中国足球甲A联赛的统计分析

本文通过对中国足球甲A联赛三年资料的初步统计分析,得到一些易见的结论;一场球赛的双方进球数服从Poisson分布,甲A联赛总体上存在非常显著的主场效应,但并不是所有球队在每年的联赛中都是这样,只有少数球队才存在统计意义上是显著的主场效应,用计算机模拟给出各名次球队得分的区间估计,并以进球数表示一支球队实力的参数,建立了一种称为特征向量法的预测方法,还依据96联赛成绩,对参赛的12支甲A球队进行了聚类分析.     

Efficiency and effectiveness of Spanish football teams: a three-stage-DEA approach

In this paper, we apply a three-stage-DEA model to the Spanish Professional Football League, which means separating the teams’ economic behaviour into three components: operating efficiency—of the offence and defence—athletic or operating effectiveness, and social effectiveness. The results showed that the technical inefficiency of the defence is greater than that of the offence, both being caused by aspects linked to the poor management of players’ abilities and by the football team’s size. Teams showed a favourable evolution of their offensive and defensive efficiency during the 2004/2005 season and to a lesser extent in the season before. The point system assigned by the professional football league regulations evaluates the teams’ athletic effectiveness, but we detected that the teams with the most experience perform athletically in a more effective manner. Their social effectiveness is strongly related to the level of play in itself and to factors linked to their PFL ranking: participation in international competitions for important football teams; or the struggle of minor football teams to stay in the first division.     

Networks metrics and ball possession in professional football

This study aimed to verify the network of interactions resulting from the collective behavior of professional football teams and the influence of ball possession. A dataset of 30 matches of one highly successful team from the Portuguese Premier League, season 2010/2011, was considered. From these 30 matches, 13,958 passes (e.g., 11,127 successfully passes and 2831 unsuccessfully passes) and 7583 collective offensive actions were analysed. The data were analysed using Node XL Template that allows to characterize networks and team activity profiles. The results showed that football players' interactions tended to occur, preferentially, during the offensive phase, wherein the network of contacts was mainly organised in the central and lateral areas of the field. We concluded that the ball possession during a football match endows the team with a larger domain in terms of game actions. Moreover, the results of this study also allow concluding that the ball possession does not significantly influence the final outcome of the game. This study has practical implications for coaches, since it provides a multidimensional analysis of the football match (e.g., networks and ball possession) and offers relevant insights on how creative and organizing individuals might act to orchestrate team strategies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 342–354, 2016     

Determining the best strategy for changing the configuration of a football team

This paper proposes a dynamic programming (DP) approach to find the optimal substitution strategy for a football match, which maximises the probability of winning or the expected number of league points, supported by real data of the English Premier League. We use a Markov process model to evaluate the offensive and defensive strengths of teams by means of maximum likelihood estimators. We develop a DP formulation to derive quantitatively the optimal substitution strategy of a team, in relation to the number required of each type of outfield player. We demonstrate how this approach may help to determine how many of each type of player should start a match and be substituted during a match. We also show how the expected league points would increase if the optimal strategy were followed.     

足球比赛的新赛制——三败赛

通过对目前采用的几种主要足球赛制的分析与比较 ,总结出目前各种赛制各自的弊端 ,在此基础上提出了一种新的赛制模型——三败赛 .通过运用概率论的知识 ,利用计算机仿真方法对三败赛赛制与原有赛制进行定量分析和比较 ,结果表明三败赛集中了分组赛、淘汰赛的优点 ,并可克服这些赛制的缺欠 ,是一种更为合理的赛制 .     

Comparing league formats with respect to match importance in Belgian football

Recently, most clubs in the highest Belgian football division have become convinced that the format of their league should be changed. Moreover, the TV station that broadcasts the league is pleading for a more attractive competition. However, the clubs have not been able to agree on a new league format, mainly because they have conflicting interests. In this paper, we compare the current league format, and three other formats that have been considered by the Royal Belgian Football Association. We simulate the course of each of these league formats, based on historical match results. We assume that the attractiveness of a format is determined by the importance of its games; our importance measure for a game is based on the number of teams for which this game can be decisive to reach a given goal. Furthermore, we provide an overview of how each league format aligns with the expectations and interests of each type of club.     

The Role of Emotions in Multi-Organizational Decision-Making

This paper addresses two questions. (i) What is the role of emotions in decision-making? (ii) Can emotions be attributed to organizations, and is their role in decisions made between organizations the same as in decisions made between individual people? The answers given to question (ii) are yes and yes. The proposed answer to question (i) is based upon a game-theoretic approach, which considers how emotions may be of strategic benefit to game players.     

