煤炭城市人口——资源——经济——环境系统协调发展测度与评价

煤炭城市是由人口、资源、经济与环境四个子系统构成的复杂系统。其可持续发展依赖于各子系统的合理结构和发展模式以及子系统之间的协调程度。将协调发展思想与综合评价方法相结合，构建了煤炭城市可持续发展测度的指标体系，提出了投影寻踪与协调函数相结合的复杂系统协调发展测度方法，以典型煤炭城市某市为例，进行了子系统间协调发展的测度与评价。     

矿产资源密集型区域可持续发展模式的系统动力学仿真研究

矿产资源密集型区域经济发展与人口增长、资源消耗、环境污染和体制滞后之间的矛盾日益凸显.如何协调他们之间的关系成为区域经济可持续发展的当务之急.对区域内各子系统之间的相互关系和内部作用机制进行了分析,以黑龙江省为例构建了矿产资源密集型区域可持续发展模式的系统动力学模型并对该区域的标准发展模式、传统发展模式、准绿色发展模式和绿色发展模式进行仿真模拟.结果表明:人口和谐发展、资源高效利用、环境污染有效控制、严格实施生态制度监管以及大力加强区域间融合的绿色发展模式是当前矿产资源密集型区域可持续发展模式的最佳选择.     

基于系统动力学的我国节能环保产业政策仿真研究

我国节能环保产业处于发展的成长期,在发展中仍存在许多问题,促进节能环保产业加快发展,需要对节能环保产业发展模式进行深层次分析.运用系统动力学方法,构建节能环保产业发展系统动力学模型,并将模型分解为四个子系统,节能环保产业子系统、能源消耗与环境污染子系统、政策调控子系统和技术发展子系统.从当前节能环保产业发展现行政策状况、产业政策方案、财税政策方案和技术政策方案四个角度进行政策模拟仿真,发现调整产业政策能够有效促进我国能环保产业发展进而对我国节能环保产业发展提出意见和建议.     

煤炭资源型城市可持续发展的综合评价方法研究

"环境与发展"是21世纪时代的主题,全方位、多视角研究煤炭资源型城市的可持续发展是研究我国区域社会经济持续发展的重要内容和前提条件.提出了基于因子分析法和DEA方法相结合的资源型城市可持续发展能力的评价方法,并以鸡西市为例,选取1995到2006年作为决策单元,评价了该市12年的可持续发展状况,并用理想点法对有效年限进行排序.结果表明:2001年是个转折点,鸡西市从2002年开始各年相对前几年都有效,在DEA有效的年份中2004年排名最后,因此,要增加城市的可持续发展能力,必须突出系统性、整体性原则.     

农村劳动力资源可持续发展的层次分析

解决“三农”问题的关键是增加农民收入,而增收的主要办法,一是实现农业产业化增加农业收入;二是进行农村劳动力转移增加非农收入.大量的劳动力涌入大中城市对部分行业就业进行了关键的补偿,但同时对城市人口就业也造成了一定的压力,因此能否进行农村劳动力资源可持续的开发成为制约经济、社会、环境等协调发展的重要因素.文章根据可持续发展评估体系,把影响农村劳动力资源可持续发展的系统分为经济、社会、环境、支撑四个子系统,根据各子系统对其可持续开发的影响建立指标体系,用层次分析法分析得到各指标的权重,根据权重制定相应的农村劳动力资源可持续开发的策略.     

中国海洋可持续发展的SD模型与动态模拟

发展海洋经济,走海洋可持续发展之路,是振兴我国经济的一项举足轻重战略决策.从我国海洋的实际出发,运用系统动力学理论与方法建立了海洋可持续发展仿真模型.选择技术投资比例、单位海洋产业产值排污系数以及单位海洋产业产值资源消耗系数作为控制参量,分别取用不同的数值进行模拟.得到模拟结果表明,同时加大海洋经济中技术投资比,减少排污系数和资源消耗系数,海洋经将得到持续发展.并提出适合我国海洋可持续发展的政策建议.     

