然后,证明了多目标意义下的对应模型的等价定理,给出了多周期多目标CVaR模型的近似求解等价模型.最后,建立了一种生产企业在供过于求和供不应求两种情形下产生的多周期双目标CVaR模型,针对一个电力生产企业进行的数值实验,表明了模型可以得到在最小供给的用电损失分布下的各周期下的相匹配供电策略,可以帮助供电部门各个时期供电不平衡状况下的风险控制.  相似文献   

5.
增长曲线模型中一致最小风险无偏估计的存在性   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
考虑协方差阵任意,或具有均匀协方差结构,或具有序列协方差结构的正态增长曲线模型本文将文[19]在设计矩阵满秩,且仅估计回归系数矩阵的情形获得的结果推广到设计矩阵不必列满秩,且同时估计回归系数矩阵的线性可估函数和协方差阵(或有关参数)的情形;在凸损失函数类和矩阵损失函数下,给出存在一致最小风险无偏估计的充分必要条件.  相似文献   

6.
李睿 《经济数学》2012,(3):70-73
重点讨论了索赔次数服从于二项分布的情况下单个险种和多个险种的聚合风险模型,得出了在此情况下求其分布函数的若干方法,并给出聚合理赔量的两种近似模型,正态近似和平移伽马近似.最后给出了一个数值例子,验证了本文的分布函数的若干求法.  相似文献   

7.
本文指出平移利率模型的风险市价是到期时间的线形函数并证明了平移利率模型是一种特殊的简单Gaussian利率模型.同时,文章还给出了简单Gaussian利率模型即期利率的条件概率分布.  相似文献   

8.
更新模型中的Schmitter问题   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Schmitter问题是指在期望和方差固定的条件下,求出使得破产概率最大(小)的索赔分布,F.De Vylder讨论了古典风险模型的情况,本文讨论了更新风险模型的情况,推广了其结果。  相似文献   

9.
相依回归模型的参数估计的风险估计   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
本文给出了相依回归模型的OLS估计,GLS估计和RGLS估计在二次损失和Fisher损失下的风险估计不等式。  相似文献   

10.
陈金龙 《运筹与管理》2004,13(5):121-126
资产价格具有跳跃特征时,衍生于该资产的期权就不能利用传统的Black-Schoels公式进行定价。本主要研究基于Poisson过程和固定跳跃Merton模型的期权定价与风险对冲问题,利用e-套利定价法,得到期权的风险对冲策略所满足的偏微分方程和近似期权定价。  相似文献   

11.
范琪  秦学志  王麟  宋宇 《运筹与管理》2020,29(2):161-165
在当今金融市场资产价格高波动的背景下,度量投资组合中各资产对总体风险的风险贡献度对探析投资组合风险波动不定的深层次原因有重要意义。关于风险贡献度的测算,目前运用较广泛的是历史数据法,其主要适用于存在大量数据样本且持续期较短的情况。特别地,极端情况下的风险贡献度估计主要由处于分布尾部的少量观测值决定,因此历史数据法估计的准确性此时较难保证,为此,本文对鞍点逼近模型优化并考察上述情形。通过对中国股市进行实证分析发现,与传统历史数据法相比,鞍点逼近模型呈现下列优点:投资组合分布函数简洁、风险贡献度计算效率和准确性较高,压力测试表明该方法具有较好的稳健性。因此该方法有望对投资组合的风险预警与防范起到决策支持作用。  相似文献   

12.
Empirical likelihood inference for parametric and nonparametric parts in functional coefficient ARCH-M models is investigated in this paper. Firstly, the kernel smoothing technique is used to estimate coefficient function δ(x). In this way we obtain an estimated function with parameter β.Secondly, the empirical likelihood method is developed to estimate the parameter β. An estimated empirical log-likelohood ratio is proved to be asymptotically standard chi-squred, and the maximum empirical likelihood estimation(MELE) for β is shown to be asymptotically normal. Finally, based on the MELE of β, the empirical likelihood approach is again applied to reestimate the nonparametric part δ(x). The empirical log-likelohood ratio for δ(x) is proved to be also asymptotically standard chi-squred. Simulation study shows that the proposed method works better than the normal approximation method in terms of average areas of confidence regions for β, and the empirical likelihood confidence belt for δ(x) performs well.  相似文献   

13.
We consider the problem of minimizing the probability of ruin by purchasing reinsurance whose premium is computed according to the mean–variance premium principle, a combination of the expected-value and variance premium principles. We derive closed-form expressions of the optimal reinsurance strategy and the corresponding minimum probability of ruin under the diffusion approximation of the classical Cramér–Lundberg risk process perturbed by a diffusion. We find an explicit expression for the reinsurance strategy that maximizes the adjustment coefficient for the classical risk process perturbed by a diffusion. Also, for this risk process, we use stochastic Perron’s method to prove that the minimum probability of ruin is the unique viscosity solution of its Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation with appropriate boundary conditions. Finally, we prove that, under an appropriate scaling of the classical risk process, the minimum probability of ruin converges to the minimum probability of ruin under the diffusion approximation.  相似文献   

14.
Recently distortion risk measure has been an interesting tool for the insurer to reflect its attitude toward risk when forming the optimal reinsurance strategy. Under the distortion risk measure, this paper discusses the reinsurance design with unbinding premium constraint and the ceded loss function in a general feasible region which requiring the retained loss function to be increasing and left-continuous. Explicit solution of the optimal reinsurance strategy is obtained by introducing a premium-adjustment function. Our result has the form of layer reinsurance with the mixture of normal reinsurance strategies in each layer. Finally, to illustrate the applicability of our results, we derive the optimal reinsurance solutions with premium constraint under two special distortion risk measures—VaR and TVaR.  相似文献   

15.
We study the discrete optimization problem under the distributionally robust framework. We optimize the Entropic Value-at-Risk, which is a coherent risk measure and is also known as Bernstein approximation for the chance constraint. We propose an efficient approximation algorithm to resolve the problem via solving a sequence of nominal problems. The computational results show that the number of nominal problems required to be solved is small under various distributional information sets.  相似文献   

16.
This paper employs a multivariate extreme value theory (EVT) approach to study the limit distribution of the loss of a general credit portfolio with low default probabilities. A latent variable model is employed to quantify the credit portfolio loss, where both heavy tails and tail dependence of the latent variables are realized via a multivariate regular variation (MRV) structure. An approximation formula to implement our main result numerically is obtained. Intensive simulation experiments are conducted, showing that this approximation formula is accurate for relatively small default probabilities, and that our approach is superior to a copula-based approach in reducing model risk.  相似文献   

17.
肖辉 《经济数学》2012,(3):27-31
基于市场需求是随机的,并且在进行市场销售前,就要确定每个阶段的生产数量的背景下,建立了具有规避风险的多阶段库存凸随机规划模型.该模型以最小化损失函数的期望值为目标函数,以规避风险为约束条件,以价值风险(VaR)和条件价值风险(CVaR)为风险度量;采用样本平均近似方法(SAA)求解该模型,并分析样本平均近似方法的收敛性;最后,给出数值结果.  相似文献   

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