Hybrid defensive resource allocations in the face of partially strategic attackers in a sequential defender–attacker game

Many models have been developed to study homeland security games between governments (defender) and terrorists (attacker, adversary, enemy), with the limiting assumption of the terrorists being rational or strategic. In this paper, we develop a novel hybrid model in which a centralized government allocates defensive resources among multiple potential targets to minimize total expected loss, in the face of a terrorist being either strategic or non-strategic. The attack probabilities of a strategic terrorist are endogenously determined in the model, while the attack probabilities of a non-strategic terrorist are exogenously provided. We study the robustness of defensive resource allocations by comparing the government’s total expected losses when: (a) the government knows the probability that the terrorist is strategic; (b) the government falsely believes that the terrorist is fully strategic, when the terrorist could be non-strategic; and (c) the government falsely believes that the terrorist is fully non-strategic, when the terrorist could be strategic. Besides providing six theorems to highlight the general results, we find that game models are generally preferred to non-game model even when the probability of a non-strategic terrorist is significantly greater than 50%. We conclude that defensive resource allocations based on game-theoretic models would not incur too much additional expected loss and thus more preferred, as compared to non-game-theoretic models.     

An agent-based model of organizational ambidexterity decisions and strategies in new product development

Organizational ambidexterity, defined as the pursuit of both exploitation and exploration, has become an important topic in the study of organizations, especially in innovation management theory. Previous literature has not focused on the strategic (game-theoretic) aspects of organizational ambidexterity or on its decision-making aspects. Little is known about how or even whether the decision to adopt ambidexterity is competitively advantageous in the presence of diverse strategies that competitors may adopt. This facet of the subject is inherently game-theoretic; the value of a decision by one firm depends in part on decisions made by other firms. This paper initiates systematic investigation of these strategic aspects, including the overall performance of available strategies. Specifically, this study examines questions of ambidexterity-related strategy performance in the context of new product development. The main contributions are (1) to introduce and make available to the research community an agent-based model and decision support system that captures many of the key aspects and tradeoffs, which have been identified in the literature, of the exploration–exploitation dilemma faced by firms in the new product development process, with a focus on organizations’ product investment decisions and (2) to report on results obtained from the model, calibrated with available data from the literature, augmented by new data collected from interviews with practitioners.     

Does playing several competitions influence a team’s league performance? Evidence from Spanish professional football

The sporting performance of professional football teams has often been assessed considering their results in the major regular competition, namely the national league. Here, we show that evaluating league performance without controlling for extra games played in other competitions might produce misleading results. Using Data Envelopment Analysis, we assess the performance of Spanish professional football teams in the League controlling for the extra games played in the King’s Cup, Champions League and UEFA Cup. Results show that assessing performance omitting extra games underestimates teams’ true performance in the League, the more extra games played leading to greater bias. Consequently, the multioutput nature of football must be considered when assessing team performance.     

Decision taking under pressure: Evidence on football manager dismissals in Argentina and their consequences

The paper focuses on dismissals of football managers and whether such decisions appear to contribute to organisational goals or else to be fruitless exercises in scapegoating. Its empirical setting is Argentina where incidence of sackings is more than one per season per club. It models 20 years of football match results and detects a tendency for a change of manager to be followed by deterioration in team performance, with adverse effects concentrated in results of matches played away. The evidence is consistent with decisions being driven by fan and media pressure rather than in realistic hope of improving the position of the club.     

On the score sheets of a round-robin football tournament

The set of (ordered) score sheets of a round-robin football tournament played between n teams together with the pointwise addition has the structure of an affine monoid. In this paper we study (using both theoretical and computational methods) the most important invariants of this monoid, namely the Hilbert basis, the multiplicity, the Hilbert series and the Hilbert function.     

Equilibrium selection under evolutionary game dynamics with optimizing behavior

The purpose of this paper is to investigate equilibrium selection in a heterogeneous population composed of both optimizing and programmed agents using an evolutionary game-theoretic framework. Under the Smith dynamic, we are able to identify a class of games in which any programmed behavior will become extinct ultimately starting from any initial state, as well as a class of games in which all programmed agents can get wiped out eventually, as long as there are not enough initially. Besides, the long-run behavior is characterized under a variety of well-behaved dynamics such as the Brown–von Neumann–Nash dynamic.     

Analysis and algorithm for the optimal investment times of new manufacturing technologies in a duopoly

On the basis of a dynamic and non-cooperative game-theoretic model, the optimal timings of investments in new manufacturing technologies (NMT) is analysed under duopolistic competition. Non-identical incumbents with time-proportional demand always wait for some delay to invest in NMT. The existence of silent timing equilibrium is addressed subsequently. We show that cost-reducing NMT diffuse over time within a duopoly. The investments in strategic NMT, however, may be distributed through time or in a “swarm”. Economic interpretations of initial options and the comparative statics presented in this paper help decision makers develop strategies and make decisions under the situation they face. Finally, a computational algorithm of optimal timings could verify this analysis and facilitate the real applications of game-theoretic models.     