北京城市水资源供需系统研究

在研究北京市水资源供需现状的基础上,采用系统动力学方法构建了城市水资源供需模型.利用系统思考中学习型组织的信息反馈回路模式,引入基于可持续发展系统生存回路的水资源供需平衡指标,采用反映供需关系紧张的水供需一次、二次平衡作为衡量地区水危机的变量.按照人口增长与人均综合用水定额不同组合下的城市水需求总量,得到未来北京市水资源供需平衡变化的四种情境,通过动态模拟,分析不同情况下满足水需求的供应方案.结果显示,北京市现有的水资源条件与城市发展需水要求还有较大距离,应在挖掘本地水资源的基础上,依靠南水北调工程等境外调水,解决地区缺水的矛盾.     

基于SD的煤炭矿区节能减排仿真与调控

煤炭矿区在生产煤炭能源的同时,会产生大量的能耗和排放,而降低煤炭产量必然会影响矿区的经济效益.如何协调经济发展与能源消耗、污染排放之间的矛盾,是煤炭矿区亟待解决的难点问题.通过分析煤炭生产各环节节能与减排要素、煤炭矿区节能减排系统的复杂结构和系统内部的动态反馈机制,建立了煤炭矿区节能减排系统动力学模型,并对煤炭矿区不同的发展方案进行了仿真模拟.结果表明,矿区总投资、煤炭生产投资、环保投资、各种吨煤能耗量等因素在煤炭矿区节能减排系统中发挥了重要的影响作用;可以通过增加矿区总投资,优化煤炭生产投资与环保投资比例,降低吨煤能耗量来达到矿区经济与节能减排协调发展的状态.     

城市“精明增长”的数学模型研究

城市"精明增长"是为了管理城市蔓延的恶性增长状态,以建设经济繁荣、社会公平、环境可持续发展的城市为目标。在考虑城市的经济、社会、环境和人口为衡量精明增长的主要指标的情况下,为了研究城市的可持续发展,建立微分方程模型,以实际数据为依据,来研究各指标对城市精明增长的影响和对未来城市可持续发展的调控作用。     

北疆城市化发展的经济社会资源环境耦合协调关系分析

对北疆主要地区城市化发展中的经济社会资源环境四个系统的协调发展关系进行研究及预测,为区域的可持续发展奠定基础.首先,建立了区域经济社会资源环境的耦合协调度指标体系,以北疆主要的5个地区为例,评价四个系统的发展水平;其次,运用耦合协调度模型的计算方法,对北疆5个地区的经济社会资源环境的耦合协调度进行实证分析;最后,引入ARMA模型预测法,对该区5个地州的经济社会资源环境的未来耦合协调度进行预测.结果表明:北疆五个主要地区的经济和环境增长较快,且二者互不影响,社会和资源的变化趋势不显著;四大系统的耦合协调度整体呈现波动上升趋势,主要制约因素是社会保障;未来5年四大系统的发展趋势与前10年的相似,总体表现为小幅上升的发展态势.     

煤炭资源型城市生态环境状况评价与调控

目前,煤炭在我国的能源生产与消费结构中占有相当大的比重,将来一段时间也将占据主导地位.然而,在煤炭的生产、运输与消费过程中对环境造成了很大影响与破坏,首先就煤炭开发利用对所在区域生态环境的影响进行了系统分析,提出了煤炭资源型城市生态环境评价的概念、评价原则,建立了评价指标体系,应用模糊综合评价的方法建立了煤炭资源型城市生态环境评价模型,提出了煤炭资源型城市生态环境调控的具体措施.     

Urban dynamics and multiple-objective programming: A case study of Beijing

This study serves as a primary application of the integrated system dynamics and multiple-objective programming (ISDMOP) model for strategic planning of Beijing city, which is here divided into six subsystems as population, resources, energy, economy, environment and ecosystem, with the planning horizon spanning from 2003 to 2020. Comparison between the original system dynamics (ORSD) model based on the existing economic structure of Beijing and the optimized system dynamics (OPSD) model adjusted according to the solutions of the multiple-objective programming (MOP) are conducted. The developing trend of each subsystem is simulated and illuminated, based on which constructive suggestions are provided for urban strategic planning of Beijing. The ISDMOP model is proved effective for investigating urban dynamics and realizing the multiple-objective programming.     

