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1.
Chaotic phenomena, chaos amplification and other interesting nonlinear behaviors have been observed in supply chain systems. Chaos can be defined theoretically if the dynamics under study are produced only by deterministic factors. However, deterministic settings rarely present themselves in reality. In fact, real data are typically unknown. How can the chaos theory and its related methodology be applied in the real world? When the demand is stochastic, the interpretation and distribution of the Lyapunov exponents derived from the effective inventory at different supply chain levels are not similar to those under deterministic demand settings. Are the observed dynamics of the effective inventory random, chaotic, or simply quasi-chaos? In this study, we investigate a situation whereby the chaos analysis is applied to a time series as if its underlying structure, deterministic or stochastic, is unknown. The result shows clear distinction in chaos characterization between the two categories of demand process, deterministic vs. stochastic. It also highlights the complexity of the interplay between stochastic demand processes and nonlinear dynamics. Therefore, caution should be exercised in interpreting system dynamics when applying chaos analysis to a system of unknown underlying structure. By understanding this delicate interplay, decision makers have the better chance to tackle the problem correctly or more effectively at the demand end or the supply end.  相似文献   

2.
In this paper we study mathematically and computationally optimal control problems for stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. The control objective is to minimize the expectation of a tracking cost functional, and the control is of the deterministic, distributed type. The main analytical tool is the Wiener-Itô chaos or the Karhunen-Loève expansion. Mathematically, we prove the existence of an optimal solution; we establish the validity of the Lagrange multiplier rule and obtain a stochastic optimality system of equations; we represent the input data in their Wiener-Itô chaos expansions and deduce the deterministic optimality system of equations. Computationally, we approximate the optimality system through the discretizations of the probability space and the spatial space by the finite element method; we also derive error estimates in terms of both types of discretizations.  相似文献   

3.
Stochastic chaos discussed here means a kind of chaotic responses in a Duffing oscillator with bounded random parameters under harmonic excitations. A system with random parameters is usually called a stochastic system. The modifier ‘stochastic’ here implies dependent on some random parameter. As the system itself is stochastic, so is the response, even under harmonic excitations alone. In this paper stochastic chaos and its control are verified by the top Lyapunov exponent of the system. A non-feedback control strategy is adopted here by adding an adjustable noisy phase to the harmonic excitation, so that the control can be realized by adjusting the noise level. It is found that by this control strategy stochastic chaos can be tamed down to the small neighborhood of a periodic trajectory or an equilibrium state. In the analysis the stochastic Duffing oscillator is first transformed into an equivalent deterministic nonlinear system by the Gegenbauer polynomial approximation, so that the problem of controlling stochastic chaos can be reduced into the problem of controlling deterministic chaos in the equivalent system. Then the top Lyapunov exponent of the equivalent system is obtained by Wolf’s method to examine the chaotic behavior of the response. Numerical simulations show that the random phase control strategy is an effective way to control stochastic chaos.  相似文献   

4.
Evolving to the edge of chaos: Chance or necessity?   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
We show that ecological systems evolve to edges of chaos (EOC). This has been demonstrated by analyzing three diverse model ecosystems using numerical simulations in combination with analytical procedures. It has been found that all these systems reside on EOC and display short-term recurrent chaos (strc). The first two are non-linear food chains and the third one is a linear food chain. The dynamics of first two is dictated by deterministic changes in system parameters. In contrast to this, dynamics of the third model system (the linear food chain) is governed by both deterministic changes in system parameters as well as exogenous stochastic perturbations (unforeseen changes in initial conditions) of these dynamical systems.  相似文献   

5.
Darran Furnival We study multigrid for solving the stochastic steady-state diffusionproblem. We operate under the mild assumption that the diffusioncoefficient takes the form of a finite Karhunen-Loèveexpansion. The problem is discretized using a finite-elementmethodology using the polynomial chaos method to discretizethe stochastic part of the problem. We apply a multigrid algorithmto the stochastic problem in which the spatial discretizationis varied from grid to grid while the stochastic discretizationis held constant. We then show, theoretically and experimentally,that the convergence rate is independent of the spatial discretization,as in the deterministic case, and the stochastic discretization.  相似文献   

6.
The chaotic dynamics of a micro mechanical resonator with electrostatic forces on both sides is investigated. Using the Melnikov function, an analytical criterion for homoclinic chaos in the form of an inequality is written in terms of the system parameters. Detailed numerical studies including phase portrait, Poincare map and bifurcation diagram confirm the analytical prediction and reveal the effect of excitation amplitude on the system transition to chaos. Moreover a robust adaptive fuzzy control algorithm previously proposed by the authors is applied for controlling the chaotic motion. Additional numerical simulations show the effectiveness of the proposed control approach.  相似文献   

7.
In the paper, we apply the generalized polynomial chaos expansion and spectral methods to the Burgers equation with a random perturbation on its left boundary condition. Firstly, the stochastic Galerkin method combined with the Legendre–Galerkin Chebyshev collocation scheme is adopted, which means that the original equation is transformed to the deterministic nonlinear equations by the stochastic Galerkin method and the Legendre–Galerkin Chebyshev collocation scheme is used to deal with the resulting nonlinear equations. Secondly, the stochastic Legendre–Galerkin Chebyshev collocation scheme is developed for solving the stochastic Burgers equation; that is, the stochastic Legendre–Galerkin method is used to discrete the random variable meanwhile the nonlinear term is interpolated through the Chebyshev–Gauss points. Then a set of deterministic linear equations can be obtained, which is in contrast to the other existing methods for the stochastic Burgers equation. The mean square convergence of the former method is analyzed. Numerical experiments are performed to show the effectiveness of our two methods. Both methods provide alternative approaches to deal with the stochastic differential equations with nonlinear terms.  相似文献   

8.
提出了一种嵌入式多项式混沌展开(polynomial chaos expansion, PCE)的随机边界条件下流动与传热问题不确定性量化方法及有限元程序框架.该方法利用Karhunen-Loeve展开表达随机输入边界条件,以及嵌入式多项式混沌展开法表达输出随机场;同时利用谱分解技术将控制方程转化为一组确定性控制方程,并对每个多项式混沌进行求解得到其统计特征.与Monte-Carlo法相比,该方法能够准确高效地预测随机边界条件下流动与传热问题的不确定性特征,同时可以节省大量计算资源.  相似文献   

9.
We study linear semi-explicit stochastic operator differential algebraic equations (DAEs) for which the constraint equation is given in an explicit form. In particular, this includes the Stokes equations arising in fluid dynamics. We combine a white noise polynomial chaos expansion approach to include stochastic perturbations with deterministic regularization techniques. With this, we are able to include Gaussian noise and stochastic convolution terms as perturbations in the differential as well as in the constraint equation. By the application of the polynomial chaos expansion method, we reduce the stochastic operator DAE to an infinite system of deterministic operator DAEs for the stochastic coefficients. Since the obtained system is very sensitive to perturbations in the constraint equation, we analyze a regularized version of the system. This then allows to prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the initial stochastic operator DAE in a certain weighted space of stochastic processes.  相似文献   

10.
In this paper, stochastic properties proposed in the research of deterministic systems are associated with the topological properties in the Devaney’s definition of chaos.  相似文献   

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