Computer Forecasting of Australian Rules Football for a Daily Newspaper

An exponential smoothing technique operating on the margins of victory was used to predict the results of Australian Rules football matches for a Melbourne daily newspaper from 1981-86 and again for a competitor in 1991-92. An initial ‘quick and dirty’ program used only a factor for team ability and a common home ground advantage to predict winning margins. Probabilities of winning were accumulated to predict a final ladder, with a simulation to predict chances of teams finishing in any position. Changes to the competition forced a more complicated approach, and the current version uses several parameters which allow for ability, team/ground interaction, team interaction, and a tendency for team ability to regress towards the mean between seasons. A power method is used to place greater weight on the errors in closer matches, and errors across the win-lose boundary. While simple methods were used originally, the Hooke and Jeeves method was used in optimizing the parameters of the current model. Both the original model and the improved version performed at the level of expert tipsters.     

Complex Strategic Analysis: A Hypergame Study of the Fall of France

It is argued that a crucial element in decision-making in conflicts is the need for adequate conceptual complexity in problem formulation. This is illustrated by reference to a disastrous military failure—the fall of France in 1940. A formal model of the strategic situation is constructed using the Hypergame approach, in which the usual game-theoretic assumption that all "players" see the same "game" is discarded. Using this model, further features of the case are explored, and some general conclusions discussed. It is suggested that Hypergame analysis can be of assistance in achieving adequate levels of problem-perception in complex, conflict-prone environments, in particular by helping in the generation of multiple models.     

The computational complexity of the elimination problem in generalized sports competitions

Consider a sports competition among various teams playing against each other in pairs (matches) according to a previously determined schedule. At some stage of the competition one may ask whether a particular team still has a (theoretical) chance to win the competition. The computational complexity of this question depends on the way scores are allocated according to the outcome of a match. For competitions with at most 3 different outcomes of a match the complexity is already known. In practice there are many competitions in which more than 3 outcomes are possible. We determine the complexity of the above problem for competitions with an arbitrary number of different outcomes. Our model also includes competitions that are asymmetric in the sense that away playing teams possibly receive other scores than home playing teams.     

Social Motives and Expectations in One-Shot Asymmetric Prisoner's Dilemmas

We propose a formal-behavioral framework with 3 components: nonselfish motives, expectations about others' nonselfish motives, and a game-theoretic component. For nonselfish motives, 3 nonstandard utility models representing altruism, inequality aversion, and norms are considered. Expectations are modeled as certain versus uncertain expectations. The game-theoretic component predicts behavior of actors and actors' expectations about behaviors of others. This framework is applied to asymmetric one-shot prisoner's dilemmas; predictions are tested experimentally. Formal analyses show that asymmetry provides new predictions through which nonstandard utility-expectation models can be distinguished. Empirical tests show that the inequality aversion model does considerably worse than altruistic and normative variants. Statistical tests for own motives, expected motives, and the association between the two are provided, while accounting for decision noise.     

Optimal equilibrium barrier strategies for time-inconsistent dividend problems in discrete time

This paper studies a time-inconsistent dividend problem in discrete time with nonexponential discounting. Motivated by the decreasing impatience in behaviour economics, a general discount function is used and assumed to be log sub-additive. Using a game-theoretic approach equilibrium barrier strategies are considered. It is shown that in the case of multiple equilibria, there exists an optimal one that pointwisely dominates all the other equilibria. Case studies are conducted where there is no equilibrium, multiple equilibria, and a unique equilibrium.     

Asset pricing under ambiguous information: an empirical game-theoretic analysis

In a representative agent model, the behavior of a social system is described in terms of a single aggregate decision maker. Such models are popular in economic and finance research, largely due to their analytic tractability, but fail to account for real-world agent heterogeneity, and may ignore effects of market microstructure. Agent-based simulation models naturally incorporate agent heterogeneity, and can account for any particular market microstructure; however, such models have gained only limited acceptance by the mainstream economic research community, due to concerns over how much general insight can be gleaned from simulating a particular configuration of agent behaviors. We address such concerns by employing game-theoretic criteria in behavior selection. We present a case study investigating a recent model from the finance literature proposed by Epstein and Schneider (ES), and its ability to explain the classic equity premium puzzle in risky asset pricing. For all market configurations that we examined, ambiguity-averse pricing was played with little or no probability in equilibrium. Moreover, none of the market configurations exhibited significant equity premia. Both our use of strategic equilibrium as a market composition concept, and the actions of our simulated market microstructure contribute to removing any equity premium. These findings underscore the value of checking that results from abstract representative-agent models are supportable in a higher-fidelity model where heterogeneity and strategic interactions are taken into account.