Numerical analysis for the multi-phase flow of pulverized coal injection inside blast furnace tuyere

The pulverized coal injection (PCI) system was modified from single lance injection into double lance injection at No. 3 Blast Furnace of CSC. It is beneficial to reduce the cost of coke. However, the injected coal was found very close to the inner wall of the tuyere during the operation, such as to cause the possibility of erosion for the tuyere. In this study a three-dimensional mathematical model has been developed based on a computational fluid dynamics software PHOENICS to simulate the fluid flow phenomena inside blast furnace tuyere. The model was capable of handling steady-state, three-dimensional multi-phase flow of pulverized coal injection. The model was applied to simulate the flow patterns of the injection coal inside the tuyere with two kinds of lance design for the PCI system. The distribution of injection coal was simulated such as to estimate the possibility of erosion for the tuyere. The calculated results agreed with the operating experience of CSC plant and the optimum design of double lance was suggested. The model was also applied to simulate the oxygen concentration distribution with these different oxygen enrichments for the coal/oxygen lance system. The calculated results agreed with the experimental measurement. These test results demonstrate that the model is both reasonably reliable and efficient.     

Modelling and decision support in physiology and medicine: a methodological framework with lllustration

This paper presents a methodological framework for modelling that has found wide application in the complex domains of physiology and medicine. The processes of model validation are centrally embedded within this framework. The parallelism between modelling per se and the development of model-based decision support systems is then considered, showing that it is possible to devise a unified methodological framework which encompasses the requirements both of model validation and decision support system evaluation. The applicability of the framework is demonstrated in the validation of a mathematical model of blood glucose dynamics; and in the development and evaluation of decision support systems such as those which are aimed at addressing the problem of advising the insulin-dependent diabetic patient on the adjustment of insulin dosage     

Study on a 3-dimensional game model with delayed bounded rationality

A nonlinear dynamic triopoly game model is studied based on the theory of nonlinear dynamics and previous researches in this paper. A lagged structure is introduced to the model to study stability conditions of the Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process when players price their products with delayed bounded rationality. Numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the complexity of system evolvement and influence of the strategy of delayed bounded rationality on system stability. We find that besides the lagged structure, suitable delayed parameters are also important factors to eliminate chaos or expand the stable region of the system, and various players’ adjustment parameters have different effect on stability of the system.     

城市绿色转型效果评价研究——以安徽省淮南市为例

城市绿色转型是应对气候变化、提升城市持续竞争力的重要途径。文章在厘清绿色经济和绿色城市转型本质内涵的基础上,构建了“绿色驱动力、绿色生产力、绿色生命力”三位一体的城市绿色转型效果的综合评价指标体系,利用离差最大化法改进的优化模型来客观确定指标权重,并构建了城市绿色转型模糊综合评价模型,选取了资源型城市淮南市为研究对象进行模型验证,基于评价结果的深度分析,提出了煤炭资源型城市绿色转型与跨越发展的对策建议,研究结果能够为政府相关政策制定和调整提供相应的决策依据。     

Ergodic chaos in inventory oscillations: An example

This study reveals the dynamic structure of a nonlinear Metzlerian inventory cycle model that can generate complex dynamics. As a first step, it focuses on how the rational behavior of the supply side is responsible for the emergence of complex inventory fluctuations. To this end, the supply side is constructed on the basis of intertemporal optimization representing the short-run profit maximizing behavior of a firm. On the other hand, the demand side is constructed to be as simple as possible (i.e. the linear expenditure function). The firm is assumed to have a piecewisely flexible inventory-expected sales ratio. The resultant inventory adjustment system becomes piecewise-linear. This study demonstrates that the inventory accumulation may follow a wide range of complex dynamics including stable cycles, window phenomenon and ergodic chaos. It also shows that various types of dynamic behavior depend on the relationship between the marginal propensity to consume and marginal propensity to invest. Thus it can be concluded that the source of such a wide spectrum of complex inventory dynamics is an interaction between demand and supply.     

我国低碳经济发展机制的系统动力学建模

在分析了低碳经济系统复杂结构特征及动态反馈关系的基础上,建立了低碳经济系统动力学模型并进行了仿真模拟,研究表明:技术进步、产业调节政策对降低碳排放具有显著影响,提高能源效率是低碳发展的重要举措,制度建设是低碳发展的基础设施.从政策层面上,应通过调整能源结构,发展新能源和可再生能源;改变经济增长方式,调整产业结构,优先发展高新科技产业、服务业等第三产业;引导消费方式的改变,减少能源消耗,实现低碳发展.